Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, compares the economic scale of critical battery minerals against the global oil and gas industry.
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“The IA's one of the IA's scenarios that gets you sort of close to 1.5 degrees, if not all the way, has critical mineral revenue growing from forty one billion in 2019 to two hundred and sixty three billion by 2040. Again, that's not all the way to 1.5, maybe 1.7 or eight. By comparison, annual revenue from oil and gas This year is over seven trillion dollars”
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Insight
Bordoff: Critical mineral supply shocks do not disrupt daily energy use like oil
“So critical minerals are an input to a manufactured good that can produce energy or store energy. It is not energy. We don't burn critical minerals for energy, and so if we had a disruption in some types of critical minerals, you might see delays and much high…”
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AssertionPartly supported
Bordoff: 2040 mineral volume will be a fraction of fossil fuel production
“Even on a net zero pathway, critical minerals demand does not top thirty million metric tons in 2040, according to the IEA, and by comparison to thirty million metric tons, oil production last year was 4.4 billion. Metric tons. Coal was seven and a half billio…”
Jason BordoffApr 11, 2024▶ 36:02The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
AssertionSupported
Bordoff: China's critical mineral dominance is mostly refining and processing
“With critical mineral dominance that China has, most of that is about refining and processing. Those are manufacturing plants, and you can build those in lots and lots of places.”
Jason BordoffApr 11, 2024▶ 39:44The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
AssertionPartly supported
Bordoff: Mineral production is significantly more concentrated than global crude oil
“So the top producers of oil in the world, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, each produce roughly 10% of global crude oil supply. The top producer Of lithium, of cobalt, of rare earths. Each of those, the top producers, each of those produces more than half, an…”
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AssertionSupported
Bordoff: Bringing a new mining project to development averages 16 years
“Right now, it takes, according to the IEA, an average of 16 years to bring a new mining project to development.”
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