Gavin Baker
Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management. On 6 shows, 19 appearances, plus 1 compilation re-air not counted. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
investorfounderexecutive@GavinSBaker ↗LinkedIn ↗gavinbaker.net ↗
Gavin Baker is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Atreides Management, a crossover fund he founded in 2019. He previously spent 18 years at Fidelity Investments, where he managed the Fidelity OTC Fund.
6shows
19appearances
422statements
82resolved
40supported
17contradicted
49%fully supported
85said about them ↓ Everything Gavin Baker said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today
“I think Anthropic is worth three trillion dollars today, and it's very important.”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
Baker: Open-Source AI Frontier Consists of Chinese Models Using Stolen US Tokens
“Open source frontier, which today consists of, you know, Chinese models with stolen American tokens.”
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
CCP Launders Anti-Data Center Campaigns Through TikTok, Asserts Gavin Baker
“Like there is an organized CCP funded campaign. I think against data centers here in America. Like I think a lot of it gets laundered through TikTok and it's just tragic because the other thing that's happening is this is re-industrializing America.”
Starship Reusability Drops Orbital Compute Launch Costs Under $1B per Gigawatt
“What you have to compare it to is the cost of launch, and with Starship reusability, that goes to under a billion, so the economics just instantly flip.”
Musk and Huang Co-Designed an Orbital NVIDIA Rubin Rack for 2027
“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”
Microsoft Failed to Build Competitive In-House Frontier AI Models
“They clearly tried to make a frontier model. They failed. You know, Satya said, we're gonna have our own models that are very competitive. Like, I think he said that 18 months ago. They don't have their own models that are competitive.”
Baker: Banning open-source AI means losing the AI race to China
“If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that Simple.”
Baker: The overwhelming majority of AI tokens are profitable
“The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone. And I think the Anthropic S-one is kind of going to make that clear.”
Baker: Anthropic Is Almost Certainly Generating Significant Free Cash Flow
“And Anthropik continues to grow really strongly and is almost certainly pumping out significant amounts of free cash flow.”
Baker: Anthropic would have dominated AI race with OpenAI's compute aggression
“Anthropic, if they had been as aggressive on compute as OpenAI had been, they would have run away with it.”
Baker: Behind-the-meter data center deals generally lower local electricity prices
“And the reality is, like, given the deals that are being cut now, when a data center goes in, electricity prices actually generally go down for everyone around there because of behind the meter deals.”
Baker: Republican DAs reduce young Black male all-cause mortality by 7%
“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”
Gavin Baker: America is Earth's only vaguely successful multicultural society
“America is awesome, and we're the only vaguely successful multicultural society on planet Earth.”
Baker: NVIDIA can become a top cloud computing company faster than expected
“I think Nvidia can join the frontier and become one of the world's largest cloud computing companies. Much faster than people think.”
Baker: A CCP-funded campaign may be targeting US AI and data centers
“It is starting to feel or seem like there may be a CCP funded campaign against AI and data centers in America.”
Baker: Competitors withhold custom AI ASICs from benchmarks because they would lose
“These other ASICs. . Are not being submitted for benchmarks. They're not in the CB analysis inference max. They're not in MLperf. I think the reason they're not being submitted is they will lose.”
Gavin Baker: Older GPUs have a useful life of 10 to 15 years
“All GPUs use Grok or Cerebrus for decode, and then those older GPUs, they have a useful life for 10 or 15 years, and this means that you can finance GPUs.”
Gavin Baker: Selling deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China delays Chinese semiconductor independence
“I think selling in deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China. Lowers the odds of them developing their own alternative ecosystem, which would be a lot power hungrier because you use optical, you bring in optical a lot earlier for scale up fabrics.”
Baker: Anthropic Added $11 Billion ARR in One Month
“And what I just mean by that is in Anthropik, they added eleven billion dollars of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that The SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between five and 10 trillion dollars of value. And I would say argua…”
The other half of the tape: Gavin Baker's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 80 times in 46 episodes across the shows. 5 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Jason Calacanis 20John Coogan 8Ted Seides 7Jordi Hays 7Brad Gerstner 6Dan Loeb 4Chamath Palihapitiya 4Thomas Laffont 2
Statements about Gavin Baker, by other people (5)
Jason Calacanis predicts all large language models will become open-source commodities
“Gavin Baker came on this podcast and said it's the fastest deprecating asset in the world was a large language model. He's been proven right. They're not worth anything. They're all going to be open source. They're all going to be commoditized, and that's for …”
Baker: Larry Page willing to risk Google bankruptcy to win AI race
“He said, Larry Page has said internally at Google many times, I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. Everybody is focused on ROI, but the people making the decisions are not basically saying that scale, it's all about scale.”
Laffont: More tech companies are valued over $1B privately than publicly
“There's more private companies in tech That are worth more than a billion than public ones.”
Loeb: Great Analysts Today Must Master Industry Nuances and Technology
“I think now it's somebody who's like a Gavin Baker type, a junior Gavin Baker, somebody who understands a company or understands an industry and understands the nuances of a technology.”
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
All-In 29
TBPN 25
BG2 Pod 9
Capital Allocators 8
Invest Like the Best 6
the a16z Podcast 3
2026 39 mentions in 18 episodes 2 per episode
- Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
- Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy · Invest Like The Best
- Nvidia Earnings, Paramount Emerges Victorious, Block Layoffs | Diet TBPN
- Nvidia CRUSHES Earnings. So Why Did the Stock Crash?
- OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
- All-In's 2026 Predictions
- U.S. Bans New Chinese Humanoids, Zuck’s Op-Ed, eBay's $56M Lawsuit | Diet TBPN
- Blue Origin Raises Capital, Getty-Shutterstock Deal Dies, GPT-5.6 Launches Tomorrow | Diet TBPN
- 10 more episodes that year, every mention in 2026 →
2025 24 mentions in 14 episodes 2 per episode
- Ted on Alt Goes Mainstream (EP.458)
- Project Stargate, The T Word, Ramp Treasury, Audience Ad Reads, See You at Davos
- Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
- NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
- Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal
- The World’s Fastest Growing Defense Company, OpenAI’s Code Red, Google Strikes Back | Diet TBPN
- Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz on the State of AI
- 6 more episodes that year, every mention in 2025 →
2024 11 mentions in 9 episodes 1 per episode
- AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Year in Review 2024 (EP.424)
- Kristof Gleich – Boutique Managers and Active ETFs at Harbor Capital (EP.411)
- Stephen Nesbitt – Innovation in Private Markets for RIAs (EP.410)
- Thomas Laffont | All-In Summit 2024
- In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
- 1 more episode that year, every mention in 2024 →
2022 5 mentions in 4 episodes 1 per episode
- E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
- E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
- E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
- E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
- every mention in 2022, scene by scene →
2021 1 mention in 1 episode
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Gavin's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVEST LIKE THE BESTLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 3 | 153 | 56% 15/27 | full record on Invest Like the Best → |
| ALL-INLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 11 | 146 | 46% 18/39 | full record on All-In → |
| a16zLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 2 | 44 | 60% 3/5 | full record on the a16z Podcast → |
| CAPITAL ALLOCATORSLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 1 | 40 | 0% 0/2 | full record on Capital Allocators → |
| TBPNLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 1 +1 | 22 | 75% 3/4 | full record on TBPN → |
| BG2LEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 1 | 17 | 20% 1/5 | full record on BG2 Pod → |