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Tesla

includes Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model S, Tesla Roadster, Tesla Full Self Driving, Tesla Cybercab, Tesla Optimus, Tesla Autopilot, Tesla Model Y, Tesla Cybertruck, Tesla Dojo, Tesla Model X, Tesla Semi and 3 more

60 statements across 46 episodes · 33 bullish · 13 bearish · 39 people on the record · first statement Feb 2, 2015 by Joe Floyd · said 434 times in 154 episodes since 2015 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (60), Jason Lemkin (29), Rory O'Driscoll (26), Peter Singlehurst (13), Matteo Franceschetti (12), Cathie Wood (11), Steve Jurvetson (10), Eiso Kant (9)

tap a year for its mentions
00752015040201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
02040201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
002.520540201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 118 mentions in 29 episodes 4 per episode
2025 96 mentions in 32 episodes 3 per episode
2024 40 mentions in 23 episodes 2 per episode
2023 33 mentions in 15 episodes 2 per episode
2022 36 mentions in 11 episodes 3 per episode
2021 9 mentions in 6 episodes 2 per episode
2020 24 mentions in 9 episodes 3 per episode
2019 19 mentions in 8 episodes 2 per episode
2018 9 mentions in 2 episodes 5 per episode
2017 18 mentions in 10 episodes 2 per episode
2016 23 mentions in 7 episodes 3 per episode
2015 9 mentions in 2 episodes 5 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Tesla, oldest first

Feb 2, 2015 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Floyd in 2015: BMW and Audi will catch up to Tesla
“I think what you're going to wind up having is companies like BMW and Audi are going to catch up. Tesla has kind of that one to two Your lead, and, I mean, you see it with companies, with a car like the i-eight coming out. I mean, other car companies are going…”
Joe Floyd Feb 2, 2015 ▶ 14:13 20 VC 009: Red Flags, Saas and becoming a VC with Joe Floyd
Oct 21, 2015 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tesla's $35,000 car in 2016 will make it a mainstream brand
“And that they, the announcements or the buzz is that there's, they're going to be releasing a much cheaper model in late 2016, a 35,000 dollar price point car. I think that has the opportunity to make them a household brand and not just something that's access…”
Weston Gaddy Oct 21, 2015 ▶ 14:34 20 VC 081: From YC to VC with Weston Gaddy @ Bain Capital Ventures
Feb 22, 2016 positive
Disclosure
Tim Draper: We funded Tesla before Elon Musk took over
“And it was actually true of Martin Eberhard when we funded Tesla before Elon Musk came in and refund, refinanced it and took it over.”
Tim Draper Feb 22, 2016 ▶ 9:16 20VC: Tim Draper on Investing In Tesla, The Best Pitch He Has Ever Seen & The Evolution of Venture and Startups
Jun 1, 2016 neutral
Assertion Supported
Basu Trivedi: Elon Musk predicted fully self-driving Teslas by late 2017
“Elon Musk said in In December, 2015 that Tesla is two years away from a self-driving car. So, you know, now we're in 2016 and he said that the Tesla will get there in late 2017.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 7:06 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures
Jun 1, 2016 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Basu Trivedi: Tesla's 2016 Autopilot team had just 30 people
“So, so an example of this is, you know, Tesla has a 30 person team working on autopilot, which is their Autonomous sort of cruise control and lane changing and lane keeping software and application that's live today in in Model S's and Model X's. So they have,…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 10:53 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures
Jun 8, 2016 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Hyatt: Cruise Built Tesla-Style Autopilot Long Before Tesla Did
“So the kind of autopilot that we now see in Tesla, only they had produced it, you know long before Tesla had produced it.”
Nabeel Hyatt Jun 8, 2016 ▶ 17:17 20VC: Spark's Nabeel Hyatt on Investing in Oculus and Cruise & What It Takes To Invest Ahead Of The Curve
Aug 10, 2016 bullish
Prediction Held up
Automobiles will increasingly be sold direct-to-consumer, following Tesla's model
“We think cars will be sold direct to consumer the way Tesla is doing it.”
David Pakman Aug 10, 2016 ▶ 20:10 20VC: Dollar Shave Club's Series A & B Lead Investor, David Pakman on The Requirements For A Successful Subscription Business & Why A Lot of Investors Do Not Like Consumer
Jan 11, 2017 positive
Disclosure
DFJ succeeded in Tesla and SpaceX by staging early capital
“And that's why, you know, we were able to be successful with entities like Tesla or SpaceX. Companies that most people would find as not working well for venture, but the way that we thought about it and how we, you know, got involved in the companies at early…”
Emily Melton Jan 11, 2017 ▶ 15:08 20VC: Why You Should Not Invest From Patterns, Why No Good Business Was Built As An Analogy Of Another & Why The Rise Of The 'Celebrity Investor' Is Concerning with Emily Melton, Partner @ DFJ
Aug 9, 2017 positive
Insight
Quintini: Winning frontier tech companies build end-to-end products with empathetic design
“What I see happening in Frontier now is a humanization of technology, right? Companies are building end-to-end solutions. Even if you're, you know, if you think about the big successes in Frontier, like a Tesla, Nest, Invest an Oculus or Cruz. They're going al…”
Renata Quintini Aug 9, 2017 ▶ 26:57 20VC: The 7 Requirements For Startup Scaling, Why VCs Must Approach Every Conversation with A Yes Mentality & Why We Will See The Humanisation of Technology with Renata Quintini, Partner @ Lux Capital
Jan 11, 2019 bullish
Prediction Held up
Meir in 2019: Tesla will become a $1 trillion company
“I believe that Tesla will be a trillion dollar company.”
Avi Meir Jan 11, 2019 ▶ 25:51 20VC: How Founders Can Really Get The Most Out of Their Board, Why Culture Fit At The Board Level Is Not Discussed Enough & Why Growth and Culture Are 2 Sides of The Same Coin with Avi Meir, Founder & CEO @ TravelPerk
May 27, 2019
Assertion Contradicted
Ralston: Tesla was $445M in debt during SpaceX's early launch failures
“I remember hearing Elon Musk talk about what it was like for him when Tesla was something like four hundred and forty five million dollars in debt. And the first three launches of SpaceX had blown up”
Geoff Ralston May 27, 2019 ▶ 17:37 20VC: Y Combinator's New President, Geoff Ralston on The Single Most Important Perspective An Investor Can Provide A Founder, The Biggest Lessons From Working Alongside Paul Graham & Why You Will Lose As An Investor If You "Profile Invest"
Jul 8, 2019
Disclosure
Bessemer passed on Tesla after failing to foresee its financial viability
“Tesla is the one that is front and center for me. I'm a car geek at hard. I love hardware products, and spent a lot of time with them early on, and just couldn't see the path to viability of the high-end car in a tough automotive time, so I bought the first ca…”
Byron Deeter Jul 8, 2019 ▶ 28:23 20VC: Bessemer's Byron Deeter On Lessons From Investing in 14 $Bn Companies, What The Heck Is Going On In Cloud Today and Why Cloud IPO Floodgates Are About To Burst Open
May 18, 2020 positive
What-if
Helmer: Tesla's success had a near-zero probability ten years ago
“So if you asked me 10 years ago, could these three things all be true? Fully electric cars would become what every automobile company in the world thought was going to be the future. That another firm would actually join the ranks of world-scale automobile com…”
Hamilton Helmer May 18, 2020 ▶ 32:50 20VC: 7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy: Deconstructing Economies of Scale, How To Assess True Market Size, Assessing Risk vs Uncertainty, What "Brand As Power" Really Means with Hamilton Helmer, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Offi
Aug 3, 2020 bullish
Assertion Supported
Most Value in Tesla and SpaceX Was Created After Year 10
“At the 10 year mark was some of the greatest gains. If you look at, okay, at the 10 year mark, where it was Tesla, where it was SpaceX. And there were many, many billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars of value creation still to come.”
Steve Jurvetson Aug 3, 2020 ▶ 27:00 20VC: Steve Jurvetson on 20 Years of Friendship with Elon Musk, How To Analyse Market Timing, Why Venture Does Not Scale & Why He Has Never Sold A Share in Any Company He Holds
Aug 3, 2020 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Peter Thiel Called Tesla a Bankrupt Idea Before Model S Shipped
“So like Tesla, I remember famously Peter Thiel's are saying it's a bankrupt idea. The battery technology will never scale. Batteries will never improve. UVs will never work. And I was like, wow, that was just before the Model S. I mean, literally a week before…”
Steve Jurvetson Aug 3, 2020 ▶ 17:09 20VC: Steve Jurvetson on 20 Years of Friendship with Elon Musk, How To Analyse Market Timing, Why Venture Does Not Scale & Why He Has Never Sold A Share in Any Company He Holds
Jul 15, 2022 bullish
Disclosure
Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford began researching and buying Tesla stock in 2012
“I was working on Tesla in 2000 and 12, and we went on to buy that for various strategies.”
Peter Singlehurst Jul 15, 2022 ▶ 42:49 Peter Singlehurst: The Most Powerful Investor You've Never Heard of | 20VC #907 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 14, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Wood: Tesla stock does not price in its massive autonomous opportunity
“Because we believe the autonomous opportunity is massive and is not priced at all in Tesla stock we would still put Tesla near the top or at the top of the pack.”
Cathie Wood Nov 14, 2022 ▶ 55:32 Cathie Wood: Elon & Twitter; Why Facebook is a Value Stock Now; ARK's Performance | 20VC #949 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 7, 2022 bullish
Insight
Empowered engineers are foundational to top tech companies like Tesla and Apple
“There is nothing more than, more important than empowered engineers. And if you look, you know, if you look at companies like Tesla, SpaceX, Google, Amazon, Stripe, Apple, that's the foundation of every one of those companies, empowered engineers.”
Marty Cagan Dec 7, 2022 ▶ 53:02 Marty Cagan: Product Lessons from Steve Jobs and Elon Musk; Why do we idolize engineers? | 20VC #957 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 7, 2022 positive
Opinion
Tesla's product strategy is phenomenal and tied to its financing
“I would say what Tesla has pulled off is nothing short of amazing. Amazing on every level. Just phenomenal. And their product strategy has been a very visible product strategy. They kind of had to because it tied in so closely with the financing strategy.”
Marty Cagan Dec 7, 2022 ▶ 1:06:23 Marty Cagan: Product Lessons from Steve Jobs and Elon Musk; Why do we idolize engineers? | 20VC #957 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2023 negative
Disclosure
Urban sold his Tesla stock at $700 before the split
“I sold Tesla at like when it was at 700 before split. So it was like one, I don't know, eighth or 10th of what it is now. I made a couple of good ones along the way, but it's like just soul crushing.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:10:42 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 6, 2023 positive
Insight
Zwillinger: Allbirds aspires to Tesla's strategy of product performance over sustainability
“I'd say a company that, that is done a really nice job in an area that I take a lot of inspiration from, would probably be Tesla. Which is around performance and quality of a product and an aesthetic and a beauty that delivers in and of itself. And the free gi…”
Joey Zwillinger Nov 6, 2023 ▶ 48:30 Joey Zwillinger: From $4.1BN to $142M Market Cap;Why Public Markets Have Written Allbirds Off |E1078 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 20, 2023 bullish
Insight
Franceschetti: Hardware works if you want to build trillion-dollar companies
“So if you want to build trillion dollar businesses, hardware works.”
Matteo Franceschetti Nov 20, 2023 ▶ 5:33 Matteo Franceschetti: The Ultimate Hiring Playbook: Five Questions to Ask Every New Hire | E1084 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 20, 2023 positive
Opinion
Franceschetti: Eight Sleep models product evolution and experience on Tesla
“One is Tesla, and the reason why is because of how obsessed they are with the customer experience, right? They are minimal, they are simple, they, the product evolves with software, and so we use Tesla a lot as an example at Eight Sleep”
Matteo Franceschetti Nov 20, 2023 ▶ 1:47:40 Matteo Franceschetti: The Ultimate Hiring Playbook: Five Questions to Ask Every New Hire | E1084 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 6, 2024 negative
Opinion
Peter Wagner: VCs Funding Capital-Intensive Sectors Are Repeating Bubble Mistakes
“Yes. And you know, and you can get away with it sometimes, just like I got away with it, with that early deal. If you can find, you know, other people's money on advantageous terms to sort of fund you through you know, the valley of death there you know, like,…”
Peter Wagner Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 36:46 Peter Wagner: 27 Years of Investing Lessons of Picking Founders, Price Discipline & Reserve | E1123 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 20, 2024
Assertion Supported
SolarCity paid Freshworks $1M annually across 13 separate team accounts
“बेशक, यह एक enterprise व्यापक सौधा नहीं था, लेकिन यह बड़े enterprise की एक team के लिए था, जैसे अगर आपको याद हो, Tesla ने जिस company को खरीदा था, वो दूसरी Elon Musk company Solar City थी, तो हमने तेरह अलग-अलग टीमें इसका उप्योग कर रही थी, वे हमें लगभग एक मिलिय…”
Girish Mathrubootham Apr 20, 2024 ▶ 18:17 Girish Mathrubootham (HINDI): Biggest Product and Pricing Lessons from Scaling to $597M in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2024 negative
Opinion
Asparouhov: ServiceTitan is closer to LVMH than Tesla
“Service Titan is actually closer to LVMH than it is to Tesla. And that's fine. People should, you know, sort of invest in, you know, sort of brands that have, you know, sort of great distribution. Clearly returns can be made there, but let's, you know, sort of…”
Delian Asparouhov Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 59:34 Delian Asparouhov: Inside the Walls of Founders Fund: What the World Does Not See | E1183 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2024 negative
Insight
Asparouhov: Lean startup methodology fails for category-defining tech companies
“It works in the world of like small SaaS businesses where you're trying to make a marginal improvement on a, you know Small, you know, industry, if you're doing workflow software for plumbers, I'm sure that is a, like, reasonable approach. I don't think that E…”
Delian Asparouhov Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 19:06 Delian Asparouhov: Inside the Walls of Founders Fund: What the World Does Not See | E1183 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kant: Tesla will inevitably build the most capable full self-driving AI
“And so to me, Elon has one full self-driving. I think it's inevitable that, that the most capable AI for full self-driving is coming out of Tesla because they've been gathering and building up this data set.”
Eiso Kant Oct 7, 2024 ▶ 7:29 Eiso Kant, CTO @Poolside: Raising $600M To Compete in the Race for AGI | E1211 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2024 positive
Insight
Software-first modular design enables 2-3 year defense hardware cycles
“I think a two, three year cycle is extremely believable, especially if you architect your products to be pretty modular. If you architect your products to be upgrade friendly, if you upgrade your you design your products around a software kind of mentality whe…”
Matt Grimm Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 31:28 Matt Grimm, Co-Founder @Anduril: How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | E1224 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Defense primes risk a Tesla-style disruption if they ignore software
“The thing that we have to avoid is the Tesla moment for the defense sector. If we collectively, including the primes, don't understand that and don't adapt, the same thing is going to happen to defense, As happened to the car industry.”
Torsten Reil Dec 11, 2024 ▶ 0:17 Torsten Reil, Helsing Founder: Raising $828M to Build the Defence Champion of Europe | E1237 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Osika: Tesla is my 10-year public stock buy-and-hold pick
“Some talent play. What comes to mind is Tesla. They're also interestingly positioned outside of software.”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 44:40 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Green: Crypto resembles the tulip craze due to a lack of commercial utility
“Not bearish on crypto, but, like, I think it reminds me a little bit of the tulip craze that you can't actually use crypto to go buy, like, when you could, if I could go buy a Tesla with crypto, it'd be amazing. If I could go to Amazon and use Bitcoin, it'd be…”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:13:34 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 21, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Wilk: Tesla's Trillion-Dollar Valuation Would Be Impossible if Private
“Like Tesla, I'd argue would not be a trillion dollar private company, but because of sort of the cult generation they've developed, the Tesla owners that buy the stock, they're the ones that have pushed it above and beyond any reasonable Sort of EBITDA multipl…”
Jason Wilk Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 11:10 Dave CEO, Jason Wilk: The Best Performing Fund Would Only Back YC Founders on Their Second Time · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 25, 2025
Insight
Gupta: Early startups should avoid brand spend until they reach scale
“So if you're in the early zero to one stage or one plus stage, I would say spend very little on brand. You don't have to because your product is your brand, user is your brand. Invest all the money you have to bring people in. But once you've scaled, if you're…”
Mayur Gupta Apr 25, 2025 ▶ 30:28 20Growth: Inside Kraken's $1.5BN Growth Playbook: What Works, What Doesn't and What No Founders Understand About Growth That Will Change Their Company with Mayur Gupta
Jun 5, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Elon Musk has a 50% chance of stepping down as Tesla CEO
“Can he in the next 18 months find someone better than him for the job? I say actually more than 32%. Yeah, exactly. I'll go 50%.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 1:23:10 Is DPI The Only Thing That Matters? with Sam Lessin, Jason Lemkin & Rory O’Driscoll · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2025 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Tesla is Elon Musk's most politically vulnerable business
“I think if any, it's Tesla only because the truth is electronic vehicle, electric vehicles have a whole bunch of specific subsidies, both around purchase and around, you know, the ability to resell emissions credits to people like GM, right? And all those thin…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 1:05:37 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2025 positive
Opinion
O'Driscoll: SpaceX customers must use it even if they hate it
“The truth is, SpaceX, it's just Such an amazing achievement that even if one of your biggest customers doesn't much like you, they still got to do business with you. That's not quite as true for Tesla.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 0:27 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 14, 2025 neutral
Insight
Tenev: Retail investors lack sub-trillion AI stock investment opportunities
“You've got Tesla, where AI is maybe I don't know, 10, 20% of the story there. So you don't have too many opportunities at sub trillion valuations. So when CoreWeave comes along, that's like AI exposure at a lower level, and people are interested in that.”
Vlad Tenev Jul 14, 2025 ▶ 12:42 Robinhood Founder & CEO, Vlad Tenev: Robinhood’s $85BN Resurgence & Tokenizing SpaceX & OpenAI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 17, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2026
O'Driscoll: Musk will run X without CEO title to appease Tesla
“It's an other person who's really Elon, but won't take the title because it will just irk the people at Tesla too much in current dynamics. But yes, he will be in charge.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 1:17:32 Windsurf x Google x Cognition: Full Breakdown: Who Made Money, Who Did Not · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 neutral
What-if
Deeter: Tesla wouldn't have survived without DOE loan
“Without the, you know, the DOE bailout loan and things, Tesla wouldn't have existed, but what I missed was that Elon's a force of nature, a generational entrepreneur, and he put that company on his back and powered through so many subsequent layers that the ne…”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 35:38 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Deeter: Passed on Tesla Over Roadster Unit Economics
“One of the most famous and most painful for me was Tesla early on. It's on my anti-portfolio. If you go to the Bessemer website, we have a page dedicated to our screw ups, and that's one of mine. And it was because I couldn't fundamentally see how the unit eco…”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 35:21 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Musk's Tesla Deal Will Be a High-Water Mark for CEO Pay
“Elon's case. I don't think that's the norm. I think that that will be the high water mark Not the norm, but I definitely think like all high watermarks, it will push up other people's demands and aspirations.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 8:29 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: 75% of Tesla's Valuation Is Elon Musk's Brand Premium
“If you are valued as a car company, you'd be a valued at around 25% of where you are now. Maybe this is a car company where 25% of our current market cap, and then Elon's special sauce, which is the other 75.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 9:09 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 9:46 Will Cursor Kill Figma? Lightspeed Raises $9B & OpenAI’s $1B from Disney & #1 App in App Store · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2025
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Google almost bailed out Tesla when it faced bankruptcy
“Google almost bailed out Tesla at the last hour when it almost went bankrupt.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 1:13:48 Will Cursor Kill Figma? Lightspeed Raises $9B & OpenAI’s $1B from Disney & #1 App in App Store · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Lemkin: Tesla is months away from allowing owners to profit off robotaxis
“As soon as this really works, and maybe it's only single digit months away, he has millions of people who could be paid more than their lease price to allow the car into the fleet. And when he said this a decade ago, it sounded effing insane. He said that your…”
Jason Lemkin Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 1:16:35 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Feb 5, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Waymo at $110B is cheap compared to Tesla's $500B autonomous valuation
“Tesla trades at 1.2 trillion plus or minus. It's got a hundred million dollar flat car business with declining profitability. Let's value that at two X revenues. That's two hundred billion. So that leaves you a trillion left, right? Trillion from the 1.2 trill…”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 1:10:39 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Feb 5, 2026 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: 80% of Tesla and SpaceX value is the Elon Musk premium
“My mental model is on SpaceX and Tesla. About 80% of the value is the Elon premium and 20% of the value is the actual business is worth.”
Rory O’Driscoll Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 1:19:13 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Feb 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Waymo is burdened by high LiDAR and remote driver costs
“Waymo works, and the problem is cost structure. The Tesla product doesn't quite work yet, but if it does, the cost structure will be lower, right? Waymo has the physical costs of the more expensive cars. It has, obviously, including the LiDAR cost, and then le…”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 1:14:26 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Mar 5, 2026 neutral
What-if
O'Driscoll: Musk's death would cut Tesla 80%, Altman's cuts OpenAI 25%
“Tesla trades at a trillion today. I think if Elon died tomorrow, they traded two hundred billion. OpenAI trades at eight hundred billion today. I think if Sam Altman died tomorrow morning, we traded six hundred billion.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 29:15 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 9, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Cliff Weitzman: Invested one-third of his money into Tesla in 2015
“Now my undergrad was renewable energy engineering. I put one third of my money into Tesla in 20, 25, sorry, 2015.”
Cliff Weitzman May 9, 2026 ▶ 1:26:27 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026
Disclosure
Randle: I lost all my college savings shorting Tesla
“With all of my college savings, I shorted Tesla. And I feel like everyone has gone through this experience. If they were a value investor at some point in their life where it was like, you know, you just, oh my God, Tesla, maybe it's not a fraud, but it's so o…”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 9:38 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Randle: Prediction markets show 70% odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger in two years
“If you look at the poly market Calci odds on a Tesla SpaceX merger, again, you know, not, not that those markets are so big that they're that indicative, but I think the probability that they have on there is something like 70% in the next two years or somethi…”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 19:07 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 22, 2026 positive
Insight
Arora: Enterprises building AI capabilities must adopt Tesla's iterative approach over AI-washing
“My view right now is you have to have the Tesla approach if you're an enterprise that is building AI infused capability, but you can't have the approach of traditional car manufacturers, which are trying to Take a little bit of AI and sort of AI washing their …”
Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 37:44 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Frankel: Tesla received massive non-dilutive government funding under Biden
“Is the non-dilutive government funding that Musk got for Tesla from the Biden administration was huge.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:13:41 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 17, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Macdonald: Waymo, Tesla, and Multiple Other AV Players Will Win Globally
“I think there's going to be more than two winners. Do I think Waymo and Tesla will ultimately be winners? Yes, I do. I don't know who, who's going to bet against either of those, but I think there will be more winners.”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 25:25 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 17, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Waymo and Tesla Will Eventually Have to Partner With Uber
“I think ultimately it's in both of their interests to put their vehicles on our network, even if they have their own robo taxi apps or their own one P apps, even if they work with our competitors on the rideshare side or on the delivery side. I think everyone …”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 27:01 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 31, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Katz: Tesla ingests one billion events per second into ClickHouse
“Tesla, for example, is ingesting a billion events per second into ClickHouse.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 14:30 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Sep 10, 2026 positive
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Tesla is the only other credible competitor to Waymo
“They're the only other competitor to Waymo. With credibility.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 42:56 Jensen Huang Declares AGI Has Arrived | Tesla Launches Cybercabs | Index Pulls Out of Town
Sep 12, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Franceschetti: Eight Sleep will introduce both higher-end and mass-market models like Tesla
“We want to democratize sleep, so the way I always say is, imagine if we were Tesla, we are the Model S. There will be the roadster, so there will be something even better, but you will also see us coming out with the model X and Y and three.”
Matteo Franceschetti Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 44:59 Labour, Engineering, Social Media, GrokBots, Cybercabs: 7 Predictions for How AI Changes the World
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