The Calls, every show
Dated predictions on 44 shows and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
shows 
every show 44 of 44
Everyone Jason Lemkin (127)Chamath Palihapitiya (119)Rory O'Driscoll (115)Jason Calacanis (78)David Sacks (69)David Friedberg (63)Harry Stebbings (47)David Senra (45)Brad Gerstner (43)Alex Kantrowitz (38)John Coogan (37)Shaan Puri (36)
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Next up (19)
25 days left 2026-10-08
Gerstner bets reliable AI agents will autonomously book hotels within two years
“Over, under, I'll set the line at two years until we have an agent that has memory and can take action.
And the canonical use case, of course, that I used was that I could tell my agent, book me the Mercer Hotel next Tuesday in New York at the lowest price.
An…”
78 days left 2026-11-30
78 days left 2026-11-30
Gerstner: California wealth tax will fail and asset protection referendum will pass
“The wealth tax will be defeated. We will pass the retirement And personal asset protection act as a referendum in California, which will prohibit people from stealing your retirement money or your personal assets that will get passed.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
170 days left 2027-03-02
294 days left 2027-07-04
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
893 days left 2029-02-22
914 days left 2029-03-15
1092 days left 2029-09-09
Gerstner: US baseload power growth will surge over next 5 to 10 years
“When you model out the need for data center capacity over the course of the next five to 10 years, you realize for the first time in really two decades, the US's need to grow its baseload power generation is going to go up significantly, significantly faster t…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Gerstner: China is expected to pass US nuclear power generation by 2030
“China's on track, on the other hand, to bring on more capacity capacity in the next 10 years than we've brought on in the last 40 years. They're expected to pass us in terms of total power generation from nuclear by 2030, or thereabouts.”
1732 days left 2031-06-11
Gerstner: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI will add $1T revenue in 4-5 years
“The forecast now that we're going to add another trillion of revenue in just three companies, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, over the next four to five years, ok? Like, not seven companies, three companies, and in half the time, right?”
3589 days left 2036-07-11
5299 days left 2041-03-17
10527 days left 2055-07-10
Gerstner: Invest America will generate net tax revenue in 20 to 30 years
“According to the studies that were done on this will actually be revenue contributing 20 to 30 years out because the taxes you have to pay when you exit the accounts on the capital gains will be more Than what the government is contributing on an annual basis …”
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Gerstner: US government will take action against AI model distillation
“I think the US government is going to take steps against distillation, which they should do.”
Gerstner: SpaceX will use an innovative lockup structure for its IPO
“With respect to the lockup, I think this is the most innovative, and I think SpaceX is going to have a very similar innovation.”
Gerstner: SpaceX IPO will trade at 40 to 50 times revenue
“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”
Gerstner predicts OpenAI and Google will sandbox frontier AI models
“I think that OpenAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.”
Gerstner: Chip plants will be built in Vietnam, Japan, India, and Middle East
“I think you are going to see plants that get built in places like Vietnam and Japan. I think you are going to see them get built in India. You're probably going to see some attempts in the Middle East.”
Gerstner: Donald Trump will reach a big deal with China
“The reason I'm confident and I've said on this pod, That I think he'll get a big deal done with China.”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Gerstner: Meta will stay committed to open source alongside proprietary models
“My hunch is that they're going to stay very committed to open source, but they may compliment it with a proprietary model. That would be my guess. As opposed to scrapping open source altogether.”
Gerstner: Snowflake will eventually surpass its peak market valuation
“The truth of the matter is, I think Snowflake will be worth a lot more in the future than it is today, and even more in the future than it was then.”
Gerstner predicts SearchGPT will not reach one billion users
“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”
Gerstner: Venture capital investments from 2020-2022 will produce lousy returns
“I think the vintage of the last 18 months will be lousy. So the capital deployed over the last 18 months won't have a lot of return.”
Gerstner: Tech market valuations will not bounce back to 2020–2021 peak levels
“Let me be absolutely clear. There is no bouncing back to where we were the last 18 months. That was the outlier. That was the make-believe.”
Gerstner: China will not supply weapons to Russia
“This is why they're not going to supply the Russians with weapons.”
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Gerstner: Amazon will deploy custom silicon but remain major Nvidia buyer
“I think the answer to that is yes, but I still think they'll be one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA GPUs in the world because it doesn't replace that for a lot of really important workloads.”
Gerstner Forecasts 250k GPUs in 2025 and 1-2M in 2026 for Stargate
“And I'm forecasting maybe 250,000 GPUs this year, maybe a million or two million, you know, next year”
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Gerstner: Trump accounts initiative will go live on July 4th
“These things are going to go live on July fourth.”
Gerstner predicts up to 40 percent of 2022 unicorns will disappear
“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”
Gerstner: 'Death of software' narrative will look silly within 24 months
“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”
Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit
“But I suspect when you look at this package, right, and again, I'm just saying based upon how the Congressional Budget Office will score it, and this is kind of arcane scoring, but it will probably increase the deficit, and at best it would reduce it by a hund…”
Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China
“I think we're going to probably land somewhere in this kind of five to 10% terrace for the rest of the world. Right. If you add that up, that's going to be somewhere order of magnitude, two hundred billion dollars of tariffs, and you're not going to end up at …”