The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7,044 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 96 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Electric planes will outnumber gas-powered planes in the air by 2030
“By 2030, you'll see more electric airplanes in the air than gas powered airplanes.”
Lore: Quidsi rejected a competing buyout offer $100M higher after Amazon threats
“Yeah, it's even, even worse that we got a higher offer that we didn't take.”
Amazon threatened to drop diaper prices to zero if Quidsi resisted sale
“They said, well, yeah, we're gonna take the price of diapers to zero, and we're gonna, you know, and they made some analogies to some other, used explicit language, and it was pretty scary stuff.”
Carlyle Group removed Gregg Renfrew as CEO five months after buyout
“They made the decision in October that I was not capable of running the company, and they decided to remove me as CEO.”
Quidsi rejected a $100M higher buyout offer due to Amazon retaliation threats
“Because Amazon very clearly stated that if we took that offer, they would do even more to harm the business.”
Amazon explicitly threatened to price diapers at zero to force Quidsi sale
“They said, well, yeah, we're gonna take the price of diapers to zero, and we're gonna, you know, and they made some analogies to some other, used explicit language, and it was pretty scary stuff. I'll just leave it at that.”
Cost Plus Drugs manufactures generic pills cheaper domestically than in Asia
“And so we can make generic pills here in the United States cheaper than what we can buy them for from India or China.”
Shane Legg estimates a 50% chance of AGI by 2028
“So I actually came up with an estimate then that it was about a 50% chance of what I call AGI now by about 20 28.”
Bill Simmons: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell lied about Ray Rice
“And they did. Though Rice's told them. No, he lied.”
Incoming Cisco CEO John Morgridge told Lerner she was 'everything wrong'
“Yeah, and he denies it, but I will swear on the lives of my cats, the first thing he said to me was, I hear you're everything that's wrong with Cisco.”
Angle: FTC staff post blocked deals on doors as badges of honor
“In fact, I had to testify, I was deposed as part of this process, and I was walking, you know, between sessions, walking the facility, and
On the doors of the agents at the FTC, the employees, like, badges of honor on the doors were deals blocked.”
Wingstop's private equity buyers diverted cash flow to avoid paying Swad's note
“Instead of using the money to make the payment to me for the company that I built, they took the money and they built corporate stores with it, which was adding to the intrinsic value of the company. They were bonusing themselves. If it ever looked like at the…”
Make Magazine's first issue perfectly described Square's card reader design
“If you want to know the real story, just get the first issue of Make Magazine. It's publicly available. It describes exactly what we were building, and I knew that when I went to Bob.”
Newmark denies Craigslist killed newspapers, blaming TV news, Google, and Facebook
“I, in the past, felt that Craigslist did have a substantial effect on newspaper survival, but until
No one had done any of the numbers.
I'd spoke to industry analysts like Ken doctor and Rasmus Nielsen, who said it was ridiculous to think Craigslist had that b…”
Ahmed: Amazon copied WHOOP with Halo, tweeting 'whoop, there it is'
“They knocked the product off. There's no question. And by the way, it was so egregious that one of the lead product manager from Amazon, when it came out, posted on Twitter, whoop, there it is announcing the new Amazon Halo.”
McKenzie: Musk offered to buy Substack and make Chris Best Twitter CEO
“And he responded by getting Chris on a call and saying to him, well, how about Twitter acquire Substack, and you, I'm looking for a CEO to run the company.”
Lion Capital ballooned headcount and destroyed profitability post-acquisition
“Within six months of selling the company to them, we went from 17 employees to 59 employees. The business didn't triple. They only grow the business about six to eight percent a year, if that. They destroyed profitability.”
Ainsworth: Competitors admitted targeting Marucci to slow its market share growth
“There's no question. We've had conversations with some of those other companies across, over the years, and they said, we could take some hits from some smaller companies, but what you guys did, y'all were taking so much market share, you know, we kind of had …”
Shufelt: Non-alcoholic beer will account for over 50% of beer consumption
“In my head, I think it's going to be over 50% of beer.”
Bosch: SmartSweets' first co-packer stole the recipe to launch a competitor
“That manufacturer took the recipe and ended up going on to launch a product themselves,”
Maldonado: Most retailers make more from slotting fees than product sales
“And these, you know, retailers, most of them, they make more, more money from slotting fees than they do from actually selling products.”
Wolfe Herd: Tech could prevent breakups within 10 years
“And my dream, Guy, is 10 years from now, We will be able to prevent breakups before they ever happen. We will be able to prevent bad relationships from ever having a potential of happening.”
NRA Does Not Publicly Oppose Smart Guns, Says Biofire CEO
“The NRA, as an example, does not oppose the development of smart guns, right? That's their public stance. You can go read on their website.”
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will become the world's biggest meat company
“We started saying to everybody, we're going to become the world's biggest meat company. This is what we're going to do. And if you're the world's biggest meat company, you're not selling the technology. You're selling meat.”
Tim League controversially offered a remote job to an accused employee
“I made the decision at the board meeting to offer him a copy editing position that he could do from home.”
Yassin: Advertising-based content creation is a flawed, fraudulent model
“Advertising-based content creation is a flawed model, and I would dare say it's a fraudulent model. This is the model that has been working, but it will not work in the future.”
Tom Rinks: Taco Bell's first three Chihuahua commercials copied his submitted storyboards
“They tested that ad in the northeast, which has happened to be where I was in Michigan, and I just lost it, you know, because it was the commercial that I'd written. You know, the first three commercials were our commercials, like we had storyboarded and share…”
Nike contracts penalized Allyson Felix 25 percent for missing medals post-pregnancy.
“The way that these contracts are set up. You get a bonus. If you win a medal, you get a reduction if you don't win a medal. So here was going to be Allison, you know, 10 months after giving birth and she would need to go to the world championships. She would n…”
Nike requested Allyson Felix's image for a World Cup ad during disputes.
“The Women's World Cup was coming up, and I remember, like, this very vividly. I was sitting in Cameron's nursery, and I got a call from Wes, and he has, he's like, don't shoot the messenger, but Nike wants to know if they can use your image in this campaign. I…”
Vogt: Teslas may adopt low-cost LiDAR while Cruise drops it
“I think in the future, you know, the cost of LiDAR is coming down to the point where they basically cost the same as a camera, and so I wouldn't be surprised if in the future you see Teslas with very low-cost LiDARs, and you might see cruise vehicles with very…”
Vogt: Software and AI are no longer Cruise's biggest bottleneck
“And so the technical problems, the software and AI problems are no longer the biggest bottleneck. Now we're turning our attention back to manufacturing and scaling and building out charging and cleaning and maintenance infrastructure in cities.”
Altman: AI is automating creative jobs before blue-collar labor
“You know, the strong consensus Five, 10 years ago, was that first of all the AI was going to come for the blue-collar jobs. Second of all would be the less sophisticated white-collar jobs. Third of all would be the very high cognitive load white-collar jobs li…”
Zimmer: Men's Wearhouse stole Macy's tuxedo rental deal during legal review
“My team and I were in New York in Terry Lundgren's office, the CEO of Macy's, making a deal to be the... Tuxedo. Tuxedo rental, and we had the deal. It went to legal review, and while it was in legal review, Men's Warehouse stole it.”
Baszucki: Exposure to bad content on Roblox is extremely infrequent
“And right now where we're at is it's very, very, very infrequent that anyone on our platform runs into intentionally bad content.”
Cuban: Drug manufacturers fear insurance company retaliation for supplying Cost Plus
“Part of the challenge is getting manufacturers to sell to us because they're afraid of the response they'll get from the insurance companies.”
Andy Dunn was arrested for assault during a 2016 manic episode
“And I was arrested for felony and misdemeanor assault of my now wife and mother-in-law who were Trying to keep me from running into the street naked out of my apartment on ninth street.”
Mullenweg: Wix violated copyright by making derived WordPress code proprietary
“What we often go to bat for and fight for, including with this company called Wix, is what they did was they took our code, and then the code they derived from it, so the modifications they met, were, they said were proprietary and secret to Wix. And so what w…”
Def Jam undershipped Logic's debut album and bought zero shelf space
“And to say what Chris won't, they undershipped us. They didn't believe in us so much that they undershipped my album. And you had all these other huge artists with, you know, 400,000 plus CDs in stores, and I had fans going to Best Buys, having to have the wor…”
Krim: Casper financed the Sleepopolis acquisition but had no editorial control
“They wanted to buy this site, and we talked to them about financing that acquisition so that they could operate it, and they had complete, independent editorial control, and they ran their business. We were just a financing partner for them.”
Troy Carter: White executives literally hold 'head of Black music' titles
“You actually, believe it or not, have white people that are the heads of black music with a title at some of these companies.”
Howroyd: Teacher Stood on Desk Claiming Black People Were Suited for Slavery
“And we had a teacher who stood up on the desk that day, the first day I went into his history class, and explained so eloquently, if you can even see the paradox of that, how blacks are so suited to slavery.”
Steve Jobs told Drew Houston Dropbox was a feature, not a product
“He was like, alright, well, in so many ways, he's like, well, you guys are a feature, not a product. You know, we're gonna have to build our competitor, and I guess we'll have to get to work on, you know, in so many words, killing you guys.”
Jeremy Stoppelman emphatically denies that Yelp allows pay-to-play review manipulation
“The answer is, of course, absolutely not. That's never been the case. And in fact, you can prove it to yourself. Look at any one of our advertisers and see if you find negative reviews. Chances are you will, because everyone gets the occasional negative review…”
Zimmer: App-based drivers support California's Prop 22 by four to one
“Four to one driver support Prop. 22 versus the alternative.”
Radenbaugh: E-Bike Supply Chains Will Never Exist in the United States
“The supply chains for electric bikes, they don't exist in America. They're not going to exist.”
Troy Carter: America will never achieve true racial reconciliation
“So we're still reminded of our place in, in, in this country, so you'll never get to reconciliation. We all know the truth, but we'll never get to reconciliation.”
White executives hold 'Head of Black Music' titles at some labels
“You actually, believe it or not, have white people that are the heads of black music with a title at some of these companies. You know, it's, and literally you have qualified black executives in the company, but actual white people with a title, the head of bl…”