The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 45 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 45 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Zach Resnick predicts Bitcoin SV will see petabyte-sized blocks
“And I think we're going to see petabyte blocks over the coming years.”
Booth: Bitcoin Will Eventually Become the Global Reserve Currency
“I'm a huge fan of Bitcoin, a huge fan of Bitcoin, because I think that it'll move to a reserve status that other currencies will be pegged to eventually.”
Pompliano: US Dollar Will Lose Global Reserve Status in His Lifetime
“And ultimately I think in my lifetime, the U S dollar is not going to be the global reserve currency.”
Latka predicts he will run for US President and win in 2036
“I plan to run for president and win in 2036.”
Latka predicts he will run a $100B hedge fund
“I will run the world's largest hedge fund with a hundred billion dollars in assets under management.”
Martin: Remote work projected to reach 62% of US workforce by 2030
“So by 2027, it's projected to be 50% of the U.S. Workforce, and actually by 2030, we're projected to be at 62%, dependent upon the data set that you take a look at.”
Latka predicts a SaaS company will soon IPO with under 10 employees
“Greg, I say one day, I think very soon there's going to be someone that takes a company public with less than 10 FTEs, a SaaS company.”
Assaraf: Salesforce, Confluent, and Snowflake will enter observability
“I actually mentioned that Salesforce, I think, will get in our space some way, somehow, and I think I'm fluent. We'll also step into the observability space. I think also Snowflake will get there because it's just that makes no sense for companies that control…”
Zickerman predicts MyWiFi Networks will reach at least a $20M valuation
“We don't do very much marketing. We don't do any sales, and I think that once we do that, I will I'll be back on your show and telling you that I got at least 20.”
Booth: Interest rates are going to become very negative
“Interest rates are, they're going negative. They're going to be very negative.”
Kineshanko predicts multiple blockchains will act as trillion-dollar digital gold
“I think there's going to be multiple blockchains that act like gold, digital gold, and multiple blockchains worth trillions of dollars.”
Rachleff: Automated Investment Services Will Ultimately Manage More AUM Than ETFs
“So that gives me faith that ultimately automated investment services are actually going to manage more assets than even ETFs.”
Winkler predicts all oil geosteering will be automated within five years
“But I think it'll eventually prevail so that in five years, nobody, nobody's manually doing GPS during the old way.
They might be, might not be using hard software, but I think in five years, people will all be doing it in this computed automated fashion.
That…”
Sakil: Industry-ready quantum computers are three to five years away
“Industry availability of these computers would take at least three years. We estimate three to five years”
Purwar: 2020s Will Experience Climate-Induced Depression Similar to 1930s
“I was really interested in doing a PhD in economics on climate change induced financial depression, and I was working with Professor Gary Gordon in Yale, so I'm a Yale graduate in the master's program, and I really, really wanted to do that because I was obses…”
Smith: Fossil fuels will provide 80% of energy for 20 more years
“80% or more of our energy comes from fossil fuels and will in spite of all the focus on renewables for the next 20 years.”
RevGenius Founder Jared Robin: IPO Is the Ultimate Goal
“IPO is the goal. Like no matter how stupid that sounds, like that's where we're going.”
Holland Expects Next Funding Round to Value SalesScreen North of $120M
“Right now you know, it's definitely going to be north of a hundred and twelve million, hundred and twenty million dollars.”
Tringas: Shared earnings instruments will eventually qualify for capital gains treatment
“And so we do believe that, you know, over time this will continue to be categorized more and more as equity risk, which the tax code tends to reward with capital gains treatment.”
Nathan Latka predicts US will never subsidize electricity for cryptocurrency miners
“The U S I do not think will ever give electrical subsidies to miners setting up shops in Wyoming.”
Booth: China will devalue its currency
“And if China is going to devalue the currency, which they will devalue their currency, right?”
Latka: China will not surpass US GDP by 2030
“I don't see China actually threatening the U.S. When it comes to them surpassing our GDP by 2030.”
Skurman projects Niche will reach $100M ARR with 10,000 clients
“I'm confident we're building a business that's going to have 10,000 paying clients averaging 10,000 dollars a year and building a hundred million dollars of recurring revenue.”
Vishnoi: Tagovie can easily reach a $100M valuation
“Ah, but like our focus is not sell the company right now because we can see like there is a really good growth and we can take this company to a hundred million easily.”
Stein: Betterment plans to IPO rather than sell to an acquirer
“We've always said we're going to make it a public company. We've always had our sights set on the long term. We're building an institution for the next century. We're not interested in selling out right now.”
Latka predicts he will take a $100B REIT public before age 60
“I will take a REIT public before I turn 60 with again, a hundred billion dollars in real estate assets under management.”
Froda Expects Elevated Credit Losses to Normalize Back to 3%
“Before This current macro squeeze, we were around like three. It's a little bit elevated now, but we project that we will go back to around the three, 3.5%.”
Kumar: Kovai.co targets $100M run rate by 2030
“And the objective for us is to build a hundred million dollar run rate business by 2030, like, sooner, sooner if possible.”
Mariantis: Surefire Local targets a $125M to $150M PE or strategic exit
“We're at a stage now when we're going to do a private equity deal or strategic. And, you know, that's going to probably be somewhere in the 125 to hundred and fifty million range.”
Latka: Corwin will transition Austin AI into SaaS within five years
“If I'm a betting man, like I predict that's where you'll be in five years, but tell me I'm wrong.”
Quilici predicts YouMail will exit as a nine-figure business
“If you keep that up, this is going to be a nine digit plus business when it goes, why would I jump out now?”
Godard Abel predicts the software market will 10x over 30 years.
“And the good news for us, I think it's going to continue another 30 years. And this is, I think, some battery ventures data. But it's, you know, the market's going to 10 X again.”
Luis: Casebook PBC targets a $16M to $20M valuation
“So I figured, you know, based on where the market's sitting and on numbers that we're doing and figuring something in the 16 to twenty million dollar range.”
BitClout will likely eventually offer a native gated newsletter
“So, like, the possibility that BitClout will eventually offer a premium newsletter where you can do a long form post to your top X holders of the coin, the possibility that actually is pretty high, I think. Very high.”
Kokakar: 50.9% of Americans will probably freelance by 2027
“Like for instance freelancing by 20, 27 about more majority, 50.9% of the Americans would probably venture into freelancing.”
Caucci expects 1Huddle's next funding round to target a $30M+ valuation
“I'd love a fifty million dollar valuation, but I probably think we'll probably be somewhere in like the thirties. I think that's a reasonable range to be in.”
Latka predicts Hootsuite will sell for $750 million soon
“Probably going to sell Hootsuite for seven hundred fifty million bucks here soon.”
Scudamore: 1-800-GOT-JUNK Will Reach $1 Billion on Its Own
“We know that one 800 got junk on its own will get to a billion.”
Brian Scudamore predicts WOW 1 DAY PAINTING will eclipse 1-800-GOT-JUNK
“I know for sure. Wow. One day painting will one day be bigger than one, 800 got junk just because the market is bigger.”
Cisco: Select will target a $40M pre-money valuation
“I think we'll be in the neighborhood of like 40, Pre-fifty post. It's possible it goes higher than that.”
Kidron: Oramed will probably enter the Chinese market before the US
“And with the Chinese FDA, we're probably going to get to the market even before the United States.”
Sweeney: Clarify Medical will exit between $500 million and $1 billion
“Well, I don't do companies that aren't, don't hit a billion, so that's my goal.
I'd say, you know, it'll be somewhere between half a billion and a billion on exit value.”