Mansour: Kalshi predicts daily weather better than most stations
Tarek Mansour · No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour · Oct 31, 2024 · at 28:01
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour asserts that financial event contracts aggregate data effectively enough to outperform traditional weather forecasts.
0:00 / 0:03exact quote · 4.0s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“Like we can predict daily weather more accurately than most weather stations.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Tarek Mansour
Mansour: Kalshi is the sole legal, regulated US election trading exchange
“So we won this month, and the cool thing now is, like, it's the first time in a hundred years that betting on the election, trading on the election is actually legal in the U.S., It's finally back to actually being legal, and this time it's actually regulated,…”
Mansour: Most data science and published health papers are "total garbage"
“One, generally speaking, don't listen to data scientists. Data science is mostly bullshit. Health papers and stuff like most of them are just total garbage.”
Mansour: Sequoia and YC warned Kalshi against suing the CFTC
“When Juan and I brought it up to Alfred and from Sequoia and then YC, we're like, Hey, we're going to sue the government, our regulator. And they're like, we, it's never a good idea. It's just a bad pattern, but we took the risk”
Mansour: Prediction markets hedge organic risks unlike artificial gambling
“Like, grain prices, or hurricanes, or Brexit happening or not, or election, Trump versus Kamala winning, that's a risk that exists already, right? Like, it's not like you and I are creating this risk so that we can bet on it. This exists already, and some peop…”
Mansour: Y Combinator advertises like casinos by spotlighting outlier winners
“So how do casinos actually advertise their products? They, like, show you the one person that made 300,000 dollars in the slot machine. People get excited and everyone goes and does it. And, you know, everybody knows the odds, et cetera. YC kind of does the sa…”