why aren't all 426 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Sekinger: Almost all billionaires built their wealth through private equity in private companies
“Pretty much almost every billionaire has been built through private equity, which is through their private company.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bimani: A Recession Has Already Started and Will Hit Hard Soon
“Right now, we're getting ready for the recession. I know it started. People are not fully aware of it, but it's going to hit hard in the next couple of months.”
Assertion Contradicted
Weisbrot: California Basic Income Pilot Boosted Housing and Employment by 15-20%
“There was a program that was done with homeless people, I think in California recently, and they gave them like 500 dollars, no questions asked per month for like a year. And at the end of the study, if they made the assumption, some people made an assumption …”
Prediction Held up
Tulla: AI health companion bots will soon communicate and support patients
“Today I think one fix at least will be AI. And the fact that, you know, we will be able to build these companion bots companion AIs that are able to communicate with people, talk to people, and be there when you need support. And that will happen, I think, in,…”
Prediction Held up
Appel: Rite Aid Cannot Survive Against CVS and Walgreens
“I just don't see them, I don't see them survive, because they're like the third wheel, and you've got two strong, nationwide, well-run competitors.”
Assertion Contradicted
Schurig: Seven Fortune 250 Executives Die Annually from Unexpected Heart Attacks
“Stanford School of Business did a did a study, and it's like seven Fortune, 500 or Fortune two 50 CEOs or C level executives die of unexpected heart attacks every single year.”
Assertion Supported
Women-Founded Startups Receive Only 2% to 4% of VC Funding
“In the U S and in Canada, it's two to four percent of VC capital goes to women founded companies.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cox: 50% to 52% of all US men go to jail in their lifetime
“50, 52% of all men in our country go to jail at some point in their lifetime.”
Assertion Contradicted
Weisbrot: Commercial DNA testing companies own and repeatedly re-sample submitted DNA
“So if you're thinking of doing a DNA test, think about that before you do it, because they will own your DNA and they can sample it over and over and over. And that's how you keep getting new updates of the reports that they're creating, because they test it o…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Spiller: There will be a recession by the end of 2023
“And that's kind of the expectation going into this year is by the time we're going out of this year, there will be a recession.”
Assertion Supported
Furman: Postpartum sleep deprivation mirrors tactics used in wartime torture
“When you're not, when you're sleeping in 2:03 hour increments, that's a form of war torture that people use still to this day. Sleep deprivation is a very common form of torture.”
Assertion Contradicted
Weisbrot: Research proves microdosing psilocybin treats PTSD, anxiety, and depression
“Because there's very clear and known research that has shown, you know, microdosing mushrooms can significantly help with or get rid of PTSD, stress, anxiety, depression.”
Assertion Supported
Niedel: US supplement brands do not require pre-market testing
“You can create a supplement. You and I, Sean, can create a supplement together. We don't have to have it tested. We can take it to market. We can manufacture it. We can say it solves everything under the sun. And until the FDA or FTC pushes us to be able to ba…”
Assertion Partly supported
Freckling: 250B real-time ad auctions happen daily versus 15B stock trades
“So it, there's two hundred and fifty billion real-time auctions per day, and that compares to fifteen billion stock trades per day.”
Assertion Supported
Freckling: Russian SDK Pushwoosh was embedded in US military applications
“A Russian software vendor called Pushwoosh was found to be installed in military and U S government agencies because they had they had disguised themselves. I think they had purported to have American employees based in Washington, DC, and this SDK, which was …”
Assertion Contradicted
Weisbrot: Research proves psychedelics cure depression
“There's tremendous amount of research that has proven without a shadow of a doubt that, that psychedelics have been amazing for curing depression. Curing depression. Curing treatment-resistant depression”
Assertion Supported
Weisbrot: Stem cell brain injections can reverse stroke damage after six months
“There's evidence that stem cells that a stem cell injection directly into the brain can Undue damage from a stroke six months after, more than six months after.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kozeski: Boutique advisory firms decide billionaire philanthropy grants like MacKenzie Scott's
“There are entire firms that exist and they have two or three clients at most, and their job is just to give away these funds. I mean, it's been a race for all nonprofits to try to identify You know, who's that clearing house for the Mackenzie Scott's of the wo…”
Assertion Supported
Pearl: Canadian authorities ordered crypto exchanges to freeze trucker assets
“So what did the Canadian authorities do? They instructed you know, the various exchanges like Coinbase, for instance to basically freeze the assets of the Canadians that had accounts there.”
Assertion Supported
Pearl: US states and Ivy Leagues are developing NFT diploma certificates
“I know that several companies are working with a few U.S. States, and obviously outside of the U.S. And with some you know, public organizations as well, like colleges and Ivy League universities on NFTing their diplomas, their certificates, and so on.”
Assertion Supported
Lakritz: Post-COVID Seed Rounds Have Ballooned Up to $50 Million
“Where you raise the seed amount, where, what you're talking about around half and five million dollars before COVID. And today it can be somewhere between five and 50. Even I've seen a seed investment.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ben Nun: Cooling systems are the biggest electricity consumers on the grid
“It was very obvious that the biggest consumer on the grid is cooling systems.”
Assertion Contradicted
Strauss: Challenging psychedelic trips often yield better outcomes than easy ones
“Oftentimes people who have a challenging experience might actually come out of it feeling better than they did an experience that was perhaps easier.”
Assertion Contradicted
Weisbrot: 80% of American adults take antidepressants
“Eight out of 10 adults in America are on some sort of antidepressant.”
Assertion Supported
Frasier: 41% of US Podcast Listeners Are Non-White
“Brands are missing out on this, and this is a three trillion dollar audience, and not only is it a three trillion dollar audience, but 41% of podcast listeners in the U.S. Are non-white.”
Assertion Contradicted
Weisbrot: Early Vietnam War Military Research Found LSD Cured PTSD
“Even I believe during Vietnam, in the early days of Vietnam the military was doing research with PTSD and other trauma with LSD, and they found that it was basically curing soldiers' PTSD.”
Prediction Held up
Weisbrot: Psychedelic Biotech Will Engineer Non-Hallucinogenic Compounds for Mental Health
“I believe very firmly that the industry is heading in this direction where we will synthesize or alter the DNA structure of these substances so that you can get the mental health benefits, but have no fear whatsoever of there being a hallucinogenic aspect.”
Assertion Partly supported
Slack Promoted Praise While Ignoring 50,000 Complaints Online
“Slack was promoting this like Twitter wall of praise that they had, but what they didn't promote was that there was a website where there were over 50,000 comments about why people hated Slack.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Stephen Keery expects the Biden administration to eliminate the step-up in basis.
“So actually passing on was actually a good way to get a new basis. That is very likely to change as well under this administration.”
Assertion Supported
Weisbrot: Crime rates have declined since the advent of gaming
“And in reality, what we've seen is a decline in crime rates since the advent of gaming.”
Assertion Supported
Gisenau: Microsoft launched a free app competing with ChitChattr
“We had an incident about a week ago or so where Microsoft have launched a free app, a portion of which competes with an element of our application.”
Assertion Supported
Cien: French payroll taxes equal 100% of an employee's take-home salary
“If you want to pay 5000 that lands in the pocket of that employee, you would basically have to pay another 5000 In, under the form of different taxes. Unemployment insurance, medical insurance, health insurance, and lots of different other insurance and taxes.”
Assertion Supported
Weisbrot: America is the only Western democracy without universal healthcare
“America claims to be the strongest, best country in the world, but it is the only Western democracy that doesn't have healthcare for all.”
Assertion Partly supported
Blanchett: Origen Air's purifier kills COVID in under four seconds
“This is part of an air purifier, which can actually kill COVID in under four seconds. And take out carcinogens from the air.”
Assertion Supported
Blanchett: Regular indoor plants do not clean the air
“Plants actually don't clean the air. We think they do, but they don't.”
Assertion Contradicted
Weisbrot: 14% of Coinbase staff resigned over Brian Armstrong's non-political mandate
“And I think his name is Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, said basically, we are a non-political organization. If you don't like that, you can quit. And I think five, 14% of the company quit”
Prediction Held up
Siddar: Real-time AI translators will eliminate language barriers by 2025
“There will be like a real-time AI translator in five years that you can communicate with everybody without even knowing languages.”
Assertion Contradicted
Narasin's first institutional investment, LendingClub, was the decade's largest tech IPO
“The first institutional investment I ever made was a company called Lending Club, which when it went public was the largest tech IPO of the decade.”
Assertion Partly supported
Parker Conrad's Rippling is worth $17.8B after his Zenefits peaked at $5.5B
“Xenefits was worth about five and a half billion at peak when he got fired. And his next company, Rippling, which I invested in, is currently worth 17.8 billion dollars.”
Assertion Partly supported
McGregor: Delivered world's first 2G GSM real-time billing system in 90 days
“And then in 90 days we delivered the world's first digital to GGSM real time billing system for a BT zone.”
Prediction Held up
Rischitelli: AI Platforms Like ChatGPT Will Implement Advertising Models Soon
“Because there's gotta be a, you know there's gonna be an ad model here very, very soon. They're already testing it out.”
Assertion Supported
Weisbrot: Solo Founder Sold AI App Builder to Wix for $80M
“There was this other guy who started a business where like you just Tell the AI the app you want to build and it builds it for you. And he ended up selling this to Wix for eighty million dollars after being an operation of six months.”
Assertion Contradicted
Millar: Ancient Greeks sentenced lawbreakers to theater attendance instead of prison
“I think, you know, in Greek, in the history, in Greek times, if somebody was caught breaking the law, they didn't send them to prison. They sentenced them to so many nights at the theater.”
Assertion Contradicted
Simhi: Most of Apple's Sales Come from E-Commerce and Its Website
“And even Apple, which is innovation company, but it's still e-commerce company and most of their sales are coming from their e-commerce, from their website and from their e-commerce activities.”
Assertion Contradicted
Evan Marks: Raw emotions like joy and panic last only 9-10 seconds
“You know, the body knows that when we feel joy and we feel panic, it's literally nine or 10 seconds. You're in that, that emotion is how we attach behavior and experience to it because the body wants to wrote homostatically, right? So we always, the body wants…”
Assertion Partly supported
Omeed Tabiei: 18-Year-Old YC Founders Faced Backlash Over Open-Source Violations
“There were these founders that had been admitted to Y Combinator. It was like these two 18 year old kids. And essentially they had forked some technology, some AI wrapper essentially, and they didn't read the source licensing for the code. And essentially they…”
Assertion Supported
Colbertson: Founders can legally delay Form D filings until after receiving funds
“You don't have to file anything with the SEC until 15 days from the first day, from the first investment that you receive from your investor.”
Assertion Supported
Sadan: Website Traffic Is Shifting From Google Search to AI Chat Platforms
“Historically, when we talked about SEO of website, of how websites are being found, SEO was kind of equal to Google, but that world is shifting and we're seeing The increase of traffic from some of these chat platforms, because people are now not just going to…”