O'Driscoll: Waymo at $110B is cheap compared to Tesla's $500B autonomous valuation
Rory O'Driscoll · The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI · Feb 5, 2026 · at 1:10:39
Rory O'Driscoll is a General Partner at Scale Venture Partners. He is analyzing Waymo's $16 billion funding round at a $110 billion valuation by breaking down Tesla's market capitalization.
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“Tesla trades at 1.2 trillion plus or minus. It's got a hundred million dollar flat car business with declining profitability. Let's value that at two X revenues. That's two hundred billion. So that leaves you a trillion left, right? Trillion from the 1.2 trillion valuation. There's only two assets that give you that self drive. And Optimus. For lack of any information, split it. Fifty-fifty. Half self-drive, half Optimus. Tesla's self-drive opportunity, which has zero commercial revenue, 20 cars driving around Austin, still having way more stops than humans based on the latest data, is valued in the public markets at effectively five hundred billion dollars. You're getting an actual functioning program, albeit with a more expensive cost structure and maybe not the right long term solution. For a hundred billion, it's cheap.”
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