The Calls, every show
Dated predictions on 44 shows and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
shows 
every show 44 of 44
Everyone Jason Lemkin (127)Chamath Palihapitiya (119)Rory O'Driscoll (115)Jason Calacanis (78)David Sacks (69)David Friedberg (63)Harry Stebbings (47)David Senra (45)Brad Gerstner (43)Alex Kantrowitz (38)John Coogan (37)Shaan Puri (36)
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Next up (42)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Friedberg predicts the Russia-Ukraine war will settle in 2026
“Russia, Ukraine. I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year, economic and other political factors, but I do think it's going to settle out this year, and it's going to bring a bit mor…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
183 days left 2027-03-15
Friedberg: Skin-cell IVF will allow people to produce offspring at any age
“So in the next couple of years, there's, you know, there's a few little technical breakthroughs that are happening right now that will enable this, where fertility clinics may end up just taking a little bit of your skin cell, creating stem cells, creating egg…”
288 days left 2027-06-28
686 days left 2028-07-30
Friedberg: Converting copyrighted data into AI knowledge will be upheld as fair use
“I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end …”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Friedberg: Socialist candidate like AOC will likely emerge for Democrats in 2028
“I think there's a, as I've talked about many, many times, a very high probability that someone who's a little bit more socialist aligned is going to end up being kind of thrust forward here, and I think AOC fits the bill there.”
860 days left 2029-01-20
Friedberg: Democratic wins in 2028 will trigger federal pension bailouts
“If you end up with a Democrat controlled house and a Democrat president, In 20, 28, you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments”
880 days left 2029-02-09
Friedberg: Apple will reach $100B in Vision Pro sales within five years
“I think they're going to sell a hundred billion dollars of Apple vision pros, not this version, but this version plus the next version probably over the next. I would guess for them to get to a hundred billion in sales, it'll take them less than five years.”
1194 days left 2029-12-20
David Friedberg predicts non-developers will build and deploy software via chat within five years
“And in five years, just like we're all going to, and we're all using a chat like interfaces more frequently. You go to your chat like interface and eventually you realize you can ask it to build some tool for you that does something. And it renders the tool, a…”
1377 days left 2030-06-21
Friedberg: Microsoft faces core application revenue decline within next five years
“I do think that there's a real probability of revenue decline in the next five years. So if you look at the enterprise install base, I think that cloud gets competed away. So I do think like on the application software layer, they're going to have a really har…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1608 days left 2031-02-07
Friedberg: Software market cap will be 4x to 10x higher in 5 years
“I think the value creation potential in front of us is so significant that I would say that you could probably take the sum of the market cap of all the software companies today and have a pretty good bet that everything will be four to 10 X higher five years …”
1663 days left 2031-04-03
1746 days left 2031-06-25
Friedberg: Desktop 'vaccine printers' will download code to print local vaccines
“Well, we are going to enter a stage here in the next decade where we will have vaccine printers around the world. There are going to be small bioreactors. You're going to be able to effectively ship code to them. They're going to print vaccines.”
1933 days left 2031-12-29
2231 days left 2032-10-22
2301 days left 2032-12-31
2301 days left 2032-12-31
2301 days left 2032-12-31
Friedberg: Social Security and state defaults will force bailouts by 2032
“Then the next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 20 32. And that's really where social security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. And I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We're not going to be abl…”
2339 days left 2033-02-07
2936 days left 2034-09-27
Friedberg: Mobile handsets will no longer exist in ten years
“I don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around in 10 years. I don't think we're going to have this, like, phone in our pocket that we're like, Pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface is goi…”
2947 days left 2034-10-08
3007 days left 2034-12-07
3560 days left 2036-06-12
3812 days left 2037-02-19
Friedberg: Autologous induced stem cell therapy is about 15 years away
“We can actually do stem cells from your body, and that's like, you know, 15 years out is autologous induced stem cell therapy, where you actually make your own stem cells, and then give yourself all sorts of therapies, not just bone marrow transplants, but you…”
4003 days left 2037-08-29
4057 days left 2037-10-22
4952 days left 2040-04-04
5002 days left 2040-05-24
5883 days left 2042-10-22
5999 days left 2043-02-15
6218 days left 2043-09-22
Friedberg: 100% chance existing fusion portfolio yields low-cost power in 20 years
“I think there's a hundred percent chance that the portfolio of 70 fusion companies that exist today that are pursuing this technology will succeed. And that we will get low cost power in the next 20 years at scale, right?”
7470 days left 2047-02-25
Friedberg: China's nuclear expansion will drop industrial energy costs below 5 cents
“And so as China builds out a 140 nuclear plants here over the next two to three decades, they're going to see their energy cost decline from about nine cents for industrial use, potentially, you know, into the sub five cent per kilowatt hour range, which makes…”
8510 days left 2049-12-31
8511 days left 2050-01-01
Friedberg predicts most goods will use biological manufacturing by 2050
“I think by twenty-fifty, you know, we should see most of our goods that are manufactured rather than being made in the traditional sense, which is basically old technology scaled up which is what the industrial revolution did but really shift to a new model of…”
9150 days left 2051-10-02
9164 days left 2051-10-16
Friedberg: Quantum computing will enable deterministic molecular modeling within 30 years
“Using quantum computing in the next 30 years, hopefully, we'll be able to deterministically model these behaviors on a molecular and atomic level, and as a result, kind of build new systems to make things and that'll be an incredible kind of toolkit for humans…”
12528 days left 2060-12-31
Friedberg: Quantum computers won't crack RSA-2048 encryption before 2040
“The estimate currently by some researchers is that this there's a less than five percent chance this happens before the year 2040. So we're talking somewhere between the year 2040 and the 2060. When we get a quantum computer that has enough logical qubits to b…”
27137 days left 2100-12-31
Friedberg: Photon-based computing will replace electron-based computing by 2100
“I will say, I have a belief that I think electron-based computing is going to go by the wayside by the end of the century and be replaced with Photon-based computing, and I think we're going to move most of what we do today with copper and semiconducting mater…”
34731 days left 2121-10-16
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Friedberg: Kevin Warsh will modernize Fed data to real-time digital systems
“You could probably make a bet or an investment on the idea that Kevin Warsh will lead the Fed to a new digital, better data system, more streamlined, more frequent, better data.”
Friedberg: Advanced AI models will ultimately run locally on iPhones
“Ultimately these things end up on the iPhone running locally, and you don't need to go to the cloud.”
Friedberg predicts economic growth will produce the world's first trillionaire
“And I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to hundred billionaires to the world's first trillionaire.”
Friedberg: Developers will create AI models tailored to specific religious beliefs
“I do think we'll end up seeing religious AI. I think we'll see AI that's Cue into people's religious ways”
Friedberg predicts Israel will take further military action against Iran
“I can tell you, I don't think the Israelis are gonna sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA, And I think that they've taken their first shot and I …”
Friedberg: China will tariff US agriculture, requiring massive farm bailouts
“There will be, as there was in the first Trump presidency, very likely very large transfer payments made to farmers, because China is very likely going to tariff imports or stop making Import purchases altogether”
Friedberg: Microplastics problem will trigger FDA and EPA regulatory reviews
“So the microplastic problem is something that will certainly trigger A bunch of FDA review, a bunch of EPA review.”
Friedberg: Removing ship sulfur emissions doubles ocean warming rate
“By removing sulfur dioxide, we are now going to see a doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans in the twenty-twenties and going forward.”
Friedberg: Europe's $30B ITER fusion system will be online by 2030
“And by the way, the biggest funding is happening in ITER, which is the largest construction project in Europe. And this is a thirty billion dollar Production-scale fusion demonstration system that should be online by the end of the twenty-twenties.”
Friedberg: Energy monetization ramp-up won't cover US deficit within 4 years
“But I'm not sure that the ramp up is gonna be fast enough to make up for the deficit over the next four years.”
Friedberg: Texas and other states will follow Florida's cultivated meat ban
“The problem is now that Florida's done this, I guarantee you're gonna see Texas, which is a huge ranching state, And many other states step up to do it.”
Friedberg: Trump's $5M Gold Card program will max out at 10,000 buyers
“I think there's probably 10,000 max buyers of this thing, is my answer.”
Friedberg: Expect a federal preemption challenge against California's EV mandate
“Well, this is where there'll be a federal preemption challenge, I think, of California.”
Friedberg: 100-year storms will happen every two to three years
“And those continuously warmer oceans means that we're going to have what used to be called a one in 500 year storm, which is what Asheville is being termed at one in 500 year. These sorts of storm events can happen every couple years. And we're now looking at …”
Friedberg: China will not force TikTok to shut down
“I don't agree that the Chinese government will shut it down.”
Friedberg: Global helium supply shock incoming as Qatari exports halt
“A third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar is not making it out. And so we're now going to have a helium supply shock that's going to affect the world.”
Friedberg: US is highly unlikely to send military forces to Ukraine
“I think to Sax's point, it's highly unlikely we're gonna end up sending military.”
Friedberg: California wealth tax initiative will not make the ballot
“I don't think it's gonna make the ballot. I mean, look, I think it's not, I'm not saying a hundred percent, I'm saying slight overweight, but it's not gonna get there.”
Friedberg: Prompt-generated custom AI video games are 3-4 years away
“And then the more exciting one, I think, is when do we all get to make our own AI video game? Where we instruct the video game platform, what world we want to live in. I don't think that's happening for the next three or four years.”
Friedberg: Huawei will challenge Nvidia in 2026 using undisclosed lithography tech
“My early prediction for twenty-twenty-six is Huawei, where I think that there's lithography technology, that exists in China that is not publicly discussed, that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China.”
Friedberg: Huawei will deploy undisclosed lithography to rival top chips by 2026
“My early prediction for 20, 26 is Huawei where I think that there's a lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed. That is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China. And Huawei can …”
Friedberg: Omicron variant will spread globally very fast
“One thing that seems pretty certain, this variant is going to be everywhere fast, like it is so transmissible by some estimates.”
Friedberg: COVID-19 will become seasonal like flu and won't be eradicated
“It'll be a seasonal disease, and it'll, it'll, it'll be something like the flu in terms of how it cycles each year. And it seems unlikely that it's going to be eradicated through vaccination.”