| 18T | “18 trillion” | Bar: B2B paper check volume will drop to zero within five years | Matan Bar | Feb 11, 2021 | Didn’t hold up |
| 15T | “15 trillion” | Kant: Internet has 3T usable code tokens vs 15T English text tokens | Eiso Kant | Oct 7, 2024 | Supported |
| 11T | “a 10 trillion” | Pishevar: SpaceX will become a $10 trillion company | Shervin Pishevar | Jan 13, 2025 | Open |
| 11T | “a 10 trillion” | Schroepfer: Climate change is a $10 trillion economic problem | Mike Schroepfer | May 29, 2024 | — |
| 11T | “a 10 trillion” | OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Open |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Lemkin: VCs Must Bet on Software Companies Tripling ARR to $150M | Jason Lemkin | Dec 11, 2025 | — |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Ross: Nvidia will be worth $10 trillion in five years | Jonathan Ross | Sep 29, 2025 | Open |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Lemkin: Retail investors should not have exposure to private assets | Jason Lemkin | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Lazarte: US labor market spend is $10T versus $1T software market | Victor Lazarte | Apr 14, 2025 | Supported |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Lazarte: Ten trillion-dollar companies will be created in the next decade | Victor Lazarte | Apr 14, 2025 | Open |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Hamid: Tech sector will gain $10 trillion in annual spend within decade | Mamoon Hamid | Oct 21, 2024 | Open |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Narayanan: Recursive AI scaling using synthetic data will not work | Arvind Narayanan | Aug 28, 2024 | — |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Peiris: Consumer cross-border flows total $1T and SMB flows $10T | Nilan Peiris | Jul 26, 2024 | Supported |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Tomaino: Crypto market cap could reach $10 trillion on speculation alone | Nick Tomaino | Jan 8, 2024 | — |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Lemkin: Nvidia will reach $10 trillion cumulative bookings in 5-7 years | Jason Lemkin | Mar 19, 2026 | Open |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | Fred Turner: Anthropic Could Reach A $10 Trillion Valuation | Fred Turner | Jul 18, 2026 | — |
| 10T | “10 trillion” | The AI Industry Lacks Systems Designed for 10-Trillion Parameter Models | Lin Qiao | Jul 20, 2026 | — |
| 9T | “nine trillion” | Cahn: AI will disrupt at least 5% of global GDP ($9T+) | David Cahn | Oct 27, 2025 | — |
| 9T | “nine trillion” | Pishevar: Masa Son's thesis of $9T annual value from AI capex makes sense | Shervin Pishevar | Jan 13, 2025 | — |
| 8T | “eight trillion” | Wood: Disruptive innovation market cap will hit $210T in ten years | Cathie Wood | Nov 14, 2022 | Open |
| 8T | “eight-trillion” | O'Driscoll: Chinese AI model Kimi K-3 has 2.8 trillion parameters | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 23, 2026 | Supported |
| 7T | “a six trillion” | Retail is a $6 trillion market that has grown for a decade | Brendan Wallace | May 6, 2019 | Supported |
| 5.3T | “5.3 trillion” | US healthcare sector is $5.3T and 18-19% of GDP | Shiv Rao | May 16, 2026 | Supported |
| 5T | “five trillion” | Peets: Anthropic will reach a $4T to $5T valuation | Chad Peets | May 23, 2026 | Open |
| 5T | “a four trillion” | Wertz: Crypto Market Cap ($500B) Lags Far Behind 2000 Dot-Com Peak ($4T) | Boris Wertz | May 14, 2018 | Supported |
| 4T | “four trillion” | Nvidia Is the 21st Century's Greatest Company; Valuation May Be Too Low | Andrew Feldman | Oct 6, 2025 | — |
| 4T | “a three trillion” | O'Driscoll: Private venture assets total $3T, including $2T in stalled SaaS | Rory O'Driscoll | Apr 17, 2025 | — |
| 3.6T | “3.6 trillion” | O'Driscoll: Total value of all private companies reaches $3.6 trillion | Rory O'Driscoll | Jan 15, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 3.1T | “a 2.1 trillion” | Tomasz Tunguz: Web2 cloud infra and top 100 apps share equal market caps | Tomasz Tunguz | May 24, 2024 | Supported |
| 3.1T | “a 2.1 trillion” | Tunguz: Top 3 cloud providers equal top 100 apps in market cap | Tomasz Tunguz | Nov 24, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 3.1T | “a 2.1 trillion” | Tunguz: Web2 cloud infrastructure and application layers both have $2.1T market cap | Tomasz Tunguz | Apr 21, 2023 | Supported |
| 3T | “three trillion” | Boland: Europe will spend €2-3 trillion on defense within 8 years | Stan Boland | Apr 10, 2025 | Open |
| 3T | “three trillion” | Stebbings: $50B tech acquisitions will happen as acquirers hit $3T valuations | Harry Stebbings | Dec 6, 2024 | Open |
| 3T | “three trillion” | Kant: Internet has 3T usable code tokens vs 15T English text tokens | Eiso Kant | Oct 7, 2024 | Supported |
| 3T | “three trillion” | Hyman: Fast fashion commands over 80% of $3T global market | Jennifer Hyman | Jun 28, 2023 | Contradicted |
| 3T | “three trillion” | Mazour: E-commerce is a $2T to $3T market | Ivan Mazour | Jan 8, 2016 | Partly supported |
| 3T | “half a half a trillion” | Hans Tung: Chinese E-Commerce Hits $1T Annually vs. $500B+ in US | Hans Tung | Jan 8, 2018 | Supported |
| 3T | “a two trillion” | Partovi: CoProcure could become the largest female-led company of all time | Ali Partovi | Jan 21, 2022 | — |
| 3T | “three trillion” | Reyes: Nvidia will likely hit a $10 trillion market cap within three years | Eno Reyes | Aug 29, 2026 | Open |
| 2.9T | “2.9 trillion” | O'Driscoll: Total private venture fair market value is roughly $2.9 trillion | Rory O'Driscoll | Dec 11, 2025 | Supported |
| 2.5T | “a half a trillion” | Chris Dark: Blockchain will fundamentally solve the $500B global remittance industry | Chris Dark | May 4, 2015 | Didn’t hold up |
| 2.5T | “a half a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Coding is a half-trillion dollar industry | Rory O'Driscoll | Sep 10, 2026 | — |
| 2.5T | “a half a trillion” | Stebbings: AI in legal services could be a half-trillion dollar market | Harry Stebbings | Sep 10, 2026 | — |
| 2.4T | “2.4 trillion” | O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | Open |
| 2.1T | “20 A hundred billion” | $100B Venture IPOs Will Remain Rare Generational Outcomes Through 2035 | Miles Dieffenbach | Aug 4, 2025 | Open |
| 2.1T | “2.1 trillion” | Tomasz Tunguz: Web2 cloud infra and top 100 apps share equal market caps | Tomasz Tunguz | May 24, 2024 | Supported |
| 2.1T | “2.1 trillion” | Tunguz: Top 3 cloud providers equal top 100 apps in market cap | Tomasz Tunguz | Nov 24, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 2.1T | “2.1 trillion” | Tunguz: Web2 cloud infrastructure and application layers both have $2.1T market cap | Tomasz Tunguz | Apr 21, 2023 | Supported |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Lemkin: 2026 will see one or two trillion-dollar tech IPOs | Jason Lemkin | Dec 22, 2025 | Held up |
| 2T | “two trillion” | O'Driscoll: Palantir Market Cap Will Not Reach $2 Trillion in Five Years | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 14, 2025 | Open |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Lemkin: Developer AI total addressable market will grow 50x | Jason Lemkin | Jul 31, 2025 | — |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Stebbings: OpenAI Will Reach a $1.5T to $2T Valuation | Harry Stebbings | May 15, 2025 | Open |
| 2T | “two trillion” | O'Driscoll: Private venture assets total $3T, including $2T in stalled SaaS | Rory O'Driscoll | Apr 17, 2025 | — |
| 2T | “a one trillion” | Solomou: TikTok Shop and social commerce will reach $1T within five years | Solly Solomou | Feb 14, 2025 | Held up |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Hoffman: DOGE has zero chance of cutting $2T without defense cuts | Reid Hoffman | Dec 16, 2024 | Held up |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Benioff: Salesforce Processes Over Two Trillion Enterprise Transactions Weekly | Marc Benioff | Dec 9, 2024 | Not publicly verifiable |
| 2T | “a one trillion” | Asparouhov: Uber would be a $1T company if Travis Kalanick remained CEO | Delian Asparouhov | Jul 29, 2024 | — |
| 2T | “two trillion” | O'Driscoll: SpaceX's $2T valuation assumes a zero percent failure rate | Rory O'Driscoll | Apr 16, 2026 | — |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Lemkin: Elon Musk will force underwriters to meet SpaceX target IPO valuation | Jason Lemkin | Apr 9, 2026 | Held up |
| 2T | “a one trillion” | Hyatt: Most VCs prioritize market modeling over team and product | Nabeel Hyatt | Jun 8, 2016 | — |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Stebbings: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Reach $1 Trillion to $2 Trillion Valuations | Harry Stebbings | Aug 7, 2026 | Open |
| 2T | “two trillion” | O'Driscoll: Only one or two trillion-dollar outcomes this decade, all AI | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 27, 2026 | — |
| 1.7T | “1.7 trillion” | Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more | Jason Lemkin | Dec 18, 2025 | Held up |
| 1.7T | “1.7 trillion” | Gomez: 13-billion-parameter models now outperform original 1.7-trillion GPT-4 | Aidan Gomez | Aug 19, 2024 | Partly supported |
| 1.5T | “1.5 trillion” | O'Driscoll: Traditional financial metrics cannot justify SpaceX's $1.5T valuation | Rory O'Driscoll | Dec 18, 2025 | — |
| 1.5T | “half a trillion” | Taneja: Anthropic could be worth $500B by next year | Hemant Taneja | Sep 22, 2025 | Held up |
| 1.5T | “half a trillion” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic can become $500B-$1T companies without AGI | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 14, 2025 | Held up |
| 1.5T | “Half a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Private venture assets total $3T, including $2T in stalled SaaS | Rory O'Driscoll | Apr 17, 2025 | — |
| 1.5T | “1.5 trillion” | Stebbings: OpenAI will IPO in October 2026 at $1.5 trillion valuation | Harry Stebbings | Mar 5, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5T | “half a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI spend has established a $500BN-$1TN market size | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| 1.5T | “a half trillion” | Shridhar: Global Electricity Is a $5.5T Market; Bloom Energy Did $2B | K.R. Shridhar | Jun 29, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1.5T | “fifteen hundred billion” | Global financial services can support 1,500 billion-dollar companies | Tom Blomfield | Nov 30, 2018 | — |
| 1.5T | “a half trillion” | Leone: Sequoia portfolio companies have created $6.5 trillion in market value | Doug Leone | Sep 14, 2021 | Supported |
| 1.5T | “a half trillion” | Stebbings: AI in legal services could be a half-trillion dollar market | Harry Stebbings | Sep 10, 2026 | — |
| 1.3T | “1.25 trillion” | Stebbings: SpaceX acquired xAI in a $1.25T combined valuation merger | Harry Stebbings | Feb 5, 2026 | Supported |
| 1.2T | “1.2 trillion” | O'Driscoll: Waymo at $110B is cheap compared to Tesla's $500B autonomous valuation | Rory O'Driscoll | Feb 5, 2026 | — |
| 1.2T | “1.2 trillion” | O'Driscoll: Total value of all private companies reaches $3.6 trillion | Rory O'Driscoll | Jan 15, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 1.2T | “1.2 trillion” | Deliveroo's 12 markets represent a $1.8 trillion total addressable market | Will Shu | Oct 25, 2021 | Supported |
| 1.1T | “1.1 trillion” | Carney: China accounted for half of global clean energy investment in 2022 | Mark Carney | May 1, 2023 | Supported |
| 1T | “a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Waymo at $110B is cheap compared to Tesla's $500B autonomous valuation | Rory O'Driscoll | Feb 5, 2026 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Chang predicts Revolut will become a trillion-dollar company | Alan Chang | Jan 5, 2026 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Lemkin: 2026 will see one or two trillion-dollar tech IPOs | Jason Lemkin | Dec 22, 2025 | Held up |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Siddharth: Universal AI assistants require trillion-parameter models | Jonathan Siddharth | Dec 1, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “one trillion” | Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more | Jason Lemkin | Dec 18, 2025 | Held up |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Randle: OpenAI could raise at a $1T valuation next year | Everett Randle | Nov 10, 2025 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Randle: AWS would be worth $1 trillion if spun out of Amazon | Everett Randle | Nov 10, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | David Cahn: AI Era Competition Will Prevent Monopoly Profits | David Cahn | Oct 27, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “one trillion” | O'Driscoll: AI Expansion Will Be Constrained by Economic Returns | Rory O'Driscoll | Oct 16, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Taneja: Stripe will become a $1 trillion company in 10 years | Hemant Taneja | Sep 22, 2025 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Lemkin: Anthropic Sourced AI Book Training Datasets Directly from Pirate Sites | Jason Lemkin | Sep 11, 2025 | Supported |
| 1T | “a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Sam Altman's $1T AI spending proposal will not pencil out financially | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 21, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Win, But Perplexity Can Be Third | Rory O'Driscoll | May 15, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Five of six trillion-dollar companies were VC-backed | Rory O'Driscoll | May 8, 2025 | Supported |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Wilk: Tesla's Trillion-Dollar Valuation Would Be Impossible if Private | Jason Wilk | Apr 21, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Private venture assets total $3T, including $2T in stalled SaaS | Rory O'Driscoll | Apr 17, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI is currently valued at $300 billion | Rory O'Driscoll | Apr 17, 2025 | Supported |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Pishevar: Uber would be worth $1T if Travis Kalanick stayed | Shervin Pishevar | Jan 13, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “one trillion” | Narayanan: Recursive AI scaling using synthetic data will not work | Arvind Narayanan | Aug 28, 2024 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Peiris: Consumer cross-border flows total $1T and SMB flows $10T | Nilan Peiris | Jul 26, 2024 | Supported |
| 1T | “ten hundred billion” | Lemkin: The AI market could yield ten $100B outcomes | Jason Lemkin | Jun 3, 2024 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Franceschetti: Sleep technology will become a trillion-dollar business | Matteo Franceschetti | Nov 20, 2023 | — |
| 1T | “one trillion” | Lanng: Marginal Public Data Differences Are Rounding Errors in Large Models | Christian Lanng | Sep 27, 2023 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Benioff's 1t.org aims to sequester 200 gigatons of carbon | Marc Benioff | Sep 25, 2023 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Hankes: Disrupting Google Search Is a Trillion-Dollar Opportunity | Vince Hankes | May 3, 2023 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Musk's death would cut Tesla 80%, Altman's cuts OpenAI 25% | Rory O'Driscoll | Mar 5, 2026 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Lemkin: Uber would be worth $1 trillion today under Travis Kalanick | Jason Lemkin | Mar 19, 2026 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Perplexity can become a trillion-dollar company | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 1T | “one trillion” | O'Driscoll: The 2020s will produce two trillion-dollar startup outcomes | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Josh Browder: Anthropic will reach $1 trillion in revenue | Josh Browder | May 18, 2026 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Wise: Balderton Capital's most recent investment is in MyTomorrows | James Wise | Mar 12, 2015 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Altucher in 2015: Uber will become a trillion-dollar company | James Altucher | Jun 4, 2015 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Petersen: Massive Market Dollar Capture Outweighs Pure Software Gross Margins | Ryan Petersen | Dec 2, 2016 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Petersen: Flexport Will Thrive Even if Global Trade OS Vision Fails | Ryan Petersen | Dec 2, 2016 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Meir in 2019: Tesla will become a $1 trillion company | Avi Meir | Jan 11, 2019 | Held up |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Marks: The US ran a $1T deficit during prosperity due to 2017 tax bill | Howard Marks | Mar 30, 2020 | Supported |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Retail banking revenue will shrink significantly as technological efficiency rises | Sebastian Siemiatkowski | Mar 1, 2021 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Shalek: Updating priors and reframing scale defines the best investors | Nick Shalek | Jul 26, 2021 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Garg: Ethereum could become a neutral $1T GDP digital settlement layer | Avichal Garg | Apr 11, 2022 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Crespo: Pigment aims for $1T, but current platform won't get them there | Eleonore Crespo | May 9, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Ron Gabrisco predicts Databricks will become a trillion-dollar company | Ron Gabrisko | Aug 4, 2025 | Open |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Junestrand: Legal AI should target $1T services market, not $20B software | Max Junestrand | Aug 15, 2025 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Angelopoulos: AI data market will reach $100B to $1T by 2030 | Anastasios Angelopoulos | Aug 2, 2026 | Open |
| 900B | “nine hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Startup exit valuations will not keep expanding exponentially over the next decade | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 3, 2025 | — |
| 850B | “850 billion” | $7B Multi-Stage VC Funds Require $800B in Exit Cap for 4x Net | Miles Dieffenbach | Aug 4, 2025 | — |
| 800B | “eight hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: $4T AI infrastructure investment requires impossible $800B annual profit | Rory O'Driscoll | Sep 4, 2025 | — |
| 800B | “eight hundred billion” | $7B Multi-Stage VC Funds Require $800B in Exit Cap for 4x Net | Miles Dieffenbach | Aug 4, 2025 | — |
| 800B | “eight hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Musk's death would cut Tesla 80%, Altman's cuts OpenAI 25% | Rory O'Driscoll | Mar 5, 2026 | — |
| 800B | “Eight hundred billion” | Samani: Three Arrows Capital blowup is minor relative to entire crypto market | Kyle Samani | Jul 22, 2022 | — |
| 700B | “seven hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: The AI industry generates $100B revenue while spending $700B on CapEx | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 700B | “seven hundred billion” | Venture Funds Exceeding $700M Lose Their Predominant Series A Focus | Beezer Clarkson | Oct 24, 2016 | — |
| 700B | “a six hundred billion” | Public cloud penetration is only 7% of the $600B enterprise IT market | Alex Clayton | Mar 25, 2019 | Supported |
| 670B | “six hundred seventy billion” | Freise: KKR aims to increase retail investor base to 50% | Philipp Freise | Jun 30, 2025 | Open |
| 600B | “six hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Annual AI CapEx exceeds app revenue by $500 billion | Rory O'Driscoll | Jan 29, 2026 | Supported |
| 600B | “six hundred billion” | Cahn: AI infrastructure investment requires $840B in end-user revenue | David Cahn | Oct 27, 2025 | — |
| 600B | “six hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: AI CapEx spend of $600B far outpaces $30B-$40B market revenue | Rory O'Driscoll | Sep 25, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 600B | “six hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: AI scaling laws unlocked $600B in annual CapEx spend | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 28, 2025 | Supported |
| 600B | “six hundred billion” | Big Four Tech Giants Generate $600B in Annual Operating Cash Flow | Miles Dieffenbach | Aug 4, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 600B | “six hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: AI CapEx reaches $600B against only $30B in revenue | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 31, 2025 | — |
| 600B | “six hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Musk's death would cut Tesla 80%, Altman's cuts OpenAI 25% | Rory O'Driscoll | Mar 5, 2026 | — |
| 600B | “a five hundred billion” | Stebbings: Fireworks can become a $500 billion company | Harry Stebbings | Jul 20, 2026 | — |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Annual AI CapEx exceeds app revenue by $500 billion | Rory O'Driscoll | Jan 29, 2026 | Supported |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | Lemkin: Anthropic will go public at a $500 billion valuation | Jason Lemkin | Dec 11, 2025 | Open |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: SoftBank is funding OpenAI at $300B and $500B valuations simultaneously | Rory O'Driscoll | Oct 30, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI will reach a $1 trillion valuation in two years | Rory O'Driscoll | Oct 30, 2025 | Open |
| 500B | “a four hundred billion” | Feldman: Running DeepSeek 671B on Standard SRAM Chips Requires Up to 8,000 Chips | Andrew Feldman | Mar 24, 2025 | Supported |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | Wertz: Crypto Market Cap ($500B) Lags Far Behind 2000 Dot-Com Peak ($4T) | Boris Wertz | May 14, 2018 | Supported |
| 500B | “five hundred billion” | Rodrigues: Trucking is an order of magnitude larger than the advertising market | Alex Rodrigues | Jul 5, 2019 | — |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: SpaceX and OpenAI are the only $100B+ private compounders | Rory O'Driscoll | May 8, 2025 | Contradicted |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | Grimshaw: Cloud spend grew from $10B to $400B between 2012 and 2022 | Miles Grimshaw | Sep 18, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | De Rycker: $200B to $400B in VC dry powder remains uninvested | Sonali De Rycker | Jun 27, 2022 | Partly supported |
| 400B | “400 billion” | O'Driscoll: Markets won't sustain a $400B valuation bump from Musk's fab announcement | Rory O'Driscoll | Mar 26, 2026 | Open |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Meta lost $70B on VR after making $100B+ on Instagram | Rory O’Driscoll | Apr 16, 2026 | Supported |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | Lemkin: AI has expanded the customer experience TAM by 50%, not 10x | Jason Lemkin | May 7, 2026 | — |
| 400B | “four hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Customer support software TAM is $30B compared to $400B labor spend | Rory O'Driscoll | May 7, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 350B | “three hundred fifty billion” | Cannon-Brookes: VCs back OpenAI at huge valuations for logo marketing | Mike Cannon-Brookes | Feb 12, 2026 | — |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: SoftBank is funding OpenAI at $300B and $500B valuations simultaneously | Rory O'Driscoll | Oct 30, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | Cahn: AI infrastructure investment requires $840B in end-user revenue | David Cahn | Oct 27, 2025 | — |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Buy Compute From Oracle If Cheaper Than Microsoft | Rory O’Driscoll | Sep 18, 2025 | Held up |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI is currently valued at $300 billion | Rory O'Driscoll | Apr 17, 2025 | Supported |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | Grimm: Western allies will spend nearly $1.3T on defense in 2024 | Matt Grimm | Nov 11, 2024 | Partly supported |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | Lanng: Enterprise software spend grew to $780B while IT headcount doubled | Christian Lanng | Sep 27, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 300B | “three hundred billion” | Open-Source LLMs Are Not Inherently Explainable or Transparent | Alex Lebrun | Jun 19, 2023 | — |
| 300B | “a two hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Meta's $150B AI CapEx to boost ad revenue is a mistake | Rory O'Driscoll | May 7, 2026 | — |
| 300B | “a two hundred billion” | Galston: The global frozen food market is worth $200 billion | Ezra Galston | Aug 17, 2015 | Partly supported |
| 300B | “a two hundred billion” | Stebbings: Enterprise Specialized Data Is a $200 Billion Market Opportunity | Harry Stebbings | Aug 22, 2026 | — |
| 212B | “two hundred twelve billion” | Lemkin: Big six tech companies spent an unprecedented $212B on CapEx | Jason Lemkin | Jun 5, 2025 | Supported |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Waymo at $110B is cheap compared to Tesla's $500B autonomous valuation | Rory O'Driscoll | Feb 5, 2026 | — |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | Rory O'Driscoll: Sierra must target $200B labor market to justify $10B valuation | Rory O’Driscoll | Nov 27, 2025 | — |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | Reck: European VC funding is $50B annually versus $200B+ in US | Johannes Reck | Jun 23, 2025 | Supported |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | Brian Halligan admits he was unsuited to lead HubSpot past 7,000 employees | Brian Halligan | Jan 15, 2024 | — |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Musk's death would cut Tesla 80%, Altman's cuts OpenAI 25% | Rory O'Driscoll | Mar 5, 2026 | — |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | Stebbings: Anthropic committed $200B to Google Cloud over five years | Harry Stebbings | May 14, 2026 | Supported |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | Lemkin: Etched is not worth $10B today but could reach $200B | Jason Lemkin | Jul 29, 2026 | — |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | Stebbings Predicts Largest AI Data Providers Will Reach $200B | Harry Stebbings | Aug 27, 2026 | Open |
| 200B | “two hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Holding competing late-stage AI stakes creates no real conflict | Rory O'Driscoll | Sep 10, 2026 | — |
| 184B | “a hundred eighty four billion” | Lemkin: Half of the $184B invested in VC in 2025 went to four companies | Jason Lemkin | Nov 20, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 183B | “a hundred eighty three billion” | Lemkin: Half of the $184B invested in VC in 2025 went to four companies | Jason Lemkin | Nov 20, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 160B | “a hundred sixty billion” | Narang: Toast processes $160 billion in annual transaction volume | Aman Narang | Aug 21, 2024 | Supported |
| 160B | “one hundred sixty billion” | Rabois: Compressed benchmark comps break mid-stage venture valuation math | Keith Rabois | May 30, 2022 | — |
| 150B | “one hundred fifty billion” | Cahn: AI infrastructure investment requires $840B in end-user revenue | David Cahn | Oct 27, 2025 | — |
| 150B | “a hundred fifty billion” | Hommels: European defense spending creates $50B annual market for tech startups | Klaus Hommels | Nov 27, 2024 | Contradicted |
| 150B | “a hundred fifty billion” | Replacing Travis Kalanick with Dara Khosrowshahi was a mistake for Uber | Scott Gorlick | Aug 30, 2024 | — |
| 150B | “a hundred fifty billion” | Fabrice Grinda notes annual US seed deals expanded from 5,000 to 20,000 | Fabrice Grinda | May 21, 2022 | Partly supported |
| 150B | “a hundred fifty billion” | O'Driscoll: Meta's $150B AI CapEx to boost ad revenue is a mistake | Rory O'Driscoll | May 7, 2026 | — |
| 150B | “a hundred fifty billion” | Grinda: Annual Venture Capital Deployment Tripled From $50B to $150B | Fabrice Grinda | May 9, 2022 | Supported |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic could hit $100B revenue within two years | Rory O'Driscoll | Feb 5, 2026 | — |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: NVIDIA issued a document committing up to $100B to OpenAI | Rory O'Driscoll | Feb 5, 2026 | Supported |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Waymo at $110B is cheap compared to Tesla's $500B autonomous valuation | Rory O'Driscoll | Feb 5, 2026 | — |
| 100B | “A hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Annual AI CapEx exceeds app revenue by $500 billion | Rory O'Driscoll | Jan 29, 2026 | Supported |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: NVIDIA operates at 75% gross margins and $100B cash flow | Rory O'Driscoll | Jan 8, 2026 | Supported |
| 100B | “hundred billion” | Randle: Tech offers far more $100B opportunities today than 15 years ago | Everett Randle | Nov 10, 2025 | Supported |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | Bouaziz: Deel needs a strong brand to become a $100B+ company | Alex Bouaziz | Oct 20, 2025 | — |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | Ross: Hyperscaler AI CapEx of $100B Annually Is Not Overspending | Jonathan Ross | Sep 29, 2025 | — |
| 100B | “hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: $4T AI infrastructure investment requires impossible $800B annual profit | Rory O'Driscoll | Sep 4, 2025 | — |
| 100B | “hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Market drastically overestimates timeline for AI to transform $100B companies | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 28, 2025 | — |
| 100B | “hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Foundation model revenue won't hit $100B due to TAM limits | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 28, 2025 | Open |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Extended private market stays mathematically guarantee $100B+ VC outcomes | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 21, 2025 | — |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Private market investors lack stop-losses and absorb full downside risk | Rory O'Driscoll | Aug 21, 2025 | — |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | $100B Venture IPOs Will Remain Rare Generational Outcomes Through 2035 | Miles Dieffenbach | Aug 4, 2025 | Open |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | Edwin Chen says he wouldn't sell Surge for $100 billion | Edwin Chen | Jul 21, 2025 | Open |
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