Equity Markets

“People who grew up in the equity markets are used to exchange traded markets. You go into fixed income markets, suddenly liquidity disappears very quickly when things go wrong.”

“And now the United States the capitalization of our equity markets is fully half of the entire world's capitalization. That's up from 30%.”

“I think we're in what seems to be, you know, and I hate calling things bubbles, but I think we're in a period of extreme euphoria”

“We don't think that skill is widely available in equity markets today. Technology means that it's being arbitraged away very quickly.”

“It's hard to see our equity markets growing 10, 15% from here in the near term, given all the vol in the markets, but if you choose to invest in this asset class and you can deploy, you're going to be sitting there generating low double-digit returns, hopefull…”

“Cause in credit, it's not zero sum. You know, the equity markets are more zero sum. You win the deal. I lose the deal. Credit. It's like, you're going to be in this, you typically are in the same bond with them or seem loan, or maybe we'll be on the other side…”

“When I see equity markets at all time highs, and I keep just reading the papers and private equity guys don't seem to be able to return capital to their clients. Wow. Imagine what that would look like in a bear market. That's an example of liquidity risks that…”

“We could be at the end of just an enormous hype cycle here where we have to contract the equity market.”

“Big part of the reason why I was comfortable making the bet was because the market was trading in historical high valuations. When that happens, you don't expect the next 10 years will be good.”

“That is something we're watching closely, and we just don't think equity markets have really priced that risk at the moment.”

“I think liquidity risks right now are underrated and underappreciated. There's a lot of optics of good liquidity in markets. But a lot of that liquidity, especially in equity markets, is just day trading back and forth, and if you need to get out of a fairly s…”

“The more important time horizon that we use is focusing on the medium and long-term of what will drive prices in these markets, and that's the fundamentals of each of these individual markets, the supply, the demand, the regulatory changes that are occurring, …”

“Sometimes you'll see risks in the credit market before you see them in the equity market. Sometimes it's the opposite. Typically the equity market is first and credit market is second, but it can vary.”

“I think I mentioned a while ago that dollars were kind of locked up in March and then I went to this conference and people were like, yeah, we're loosening up and making a plan again in July because the market was kind of turning back up and now equity markets…”

“Also, I find that in a lot of these markets, especially in emerging markets, the equity markets are really the most inefficient markets. They tend not to react as quickly as the currency or the debt.”

“So, you know, it stands to reason that if the Fed is going to take three to five trillion dollars of value out, then we have to rewrite the equity markets by three to five trillion dollars at a minimum. And then you have to rewrite and re baseline for earnings…”

“Unlike equity markets where companies will stay private for five, six, seven, 10 years in crypto, like the token might be liquid a year or a year and a half after you invest in it.”

“So I think what the Fed's going to do is get even more aggressive. You're going to probably see, you know, a lot of fifties, maybe even a 75 point hike. You probably are going to see them, you know, even ratchet up quantitative tightening until there is a bit …”

“The, your savings account turned into your checking account. The bond market turned into your savings account. The equity market turned into the bond market. The venture market turned into the equity market and the crypto market became the new venture market. …”

“The base rate of a 20% drawdown in markets is about five percent of time.”

“Literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both the equity markets, the currency markets, And the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been, not just all day, but frankly, where they have been probably for the last few months.”

“There were a lot of smart people who were short the stock for a while, and even though the information, their skepticism traveled in a very small circle, the broader circle of people didn't really understand how, how the company made money, and there was this …”

“If you look at primarily equity raised, either venture capital raised or IPOs or following equity, it's a small fraction. There's two, three, four, five times as much money raised in the equity markets each year, but the equity markets can be volatile, right?”

“It is a equity market that is buoyed by Fed dollars that is not mapping to the reality of what's happening on the ground.”

“When you get a ton of like stimulus, well, the equity market's going to pump. It's not just, I, you know, I think Bitcoin's going to go up. I think gold's going to go up, but I think the equity market's going to absolutely rip.”

“Let's look at trailing price momentum for the bonds and the stocks, and let's look at things where the stock went way up and the bonds went down. Who's right? Turns out, in those cases, that the bond market's right. The stock should come down.”

“It's not to get the marginal negative three percent. It's there because if the bottom falls out of the equity market, There will be a flight to safety, which will be fixed income. That will be the liquid asset that will be appreciated at the time, and you can …”

“Our downside protection comes from unlisted assets. The volatility of the equity markets is dampened By the existence of unlisted assets in varying degrees, and that's not just a valuation lag. It's also to do with the quality of the cash flows that you get fr…”

“I just don't think it's ever going to get there because liquidity's dropped off. So the problem is, what does it matter from a factor basis if things aren't even trading? And we've entered this point in the credit markets and the debt markets in general, where…”

“This is uncorrelated with Oil, gold, emerging market currencies, the equity markets, bonds, it's really just uncorrelated with everything else, and it's because it's a totally new phenomena.”

“We don't think that skill is widely available in equity markets today. Technology means that it's being arbitraged away very quickly”

“When governments recapitalize banks, the recovery and the equity markets and employment tend to happen more quickly than when governments simply buy their bad loans.”

“With the exception of the 1970 to 73 Arab-Israeli conflict which led to an oil embargo and a stagflation, almost every single military conflict was gone from the markets within three to four months. Where the business cycle was at that point the primary driver…”

“There's very strong evidence that when things are volatile, thereafter, the risk of a big drawdown is much higher than when things are calm.”

“It's hard to sort of have a belief that equity market returns will be fantastic over the next 10 years.”