AI

“We had, like, a 120 investigators using technology, ah, to see what was going on, along with the AI. And that combination cut down the fall by 90%”

“I think that machine learning is, has hit an inflection point in the past few years artificial intelligence, machine learning, whatever we want to call it To the point where, ah, we're starting to see, ah, these, ah, dreams that we've had for 30 plus years in …”

“AIS was invented in 1960. Yes, 1960. It was mandated in 2002.”

“The public thinks it's more dangerous than it actually is, so there is a whole segment of the public that will be extremely scared about the potential of AI, and that need, you know, the real dangers and the false dangers need to be explained.”

“There are people out there in Europe that, that have argued for the fact to kind of study neurons and neurons and neural networks natural neural networks in all the details, and then build giant supercomputers to simulate this very accurately, and somehow they…”

“I don't think there's going to be like one special day with this big explosion. They're going to get better and better. It's going to take a while.”

“AI is still basically a collection of idiot savants.”

“But we're not there yet. We're not even close.”

“And I have a three-part diagnosis, which is that it's fallen in love with statistics, it's fallen in love with big data, and it's forgotten its roots.”

“And to me it feels like, Big data. Maybe six or seven years ago where companies were real waking up and realizing we have all these data assets. We need to do something with them. And that led to the rise of Hadoop and the Hadoop vendors and then, you know, a …”

“At the end of the day running a large public regulated enterprise it's all about being able to reduce the cost of operations being able to target new customer segments. Having AI is is a cherry on top.”

“So AI will have business value first in specialized applications.”

“You could imagine a case where, you know, maybe the top five percent of physicians, you know, you're not going to get better then, right? Maybe not the top 10%. But as you get down that stack, you know, AI's probably going to do a better job, right?”

“So I think as, insofar as that continues to happen, Those people are gonna lose a lot of money.”

“When you build something like this, when you set out to build something like this, you start to take responsibility for how is it going to be used in the world. As you frame it out, as you put it out there, as you say to the world, here is a cool thing that te…”

“We are pretty queasy about, you know, AI in a box. Press this button, AI a thing, it'll predict for you, you're going to be great. We make a tool, we frame it as a tool for data professionals on purpose. The idea is there should be a person making these, you k…”

“I'm not a big fan of the word AI. It's kind of, has become overloaded. It's very pop culture-ish. It means different things in different contexts.”

“That at the end of the day, if people can't interpret it, if people can't make sense of it, if people can't trust it, then it really doesn't matter what you did.”

“All data science And all AI and all ML is fundamentally vertically specific. Which is the dirty secret about AI and ML powered businesses. They are fundamentally vertical problems.”

“Much better information is available to a much broader audience, so there's still gonna be a crazy arms race, but it's gonna be far more actors in that race.”

“Some of the more sophisticated strategies where you really have to understand the nuances, and maybe it's structured products, maybe it's structured credit. We're doing things where companies are being, you know, split apart, and they're selling different piec…”

“The bar is not to be hundred percent accurate. The bar is search tomes and 500 humans, right? And as it turns out that bar is not that hard to beat with AI.”

“I don't think it's true at all, so there are some things that people can do in a second that AI can automate, and there are other things that it can't”

“Most of why I don't think we should trust AI right now is that the current techniques that people are using are simply too brittle to earn the trust that we're giving them.”

“Terminator isn't happening anytime soon. First of all, because the technology isn't there, but second of all, because there is this, I mean, like a lot of these, I think, errors that people made come from anthropomorphizing AI.”

“The hardest problem in AI is coming up with a representation. Once you've done that, the rest follows, and when you don't do that, you don't really get very far”

“AI can be a great tool for democracy. It is also unfortunately an amazing tool for authoritarianism.”

“The real danger of AI is not that computers will get too smart and take over the world. The real danger is that computers are too stupid, and they've already taken over the world, right? Computers are making decisions about us the whole time, and they're dumb,…”

“And it's not only hard to develop in the lab, but once you develop it and put it in the real world, there's a whole new set of categories of ways it can go wrong.”

“Every company that's doing anything substantive with AI probably suffers from any of these problems, it's just a few of them have actually, ah, made the headlines for it”

“It's very hard for what we do to lead with, you know, AI because you, you're bound to disappoint, because the generic case is very, very hard to solve”

“And I don't believe anybody has a good view as to when will match human intelligence, but it's not going to happen in the next decade, not going to happen in the next two or three decades. It's going to take much longer.”

“I don't buy that AI will be accessible to people who don't have a programming background anytime soon, right? So, but it will be part of, you know, machine learning will be part of the tool set of Any programmers, but it would still be, you know, for kind of m…”

“In the long run, what I see is you basically can generate a whole movie or something like this from just a book, right? So you kind of, you're helping Hollywood in a sense creating fully featured blockbuster films just by looking at some texts.”

“Like, you're not unique anymore when you're using AI in a company at this point, you actually Basically you have to use it just to compete with the massive scale of data and these kinds of things.”

“Ultimately it's all the same thing. It's all the same trend, which is basically turning companies from sort of like analog companies that run on, you know, sending Excel spreadsheets around with a lot of manual processes into companies that are intelligent and…”

“That the data seems to show is that companies who invest in robotics, automation, AI grow. But it's companies that don't that shed the job.”

“Increasingly people are finding that this data exhaust is not well suited to AI, to advanced ML use cases.”

“Applying AI is not a substitute for building great products. The kind of same principles of delivering value to users, of managing kind of their attention, all of those principles hold. You know, AI is just a technique. It's just an underlying technology that …”

“The 10 X developers, the 10 Xer developers, they are not going to be a hundred X. They're going to be a thousand X. The 10 X lawyers, they're going to be a thousand X. The 10 X VCs, they're going to be a thousand X. The 10 X doctors, they're going to be a thou…”

“There's always going to be a pattern of go big to get some result and then compress it back.”

“The guy who invented the term is on record as saying I made up the term to get money”

“It's really for the first half of the life of artificial intelligence, people thought it had nothing to do with data whatsoever.”

“Enterprise data knowledge is the durable moat in AI, I'd argue the only durable one”

“Like, if I just took a data set and I said, here are all your outliers, it's actually less helpful than saying, hey, across this principal component, I want to know what's an outlier. And so kind of back to the whole human in the loop paradigm, I think it's ve…”

“If the web made the cost of distribution essentially free for businesses, what AI is doing now is AI is making the cost of cognition essentially free.”

“I think today, you know, we're kind of in the analog computer phase of AI, where You know, ah, these systems, they output things. Errors compound. They're not very reliable.”

“I think the real power of AI for In, in the next one or two years is enabling these non-experts to be able to participate in the workflows that traditionally experts will do.”

“If you wanna take AI and like Make it like be widely accessible and like regularly used by every person in the world. You shouldn't expect people to be great prompt engineers. You should work on the user's behalf and try to understand their underlying intent a…”

“We're entering a world where, first of all, every brand's gonna absolutely flood the zone with content. That's gonna make the bar go up for the digital experiences that really engage us.”

“The job of someone turning squares into rectangles all day for banner ads, that job's been replaced by AI.”

“And so I'm starting to wonder if value-based pricing models are really going to replace time-based pricing models and a lot of the functions of like, very sophisticated work. And also, what are the tools that allow us to know how to price our work, right? But …”

“What I would say the number one risk of this technology is, which is the sort of unequal access element to it. Like the version of the world that I fear most is like, there's two or three mega companies that like lock everything down in like the early days.”

“If I were to bet on where like the global nexus necessarily would be, like if you're accounting for the fact that like, you know, there are things happening outside of the US, I think New York is a very strong candidate.”

“A lot of enterprise companies sort of over pivoted on AI, but then couldn't really show traction, right?”

“If what you were trying to do is maximize the multiple that your software company was trading at, then AI is the enemy because all the multiple expansion has moved from modern data stack to AI.”

“I do think separate to all this, SaaS is going to be a bit more usage-based and metered anyway. I think the days of, like, seats above all are starting to fade away. AI is going to accelerate it, but I think generally speaking, people are kind of realizing tha…”

“I think genuinely customer service is very much in like the kill zone of AI or whatever. I think it's really you know, it's a very vulnerable space if you don't move with the times.”

“What we encourage those people to do is just work out a way to dip their toe in. So like, hey, how about if Fin only works with your free customers? How about if Fin only works in the languages you don't speak? How about if Fin only works on the errors that yo…”

“I have learned the hard way that it's not that transferable. You actually need, if you're trying to push the state of the art, you need people who have proven experience in the very, very specific narrow scope of problem that you're trying to solve.”

“And we're currently at the 13 50 scan, and within two to three years, With a lot more AI we think we're gonna get to a 500 dollar 10 minute full body MRI.”

“I think radiologists will not be replaced by AI. They will be replaced by radiologists using AI.”

“AI can already, in many cases, do a better job at finding potential cancer in Medical imaging.”

“So what we do at Ezra, or one of the things we do is we are able to do the scan fewer times, which results in a noisier image, but we have trained AIs to essentially learn what noise looks like in an MRI machine and just, like, erase the noise.”

“AI can generate content that has gone from laughably bad to, like, better than the bottom 25% of marketing employees to, like, maybe better than the bottom 80% of marketing employees and on a trajectory to continue progressing there.”

“We don't have any equivalent set of theories for intelligence or artificial intelligence. We have a lot of theories of how some bits of it might work. But we do not have a theory of what we have and what, and in what sense is what we have is different and the …”

“The core technology has decades before the full impact is felt.”

“AI doesn't conform to that model. You need fast access to everything in order to build an AI model.”

“I think there'll be something like eighty billion dollars invested in 2024 in AI.”

“There's probably some pricing arbitrage in other categories where people aren't paying attention.”

“We, I mean, and these are just guesses, but we think that the average company in 18 to 24 months should be two to three to five percentage points more gross, have more gross profit.”

“You would think that AI would be biased to like be soft on AI output, but it actually isn't like, it's actually very good at critiquing its own output.”

“I suspect that that people won't really have a choice because their interface with the world is effectively largely mediated by private companies. So if you have an iPhone and you'll have an AI, if you me using salesforce.com for your CRM, It will have AI func…”

“This is not a technology that you can learn through PowerPoint that your juniors have presented to you, and you tick off. This is like the internet in 93 or 94, which unless you actually used it and started to grok what it meant, You would not be able to expla…”

“Where 70% of people in China and India are optimistic. Only 30% optimistic about these topics in the UK and the US. They actually explicitly want to have less AI.”

“I think that AI might, Sort of accelerate that trend as well. Because people will actually want to go see the artist, the musician actually perform.”

“So I think what will happen is the price of the average value of legal services or of accounting of marketing will go down. But if you can perform above average, I think people are going to put a real premium on that, because that's still going to be a very ra…”

“AI may be able to do all the legal drafting of the documentation, and it may be able to do all the presentations you need for the investors, but it's not going to actually get on the phone and get the right people in the room. And I think that human connectivi…”

“People tend to jump right to full automation when really what is incredibly valuable in the short run is augmentation of people on, on aspects of what they do.”

“I don't think there's a function at RAMP that doesn't use AI in some part of their job.”

“You are not going to manage your AI separately from your databases separately, from your network separately, from your security separately. Everything makes more sense when it is managed together and when we can assemble the full picture for you.”

“For the longest time in the history of the company, we've been careful about using the words AI. We thought they were, you know, bullshit words mostly.”

“Every time you add productivity, you add complexity, meaning that you have less and less of an understanding of what it is you're doing... So a lot of the value shifts from just creating that thing to understanding how it's going to behave, how it's changing o…”

“Right now we'd be lucky to solve, you know, two percent, three percent, five percent of the cases with AI.”

“And I think AI on top of that is going to give us maybe another order of magnitude or two in terms of, you know, what a human can produce functionally.”

“Maybe in a year it's going to be 20%, maybe, but it's going to be gradual.”

“There is no company that has made any significant progress in conscious, self-aware, self-reflective AI. And hence, it's very hard to predict when it will ever happen because we're making no progress towards it.”

“Currently, the top programmers don't actually benefit that much from AI, but they're informing AI a lot, and they're giving better training data to it.”

“Now, what do really wealthy people currently have where AI still hasn't done that yet, but we will obviously in the next few years. It's like a billionaire can have a personal tutor for their kids. AI will be a personal tutor for your kids.”

“And I would expect there to be even more in AI. We'll have kind of like the MongoDB, the Elastic, the Red Hat of AI, which are going to be like open source AI, AI companies.”

“I believe the policy makers will require it to be shared across as some sort of kind of like a fundamental infrastructure for all.”

“As we've seen over the past year popularity doesn't necessarily translate into commercial traction, and popularity is pretty fleeting in the world of AI.”

“While 64% of, you know, CTOs in our guild had adopted AI in some form or the other in the last 12 months, 62% of those that had adopted AI were underwhelmed by the impact it had on their organization.”

“This is AI that in three to five years is going to be able to run companies.”

“People Kind of go through the same iterations. New people come to the space or possibly maybe it's more the business side get really excited by the prospect of what AI or data science or neural networks, whatever iteration we're in can do. And then we kind of …”

“So I think we're a few years away from just like replacing data engineers, which has been the goal for what it feels like a decade or plus now.”

“There's you know, an interesting case to be made that there may be some repatriation with the AI emergence.”

“We published the seed deck at somewhere on the internet, and you can see there was like this master plan, and AI was part of it.”

“The difference is the energy is very different where I think most companies I meet with and happen to be in New York and meeting lots of banks. The energy is like absolutely in the category of how many use cases can I apply this to? How do I start to lean in m…”

“Like, we think the TAM of our category goes up because of AI and the business model doesn't get like severely disrupted in the sense of we used to be selling seats and now all of a sudden something totally different, it's seats and then something in addition t…”

“The amount of people and money being put into AI, it's going to keep going up, but again, the low hanging fruits being done now. So yeah, I think we'll continue to see the tailing off of growth.”

“Definitely I feel like we are more, I can tell we're more advanced users of AI than anybody else, because people can keep complaining about all the problems with AI, and I'm always like, I don't have any of those problems, you know.”

“And if you cannot depend on this to be right all the time, as opposed to slightly more of the time, then you either can't use it, or you have to use it in very different ways to the ways you could use it if it was always right.”

“We're still at that beginning of, like, forcing it to do deterministic, forcing it to be a deterministic system, which of course it isn't.”

“So I firmly believe that being an investment banking junior won't look the same as it looked five years ago. I definitely believe the same for investors, for lawyers, for everyone else. But I actually don't really think that that will decrease the amount of jo…”

“We think that there's going to be an entirely new productivity suite for how humans, how experts, want to interface with AI without having to get in the weeds in code”

“We will still be deploying AI. In its current form as a chatbot in 10 years.”

“And I think the number one problem in all of AI is elongating the context window.”

“And I think it's a little bit What tools we build, what bets we make as a society, what rules we make, I think that's going to be decided over the next, like, 10 years.”

“Indeed, for sure. I mean in, in the interview process, whether we are hiring for An executive, or whether we are hiring for a seller, or whether we are hiring for an engineer if they do not have the curiosity and haven't, do not have like a thoughtful idea aro…”

“I actually think that now, probably in two years, you can actually, actually achieve things that you would have done before in 15 years.”

“Generations of people have developed clever methods of encoding priors about how they think an artificial intelligence should reason. And encoding it into the model, and all of this gets wiped out by scale and, you know, planning, like, basically, like, search…”

“And so I think it's like every couple of months, the time horizon that the AIs are capable of doing is doubling or something, something crazy. Maybe, maybe every six months the time horizon doubles”

“Like, coding agents are at the moment the first, like, pretty successful agentic products built on top of AI.”

“I don't think anyone has any doubts anymore that we're now on track to reach human level capabilities and intelligence. And in that world, 29 trillion dollars of knowledge work rewrites itself, right?”

“There's so much money in AI and it only becomes increasingly so that the amount of people that can talk about these things in public and educate and get more people involved by spreading knowledge is ever smaller.”

“I think we will be able to make some large scientific discoveries in the next few years.”

“There is this famous meter plot, which shows how long of a task AI is capable of robustly automating, and it's been kind of consistently doubling at that time every half a year, I think and it's now in like some hours so maybe a couple hours.”

“But without AI, China definitely will rise to be the global hegemony. They're just gonna outrun America.”

“Even Elon's talking about building fabs now, because he sees the shortages in the world, right? There's a lot of semiconductor-related shortages for building out AI”

“AI is under earning the value that it's producing in the world, right? By a significant margin already today.”

“Over the next couple of years, I would say diminishing doubts on the ROI of AI ideally. So faster time to success larger and larger use cases being built and really democratization of building tools with AI in enterprise.”

“A lot of the, like, adverse reaction about from the math community about AI is actually coming from the fact that they cannot verify an informal solution.”

“We still feel like we cannot fully elaborate and emphasize the thing that we are seeing that is the next frontier of AI. That is a generation and verification loop. That is the discovery of verified knowledge.”

“It's probably the first AI to solve a research conjecture completely end-to-end and self-verifies. That means the output are fully verified, a hundred percent correct.”

“And we're still at the stage of, you know, taking a PDF of your catalog and putting it in your company website as we try and work out what we should do with AI.”

“Tell that next time you hear a software developer saying, like, AI is a completely different thing, and nobody has ever abstracted software like this before, like, yeah, we've been doing this for 30 years, 50 years.”

“The one way this is unquestionably different is that with all the other platform shifts, we knew what the physical limits of the science were.”

“I think, a thing I tell a lot of my colleagues is that we're really in the silly times of mobile phones, and then if we get really lucky, maybe what we're currently working on is like the Nokia 33 20, like a good phone, but it's not yet the smartphone. It's no…”

“The other area I would push into is if you are somewhat convinced by the idea that artificial intelligence as a concept, right, the idea of, like, computers not just executing pre, predetermined functions, but, like, non-deterministically making decisions and …”

“A lot of the value you can provide will probably be less on the agent side. It will be less on the model intelligence. There will be more about how do you help people organize their work”

“We have reasons to believe the journey is accelerating so that the steps are going to get bigger and bigger.”

“The really interesting thing is it's also uncorrelated to all the other biases that are within an organization. A team of people working together will tend to develop A set of biases. And that doesn't mean that AI doesn't have biases, but they're uncorrelated …”

“If you accept as the truth that we're going to be running at the limit, then what that means is that the way to get more intelligence is to be more efficient. We can't get more intelligence by applying more force if we're already at the limit. We have to be mo…”

“Whenever AI is further developed and further deployed. It's an opportunity for our business. So, so this is you know, we're very explicitly trying to develop our ecosystem because that's good business for us.”

“I think there's a chance for the rest of the world to catch up to China in the sense that you know, we can understand the benefits of working together as a community to build technologies for AI in a way that I think China has frankly been leading.”

“I believe that open technologies for AI are inherently the safest way of building AI.”

“We do believe that the world of Likersh is not that far, where AI will design the systems it needs to train and run the next generation of AI.”

“Accounting is difficult. It's not something that is just purely text in text out. And so it requires the ability for like AIs to be able to, you know, perform lots of actions over long periods of time and actually you know, be coherent over that period of time…”

“Human labor would have very little value left.”

“AIs seem Significantly better at engineering and grungy stuff and sort of just keeping trying than they seem to be at conceptual breakthroughs, but their ability to do sort of these. Breakthroughs, especially in easy to verify domains are improving. And like, …”

“They seem much better at sort of accomplishing hard results and easy to verify results than they are at sort of contextualizing things, understanding the broader picture, understanding what would be you know, a good or bad choice in the broader context.”

“If you end up in a system where basically AI's are running anything, if anyone sort of either puts like sort of secret objectives into that AI or has overt control of those AI's, then they could sort of just directly take over.”

“And then it turned out that somewhere along this transition, so at some point in 20, 29, you went from AIs that were kind of misaligned and reward hacky and sloppy and weren't really trying to do the right thing to AIs that are like competently scheming agains…”

“Like, I don't think it's the case that most people in like DC would correctly answer that like the largest mathematical breakthroughs over the last two months have vast majority been from AI, which my understanding is that's true. At least if you measure size …”

“And as bullish and excited as I am about AI, I'm not a believer in this crazy hard takeoff. I think, yes, things will accelerate, but there are certain things that will just require time because of physics and constraints in the real world, such as like long-t…”

“I think we can basically predict where AI will certainly have superhuman capabilities. And those are all scenarios and all domains where we can either have a simulation and or a verification tool.”

“We're just nowhere near having enough training data for biology.”

“And my theory here after thinking about this for quite some time is largely dependent on the elasticity of the demand of the product when its prices go down.”

“AI is kind of what Calculus did for physics. AI will do for biology in the sense that it'll help us weave back together lots of very complex pieces that build these complex systems that then have certain properties.”

“Boy, are we far away from The true upper bounds of any of the spaces of intelligence. And there's still so much further that AI can go in, in research.”