critical minerals

13 statements across 8 episodes · 2 bullish · 4 bearish · 7 people on the record · first statement Feb 2, 2023 by Shayle Kann · across every show →

Everything said about critical minerals, oldest first

Feb 2, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Kann: Battery recycling cannot meet the majority of critical mineral demand today
“I mean, I think the short answer is that you, there is not enough supply of recyclable batteries today to make up for the majority or even close to the majority of the need for critical minerals.”
Shayle Kann Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 32:33 Mailbag episode! Biotech, layoffs, battery recycling and more
Mar 2, 2023
Insight
Bullard: Mineral processing, not extraction, is the clean tech bottleneck
“You know, the determining step for so many of these things is not fundamentally, you know, acts, access or availability within the earth's crust, but where it is that it gets processed.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 23:23 More 2023 trends: EVs, onshoring, and the three ages of decarbonization
Nov 3, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts: Substitution and market supply will solve critical mineral shortages long-term
“I just think substitution plus new sources. Over the midterm, mid to longterm, is going to solve this. I agree that there will be years, couple of years, choke points here and there, as we've all, as we've already seen a couple of materials get tight. But I ju…”
David Roberts Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 59:14 The Volts crossover episode
Nov 3, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Mineral shortages could cause 5-to-10-year stalls in EV adoption
“It's that we'll have like periods of more like five years or 10 years where we do have a shortage and the shortage doesn't translate to we can't sell any more electric vehicles. To higher costs for electric vehicles. And that translates to lower demand. And th…”
Shayle Kann Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 1:01:10 The Volts crossover episode
Apr 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Bordoff: 2040 mineral revenue will pale in comparison to oil and gas
“The IA's one of the IA's scenarios that gets you sort of close to 1.5 degrees, if not all the way, has critical mineral revenue growing from forty one billion in 2019 to two hundred and sixty three billion by 2040. Again, that's not all the way to 1.5, maybe 1…”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 35:26 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Apr 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Bordoff: China's critical mineral dominance is mostly refining and processing
“With critical mineral dominance that China has, most of that is about refining and processing. Those are manufacturing plants, and you can build those in lots and lots of places.”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 39:44 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Apr 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Bordoff: 2040 mineral volume will be a fraction of fossil fuel production
“Even on a net zero pathway, critical minerals demand does not top thirty million metric tons in 2040, according to the IEA, and by comparison to thirty million metric tons, oil production last year was 4.4 billion. Metric tons. Coal was seven and a half billio…”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 36:02 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Apr 11, 2024 neutral
Insight
Bordoff: Critical mineral supply shocks do not disrupt daily energy use like oil
“So critical minerals are an input to a manufactured good that can produce energy or store energy. It is not energy. We don't burn critical minerals for energy, and so if we had a disruption in some types of critical minerals, you might see delays and much high…”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 37:56 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Jan 2, 2025 neutral
Insight
Scheyder: Republicans view critical minerals as national security, Democrats as climate
“I think Republicans and Democrats look at the critical minerals issue with the same end goal in mind, but they sort of take two different paths to get there. Republicans tend to look at this issue from a national security lens. Democrats tend to try to look at…”
Ernest Scheyder Jan 2, 2025 ▶ 29:32 Lithium’s wild ride
Apr 24, 2025
Assertion Supported
Kann: China's rare earth dominance exceeds other critical mineral sectors
“China dominates rare earths more than basically any other area of critical minerals, which is saying something because China is pretty dominant in a bunch of areas.”
Shayle Kann Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 2:18 The geopolitics of rare earth elements
May 1, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Chaset: Policy Uncertainty Makes Capital-Intensive Climate Tech Uninvestable Near-Term
“So I would say none of them because they all require Large capital investments that require certainty and we are in a period of massive uncertainty across the board. So I would actually say I'm fairly bearish on all of those in the near term because I actually…”
Nick Chaset May 1, 2025 ▶ 37:41 Catalyst Live at SF Climate Week
May 1, 2025 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Schroepfer: US Produces None of Six Critical Minerals Banned by China
“China just, you know, banned the export of six major critical minerals. We make none of these in the United States so that seems like a real big problem.”
Mike Schroepfer May 1, 2025 ▶ 35:58 Catalyst Live at SF Climate Week
Feb 25, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2046
Roberts predicts recycled minerals will become cheaper than mined within 20 years
“I would just say that my, I guess my prediction would be that in 10 years, maybe or in 20, that just a unit of critical minerals drawn from recycling will be cheaper than a unit of Mind. I think. I think. Eventually. Like, I think it will end up being our prim…”
David Roberts Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 50:49 Volts crossover: Six big energy questions
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