Federal Reserve, every mention
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tap a year for its mentions
every year anyone James Aitken 69Josh Friedman 19Ted Seides 14Rick Rieder 13Alex Shahidi 12Eric Peters 10Marko Papic 8Ben Hunt 7Rob Citrone 6Porter Collins 6
Verbatim, from the transcripts: the passages where Federal Reserve comes up
Bruce MacDonald – The Playbook for Building a Mid-Sized Endowment from Scratch (EP.495)
- ▶ 16:21 Bruce MacDonald That underpinning in fixed income helped me think about the cascading effect of changes in the economy, to how the Fed behaved, to how interest rates were set, and then how asset prices were set.
Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP.493)
- ▶ 51:00 Jeremy Grantham Even Bernanke, who ran the Fed, 2 times in the scene
Robert Boucai & James Broyer – Tax-Efficient Multifamily Real Estate at Newbrook (EP.475)
- ▶ 19:34 Robert Bukai You're subject to the Fed raising and lowering rates.
Mason Morfit and Rob Hale – Quiet Activism at ValueAct (EP.462)
- ▶ 58:38 Mason Morfit So we went to Capitol Hill and we met with this banking committee and we went to the Fed and we talked about regulators and we even went to try to get in to visit Occupy Wall Street so that they could give us their point of view.
CIO Greatest Hits: Sovereign Wealth Funds – Raphael Arndt (Australia Future Fund)
- ▶ 58:08 Raphael Arndt We've got the Fed raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet, liquidity coming out of the system, and usually that ends in a recession.
Ron Kantowitz – Direct Lending's Evolution and Invesco's Edge (EP.457)
- ▶ 34:28 Ron Cantowitz What's the Fed going to do?
Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
- ▶ 46:38 James Aitken And by the way, we haven't even talked about the Fed yet, which is extraordinary, but such as the world we're in. 3 times in the scene
Howard Marks – Navigating Private Credit (EP.439)
- ▶ 15:53 Howard Marks The Fed took rates down to fight the swoon and people lost interest in the bond market.
- ▶ 35:17 Howard Marks And then the fed had to raise interest rates to cool off the economy to fight the inflation.
- ▶ 40:00 Howard Marks We had a conference, and everybody was asking me, when is the Fed going to start cutting rates, and how much, when's the recession going to start, and which month? 3 times in the scene
Scott Bessent - Macro Maven (EP.415)
- ▶ 54:11 Scott Bessent If Republicans, which I'm pulling for, get the trifecta, I think there could be a growth shock and animal spirits are back and maybe the feds jumbo rate cut was a mistake. 2 times in the scene
David Breazzano - High Yields and Low Risk at Polen Capital (EP.405)
- ▶ 45:55 Dave Brizano Now, any month, it's going to bounce around based on the price of the bond, or what the Fed does, or what other people assume.
David Eichhorn - Serving Clients and Reducing Risk at NISA (EP.403)
- ▶ 46:19 David Eichhorn There's a lot of areas of our economy that have been really insulated from the Fed activity.
Ben Hunt - The Stories that Drive Markets (EP.393)
- ▶ 16:03 Ben Hunt What is it about the communication policy forward guidance, the storytelling of the Fed that impacts markets?
- ▶ 25:26 Ben Hunt So this is the Fed is hawkish. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 36:20 Ben Hunt We're recording this on the day of a Fed press conference, which I was listening to that coming in today, and I was listening to the commentary, the opinion leading, before the press conference. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 49:08 Ben Hunt And the nonstop diet of when is the Fed going to cut? 2 times in the scene
Chris Dixon - Empty Rooms: Web3 After the Fall (EP.380)
- ▶ 36:47 Chris Dixon And you call these people and they give you these weird numbers, fed reference numbers, et cetera.
Shiloh Bates – CLO Investing at Flat Rock Global (EP.379)
- ▶ 12:41 Shiloh Bates And then today, because CLO BBs are floating rate, and because the Fed has hiked so much, we're getting yields in the 12% plus area, and defaults have been really, really minimal.
Michael Mauboussin - Pattern Recognition and Public Markets (EP.370)
- ▶ 47:38 Michael Mauboussin Fed funds rate close to zero.
Morgan Housel – Same as Ever (EP.359)
- ▶ 40:52 Morgan Housel Is because there's a terrorist attack, or a pandemic, or a surprise from the Fed, and in that context, it's much harder to be optimistic and view it as a buying opportunity.
Thomas Haugaard - Hard Currency Emerging Markets Debt at JHI (EP.356)
- ▶ 36:20 Thomas Haugaard And on top of that, the Fed does look like it's very close to the end of tightening.
Ted Seides – Unlocking Investment Wisdom (EP.352)
- ▶ 25:11 Ted Seides Fed came in, and I don't think the hedge funds had another, like, positive year since.
Ted Martell – Empty Rooms: Commercial Real Estate Non-Performing Loans in NYC at Maverick Real Estate (EP.349)
- ▶ 38:35 Ted Martell I think there's so much uncertainty around what the Fed will do next.
Kipp deVeer – The World of Private Credit at Ares (EP.329)
- ▶ 5:36 Ted Seides So while we watch a summer of tennis heading into the US Open to see if the guard has in fact changed, and we simultaneously watch the Fed
Seth Klarman – Timeless Value Investing (EP.328)
- ▶ 1:07:11 Seth Klarman I always thought there should be an asterisk on private equity because those guys got rescued by the Fed rushing in, cutting rates, and Congress's stimulus plans as well, which a lot of private equity debt was trading down to 50 cents on…
James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
- ▶ 10:24 James Aitken And it's only as we turned into the late first quarter and second quarter of 2023 that, for example, the real Fed funds rate turned positive. 5 times in the scene
- ▶ 14:57 James Aitken This is a very tentative observation, but unlike most spectacularly, 2006 to 2008, perhaps the elasticity of U.S. household balance sheets and U.S. household consumption to rising fed rates is much lower simply because U.S. households… 5 times in the scene
- ▶ 23:22 Ted Seides And let me start that with something I always scratch my head in trying to understand, which is what you've just described is the Fed assuming, let's just call it at best mark to market losses at banks. 4 times in the scene
- ▶ 44:46 James Aitken And if the Fed is genuine about risk management with regards to inflation, the Fed is incentivized to overdo it. 4 times in the scene
- ▶ 55:31 James Aitken Around the hapless Andrew Bailey and his Bank of England is bad, or the ECB or any other central bank, not to forget the Fed.
Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel - Big Shorts and Big Longs (Capital Allocators, EP.325)
- ▶ 37:55 Porter Collins And the balance sheet's completely controlled by the Fed. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 39:47 Porter Collins What I think we're wrestling with right now is that you have tech stocks reaching to the all-time highs, the Fed on its most aggressive hiking campaign ever. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 46:34 Vincent Daniel Whenever something goes wrong, they have to call the bat phone, which is the Federal Reserve. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 55:00 Porter Collins So I think it's the shenanigans that's going on in corporate America, in the investment space, in the Fed, in Congress. 2 times in the scene
Don Mullen –Single-Family Rentals at Pretium (Capital Allocators, EP.324)
- ▶ 31:14 Don Mullen If the Fed raises rates, as some people are suggesting, one or two more times, mortgages will be seven. 2 times in the scene
Amy Falls – From Bonds to Boards to Leading Northwestern (Capital Allocators, EP.316)
Aaron Sack – Branded Middle Market Investing at Morgan Stanley (Capital Allocators, EP.311)
- ▶ 32:47 Aaron Sack So past downturns have had this wonderful cushioning effect of the Fed taking short-term rates precipitously down and throwing money back at the problem.
Venture Capital Panel – Beezer Clarkson, Chris Douvos, and Joelle Kayden (Capital Allocators, EP.299)
- ▶ 6:35 Chris Douvos Well, look, we lived through a time of extraordinarily accommodative Fed policy.
Dan Ivascyn – Fixed Income in the Limelight Again (Capital Allocators, EP.298)
- ▶ 41:25 Dan Ivascyn If we see even moderate declines in EBITDA over the course of the next few quarters with the fed at five percent and gosh, six percent would be a real challenge.
Anthony Scaramucci – Another Winter and Another Rebirth (Capital Allocators, EP.292)
- ▶ 13:48 Anthony Scaramucci I was left with the Fed white paper, which came out in 2017, talking about the digitization of assets. 4 times in the scene
Ana Marshall – Preparing for the New Environment at Hewlett (Capital Allocators, EP. 288)
- ▶ 16:31 Ana Marshall The conversation, for example, at the beginning of this year was we think the feds going to raise rates.
Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
- ▶ 20:35 Tom Majewski Admittedly, they have the Fed window, and I think that probably makes some people behave differently in the future, but the number of banks that suffered the run on the bank, even as recently as 2008,
- ▶ 50:53 Tom Majewski You look at a handful of those scenarios, and let's say everything works out really quickly, and the Fed pivots quickly, and rates start coming down, and defaults stay very low.
Frank Brosens – Culture and Partnership at Taconic Capital (Capital Allocators, EP.282)
- ▶ 43:58 Frank Brosens The Fed is clearly heading in a direction of trying to tighten financial conditions 2 times in the scene
Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
- ▶ 24:43 Farouk Miah If you think the last six months of Fed rates increasing and what we've seen around the world is transitory.
Louis-Vincent Gave – The Case for Emerging Markets (Capital Allocators, EP.275)
- ▶ 7:15 Louis-Vincent Gave You have central bank reserves held at the fed for foreign central banks, which is for us a key indicator of liquidity that's been shrinking all year. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 10:15 Louis-Vincent Gave The Fed is going to be much more hawkish than anybody expects. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 15:39 Louis-Vincent Gave This is the first Fed tightening cycle in my lifetime where emerging market bonds are crushing U.S.
- ▶ 15:57 Ted Seides As you talked about, the Fed's behavior might not be all that much different than what you've seen in some of the governments of the emerging markets historically.
- ▶ 25:26 Ted Seides There's a fair amount of what's happened over the last couple of years in the US, particularly with the central bank, the Fed, that feels like actions of emerging markets in the past.
Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
- ▶ 34:40 Andy Acker We could see that the fed was behind the eight ball and really was going to need to increase interest rates rapidly.
Friends Reunion 2 – Five Allocators Riff on Investing with Meredith Jenkins, Casey Whalen, Brett Barth, Jon Harris, and Ted Seides (Capital Allocators, EP.271)
- ▶ 11:00 Brett Barth What is the Fed going to do?
- ▶ 36:48 Brett Barth And if the Fed raises another 75 basis points, cash is a whole lot less trash.
Ted Seides – Insights on investing and podcasting (Capital Allocators, EP.269)
- ▶ 53:16 Ted Seides And a big part of that was Fed coming in and interest rates dropping, which on a nominal basis hurts hedge fund returns and is inconsequential to public market returns.
Howard Smith – Japanese Equities at Indus Capital (Manager Meetings, EP.35)
- ▶ 11:22 Howard Smith He was very well connected at the Federal Reserve and
- ▶ 23:05 Howard Smith U.S. politics or geopolitics or the Federal Reserve is much easier here than it was in Tokyo.
Paul Enright – Inside Long-Short Equity Investing (Capital Allocators, EP.266)
- ▶ 12:28 Paul Enright And I think this is in some way related to the Fed in that
Josh Friedman – Master Class in Credit Investing at Canyon (Capital Allocators, EP.263)
- ▶ 29:47 Josh Friedman When the market just exploded and the Fed started raising rates, now the high yield market's down 14% year to date, the investment grade's down massively, the equity indices are down massively, and all of a sudden the opportunity set is…
- ▶ 43:48 Josh Friedman The first thing that happens when the Fed starts raising rates like this is a lot of mutual funds that own long duration, low rate paper find that it immediately drops in price. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 49:22 Josh Friedman I think that some of the inflation will take care of itself, some of the supply chain things, and some of it is much more difficult, and no matter what the Fed does, it's very hard to take the inflation out of it. 14 times in the scene
- ▶ 52:45 Josh Friedman What's different this time, of course, is that unlike the COVID-induced problem where the Fed was there to the rescue, the Fed here is the cause. 2 times in the scene
Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)
- ▶ 7:59 Rob Citrone But then the Fed came in and just eased liquidity massively. 6 times in the scene
Ashvin Chhabra – The Aspirational Investor (Capital Allocators, EP.260)
- ▶ 59:16 Ashvin Chhabra And I thought about it quite deeply, not that I know that much about the bond market of how the Fed reacts, but it occurred to me that people were unnecessarily concerned about interest rates going up, and there were sort of two easy… 2 times in the scene
Stephen McKeon – NFTs and the Consumer in Web3 (EP.255, Crypto for Institutions 2, EP.02)
- ▶ 43:53 Stephen McKeon We have to send payments up through the Correspondent Banking System or the Federal Reserve because Wells Fargo has their ledger, and Bank of America has their ledger, and those ledgers don't talk to each other.
Larry Kochard – From Endowment Professor to OCIO Chief at Makena Capital (Capital Allocators, EP.250)
- ▶ 45:12 Larry Kochard What the Fed is doing, what other banks around in the developed world are doing right now in terms of tightening, for good reason, in terms of inflation ticking up. 2 times in the scene
Sahil Bloom – Creativity, Investing, and Engineered Serendipity (Capital Allocators, EP.249)
- ▶ 23:09 Sahil Bloom The Fed was pumping untold amounts of cash into the economy in all different ways, saying that there wasn't going to be inflation.
Steve Drobny – Where the World is Going at Clocktower Group (Manager Meeting, 30)
- ▶ 16:09 Steve Drobny And so, as the world, when I looked at who we wanted to lead our strategy unit, and I looked at the world of financial thinkers out there, most of them were monetary policy-based, Fed-focused. 2 times in the scene
Greg Dowling – Mid-Market Institutional Consulting at FEG (Capital Allocators, EP.248)
- ▶ 54:44 Greg Dowling Rates and how the fed reacts to inflation. 2 times in the scene
Andrew Milgram – Mid-Market Distressed Investing at Marblegate (Manager Meetings EP.29)
- ▶ 16:10 Andrew Milgram You know, the banking market still provides the overwhelming amount of capital provided to companies in this country, and those banks are required to have covenants, and they have well-structured loans in order for them to be what are…
Tom Lenehan – Taking the Helm at the Wallace Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.246)
- ▶ 34:12 Tom Lenehan I tend to think that the Federal Reserve, they never seem to get it right. 2 times in the scene
James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
- ▶ 26:46 James Aitken And there's also been this rather strange discussion in markets about, oh, does the Fed, for example, face a hard trade-off between growth and inflation, which I found a bit strange. 4 times in the scene
- ▶ 44:25 James Aitken I think the Fed has an opportunity to tighten here maybe a few times because US growth is a bit more solid than certainly Europe.
Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
- ▶ 13:38 Marko Papic Maybe there's a little bit of a perception that Fed might back off, but I don't see that in the bond market. 4 times in the scene
- ▶ 20:30 Marko Papic And the reason for that is the Fed is pretty hawkish and Ukraine, Russia tensions could dissipate.
Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
- ▶ 58:58 Josh Wolfe Kindness of strangers and the public markets and the kindness and benevolence of the Fed that has printed money and inflated valuations.
Brian Higgins - King Street Capital (Manager Meeting, EP. 21)
- ▶ 21:15 Brian Higgins So, very difficult time, as we know, and obviously some unfortunate things in terms of health-wise for people, and so that's a sad time, and I think the government stepped in, and the Fed, and ECB, and ring-fenced a lot of these…
- ▶ 40:49 Brian Higgins The debate about transitory, I think one of the Fed governors talked about, it's, it's really about secular and cyclical, and so this cycle moving in certain aspects, their inflation, I think,
Rick Rieder – BlackRock (Manager Meetings, EP.08)
- ▶ 35:32 Rick Rieder I'm pretty wigged out, but I think the Fed's waiting too long, and I think they're making a mistake. 13 times in the scene
Bruce Martin – Still Lake Capital [Manager Meetings, EP.7)
- ▶ 14:11 Bruce Martin So they brought me in, and I took the job, and the guy who was training me, he had worked at the Fed. 2 times in the scene
Greg Jensen – Bridgewater Associates (Manager Meetings, EP.06)
- ▶ 24:30 Greg Jensen The Fed had changed their policy. 3 times in the scene
- ▶ 29:16 Greg Jensen But instead, you've got the Fed purposely lagging it, allowing that to go. 2 times in the scene
Jonathan Lewinsohn – Diameter Capital Partners (Manager Meetings, EP.05)
- ▶ 49:35 Jonathan Lewinsohn I really think, like, part of being a Federal Reserve governor, or being in any central bank, used to be,
- ▶ 55:56 Jonathan Lewinsohn And then turn around and say, we still think COVID is really bad, but the federal reserve just said they're going to buy investment grade bonds and high old ETFs.
Julia Bonafede – Rosetta Analytics (Manager Meetings, EP.04)
- ▶ 52:50 Julia Bonafede So I think that's a good indication of what happened in March and April, that that ability, and had the Fed not stepped in, you probably would have seen the true aftermath of what
Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
- ▶ 15:00 Jeremy Grantham And we know the push on stock prices is a combination of central banks, the Federal Reserve, and fiscal spending.
- ▶ 19:20 Jeremy Grantham It was not done by a massive change in the Federal Reserve policy or any government spending program.
- ▶ 28:29 Alex Shahidi There's a comment saying, don't fight the Fed. 8 times in the scene
- ▶ 51:58 Alex Shahidi How do you think about leverage and being able to borrow at one percent or below and investing in something in terms of not fighting the fed, not fighting mother nature?
- ▶ 54:43 Alex Shahidi And the Fed has vowed to avoid deflation at all costs and create inflation using all the tools at its disposal. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 59:47 Alex Shahidi Well, the Fed is certainly trying to achieve that.
Jeff Housenbold – Inside Softbank Vision Fund (Capital Allocators, EP.186)
- ▶ 51:44 Jeff Hausenbold I think Janet Yellen and the head of the Fed have indicated strongly to the capital markets that the Fed put is going to be in place, i.e. that they're going to backstop liquidity 2 times in the scene
Crypto for Institutions 3: Seth Ginns – Investing Beyond Bitcoin (Capital Allocators, EP.182)
- ▶ 9:16 Seth Ginns When I saw the macro environment being one where we had a deflationary overhang and a Fed at the time that wasn't willing to commit to a consistent stimulus.
- ▶ 1:02:29 Seth Ginns The journal in particular is such a good Fed source, so you kind of pick up on, like, what's happening in the Fed weeks or months before it comes into the broader consciousness.
Crypto for Institutions 1: Eric Peters – The Macro Case for Bitcoin (Capital Allocators, EP.180)
- ▶ 24:45 Eric Peters I mean, the Fed can create infinite amount of money with electronically in the banking system, just the same way that you could theoretically create infinite amounts of digital assets.
- ▶ 28:44 Eric Peters If you have the Fed and the Treasury, in many respects, co-joined, and the Treasury's issuing a lot of debt, and the Fed is creating money to buy that debt, and then it's being spent and kind of pumped into the economy, and the Fed is…
Acting Chairman Rostin Behnam – CFTC Regulatory Perspectives on Crypto and Climate (Capital Allocators, EP.178)
- ▶ 7:16 Rostin Behnam And the SEC is obviously, like I said, one of the two market regulators, but we work closely also with the Prudential regulators, which again, many of your listeners will know as the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, the OCC.
- ▶ 48:32 Rostin Behnam Some work has been done at the Fed, especially at the regional level, to talk about climate risk, but I thought since this sort of road is wide open, let's do a broad, comprehensive review.
- ▶ 59:51 Rostin Behnam You've seen a lot of work by the Federal Reserve just in the past couple of weeks and advancements in their view on climate change, and they've been doing it for a number of years.
Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
- ▶ 22:37 Marko Papic We're at zero interest rates, and we had the Jackson Hole consensus, where the Fed told us what they were going to do. 3 times in the scene
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