Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi and a Y Combinator alumnus, discusses the psychological mechanisms driving entrepreneurs and gamblers to take large risks.
“So how do casinos actually advertise their products? They, like, show you the one person that made 300,000 dollars in the slot machine. People get excited and everyone goes and does it. And, you know, everybody knows the odds, et cetera. YC kind of does the same thing if you think about it. Like, you know, we, they show like Airbnb and Coinbase and then you have like a flock of people basically going in to start a company.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
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More from Tarek Mansour
AssertionPartly supported
Mansour: Kalshi is the sole legal, regulated US election trading exchange
“So we won this month, and the cool thing now is, like, it's the first time in a hundred years that betting on the election, trading on the election is actually legal in the U.S., It's finally back to actually being legal, and this time it's actually regulated,…”
Tarek MansourOct 31, 2024▶ 6:50No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Opinion
Mansour: Most data science and published health papers are "total garbage"
“One, generally speaking, don't listen to data scientists. Data science is mostly bullshit. Health papers and stuff like most of them are just total garbage.”
Tarek MansourOct 31, 2024▶ 15:04No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
AssertionNot checkable as stated
Mansour: Kalshi predicts daily weather better than most stations
“Like we can predict daily weather more accurately than most weather stations.”
Tarek MansourOct 31, 2024▶ 28:01No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Disclosure
Mansour: Sequoia and YC warned Kalshi against suing the CFTC
“When Juan and I brought it up to Alfred and from Sequoia and then YC, we're like, Hey, we're going to sue the government, our regulator. And they're like, we, it's never a good idea. It's just a bad pattern, but we took the risk”
Tarek MansourOct 31, 2024▶ 6:05No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
“Like, grain prices, or hurricanes, or Brexit happening or not, or election, Trump versus Kamala winning, that's a risk that exists already, right? Like, it's not like you and I are creating this risk so that we can bet on it. This exists already, and some peop…”
Tarek MansourOct 31, 2024▶ 11:21No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
AssertionSupported
Mansour: Kalshi beat Bloomberg and Economist inflation forecasts
“We have been the most accurate forecast for inflation over the last two years. Which is really hard to forecast. We're better than Bloomberg. We're better than the Economist survey.”
Tarek MansourOct 31, 2024▶ 27:34No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
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