The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 72 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lipman: Most lab-grown meat startups will fail to reach commercial scale
“I'm anticipating that the vast majority will not be able to reach commercial scale and not be able to reach the market, so we'll either see a bunch of consolidation or a bunch of dead companies in the wake of whatever reckoning may be coming.”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Nvidia balance sheet support will unlock neocloud growth in 2H 2026
“I expect, you know, second half of 20 seconds, you'll see NeoCloud sort of growth be unlocked much more through the actions of NVIDIA as they provide their volunteer support.”
Kann: 300 MW data centers have lower cost per FLOP than edge
“My guess is, you know, your 300 megawatt data center on a fully loaded levelized cost of flop is just gonna be cheaper.”
Sridhar: Data centers will shift to 800-volt DC architecture
“The second pain point that they are working on as we speak is shifting the mindset to an 800 volt DC bus going into Iraq. Let me explain this to you. When you are a large power plant that produces 50 megawatts, 500 megawatts worth of power, because so much pow…”
Kann: Data centers will partner with DER aggregators for grid capacity
“We're just starting to see this wave of announcements that are inexorably coming where there are going to be partnerships between hyperscalers or data center operators and the Third parties who do aggregations of DERs to deliver capacity to get data centers on…”
Friedmann: Congress is highly likely to preserve 45Q and 45V tax credits
“With respect to Forty-five-Q and other tax credits in the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act I give high odds That they will sustain, 45 Q, 45 V related projects.”
Kimber: AI inference will ultimately draw far more power than training
“I think now what we're seeing is that inference in the aggregate is actually probably a much larger draw than the training in the long run.”
Grunwald: Feeding 2050 Population Needs Two Indias' Worth of New Land
“If, even if we continue to increase farm yields at the same rate they've increased throughout the Green Revolution we're gonna need another two India's worth of land, which essentially means, you know, gonna bye-bye Amazon and Congo rainforests, you know, very…”
Frith: Lowest battery spot prices will rise while average prices continue falling
“I think, you know, unfortunately, we're probably going to see prices increasing, you know, moderately in, in the next kind of year or so, I would say, or kind of, let's say two years out, we'll probably see higher prices than we're at today. But I don't think,…”
Johnson: Geologic hydrogen extraction costs should match natural gas extraction
“If you can find hydrogen under the ground, the reality is you should be able to produce it from a volumetric standpoint at a similar cost that we produce natural gas out of the ground.”
Berdichevsky: Some US battery factory projects will get mothballed
“So I do think some of these projects are still, are not going to go forward at certain stages. You know, and that's kind of classic. A lot of times, you know, maybe half the announced projects end up getting built. The pipeline is way bigger than the demand to…”
Kann predicts US data center capacity will double by 2030.
“I'm on the oversight here. I'm betting that there will be more than 20 gigawatts of new data center capacity in the United States by then.”
Loo: Projections show ammonia will eventually be cheaper than e-methanol
“In the long term, if you look at the projections and the numbers, I think if costs were the driver, then the cost of ammonia is going to be cheaper than the cost of e-methanol.”
Mills: DOE will compromise on proposed transformer efficiency standard
“They asked for public, the Department of Energy asked for public comment, and I think there was enough out there and enough concern expressed that I suspect a compromise position is going to come out. I don't think what they had originally released will actual…”
Vijendran: Central space solar beam will likely reach 200 watts per square meter
“Part of the beam, especially the central part of the beam, will likely be exceeding safety limits up to perhaps a couple of hundred watts per square meter.”
Friedmann: Ammonia power generation will be limited to select Asian economies
“I do think it's going to be unusual to It's going to be big in those economies, but not the rest of the world. India is not going to do this. The US is not going to do this. South Africa is not going to do this. They have other options. And so ammonia is a pow…”
Waste-oil aviation fuels cannot scale to meet double-digit jet fuel demand
“Today's generation is based on waste oils, fats, and greases. As you mentioned, Shale, they compete with food crops. They don't have great greenhouse gas reduction. Oh, and by the way, they don't scale. We're just, there's no way we're going to get to, you kno…”
Chase: Global Polysilicon Shortage Will End in Early 2023
“We think that this, the polysilicon shortage, we strongly think will end maybe in the next three months, although I've been saying that for a while.”
Jenny Chase: Solar will be built for green hydrogen production by 2030
“And that's even before you start thinking about, are we going to build solar to make hydrogen? And I suspect that by 2030 we are, just because we've got no idea how else to manage the problems of intermittency and how to decarbonize steel and fertilizer.”
Shah: Non-lithium battery chemistries will reach commercial scale within five years
“I think we're actually five years away from all of those technologies being available at scale to the marketplace.”
House: Nickel prices will drop below $30 per kilogram by April 2024
“These prices will not, I would bet against nickels being at 30 dollars a kilogram two years from now, because two years ago it was less than 20, and there were plenty of good opportunities, good projects out there, new projects that would work at 20.”
Bataille: Over 90% of captured CO2 must be permanently stored, not utilized
“The numbers I typically see is we will utilize less than 10% of it. Most of it has to go into deep storage, be it depleted oil and gas reservoirs with tight overseal, or into deep saline aquifers. Like, the vast majority has to go into permanent storage withou…”
Hsu predicts someone will achieve fusion scientific breakeven during the 2020s
“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”
Rutherford: Electric aviation is limited to flights of 300 kilometers or less
“But by our analysis, you know, it's really a market for commuter flights, and for flights of, you know, 300 kilometers or less for the foreseeable future, just because of the underlying mass penalties of the technology.”
Sharp: AI inference, not training, will drive future data center growth
“I would say that there's been a lot of growth in that, but we see that kind of leveling out where we really see the consumption of AI or inference that's driving that regional specific growth going forward. And I think that's where it's more embedded. And a lo…”
Boomhauer: Major property insurers are not expected to fail near term
“We're not at the point yet where You know, we expect major failures of property insurers.”
Loo: Maritime shipping will not converge on a single replacement fuel
“I think, you know, the future of maritime, it's not going to be single fuel. So we're not going to, for example, move into one single fuel. I think, you know, as a contrast to aviation, where I think there's a convergence that we need sustainable aviation fuel…”
Lubbershane: Hyperscalers will pay a premium for early-stage clean energy technologies
“I think we're gonna see that particularly when it comes to customers who are willing to pay a premium for You know, perhaps newer technology that is not yet come very far down the cost curve. And, you know, I, again, I think what we're gonna see it from compan…”
Woolley: EV capacity will add a nuclear plant's worth of power every two years
“We'll probably hit that capacity again in the next two years. So we could be basically adding capacity at the rate of a new nuclear power station on the grid every couple of years, and of course that growth is accelerating vastly.”
Houser: $39B is the floor for clean tech manufacturing investment over next 12 months
“Thirty-nine billion dollars last year is definitely the floor on what we're gonna see over the next 12 months.”
Yeagerson: Utility rates will soon tie directly to managed charging participation
“My guess is that what we're going to see before too long is utility programs or state subsidy programs where where you're charging capacity or you, your utility rates are going to be charged relative to your participation in these types of programs.”
Corbeau: Pipelines will definitely be Europe's cheapest hydrogen transport option
“Transporting hydrogen by pipeline, which can also be an option between, you know, different continents and will be definitely an option and the cheapest option for Europe.”
Larson: EPA power plant rule faces immediate lawsuits and Supreme Court challenge
“And then as soon as that's in the federal register, then the lawsuits are going to start Flying. And they will presume they all, almost all will go to the D.C. Circuit, which will then eventually, you know, one, everybody expects something, some challenge on t…”
Corbeau predicts global LNG markets will remain tight until 2025
“So, to your question, the markets are very likely to be tight up until twenty-twenty-five, because we know that in twenty-twenty-five, a certain number of new LNG plans are going to start. Golden Pass, although they have said 24 potentially, but I tend to be c…”
Friedmann: Global ammonia trade will rely on ships, not pipelines
“There are not going to be huge amounts of ammonia pipelines going around the world. Like, we're not going to see that. The way that we use ammonia pipelines in the U.S. Today is sort of very unusual and bespoke for our purpose, but that's not the way that we'r…”
Lubershain: Global AC demand will add another US power sector by 2050
“Depending on what forecast you look at in a sort of business as usual technology scenario, that means we're on track to add, roughly speaking, another whole U.S. Electricity sector worth of electricity demand globally for this new air conditioning demand by ar…”
Jaffe: US Energy Storage Capacity Will Double in 2023 Alone
“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity
Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”
Mukhopadhyay: Decarbonizing 2050 aviation requires today's entire global renewable energy output
“In 2050, the amount of electricity that would be required to decarbonize aviation is the entire renewable energy production today. So all of the energy, renewable energy that is produced today could be used up in aviation alone.”
Hawkins: Most Data Centers Are Moving to Closed-Loop Cooling
“Frankly, most of the industry is going that way.”
Lubershane: Islandable microgrids will deploy at megawatt EV charging depots
“The same expertise in in islandable large-scale power systems that are grid-connected but can take themselves offline, can provide peak capacity to the grid, can ensure that they're never drawing beyond a certain amount of capacity from the grid. Like, that sa…”
Norris: State Regulators and Utilities Will Oppose DOE Interconnection Jurisdiction Expansion
“There's this jurisdictional question, and on that one, I think there's obviously going to be a variety of perspectives, and there will be concerns on the part of, especially of some state commissioners, officials, and certainly the investor-owned utilities.”
Norris: Data centers will pair batteries with diesel backup generators going forward
“My sense is that all those two-hour battery storage deals that we just mentioned at data centers, they still have gensets, likely diesel for those longer duration emergency events, and they're not at all mutually exclusive, and in fact, it may be that predomin…”
Sridhar: Edge AI inference data centers will require 5 to 30 megawatts
“The inference data centers for AI, unlike the CPU data centers of today that are one to 10 megawatts, typically on the edge, are going to be Somewhere between five to 30 megawatts on the edge.”
Large-scale long-duration storage projects will come online by 2026 or 2027
“So I'd say by 20, 26, 20, 27, we'll, we'll see some of these larger scale long duration projects just coming online and we'll definitely be, Watching and likely involved in some of those.”
Waters: Tariff Costs and IRA Cuts Will Likely Hit Utility Ratepayers
“And so then what you'll see is anything around tariffs or IRA incentives getting cut will likely get passed on to the rate payers. That's my best guess from what I'm seeing.”
Frith: Silicon anodes will eventually beat graphite on cost
“Over the next few years, we're going to see the increasing kind of adoption of silicon materials. And again, some silicon materials, not all, but some silicon materials will give you a Cost advantage over graphite. So on a per kilowatt hour basis, you'll have …”
Faruqi: Solar generation will push electricity peak hours into late night
“The peak will keep on going into the later evening, early nighttime hours, and the off peak will be in the middle of the day when the sun is shining and you have a lot of solar generation, both supply side and customer side.”