Everything Packy McCormick said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
McCormick: Cancer is probably gone in 10 years
“I think a hot take would be cancer is probably gone in 10 years, I think is one of my favorite hot takes. There's just so many different attacks on it, and CAR T cell therapies are doing well, and it's a matter of kind of scaling, scaling those out.”
McCormick: Most fast-growing AI software startups will flatten and fail to IPO
“By choosing to, like, not play in this space, I'm definitely missing a trillion dollar company or two, but I think for the most part, like, I think there's gonna be, like, a lot of these types of things happening, or even, like, these types of curves, where th…”
McCormick: AI will become 'super SaaS' rather than godlike AGI
“I called it super sass in, in that like 20, 25 prediction. And I think it is like, I think it's really amazing and like in no way godlike. And it's just like, I feel like I'm being psyopped whenever people are like, oh my God, this is like, this is, this chang…”
McCormick: Frontier AI will settle into an oligopoly among 3-4 labs
“A lot of the VC firms are getting in multiple companies because they don't think it's going to be winner-take-all anymore. They think it's going to be much more oligopolistic for the long term, and there will be competition between the major three or four labs…”
McCormick: AI labs will become profitable hyperscalers like cloud
“It seems like the labs will Turn into sort of new hyperscalers. There will be you know, increased competition, but still very, very good businesses a la cloud.”
McCormick: 2015 New Yorker Profile Marked End of Free-Speech Journalism
“We talked about this great, great tad friend profile in the New Yorker in 2015 that I referenced in the piece that, that I wrote on a 16 Z this past week saying that that kind of kicked off or was the last kind of point in an era where journalism cared about F…”
McCormick: Fuse recruited the former number two Iranian nuclear scientist
“The number of two, kind of, nuclear scientists in, in Iran who came over here to, kind of, work on, on our side here, and then just, like, everybody that I met who was, like, you know, working on the machines, like top to bottom, just like an unbelievably cool…”
McCormick: AI Will Produce a Couple of $10T Companies
“There's probably going to be like a couple of 10 trillion dollar AI companies that are going to pay for the whole thing.”
McCormick: Humanoid Robotics Will Erode Margins Into Consumer Surplus
“Humanoids scare the hell out of me as an investor, because it's like this really impossibly hard thing to do with a lot of really, really smart people working on it, where like, if you pull off this impossible thing, then you're competing against these 10 othe…”
McCormick: Large VC funds will survive while emerging funds fail
“I think it's like a really, I think like the big funds are actually super well positioned and all, there's going to be a lot of these like emerging ish funds who try to compete who I just think it kind of like wiped out.”
McCormick: Any strategic crypto reserve holding Cardano is a joke
“Any strategic reserve that has Cardano in it is just, it's a joke, right?”
McCormick: Literary nonfiction and deep journalism are best for early-stage underwriting
“That, like, Jim Simons at Rentac versus, like, Robert Carroll, like, who would be a better earlier stage, early stage investor? And I think it's actually, like, Robert Carroll. Like, I think, like, literary nonfiction done really, really well, or journalism do…”
McCormick: YC 'Request for Startups' Prompts Rarely Lead to Great Companies
“Like when YC puts out the request for startups, I'm like, I can't imagine that anything good is going to be built against these categories starting now because you've read the YC request for startups.”
McCormick: Anduril's early round was crowded at a $100M valuation
“But that, like, early story that, like, nobody wanted to touch it was actually, like, a pretty crowded round at a hundred million dollar valuation.”
McCormick: DeepSeek represents doing the same thing cheaper, not a qualitative leap
“My DeepSeek point is that, like, This, like, crack team that figured out all these algorithms, breakthroughs, and whatever, essentially just figured out how to do the same thing cheaper. Like, there hasn't been any leap that I've seen that I've been like, yeah…”
McCormick: I likely would have written a positive sponsored post on Theranos
“One of the tests that I always run for myself, and I probably actually would have failed this test, is if Theranos had come to me on a sponsored post, you know, however many years ago, chances are, frankly, I would have written something positive on Theranos b…”
McCormick: Independent creator-investors lose value when joining traditional venture firms
“As soon as I go in-house somewhere, Like I lose half of my value or, you know, X percent of my value as soon as I go in-house somewhere. And that is kind of one, even though, you know, I do do sponsored posts and all of that, there is like this independent voi…”
McCormick: AI labs obsess over competitor compute despite public denials
“And this is really, really relevant to the AI lab discussion because you can tell that even though all of the leaders of the AI lab say, I don't think about the competition. I don't talk about the competition. I'll use general terms. They're all obsessed with …”
McCormick: OpenAI and Anthropic are the most unprofitable companies in history
“These are the most unprofitable companies in human history, I think.”
McCormick: OpenAI recouped all GPT-4 training costs and more
“GPT four is the really instructive is the really instructive example because I believe that model costs like a hundred million dollars to train, and it was really expensive at the time, but then very quickly they were on a multi-billion dollar run rate, and it…”
McCormick: Models mastering complex tax and legal nuances is six months away
“This is like a six month away thing.”
McCormick: Substack will grow 10x larger than legacy media companies
“You can see a world where, because it attracts kind of all of the best writers from all of these different places who can build their own businesses, Substack becomes 10 times larger than any of the media organizations that it replaces.”
McCormick: Fuse is already generating revenue by selling radiation
“The big difference I would say with Fuse and anybody else is they're already making revenue and that they're not going straight shot for commercial fusion power, but they're selling radiation kind of on the way up towards or down towards, depending on how you …”
McCormick: Claude's Writing Feedback Is Bad, Regresses Drafts Toward Mediocrity
“I will take my, if I'm, like, stuck in writing an essay, I'll, like, take the draft, I'll put it in Claude and ask for feedback, and, like, the feedback is bad, and it always, like, tries to move me more towards average, and I ignore it, but, like, I just have…”