The Calls, every show
Dated predictions on 44 shows and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
shows 
every show 44 of 44
Everyone Jason Lemkin (127)Chamath Palihapitiya (119)Rory O'Driscoll (115)Jason Calacanis (78)David Sacks (69)David Friedberg (63)Harry Stebbings (47)David Senra (45)Brad Gerstner (43)Alex Kantrowitz (38)John Coogan (37)Shaan Puri (36)
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Next up (41)
13 days left 2026-09-26
47 days left 2026-10-30
76 days left 2026-11-28
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will not surpass an $800B valuation by late 2026
“Under. I'll tell you what I'm doing mentally. I'm just, I mean, there's no logic. I'm just looking at the step ups in the rounds as you'd expect are getting smaller, right? You know, you get two or five X and then you have, you go from 80 to one 50, which is a…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year
“I mean, statistically, more than 50%, yes, because in a world where this doesn't get solved for four or five months, there's so many other problems that our heads are gonna hurt, right? So you have to say, if a problem, in a world where it does get solved, the…”
215 days left 2027-04-16
O'Driscoll: Tech giants won't cut AI spending in 2026, keeping Nvidia sold out
“No one's going to blink on their investments for twenty-twenty-six. You actually know the next four quarters of NVIDIA announcement. You know the next four quarters of every one of the infrastructure, which is every single thing we can make. If you can count t…”
237 days left 2027-05-08
237 days left 2027-05-08
O'Driscoll: AI markets will consolidate into 3-4 dominant players
“I think that what a successful set of products at AI starts to gel over the next couple of years, and the people who are in the lead at that point in time get a similar ten-year run to, you know, the ten-year runs you and I both benefited from in SaaS, Jason, …”
264 days left 2027-06-04
O'Driscoll: Current frontier AI models will be 5x-10x cheaper in a year
“The frontier models aren't getting cheaper. I want to be clear on that. They're getting actually slightly more expensive, but the model that is frontier today will in a year be five to 10 X cheaper because it won't be the frontier model anymore.”
292 days left 2027-07-02
412 days left 2027-10-30
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will reach a $1 trillion valuation in two years
“On the current trajectory, maybe all I can answer is on the current trajectory and without the euphoria Jason mentioned, it's probably two years because, you know, you do get some attenuation of growth at scale and, you know, at the current thing that, I mean,…”
426 days left 2027-11-13
O'Driscoll: Palantir and AI CapEx Will Face a Major Correction Within Two Years
“I think, Michael, it's very hard to imagine a company trading north of a 110, 120 times revenues like Palantir, growing at 50 or 60% last quarter. Great. Amazing quarter. Kicking off cash. It's very hard not to imagine the next two years that doesn't have a si…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
503 days left 2028-01-29
O'Driscoll: AI CapEx spend won't pull back in the next 12-24 months
“So I think it's highly unlikely that you know, this is not going to be the year when people get terrified and say, I'm not going to do it. At some point, I think they will, because I think we probably are over-investing at some level, but right now, people are…”
524 days left 2028-02-19
O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI spending will surge for two years before retrenchment
“My gut would be people will overbet, overinvest, and you will have a retrenchment period, you know, two plus years from now, but I think right now you're just looking at two years where, you know, just as the hyperscaler said two years ago, we're going to do t…”
679 days left 2028-07-23
995 days left 2029-06-04
Rory O'Driscoll: AI will not cause mass white-collar unemployment in 3 years
“And we've grown to accept that, that, you know, we're all here in the Valley with a plan. To automate white collar work such that there's going to be mass unemployment, according to these folks who are totally wrong, in my opinion, in three years, and all the …”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1206 days left 2030-01-01
1347 days left 2030-05-22
1354 days left 2030-05-29
O'Driscoll: OpenAI's hardware effort will fizzle within three to five years
“And then my predict, my guess is statistically the likely outcome just based on the priors of the other companies in the space is three, five years later, it turns into a fizzle. It was, it wasn't product. It didn't pan out”
1410 days left 2030-07-24
1431 days left 2030-08-14
1438 days left 2030-08-21
1620 days left 2031-02-19
O'Driscoll: SaaS companies ignoring AI will see multiples fall to 4x-5x
“If you don't get on top of this soon, That 10 X revenues is going to go on a five and four and where the other seven percent growth was are. Fast forward five years, there's really only one or two stories. They get on top of this, they get a third market share…”
1725 days left 2031-06-04
1739 days left 2031-06-18
O'Driscoll: AI frontier market will consolidate into 2-3 US players
“Fast forward five years, you know, unless the U.S. Is ludicrously obnoxious in its sovereignty acts, it should be a small oligopoly like Cloud of two to three players in the U.S. With some kind of affiliations in Europe, and that is the likely structure of the…”
1760 days left 2031-07-09
O'Driscoll: AI Will Not Replace 50% of White-Collar Jobs in 5 Years
“I mean, look, in five years' time, if Dario is correct, and 50% of white-collar jobs have been replaced by AI, which I don't believe for a second, Then you damn right. There's going to be political. Political controversy. And if you think five percent is going…”
1831 days left 2031-09-18
2078 days left 2032-05-22
O'Driscoll: Four or more venture exits will top $65B in 5-7 years
“If there's not four exits, Above sixty five billion in the next five or seven years, then the people who bought Stripe, SpaceX, Databricks, OpenAI and Antropic are screwed. So I don't think they're screwed. So I think there's going to be, this trend is going t…”
2211 days left 2032-10-02
O'Driscoll: OpenAI must hit $200B-$300B revenue or AI market faces severe crash
“One of two things is going to happen in the next five or seven years, right? Either A, you know, you are going to see pretty profound productivity changes. You're going to see companies like OpenAI literally being two to three hundred billion dollars in revenu…”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
3250 days left 2035-08-07
3453 days left 2036-02-26
O'Driscoll: Only AI-led applications will grow over the next decade
“I think intelligence-led applications are the only applications that are going to sell And grow quickly over the next 10 years. Non-intelligent-led applications will at best be flat to mild growth if they're not obviously disrupted by intelligence, and at wors…”
3496 days left 2036-04-09
Rory O'Driscoll: Supabase Will Become a Legacy Database Within 10 Years
“Over the next five years, that will mean adding complexity, adding functionality. And in 10 years time, someone, and it won't be me at that point, will be saying, oh, my God, those legacy Superbase products, they're almost as bad as MongoDB, and there'll be a …”
3510 days left 2036-04-23
3510 days left 2036-04-23
O'Driscoll: Core payroll SaaS will survive and compound over next decade
“These are entire businesses that, you know, might have some impact at the margin in terms of agentic efficiency, but this core business will be there in five, 10 years' time. It'll compound because payroll is not, not everything is, I mean, it's, we're actuall…”
6812 days left 2045-05-08
Due for another look (1)
Closed calls (53) the full record →
O'Driscoll: Customer support applications will not require or use frontier AI models
“Customer support will not be using frontier models.”
O'Driscoll: Software valuations will never reach 20x revenue multiples again
“Give me 30% growth, give me profits, give me a story that's got some future in it, and I'll get you back to five times. I'll never give you 20 times again. I won't fall for that one this time.”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Capture All Ad-Buying Value Natively Without Ad-Tech
“So I think for the paid ads, all the value that's going to be captured is going to be captured by OpenAI, and there's not going to be a optimization engine.”
O'Driscoll: US fintechs will use anti-China messaging against foreign rivals
“Competitors are going to be the people who use it first. Because if I was an all-American fintech company, I'd have my all-American flag out there and say, these guys are a bunch of commies. They have commies looking at your data. We're, you know, our stuff is…”
Rory O'Driscoll: ChatGPT will succeed without destroying Google Search
“The likely outcome for me is ChatGP continues to build this compelling consumer product, can command differentiated market, while at the same time Google search does not quote unquote go to zero.”
O'Driscoll: AI platforms like ChatGPT will inevitably launch advertising
“I'm sure the other shoe to drop at some point is advertising. So it all makes sense because it's the only way it's one of only two ways to monetize the free users. So it's going to happen.”
O'Driscoll: VC Market Will Not Return to $100 Million Funding Caps
“Yeah, I think it's maybe not as pronounced as now, but it ain't going back to everything with A's, B's and C's and nothing be more than a hundred million dollar raise.”
O'Driscoll: FTC will investigate Big Tech's 'empty husk' deals
“So the FTC is not going to let this happen without poking around.”
O'Driscoll: xAI will fail to displace ChatGPT's dominant consumer mindshare
“The market's already been taken and maybe it gets some share of it, but I don't think, yeah, I don't think you can build as big a thing. I don't think you can build, I don't think you can displace ChatGPT at scale in the minds of the consumer, which is 80, 90%…”
O'Driscoll: AGI's arrival will be defined by Microsoft and OpenAI litigation
“My comment is we're going to hit AGI when Microsoft and OpenAI litigate what OpenAGI is.”
O'Driscoll: Major AI labs will inevitably acquire an AI coding app
“If they don't do if they don't do Winsurf now, the line of other coding apps outside the OpenAI office is going to go around the frickin' block. And at some point, someone's gonna buy something.”
O'Driscoll: Figma will IPO soon rather than stay private
“My guess is it totally makes sense for them to get a great IPO under their belt. In a way that, and not do the strike thing of stay private for another three or four years.”
O'Driscoll: Normal years won't yield over 5 exits above $10B
“Really there's not going to be more than four or five, ten billion dollar plus outcomes a year.”
O'Driscoll: Major cybersecurity incumbents will aggressively acquire agentic AI security startups
“So I think there'll be a ton of fast acquisitions as agent security solutions emerge, you know, and people will be doing, if they're smart, and I think those two companies are extraordinarily smart, they'll be doing acquisitions long before it's quote certain …”
O'Driscoll: Meta will lay off employees to fund Nvidia hardware purchases
“And that depreciation is going to start hitting, and they're going to be firing people because they need to give it to Jensen.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic and SpaceX's next funding rounds will be IPOs
“You've got to believe that the next round for this, Antropic, and SpaceX are all public offerings.”
O'Driscoll: Adobe Acquired SEMrush to Launch an Answer Engine Optimization Product
“SEMrush, which is the king of search engine optimization for Google, got acquired recently by Adobe, and I think that acquisition only makes sense if their plan is as quickly as is humanly possible to introduce an answer engine optimization product, because th…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's $10B raise will likely be its last before IPO
“I think it probably will be the last one before the IPO.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic can become $500B-$1T companies without AGI
“I think both of these companies can be plus or minus, you know, half a trillion to trillion dollar companies.”
O'Driscoll: Benchmark will hire replacement partners and remain successful
“Benchmark will be fine. So let's start with that. They'll find two other people to fill those slots and they'll be fine because they've been fine for 30 years.”
O'Driscoll: Slack restricting customer data access will fail over the medium term
“I don't know if you can get away forever in a horizontal app like Salesforce with a channel like Slack denying access, the denying the customer access to their own content over the medium term. I don't think it stands.”