Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 92% certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Moerenhout: China controls 60% to 90% of key battery supply chain steps

Tom Moerenhout · The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil? · Apr 11, 2024 · at 26:44

Tom Moerenhout of Columbia University breaks down China's market share across critical mineral refining, component manufacturing, and battery cell assembly.

0:00 / 0:23exact quote · 23.1s

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“On the refining side, China controls 80% of manganese refining, more than 70% of cobalt and nickel refining, more than 60% of lithium refining. And then you get to the most valuable components, the cathodes, the anodes, right? China controls more than 75% of cathode production, more than 90% of anode production. And then eventually with respect to battery cells, they control more than 75%.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

China controls 80% of global manganese refining, over 70% of cobalt and nickel refining, over 60% of lithium refining, over 75% of cathode production, over 90% of anode production, and over 75% of battery cell production.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Industry reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA), BloombergNEF (BNEF), and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence covering the 2022–2024 period confirm all legs of the claim: (1) China controls approximately 85%–95% of battery-grade manganese refining (meeting the ~80% estimate); (2) China accounts for 74%–79% of refined cobalt production (exceeding >70%); (3) China controls over 70% of battery-grade nickel sulfate production and roughly 75% of Indonesian refining capacity via Chinese ownership (meeting >70%); (4) China holds 62%–70% of lithium refining capacity (exceeding >60%); (5) China manufactures 75%–85% of global cathode materials (exceeding >75%); (6) China produces 90%–94% of battery anodes (meeting >90%); and (7) China produces 75%–85% of global battery cells (meeting >75%).

IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook (2024) indicates China holds 90%-95% of battery-grade manganese refining, 74%-78% of refined cobalt, 62%-65% of lithium chemical refining, and over 75% of battery cell and cathode output.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and BloombergNEF (2022-2024) corroborate that China controls 90%-94% of anode production, 80%-85% of cathode production, and over 70% of nickel sulfate refining.

Checked against

[1] iea.org [2] visualcapitalist.com [3] truesourcemetals.com [4] globalxetfs.eu [5] bofit.fi [6] cobaltinstitute.org [7] rff.org [8] anderseninstitute.org

IEA China share of critical minerals refining lithium cobalt nickel manganese cathodes anodes battery cells "China" "cobalt refining" share 2022 OR 2023 OR 2024 IEA OR BNEF OR Benchmark "China" "nickel refining" share 2022 OR 2023 OR 2024 IEA OR BNEF OR Benchmark "China" "manganese refining" OR "refined manganese" share 2023 OR 2024 IEA OR BNEF "manganese refining" China share "80%" OR "85%" OR "90%" 2023 OR 2024 "China" "nickel refining" "70%" OR "75%" OR "control" 2023 OR 2024 IEA China nickel refining market share 2022 OR 2023 OR 2024 "China" "lithium refining" share 2022 OR 2023 OR 2024 IEA OR BNEF OR Benchmark BloombergNEF China supply chain share lithium cobalt nickel manganese cathode anode cell "IEA" "Global EV Outlook 2023" OR "Global EV Outlook 2024" "China's share" "refining" "cathode" "anode"

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

anode battery cells cathode China cobalt lithium manganese nickel

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