Insight certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Bordoff: Critical mineral supply shocks do not disrupt daily energy use like oil

Jason Bordoff · The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil? · Apr 11, 2024 · at 37:56

Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, distinguishes between energy security risks from mineral supply chains versus fossil fuel daily flows.

0:00 / 0:35exact quote · 35.8s
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“So critical minerals are an input to a manufactured good that can produce energy or store energy. It is not energy. We don't burn critical minerals for energy, and so if we had a disruption in some types of critical minerals, you might see delays and much higher costs for batteries. You might have to wait six months or 12 months to be able to buy a new electric vehicle. You might see delays in solar panels. It wouldn't affect your ability to charge your electric car today or get electricity from your solar panel today. So the risks to the macroeconomy are different than they are for oil.”

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More from Jason Bordoff

Assertion Supported
Bordoff: 2040 mineral revenue will pale in comparison to oil and gas
“The IA's one of the IA's scenarios that gets you sort of close to 1.5 degrees, if not all the way, has critical mineral revenue growing from forty one billion in 2019 to two hundred and sixty three billion by 2040. Again, that's not all the way to 1.5, maybe 1…”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 35:26 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Assertion Partly supported
Bordoff: 2040 mineral volume will be a fraction of fossil fuel production
“Even on a net zero pathway, critical minerals demand does not top thirty million metric tons in 2040, according to the IEA, and by comparison to thirty million metric tons, oil production last year was 4.4 billion. Metric tons. Coal was seven and a half billio…”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 36:02 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Assertion Supported
Bordoff: China's critical mineral dominance is mostly refining and processing
“With critical mineral dominance that China has, most of that is about refining and processing. Those are manufacturing plants, and you can build those in lots and lots of places.”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 39:44 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Assertion Partly supported
Bordoff: Mineral production is significantly more concentrated than global crude oil
“So the top producers of oil in the world, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, each produce roughly 10% of global crude oil supply. The top producer Of lithium, of cobalt, of rare earths. Each of those, the top producers, each of those produces more than half, an…”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 38:50 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Assertion Supported
Bordoff: Bringing a new mining project to development averages 16 years
“Right now, it takes, according to the IEA, an average of 16 years to bring a new mining project to development.”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 41:23 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
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