The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 282 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 52 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Scholl: Boom will produce first Overture by 2026, test in 2027
“We're breaking ground on the plant to build it, and we will be in production by the end of 24. We'll have the first airplane in 26, and we'll start flight testing it in 27.”
Scholl: Boom aims for Overture passenger certification by end of 2029
“And our goal is to spend two years in that flight test campaign and then be certified to carry passengers by the end of 2029.”
Elkabetz: Ultra-precise global weather forecasting will arrive within 3-4 years
“I believe that with the kind of constellation that we're putting in, in space and the kind of products we're working on, This capability will be available globally, not even in a decade, in let's say three to four years max.”
Vogt: Autonomous vehicles can become 10x to 100x better than human drivers
“With these systems, they, you know, they're already good. The ones we have today are safe, but there's no reason to me why we can't see them become 10 times better or a hundred times better than human drivers.”
Vogt: Autonomous vehicles will not become a commodity or winner-take-all
“Our view is that you know, the handful of companies that you know, do this first and start these cycles of iteration and learning, Are probably going to end up with the best products. And it's likely that it becomes harder and harder to catch up as these other…”
Vogt: Within 50 years, human driving will be seen as reckless
“The first is, is that I have very little doubt that self-driving cars will be Many, many, many, many times safer than human drivers to the point where it starts to look a little reckless to let humans drive cars in places where there might be pedestrians and c…”
Universal Hydrogen expects to retrofit half the target fleet by early 2030s
“We would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 20 thirties.”
Eremenko: Boeing and Airbus must choose hydrogen over hydrocarbons by late 2020s
“In the late 20 twenties, I think it will be absolutely impossible for either of those two companies to say, we're going to launch a brand new airplane that will burn hydrocarbons, right?”
Eremenko: Commercial hydrogen flights will operate globally before 2032
“Long before a decade from now, guy, you will be able to fly on hydrogen with a major regional airline, both in the U S or in Europe or in other parts of the world. For a ticket price that will be equivalent or lower, with the comfort knowing that the airplane …”
Altman: AGI will eventually be capable of finding a cure for cancer
“Eventually, now this will require more compute, but if we society at allocate to compute to that, you can say, like, could you go off and find a cure for cancer? And it can spend a lot of its compute cycles doing amazing scientific progress like that.”
Altman: Everyone will eventually have an AGI companion assisting them all day
“But I imagine that we get to a world where each of us has sort of like a, what feels like an AGI companion that we are talking to all day that is helping us be the best version of ourselves, learn, be efficient, be happier, and we'll all experience that way.”
Altman: Models orders of magnitude above GPT-3 could enable massive disinformation
“Like, at some point there will come a time, one, two, three orders magnitude, who knows what, how much more powerful than GPT-III, where I think a language model Can really have a huge disinformation effect on the world.”
Altman: Powerful digital intelligence will exist within 10 years
“Sometimes these things take longer than you think, but let's say, like, in 10 years, I think there will be powerful digital intelligence in the world.”
Altman: Human creativity and desire for status will not disappear with AI
“I don't know what the jobs of the future will look like, but I am confident that human creativity Desire for status. Desire to, like, do new things and to, like, accomplish. That's not gonna go anywhere.”
Lore: AI-driven text commerce will act like a best friend recommending products
“Using artificial intelligence and texting, I think people would be able to, in the future, just text what they want, and the system would know you as well as your best friend or family member, and be able to recommend precisely what you want, and either using …”
Friesen: Hydropanels can eventually provide the lowest-cost potable water on Earth
“There's no Physical reason, this is a big statement, why these source hydropanels can't eventually be the lowest cost delivered potable water on the planet. Lower cost than what you flush toilets with at home, what you consider sort of free water, which of cou…”
Scaringe: Gas cars will be rare antiques within 25 years
“So call it the next 15 to 20 years, we'll see the fleet of vehicles in the world
Essentially shift almost entirely towards electric, but you know, within, I'd say, 25 years, it would be fairly rare to see a gasoline powered car on the road.
It would be like se…”
Araque: Quaise Can Reach 20-Kilometer Depths to Unlock Global Geothermal
“So we think we can get to 20 kilometers. This is twice as deep as we've ever drilled as humans, and precisely what's needed to make geothermal totally global and ubiquitous.”
Araque: Geothermal could supply 20% of global energy by 2050
“So let's say by 20 50 we have on the order of one to five terawatts, that's probably a healthy 20% of global energy needs, but certainly after that, you know, you start talking about the majority of energy coming from here.”
Baird: Carbon capture market will be larger than gold and oil
“Yeah, it's going to be like Bigger than gold and oil. That's correct.”
E-commerce platforms will vertically integrate proprietary brands just like Netflix
“The future of e-commerce was gonna look a little bit like the history of Netflix. That a platform that was streaming other people's content and distributing other people's content would vertically integrate and start to develop their own proprietary content.”
Armstrong: Crypto could become 20% of global GDP within two decades
“Crypto as a whole industry, I think could become 10, 20% of global GDP, like in maybe 10 or 20 years, something like that.”
Vaynerchuk: 99% of current NFT projects will fail and collapse in price
“Yeah, I mean, I think 99% of the projects that are being launched right now are gold rushes, and they're gonna be projects that fail, and people are gonna buy tokens from celebrities, leagues, different things, and the price is gonna go down.”
Baird predicts women's soccer will reach media parity within 10 years
“I do, and I know that's kind of a bold, brave statement to say when we're only four percent of the coverage today, and we're certainly not anywhere near the massive audience or revenues that some of our men's leagues have, but I think we and other women's spor…”
Hsieh: Zappos could expand into airlines and hotels within 10–20 years
“We're hoping, 1020 years from now, people won't even realize we started selling shoes online, and I can imagine one day there could be a Zappos Airlines or Zappos Hotel that, Is really just about the very best customer service and customer experience.”
Chesky: Remote work will shift travel to long stays in smaller communities
“I mean, maybe the most fundamental change that I see in our world that's going to happen, if you're so fortunate enough, typically upper middle class person or upper class, not everyone can do this, but for those who can, They're realizing, maybe I'll go a mon…”
Chesky: Travelers will shift from crowded cities to outdoor destinations
“People are gonna, instead of traveling to the same 20 cities, going to the same hotel districts that are really crowded, and then standing in line, To get their selfie photo, instead of the same landmarks, to put it on Instagram, say, look, I got that too. The…”
Hyman: Remote work may be the best thing for women's empowerment
“This actually may be the best thing to ever happen to women's empowerment. You know, the idea of more remote work and to trust that we can do it in a more livable, thoughtful way. This actually may be the thing that levels the playing field.”
Humm: The US can end hunger if restaurants provide 200 subsidized meals
“So if we cook more family meals, And we give, you know, every restaurant gives 200 family meals a day to people in need, and somehow we figure out through the government, through tax, ah, cuts, through fundraising, we figure out that, that we can pay for these…”
Foley: Peloton will be one of the special companies of our generation
“I think if we do it well, this will be one of the special companies of our generation.”
Zimmer: People will not drive cars in major cities in 20 years
“In major urban environments, I do not think so. I think maybe we'll go to amusement parks to do that.”
Hyman aimed to build Rent the Runway into a $100 billion company
“Yeah, so I'm here to build a hundred billion dollar company, and To change the way we get dressed every single day all over the world, and to democratize what I think is one of the most elite industries on earth, and one of the most wasteful industries on eart…”
Zimmer predicted in 2017 that AVs would soon handle half of rides
“What's real is that over the next couple years, it'll be able to do A few percent of our trips, 10% of our trips, 50% of our trips.”
Tony Hsieh Envisions Future Zappos Airlines and Hotels Within 20 Years
“We're hoping, 1020 years from now, people won't even realize we started selling shoes online. And I can imagine one day there could be a Zappos Airlines or Zappos Hotel that Is really just about the very best customer service and customer experience.”
Calvin: Hacky Sacks Are Making a Massive Comeback
“One that's probably people already know just burst like maybe two months ago is hacky sacks are coming back in a huge way. And razor already has hacky sacks in the, you know, in the store start shipping this week.”
Lopez: AI is not a threat to podcast creators
“I don't see AI as a threat to the podcast creating community. I think AI will be used as a tool to help everybody Produce better output to save time and to improve their marketing materials.”
Hirschfeld: AI-generated content will increase the demand for human creativity
“I think that having more AI generated content in, on the internet and in the world is also going to create more of a demand for human created content and for really, it's just going to raise the bar for Quality.”
Humm argues fine dining will always exist as a cultural institution
“Fine dining will always be, will always exist. Because it's the highest form of cooking. It's like saying there won't be any ballet anymore, or any classical music, or, I mean, this is part of the culture.”
Lindsay Gallis: Textbook companies face imminent disruption from digital alternatives
“So the textbooks really, honestly, I feel like it's one of the last industries that haven't been substantially disrupted by digitalization. They're not being used anymore by students. You know, students bring home a textbook, maybe, but for the most part, if t…”
Larian: Consumers, not toy companies, will pay the cost of import tariffs
“And these tariffs are not going to be paid by the toy companies or any company. They're not going to be paid by retailers. They're going to be paid by the consumers.”
McLeod: AI will replace swiping with natural language preference matching
“I'm actually quite excited about the possibilities that we're now seeing because of AI, which I think will even further our ability to help people spend less time on our app and more time out on great dates. It will allow people Instead of communicating to us …”
Guy Raz predicts AI podcasts will be profitable within five years
“In, in, within five years, AI generated podcasts will be, they already are pretty good. They will be so good that people will make money out for them, and my value will probably be going, doing things live.”
Field: Good design will become an even bigger software differentiator
“I think what becomes differentiator is design. It's craft. It's how it works. It's brand. And as we look at the future, that's what I believe will still be the differentiator for software. It's going to be that craft. And I think that the value of design of go…”
Spiegel: Future cameras will overlay computing onto our environment and daily lives
“And I think in the future, and even today with, you know, the fifth generation of spectacles, cameras are really used to overlay computing on our environment and to better integrate computing with our day-to-day lives.”
Cuthbert Predicts Viator Will Surpass $4B in Gross Revenue in 2024
“They'll do, I think, over four billion dollars in gross revenue in 2024.”
Guy Raz: Surfing helmet adoption will mirror skiing within 10 to 20 years
“Yeah, and I've seen it more and more in California. I see more and more people wearing helmets, and I think in 1020 years, it's just, we're gonna look back and be like, people didn't wear helmets surfing? That was, it's like skiing.”