The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 273 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Bill Simmons: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell lied about Ray Rice
“And they did. Though Rice's told them. No, he lied.”
Bill Simmons Feb 13, 2023 ▶ 53:14 The Ringer: Bill Simmons
Assertion Contradicted
Make Magazine's first issue perfectly described Square's card reader design
“If you want to know the real story, just get the first issue of Make Magazine. It's publicly available. It describes exactly what we were building, and I knew that when I went to Bob.”
Jim McKelvey Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 57:47 Square: Jim McKelvey. He Lost a $2,000 Sale, Then Built a $10 Billion Company
Assertion Contradicted
Maldonado: Most retailers make more from slotting fees than product sales
“And these, you know, retailers, most of them, they make more, more money from slotting fees than they do from actually selling products.”
Pete Maldonado May 2, 2024 ▶ 3:46 Advice Line with Pete Maldonado of Chomps
Assertion Contradicted
Tom Rinks: Taco Bell's first three Chihuahua commercials copied his submitted storyboards
“They tested that ad in the northeast, which has happened to be where I was in Michigan, and I just lost it, you know, because it was the commercial that I'd written. You know, the first three commercials were our commercials, like we had storyboarded and share…”
Tom Rinks Mar 27, 2023 ▶ 26:27 Sun Bum: Tom Rinks
Assertion Contradicted
Troy Carter: White executives literally hold 'head of Black music' titles
“You actually, believe it or not, have white people that are the heads of black music with a title at some of these companies.”
Troy Carter Feb 25, 2021 ▶ 16:58 How I Built Resilience: Troy Carter of Q&A (June, 2020)
Assertion Contradicted
Kilgore: Mainstream beauty products carry at least a 1,200% retail markup
“And in all of these different layers of distribution, you would end up with a markup of 1200% At minimum on that product. So something that is manufactured for five dollars would retail for 60 at minimum because the retailer themselves are taking at least half…”
Marcia Kilgore Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 2:24 Advice Line with Marcia Kilgore of Beauty Pie
Assertion Contradicted
Researchers Took Two Years to Discover GPT-3.5 Could Synthesize Dangerous Chemicals
“It took two years, for example, for researchers to figure out that GPT-III.V, the predecessor to GPT-IV, had research-grade chemistry knowledge, meaning you could ask it questions about, you know, how to synthesize dangerous chemicals, and it would tell you ho…”
Tristan Harris Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 26:50 The peril (and promise) of AI with Tristan Harris: Part 1
Assertion Contradicted
Masterson: Drunk Elephant did zero paid advertising from launch until 2023
“So I decided not to advertise early on. Yep. Never advertised till last year, actually.”
Tiffany Masterson Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 58:35 Drunk Elephant: Tiffany Masterson
Assertion Contradicted
Gilboa: Optometry is the only medical field where doctors sell prescribed products
“Optometry is interesting. It's the only part of human medicine where A doctor can prescribe something to their patient and then sell them that product and make margin on it.”
Dave Gilboa Dec 14, 2023 ▶ 19:58 Framing the future of eyecare with Neil Blumenthal and Dave Gilboa of Warby Parker
Assertion Contradicted
Wood: Steve Jobs rejected Netflix app on Apple TV over hardware rivalry
“And I think Reed sent an email to Steve Jobs saying, are you guys interested in this? And Steve Jobs replied, no, we're not interested because we hear you're building Hardware that competes with Apple TV. And so why would we ever do business with you? You know…”
Anthony Wood Nov 21, 2022 ▶ 42:22 Roku: Anthony Wood
Assertion Contradicted
Kaufer: Fake review farms target Google but explicitly exclude TripAdvisor
“We see these review places offering to write fake reviews on Google and some other sites. And then they say, except TripAdvisor. Cause like, yeah, if like, if they try, we catch them, we shut them down.”
Steve Kaufer Oct 31, 2022 ▶ 1:05:41 Tripadvisor: Steve Kaufer
Assertion Contradicted
Reffkin: Average agent grows business 19% in first year at Compass
“The average agent that comes to Compass has grown their business 19% in their first year.”
Robert Reffkin Jul 26, 2021 ▶ 1:03:48 Robert Reffkin: Compass
Assertion Contradicted
Ben Conniff: Right whale entanglements are not happening in Maine waters
“All the data and evidence shows that any issues with right whales are not, really not happening in Maine waters based on their migratory patterns and where their food is”
Ben Conniff Sep 3, 2020 ▶ 17:04 How I Built Resilience: Luke Holden and Ben Conniff of Luke's Lobster
Assertion Contradicted
Skin bleaching products are the largest skincare category in Africa
“The biggest skincare product in Africa is skin bleaching products.”
Sharon Chuter Jul 9, 2020 ▶ 6:55 How I Built Resilience: Live with Sharon Chuter
Assertion Contradicted
Black women receive just 0.0006% of venture funding dollars in the US
“When you go and set up a business, 0.0006% of funding dollars goes to black women.”
Sharon Chuter Jul 9, 2020 ▶ 15:41 How I Built Resilience: Live with Sharon Chuter
Assertion Contradicted
Brown: Livestock emissions exceed all global transportation emissions combined
“I became aware of the greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock industry, which are huge. They're greater than all forms of power transportation combined.”
Pat Brown May 11, 2020 ▶ 19:35 Impossible Foods: Pat Brown
Assertion Contradicted
Ethan Brown claims livestock causes 51% of global greenhouse gas emissions
“Look at climate change. You know, it's about 51% of greenhouse gas emissions from lifestyle.”
Ethan Brown Feb 16, 2017 ▶ 6:08 Live Episode! Beyond Meat: Ethan Brown
Assertion Contradicted
Zimmer: 3 percent of the US workforce had earned income on Lyft
“Yeah, there were, I think it was when I was leaving, like, three percent of the U.S. Workforce had, had earned on Lyft”
John Zimmer Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 46:49 Advice Line with John Zimmer of Lyft
Assertion Contradicted
Amy Errett: Madison Reed removed eight ingredients no competitor has eliminated
“We talk about a better for you formula, and we are very factual about these eight things that we factually have taken out. That nobody else has taken out.”
Amy Errett Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:03:29 Madison Reed: Amy Errett
Assertion Contradicted
Von Ahn: Duolingo captures 90% of mobile language app users
“If you take all people who are learning languages on mobile apps, 90% of them are using Duolingo.”
Luis von Ahn May 1, 2025 ▶ 4:42 Advice Line with Luis von Ahn of Duolingo
Assertion Contradicted
On was likely the first running shoe to embed a rigid plate
“We were probably the first brand using plate, a plate in the shoe, we call it speed board.”
Olivier Bernhard Jul 22, 2024 ▶ 42:59 On athletic shoes: Olivier Bernhard and Caspar Coppetti
Assertion Contradicted
Chandra: Kaboodle coined the term 'social shopping' in 2006
“And so we ended up focusing a lot of our energy on fashion and women and coined the term in 2006 social shopping.”
Manish Chandra Feb 26, 2024 ▶ 17:42 Poshmark: Manish Chandra
Assertion Contradicted
Jim Koch: Truly was the first hard seltzer in the United States
“Truly was the first hard seltzer here.”
Jim Koch Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 19:21 Brewing creativity with Jim Koch of Boston Beer Company
Assertion Contradicted
Von Ahn: Knowing English doubles income potential in most countries
“And it turns out that in most countries in the world, if you know English, you can double your income potential.”
Luis von Ahn Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 39:48 reCAPTCHA and Duolingo: Luis von Ahn (2020)
Assertion Contradicted
Von Ahn: Duolingo has 50x users and 5x revenue of Rosetta Stone
“By now, I would say we probably have 50 times more uses than they do. Our revenue is probably five X their revenue.”
Luis von Ahn Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 1:04:00 reCAPTCHA and Duolingo: Luis von Ahn (2020)
Assertion Contradicted
Biofire Pioneered the First Handgun Electronic Fire Control System
“Biofire, we really went back to the drawing board and pioneered the world's first ever electronic fire control system in a handgun. The trigger mechanically is not connected to the firing pin in any way.”
Kai Kloepfer Oct 5, 2023 ▶ 31:19 A biometric smart gun with Kai Kloepfer of Biofire
Assertion Contradicted
Founders Fund Led the First-Ever VC Investment in a Firearms Company
“Our series a, which we announced last year, that was the first ever venture led investment into a firearms company from founders fund.”
Kai Kloepfer Oct 5, 2023 ▶ 33:22 A biometric smart gun with Kai Kloepfer of Biofire
Assertion Contradicted
Harvard study shows BCI-timed breaks boost productivity by 4 hours
“Yeah, so we did a large study with a professor from Harvard, who's now a professor at Worcester Political, Technical Institute, and he had created this incredible method for identifying the individual's focus, and so what we were able to do, and we did close t…”
Ramses Alcaide Aug 31, 2023 ▶ 17:42 When your headphones listen to you with Ramses Alcaide of Neurable
Assertion Contradicted
Geothermal cuts home heating operating costs to one-fifth of fossil fuels
“If you look at, for example, in the Midwest, comparing using a fuel to using geothermal, your operating costs, so how much you have to actually spend to heat your home, it's maybe a fifth with geothermal. It's similar in the Northeast, and emissions-wise is si…”
Kathy Hannun Jun 8, 2023 ▶ 2:50 Tapping the heat beneath your feet with Kathy Hannun of Dandelion Energy
Assertion Contradicted
Tarte Cosmetics has never spent a single dollar on traditional advertising
“Yeah, you know, we've never spent one dollar in advertising in Tarte ever.”
Maureen Kelly Jan 23, 2023 ▶ 58:24 Tarte Cosmetics: Maureen Kelly
Assertion Contradicted
Acevedo: 60% of educated Latinos remain underbanked in the US
“So even when Latinos are in the workforce, even when they have college degrees, They're still 60% not fully banked or not fully utilizing the financial services of this country”
Beatriz Acevedo Dec 15, 2022 ▶ 31:03 HIBT Lab! mitú and SUMA Wealth: Beatriz Acevedo
Assertion Contradicted
The New York Times acquired Wirecutter for more than the reported $30M
“Is that number is actually wrong. It was a leak that was incorrect, but the times published it. It was more, but it wasn't an extraordinary amount.”
Brian Lam Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 1:02:07 Wirecutter: Brian Lam
Assertion Contradicted
Hari: Recovering Focus After an Interruption Takes 23 Minutes
“Think about Professor Michael Posner at the University of Oregon. Discovered if you're interrupted, it takes you on average, 23 minutes to get back to the level of focus you had before you were interrupted.”
Johann Hari May 19, 2022 ▶ 20:51 HIBT Lab! Stolen Focus: Johann Hari
Assertion Contradicted
LaFleur: Professional women's apparel is a $100B–$120B market
“There are thirty million women, age 25 to 45, who work in some sort of corporate environment, and these women spend, on average, for women making 75 K and up, 4000 dollars a year on clothes to wear to work, and so that's roughly a hundred to a hundred twenty b…”
Sarah LaFleur Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 48:13 M.M.LaFleur: Sarah LaFleur (2020)
Assertion Contradicted
Stanford refused to license federally funded router technology, Lerner says
“Stanford said, no, you cannot license this technology. They would not entertain any licensing. We had done our part, and we had taken the government's money. This is all public domain. We'd invented all of these wonderful things, but the Office of Technology L…”
Sandy Lerner May 10, 2021 ▶ 18:30 Cisco Systems & Urban Decay: Sandy Lerner (2018)
Assertion Contradicted
Smith: Ingredients labeled as natural vanilla extract are typically chemical extractives
“So, like, when you see, like, natural vanilla extract, the one thing you can be sure of is that is not vanilla. It is typically chemical extractives”
Katlin Smith Feb 15, 2021 ▶ 55:26 Simple Mills: Katlin Smith
Assertion Contradicted
Von Ahn: Knowing English doubles income potential in most countries
“And it turns out that in most countries in the world, if you know English, you can double your income potential.”
Luis von Ahn May 25, 2020 ▶ 35:57 reCAPTCHA and Duolingo: Luis von Ahn
Assertion Contradicted
Creelman asserts there is no real standard for natural flavor additives
“There really is no standard for a natural flavor. There may very well be all of the things you described, but there's no assurance of that.”
Bill Creelman Jan 13, 2020 ▶ 52:44 Spindrift: Bill Creelman
Assertion Contradicted
Flanker brand K&G enabled Men's Wearhouse to raise gross margins 10%
“K&G provides a unique opportunity for an offensive and defensive strategy, and they didn't quite understand what that meant, and so what it means is men's warehouse stores were able to raise the gross profit percentage of By a full 10%, which is a thousand bas…”
George Zimmer Apr 15, 2019 ▶ 40:46 Men's Wearhouse: George Zimmer
Assertion Contradicted
Dollar Shave Club captured 20% to 25% of the non-disposable razor market
“I think that, you know, as of now, there's about 20 to 25% of the men's non-disposable razor market that we have.”
Michael Dubin Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 42:17 Live Episode! Dollar Shave Club: Michael Dubin
Assertion Contradicted
Tom's of Maine pushed the personal care industry to end animal testing
“All the other companies stopped testing on animals, so we had a big influence.”
Tom Chappell Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 14:24 Tom's Of Maine: Tom Chappell
Assertion Contradicted
Chappell: The garment and textile industry is Earth's second-largest polluter
“The textile and the garment industry, because it is the second largest polluter on this earth.”
Tom Chappell Dec 11, 2017 ▶ 27:13 Tom's Of Maine: Tom Chappell
Assertion Contradicted
Schultz: Store retraining shutdown cost Starbucks about $24 million
“I think we estimated about twenty-four million dollars that day, in terms of lost sales and labor.”
Howard Schultz Sep 28, 2017 ▶ 40:41 Live Episode! Starbucks: Howard Schultz
Assertion Contradicted
Systrom: Instagram grew because prior photo apps were closed, friends-only networks
“If you look at every photo service before then, it was basically a closed-only, friends-only network, and we were the first ones to really open that up.”
Kevin Systrom Sep 19, 2016 ▶ 18:51 Instagram: Kevin Systrom & Mike Krieger
Assertion Contradicted
Toast's share of US restaurant sales volume exceeds its location share
“Even though we have 20 plus percent of the restaurants, we actually have more of the sales volume, because the average restaurant that's on toast has more sales than the average restaurant in America”
Aman Narang Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 44:32 Toast: Aman Narang. How a Long Wait for the Dinner Check Launched a $2 Billion Business.
Assertion Contradicted
Scrub Daddy generated $1M in sales the night Shark Tank aired
“We did a million dollars the night the show aired.”
Aaron Krause Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 1:12:39 Scrub Daddy: Aaron Krause. How a Failed Experiment Became a Billion-Dollar Sponge
Assertion Contradicted
Osher: Overhead baby toy arches didn't exist before his Rainbow Toy Bar
“Every, every baby in the world uses some form of this now, but back then it did not exist.”
John Osher Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 18:08 Spinbrush: John Osher. The Electric Toothbrush That Sold for $475M
Assertion Contradicted
Chewy Sells More Pet Supplies in the United States Than Amazon
“I think it's the biggest distributor of pet supplies. I think it's bigger than Amazon when it comes to pet supplies in the U.S.”
Guy Raz Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 39:18 Advice Line with Jon Stein of Betterment
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