The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ball: Ammonia transport costs can be double the levelized production costs
“Ammonia, you know, we did a deep dive on what those distribution costs could be, and, you know, you, depending on where you are in, in the U.S., or, and I'll stay U.S. Centered, but this is even more so outside the U.S., Those distribution and transport costs …”
Dreyfus: No existing technology can currently concentrate ultra-dilute atmospheric methane
“We are not currently aware of atmospheric methane concentrators that are able to enhance methane from an ultra dilute to PPM to a higher level of concentration.”
Lockmiller: Half an H100 per US adult would require 250 GW
“If every, you know, American adult used half an H 100 as, You know, a form of co-pilot for their, you know, daily workflows and, you know, social interactions, et cetera. Like, that would require 250 gigawatts of power, right?”
Ellis: Section 45Q provides $80/ton for point-source capture that Sublime cannot claim
“There is a 45 Q tax credit for, you know, it's like 80 dollars a ton for removing CO₂ from a flu stack, and we don't have that.”
Frith: Chinese LFP battery cell prices have fallen to $50/kWh
“We've got LFP prices from China down at kind of 50 bucks per kilowatt hour, which is... That, that's at the sell level, yeah. Exactly, that's at the sell level.”
Apley: Very few carbon removal intermediaries can sign offtakes beyond 2030
“A lot of the intermediaries today in the market, they don't have the balance sheet of a Microsoft or JP Morgan. So, so not all of them are really credit worthy of worthy off takers over a period of 1015 years. And many of them come from an environment where th…”
Johnson: Paying consumers to reduce demand costs 10x less than coal
“In the winter, customers can be paid to turn down electricity instead of ramping up coal, and it was proven that it costs 10 times less to turn down a customer than it does to ramp up coal.”
Johnson: Texas grid batteries earned 4x more revenue than UK in 2023
“A battery in Texas last year, and by battery I mean a grid scale sort of front of the meter asset, made over four times more than a battery in the GB market or the UK market, which is a huge difference.”
Johnson: Grid connections take 1-2 years in Texas versus 15 in UK
“And it's also easier to get a grid connection in Texas than it is in many other parts of the world. I think it takes about one to two years. In the UK, it can take up to 15 years to get a grid connection.”
Bredariol: Most global flaring sites are within 20 kilometers of existing pipelines
“When we look at, you know, the 8000 or more flaring sites across the world. And we take into account existing pipelines, demand centers, and other characteristics. The majority of these sites could probably use a connection to a pipeline. Many of these are act…”
Johnson: Replacing methane power plants with hydrogen cuts emissions by 97%
“If we just said, okay, let's just assume you lose two percent methane, you lose two percent hydrogen. That means if I took that methane and I burned that in a power plant, or I took that hydrogen and I burned that in a power plant, and I'm losing the same amou…”
Johnson: USGS estimates geologic hydrogen resources could reach trillions of tons
“The USGS put out an estimate that this could be on the order of trillions of tons. You know, hundreds of years of energy.”
Dell: Steelmaking emits more greenhouse gases than anything except electricity
“Making steel emits more greenhouse gases than anything else except making electricity.”
Dell: Almost Every Steel Mill Produces More CO2 Than Steel
“So if you look at, like, the total process Of the iron making and the steel making together for a vet, just like a very typical conventional blast furnace facility, you're usually going to end up with more than two tons of CO two per ton of steel, which is kin…”
Dell: Electrifying a single standard steel mill requires four gigawatts of power
“If you were to fully electrify this process, that might be something like four gigawatts of electricity. Average load. Not peak load. Average load. So we're talking about, like, four nuclear power stations to run one normie steel mill.”
Dell: Every metal requires more energy to manufacture than steel
“Every metal besides steel requires more energy to make it than steel does”
Belady: Multi-Chip Modules Drive Power Requirements Up Every Generation
“Now what you're seeing is As you're integrating more and more and getting more and more into the multi chip module, the power keeps going up generation after generation. And so that's a kind of a new dynamic that's really driving a faster need for power to go …”
Loo: Meeting 2030 targets requires doubling globally traded ammonia volumes
“In order to reach that number, the Global Maritime Forum has done some calculations and showed that we need, the sector needs to adopt 10% green fuels by then. 10% green fuels, we already said, you know, that shipping bunkers, three hundred million tons, 10% o…”
Loo: 30% shipping efficiency gains failed to lower net absolute emissions
“If you look at the sector from 2008, we've already reduced emissions by improving fuel savings and energy efficiency to the tune of 30%. Yet, because the trade volumes have gone up so much, net-net, we've not really reduced emissions.”
Loo: Ammonia output must reach 600 to 700 million tons by 2050
“The projection is we need, we will see about six to seven hundred million tons of ammonia by 20 50. Today, it's only about two hundred million tons that's being produced, right?”
Horne: Half the US is accessible for $80/MWh geothermal
“So we've estimated that about half of the United States is accessible for EGS at 80 dollars a megawatt hour.”
BYD priced its compact plug-in hybrid sedans at just over $10,000
“They were able to lower the prices further, until this year, they started a campaign saying, electric cheaper than gas. So they lowered the compact sedan prices to 79.8 K RMB. And that is basically a little more than 10,000”
BYD has no plans to enter the US passenger vehicle market
“I know this from personal connection that BYD just isn't coming to America in the PV market at all.”
Apple had picked BYD to supply batteries for its canceled EV project
“One of the interesting things, if I remember correctly, is actually Apple had already picked BYD as their battery suppliers.”
Janous: AEP's data center demand forecast surged 275% in five months
“If you go even back to January of this year, PJM had Roughly four gigawatts of anticipated data center demand for AEP by 2030, and by May, AEP revised that up to closer to 15, in just five months, right?”
Janus: Every New Dublin Data Center Must Install On-Site Gas Generation
“So now every new data center in Dublin is getting a natural gas generator behind the meter so it can be flexible and, you know, avoid that contribution to system peak.”
Baglino: High-voltage underground cables are comparable in size to fiber bundles
“Those fiber bundles are not that much smaller or different in size than what you would bury for a high voltage transmission line”
Baglino: Total annual global mining outweighs renewable buildout materials 10x
“One of the fun things that we put in the paper was a comparison of how much material humans just move out of the ground every year in total, and the amount of material required for just the This renewable energy economy, and it's actually like a factor of 10, …”
Lubbershane: First-gen biofuels offer only 25% to 40% carbon intensity advantage
“I mean, if you look at most studies, there is an advantage, you know, probably somewhere in the 25 to 40% carbon intensity benefit range relative to fossil fuel.”
Faruqi: Oklahoma Gas and Electric led California in dynamic pricing a decade ago
“Oklahoma Gas and Electric, actually about 10 years ago I discovered That Oklahoma was ahead of California when it came to dynamic pricing”
Shah: US electricity load growth is rising from 0.4% to 2.5% annually
“We are sitting in a moment right now where we are being told, and the data is suggesting that it's true, that we're going from 0.4% load growth a year to two to 2.5% load growth per year.”
Shah: Large warehouses have 200 TWh of cost-effective solar potential
“And when you look at, particularly for commercial distribution circuits you're talking about something on the order of 200 terawatt hours, right? Of cost-effective solar that can be put on warehouses that are four acres or larger in size, right?”
Shah: Full VPP software integration costs roughly $35 million per utility
“Our estimates is that this would cost roughly thirty-five million dollars per utility to put all the software layers in place from the venture-backed companies that have created them to be able to, you know, actually fully integrate this whole suite, right?”
Delta buys 4B gallons of fuel yearly, securing only 3.5M of SAF
“Delta as a company procures four billion gallons of jet fuel every year. Last year we used roughly three and a half million gallons of SAF, and that's not for wanting more. That's all we could get our hands on.”
Friedmann: 47 facilities globally capture 60 million tons of CO2 annually
“So we have something on the order of 47 facilities around the world that operating today that capture CO₂ and keep it out of the air and oceans for climate. Broadly, that's about sixty million tons a year.”
Friedmann: IPCC models show 90% of captured CO2 must go underground
“Out of the, say, six gigatons that the IPCC believes we're going to need to do, five and a half gigatons of that are going to be storage. It's something like 90%.”
Friedmann: CO2-to-concrete is an exothermic, gigaton-scale market
“So turning CO two into concrete is a gigaton market, and it's not nuts. It actually releases energy.”
Kann: China recently banned rare earth extraction and separation technology exports
“Supply is a challenge, and it still largely does come from China, which has just recently, actually, a few months ago, instituted a ban on the export of new technologies for extraction and separation of rare earth elements.”
Garaman: Rare earths are a $20B market that unlocks trillions downstream
“Reverse elements on themselves are about, in 2024, twenty billion dollars market. But the downstream or the industry they unlock is in trillions of dollars.”
Garaman: Up to 85% of mined rare earth oxides have negative market value
“Universally, 7080, 85% of rare earth oxides are going to be negative value rare earth oxides in those mixed earth oxide baskets.”
Grabow: Ships transport only about 2% of US freight
“If you look at The data, something like only two percent of freight in the United States is transported by ships. You add in barges, that's like another four percent. So we're well under 10% for water transport in the U.S.”
Grabow: East Coast refineries import more foreign oil than domestic oil
“East Coast refineries, say, in the Mid-Atlantic they import more oil from places like Libya or the Middle East or Nigeria than they do from Texas, from the Gulf Coast.”
Grabow: U.S. LNG Tankers Cost $700M to Build Versus Under $200M in South Korea
“A few years ago, the Wall Street Journal estimated that to build an LNG tanker in the United States would cost around seven hundred million dollars, whereas at that time you could buy one for, I think, less than two hundred million in South Korea.”
Grabow: U.S. commercial shipbuilding has been globally uncompetitive since the Civil War
“And U.S. Shipbuilding has been uncompetitive literally, you know, since roughly the end of the Civil War. So, you know, a hundred, a 150 years, something like that.”
Moerenhout: China controls 60% to 90% of key battery supply chain steps
“On the refining side, China controls 80% of manganese refining, more than 70% of cobalt and nickel refining, more than 60% of lithium refining. And then you get to the most valuable components, the cathodes, the anodes, right? China controls more than 75% of c…”
Bordoff: 2040 mineral revenue will pale in comparison to oil and gas
“The IA's one of the IA's scenarios that gets you sort of close to 1.5 degrees, if not all the way, has critical mineral revenue growing from forty one billion in 2019 to two hundred and sixty three billion by 2040. Again, that's not all the way to 1.5, maybe 1…”
Bordoff: 2040 mineral volume will be a fraction of fossil fuel production
“Even on a net zero pathway, critical minerals demand does not top thirty million metric tons in 2040, according to the IEA, and by comparison to thirty million metric tons, oil production last year was 4.4 billion. Metric tons. Coal was seven and a half billio…”