Opinion certainty 4/5 debate potential 4/5

Mansour: Most data science and published health papers are "total garbage"

Tarek Mansour · No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour · Oct 31, 2024 · at 15:04

Tarek Mansour is the CEO of Kalshi. He discusses intuitive human risk perception compared to data modeling during events like COVID-19.

0:00 / 0:06exact quote · 6.6s
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“One, generally speaking, don't listen to data scientists. Data science is mostly bullshit. Health papers and stuff like most of them are just total garbage.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Tarek Mansour

Assertion Partly supported
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Tarek Mansour Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 6:50 No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Assertion Not checkable as stated
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Tarek Mansour Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 28:01 No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Disclosure
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“When Juan and I brought it up to Alfred and from Sequoia and then YC, we're like, Hey, we're going to sue the government, our regulator. And they're like, we, it's never a good idea. It's just a bad pattern, but we took the risk”
Tarek Mansour Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 6:05 No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Insight
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Tarek Mansour Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 11:21 No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Insight
Mansour: Y Combinator advertises like casinos by spotlighting outlier winners
“So how do casinos actually advertise their products? They, like, show you the one person that made 300,000 dollars in the slot machine. People get excited and everyone goes and does it. And, you know, everybody knows the odds, et cetera. YC kind of does the sa…”
Tarek Mansour Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 16:01 No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Assertion Supported
Mansour: Kalshi beat Bloomberg and Economist inflation forecasts
“We have been the most accurate forecast for inflation over the last two years. Which is really hard to forecast. We're better than Bloomberg. We're better than the Economist survey.”
Tarek Mansour Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 27:34 No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
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