Tarek Mansour
Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi. On 4 shows, 4 appearances, plus 1 compilation re-air not counted. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
founderexecutiveengineer@mansourtarek_ ↗LinkedIn ↗Wikipedia ↗
Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange allowing users to trade event contracts on real-world outcomes. Before co-founding Kalshi, he studied at MIT and previously worked at Goldman Sachs, Citadel, and Palantir.
4shows
4appearances
81statements
24resolved
11supported
4contradicted
46%fully supported
30said about them ↓ Everything Tarek Mansour said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Mansour: The overinflated B2B SaaS ecosystem resembles a VC Ponzi scheme
“It's just the ecosystem is very hyper overinflated through a mechanism that is not too dissimilar to Ponzi schemes.”
Mansour: Kalshi is the sole legal, regulated US election trading exchange
“So we won this month, and the cool thing now is, like, it's the first time in a hundred years that betting on the election, trading on the election is actually legal in the U.S., It's finally back to actually being legal, and this time it's actually regulated,…”
Mansour: Most data science and published health papers are "total garbage"
“One, generally speaking, don't listen to data scientists. Data science is mostly bullshit. Health papers and stuff like most of them are just total garbage.”
Mansour: Kalshi predicts daily weather better than most stations
“Like we can predict daily weather more accurately than most weather stations.”
Mansour: Kalshi's top inflation forecaster was an amateur from Kansas
“The best inflation forecaster on CalSphere over the last few years is not, none of the institutions or the, you know, the big name hedge funds, it's this guy who lives in Kansas, never traded financial markets before, just likes to read the news, and just know…”
Mansour: Gambling houses profit from losses, exchanges profit from transparency
“Gambling is this idea where the business model is, you are the house, and your revenue is your customer's losses. Like, so, and a lot of the dynamic that you describe has to be true, because your incentive is like, well, somebody's making money, I gotta stop t…”
Mansour: Prediction markets are required to accurately price complex traditional assets
“And if those dimensions, you don't have a good understanding of x one to x n you cannot get a good estimate of y, right? And so you, the paper basically says that you need infinite markets. And prediction markets are this notion of infinite markets, which is l…”
Mansour: Prediction markets are an antidote to social media polarization
“I think that we do see this a lot with also, well, there's sort of the piece where people use it and that sort of react in real time to certain things, but I think there's some degree of depolarization. And that's what Luana is alluding to. Like, and in some w…”
Mansour: Kalshi is the fastest-growing non-AI US company at scale
“Kalshi this year is at this scale, at least, you know, the, I think the fastest growing company in America outside of AI. I think Anthropik is growing faster, and I'm not sure about Merkur and Cursor, but we're, you know, growing at that sort of, at that pace,…”
Mansour: Kalshi is currently profitable
“We are at a point right now where, so we're growing incredibly fast. We are also profitable right now.”
Mansour: Kalshi lost team members twice before suing the US government
“The next day we came back, and we were like, we're gonna try again for the twenty-twenty-four election. And then we tried another year till the end of twenty-twenty-three. Then the government blocked it again. And then, so that's the second time. And then God …”
Mansour: Traditional financial markets are rigged in favor of Wall Street
“The current financial markets, they don't relate to a lot of people like, you know, trading stocks or options or futures, like people don't really understand them. And the game is sort of rigged. It's rigged on behalf of like for Wall Street against Main Stree…”
Mansour: Only 1 to 2 percent of prediction market users actively trade
“Out of every hundred prediction market users, maybe there's like one or two traders that are actually trading on the market, but the rest of the users are getting informed about the world.”
Mansour: Kalshi resolves election outcomes 5-7 hours faster than news networks
“You go on the traditional news networks and like, You don't know who won until five, 6:07 hours after Kalshi, right?”
Mansour: Sequoia and YC warned Kalshi against suing the CFTC
“When Juan and I brought it up to Alfred and from Sequoia and then YC, we're like, Hey, we're going to sue the government, our regulator. And they're like, we, it's never a good idea. It's just a bad pattern, but we took the risk”
Mansour: Prediction markets hedge organic risks unlike artificial gambling
“Like, grain prices, or hurricanes, or Brexit happening or not, or election, Trump versus Kamala winning, that's a risk that exists already, right? Like, it's not like you and I are creating this risk so that we can bet on it. This exists already, and some peop…”
Mansour: Y Combinator advertises like casinos by spotlighting outlier winners
“So how do casinos actually advertise their products? They, like, show you the one person that made 300,000 dollars in the slot machine. People get excited and everyone goes and does it. And, you know, everybody knows the odds, et cetera. YC kind of does the sa…”
Mansour: Kalshi beat Bloomberg and Economist inflation forecasts
“We have been the most accurate forecast for inflation over the last two years. Which is really hard to forecast. We're better than Bloomberg. We're better than the Economist survey.”
Mansour: Probability of Elon Musk stepping down from Tesla is 15-20%
“I think Elon leaving Tesla is pretty underpriced. Or like stepping down and having someone run it. Like it says, you know, I mean, now that this year is close to done, but two percent chance, like one in 50, I don't know... I think the odds are more closer to …”
Mansour: Goldman sold indirect Brexit option bundles at 40% premiums
“We did these things in 2016 where people wanted to hedge themselves against Brexit or get exposure to Brexit. And what we would do is like, we would take a bunch of option swaps, put them in one bundle and then sell it to investors and sell it as a good proxy …”
Mansour: Kalshi logged $10.4B in trading volume in February
“So, so volume in February was 10.4 billion.”
Mansour: Banning prediction markets heightens risks by driving trading offshore
“Because if you ban it,
You're actually heightening the risks that you're trying to prevent, because now that activity is going offshore, right?
Like, and where you cannot monitor it or police it or do anything to protect it.”
Mansour: Kalshi's election growth was prediction markets' ChatGPT moment
“Kind of what happened with Kalshi in the election was a bit of a Chad GPT moment for our industry.”
The other half of the tape: Tarek Mansour's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 30 times in 12 episodes across the shows. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Molly O'Shea 11Alex Bouaziz 9Alex Immerman 5Harry Stebbings 3Zach Dell 1Chris Josephs 1
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
Sourcery 19
20VC 11
2026 8 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
- Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- How He Turned a Blood Test Startup Into $7B OS for Healthcare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- The Public Venture Fund That 9x’d in 3 Days (Fundrise VCX) · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- Deel Hits $1.4B+ in ARR | CEO Alex Bouaziz Shares Growth Playbook · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- every mention in 2026, scene by scene →
2025 17 mentions in 6 episodes 3 per episode
- Deel CEO, Alex Bouaziz on Raising $300M+ at a $17BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Alfred Lin, Inside Sequoia: Launching $200M Seed Fund & $750M Venture Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- Understanding OpenAI’s $500B Valuation · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- Inside the $350M Pelosi Stock Tracker · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- How Kalshi Built a $2 Billion Prediction Market · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- Base Power Raises $1B led by Addition, with Trust Ventures, Lightspeed, a16z, Altimeter, Elad Gil · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
- every mention in 2025, scene by scene →
2023 4 mentions in 1 episode
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Tarek's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20VCLEDGER | Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi | 2 +1 | 44 | 29% 2/7 | full record on 20VC → |
| SOURCERYLEDGER | Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi | 0 | 0 | 38% 3/8 | full record on Sourcery → |
 NO PRIORSLEDGER | Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi | 1 | 22 | 40% 2/5 | full record on No Priors → |
 CHEEKY PINTLEDGER | Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi | 1 | 15 | 100% 4/4 | full record on Cheeky Pint → |