Donald Trump

489 statements across 164 episodes · 175 bullish · 175 bearish · 63 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 7,602 times in 362 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (2955), David Sacks (1510), Chamath Palihapitiya (1018), David Friedberg (579), Howard Lutnick (222), Mark Cuban (120), Ben Shapiro (68), Senator Ron Johnson (46)

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2026 830 mentions in 57 episodes 15 per episode
2025 2,486 mentions in 96 episodes 26 per episode
2024 1,673 mentions in 57 episodes 29 per episode
2023 814 mentions in 49 episodes 17 per episode
2022 368 mentions in 46 episodes 8 per episode
2021 584 mentions in 41 episodes 14 per episode
2020 847 mentions in 16 episodes 53 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Donald Trump, oldest first

Mar 15, 2020
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Official announcement will state President Trump tested negative for COVID-19
“I think that the answer that we will get is that he's negative.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 41:10 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Trump's early COVID-19 messaging degraded CDC, HHS, and media responses
“Trump had to draw a line in the sand, which is, I'm not going to threaten my presidency, and so he had to downplay it, and he had to sort of, you know puff up his chest a little bit, and that kind of rhetoric from the president of the United States, whether yo…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 6:20 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020 bullish
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Trump's private-sector COVID testing push was a brilliant move to spread blame
“Tapping the private sector in many ways is it's a brilliant strategy politically because it now sort of embraces A whole bunch of companies that are in the consciousness of America as part of the solution which actually by implication means that if this thing …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 13:51 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: COVID-19 stimulus could increase Trump's reelection odds
“If he is able to salvage an enormous economic stimulus package, I think the odds are on his side that history will judge that he will have done a good job. And more than that, his odds of getting reelected are actually higher than in the absence of Corona.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 16:06 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Trump has a 20% to 30% chance of having COVID-19
“I'm gonna put it at, I think he's got a 20% chance of having it. 30, something in that range.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 40:55 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
May 21, 2020 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Donald Trump will win the 2020 election
“I think that Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to win as a function of people's frustration about the lockdowns.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 21, 2020 ▶ 31:51 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
May 21, 2020 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya asserts Obama and Trump manipulated US unemployment statistics
“The unemployment numbers that we have had in the last probably seven or eight years. So during Obama and Trump have been completely manipulated because the number of people that are entirely leaving the workforce is quite high.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 21, 2020 ▶ 26:02 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jun 20, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump has 75% chance of losing 2020 election, odds will narrow
“Right now I think it's sort of, 75, 25 he loses. I think that's going to get closer to 55, 45 as the date comes close.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 20, 2020 ▶ 1:09:53 E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jun 20, 2020 neutral
Insight
Friedberg: Voters in economic pain seek an agent of change like Trump
“But the more people are feeling pain, the more they're looking for an agent of change. And I think Trump against Biden is still going to be that agent of change.”
David Friedberg Jun 20, 2020 ▶ 1:12:38 E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jun 20, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Trump has a 70% chance of winning the 2020 election
“I still think Trump's going to win. I'd say 70% chance Trump wins.”
David Friedberg Jun 20, 2020 ▶ 1:11:03 E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jul 11, 2020
Prediction Partly held up
Trump will lose Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Florida before he loses Georgia
“If you think that there is an even remote chance that Donald Trump loses Georgia, Don't even worry about Minnesota and Pennsylvania and Florida because he would have already lost those in order to lose Georgia.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 1:29:16 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Trump's only 2020 victory path is passing multi-trillion dollar stimulus checks
“There is one thin path for him to win, which is to absolutely shower America with money close to the election day. So if there is a multi, multi trillion dollar stimulus bill that passes and it literally puts money into the hands of working Americans, especial…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 1:28:14 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 31, 2020 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg predicts Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election
“I'd go Trump.”
David Friedberg Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:21:32 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Sep 9, 2020 positive
Insight
Chamath: Biden maximizes demand as a low-conviction alternative to Trump
“To support Donald Trump, you have to have a view. To support Joe Biden, you can have no view. And I think that that in general, that's a demand maximizing thing to do. So I think he's relatively well positioned.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 1:02:34 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election
“I would I predict Trump at this moment.”
David Sacks Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 1:07:57 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump's message on urban unrest and recovery is a winning pitch
“I think, you know, Trump has sort of found his sales pitch now in opposing the, basically the radical left and these mobs and protests that seem to be you know, causing tremendous unrest and looting and violence in our cities, and I think it's in combination w…”
David Sacks Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 1:03:53 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 19, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump will win election if cancel culture pendulum swings too far
“Mark my words, if people feel that the pendulum has swung too far, they will elect Donald Trump because he is the complete antithesis of giving a shit about any of this stuff.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 1:16:32 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Sep 19, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Woodward COVID revelations are already priced into Trump's election odds
“I think it's sort of priced into the stock. You know, I mean, look, if it weren't for COVID, I think that if you go back to like January, February, when Trump gave that state of the union speech, his ratings were the highest they had been. The economy was on f…”
David Sacks Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 49:08 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Sep 19, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Permanent lockdown alternative will help Trump win the 2020 election
“At this point, I would think, I think that COVID is, COVID policy is a net plus for Trump in this campaign, because, you know, the other side of it is is, is, is these permanent lockdowns. You know, there's just an article in was it foreign policy saying that …”
David Sacks Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 48:24 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Sep 19, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Biden will lose to Trump if he flubs 2020 debates
“And, if Biden flubs the debate and basically comes out as you know, intellectually too inconsistent to be voted in by a plurality of Americans, he's done for and Trump's gonna win.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 50:13 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Sep 19, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: A decisive Trump win could break the US two-party system
“I think if Donald Trump wins in a meaningful way in November, I don't think he will, but if he does, the actual silver lining for everybody is I think the Republican Party will disintegrate, and the Democratic Party will disintegrate. And in its place, I think…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 1:19:04 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Oct 3, 2020
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Trump received eight grams of Regeneron polyclonal antibodies
“So he got eight grams of polyclonal antibodies. This is the Regeneron formulation.”
David Friedberg Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 9:18 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Trump's COVID diagnosis will likely de-escalate mask and testing debates
“And so I think probably we're going to deescalate a little bit Of mask stuff, of testing stuff, of, you know, what the right course of care is”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 3:32 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump diagnosis guarantees transparent COVID data will come out soon
“That it's now basically a hundred percent guaranteed that we will have all of the most transparent data about coronavirus soon.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 2:44 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Severe COVID-19 case could hurt Trump in campaign's final months
“I think that if he has a hard time with the virus, if it's innervating the way that I think it took out Boris Johnson, I mean, I've heard British commentators say that Boris Johnson's just not, not even the same, doesn't have the same level of energy even now …”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 7:06 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump's 2020 election chances are higher than betting markets imply
“Yeah, and it's probably bigger than 30%. Yeah, it's probably bigger, slightly bigger than what the betting markets are giving them credit for.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 1:06:43 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020 positive
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Trump should recover quickly from COVID due to antibody therapy
“These you know taking these antibodies to the coronavirus, and he got eight grams of this immunoglobulin therapy that is basically a bunch of antibodies that'll eliminate the virus, and they're not widely available, they're not publicly available, these treatm…”
David Friedberg Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 1:57 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump has a 50 percent chance of a quick COVID-19 recovery
“I think the most likely outcome here is that because he's got the best care he's, you know, I'd say it's probably like at least 50% that this is over for him in about a week. And it redounds to his political advantage. I think there's probably 40% chance that,…”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 17:25 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: COVID mortality rate for a 74-year-old is 2% to 4%
“I think the overall mortality rate for someone of his age is in, call it the two to four percent range, right?”
David Friedberg Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 1:32 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Inability to hold rallies could swing election against Trump
“Yeah, I think if he can't do rallies, I think You know, that could easily swing the election a couple of points and cause them to lose.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 18:43 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Rapid COVID recovery will make Trump look strong to voters
“So I think that if he rapidly recovers from this and hits the campaign trail again, it's going to make him look, Strong.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 6:58 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 16, 2020 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump will lose 2020 election if treated as referendum
“And to the extent the election is a referendum on Trump. I think he's going to get repudiated.”
David Sacks Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 45:28 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Oct 16, 2020 negative
What-if
Sacks: Consistent moderation rules would have blocked Trump tax return coverage
“Because if they were to apply these standards evenly, they would have blocked the Trump tax returns for the exact same reason.”
David Sacks Oct 16, 2020 ▶ 30:32 E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more
Nov 4, 2020
What-if
Sacks: Trump embracing masks would have won him the election decisively
“Had he just gone all in on a mass policy, I think this would not even be a close election.”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:37:42 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 positive
Prediction Held up
Michael Newman: Donald Trump will safely win Florida in 2020 election
“NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win that state. So you can put that safely in the Trump column.”
Michael Newman Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 11:12 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Re-electing Donald Trump is an existential threat to global democracy
“It's an existential threat to the entire planet and humanity and democracy across the world if this country puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn fucking more years.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:00:32 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: COVID lockdown backlash will supersede anger over Trump's pandemic response
“If the woke left insists on permanent lockdowns, Trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of COVID response.”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 34:59 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts the Republican Party will split in two
“And the reality is the Republicans may actually quasi cleave into independent of whether Trump wins or not anyways.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 55:12 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Assertion Contradicted
Michael Newman: Donald Trump must win five specific states for victory
“He had to have those five, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.”
Michael Newman Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 22:28 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Forex markets indicate Donald Trump has a real shot at winning
“We're seeing Forex markets show a sharp indication that Trump has a real shot at winning here.”
David Friedberg Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:25 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 positive
Prediction Held up
Michael Newman: Donald Trump and Thom Tillis will win North Carolina
“He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing all night. We've got about 88% of the vote in now, and I suspect he's home free, as is the Republican incumbent senator there.”
Michael Newman Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 11:22 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Prediction Held up
Michael Newman: Donald Trump will win Ohio in the 2020 election
“Unless all of Cleveland is outstanding, I would say that's a Trump state.”
Michael Newman Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 24:14 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Markets will rally if Trump wins or Republicans keep Senate control
“Look, I think the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed. Stocks just ripped after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts. So if either Trump wins or the Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip.”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:17:16 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Friedberg: Trump's cult of personality draws voters seeking non-traditional leadership
“I think it is that cult of personality that cultural personality draws so many people in that are just you know, feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don't need something from the old school”
David Friedberg Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 6:23 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Markets are prepared to navigate another four years of Trump
“I think the market's fully prepared to manage its way through another four years of Trump, so I think that's, you know, the reason we're seeing the futures react the way they are, is it's a whole lot of nothing.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:24:15 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Held up
David Sacks claims Donald Trump will perform better on Election Day ballots in Arizona
“Yeah, so, so Arizona, they counted all the absentee ballots for the mail-in ballots first, but the in-person voting hasn't been counted yet. So you can't call that state if they haven't counted all the in-person, because Trump's going to do better with, you kn…”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:40:49 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump has done nothing in office and is a complete void
“I'll ignore his bullshit because honestly, he's done nothing. He will do nothing. He is a complete fucking void.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:53:04 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Newman predicts Trump will fire Fauci, Wray, and possibly Barr if re-elected
“Oh, I think you can count on it. Fauci and Christopher Wray, the FBI director, and increasingly maybe Bill Barr too.”
Michael Newman Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:01:02 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Phil Hellmuth: Donald Trump outworked Joe Biden in the 2020 election
“There's no doubt that he outworked Biden. I mean, this guy's going to seven rallies a day showing up with a ton of energy, and he has, you know, like him or not, he has a lot of charisma.”
Phil Hellmuth Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 53:57 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hellmuth: Donald Trump is a 3-to-1 favorite in betting markets
“Right now, if you want to bet, Trump is a three to one favorite and there's been billions of dollars bet in England, Australia, all over the world. He's a three to one favorite.”
Phil Hellmuth Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 16:26 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Donald Trump is like Steve Jobs in how he warps reality
“He is like Steve Jobs. He warps reality, and he tells everyone, I am going to win.”
David Friedberg Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 57:47 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump must sweep Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win
“Trump now has to win Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states, he wins. He has to be a three for three in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:52:33 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: The US cannot move past COVID under a Trump presidency
“I think that we can't get past COVID With Trump, because the TDSers are so convinced that it has to be problematic”
Bill Gurley Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:50:04 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 11, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump will claim the 2020 election was stolen based on vaccine timing
“So it's not something that's legally actionable, but I do think that on this news alone, Trump in four years will be able to claim on some level that this was a stolen election.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 13:48 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Trump's Achilles heel was demanding too much voter attention
“I think voters want a presidency they can forget about. You know, I think Trump's sort of Achilles heel as he demanded too much of the voters constant time and attention.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 10:40 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts Trump will launch a Fox News competitor and become GOP kingmaker
“I think he will become a kingmaker Republican politics. He will launch a competitor to Fox news, but it will also be Fox news hybridized with a grassroots movement like the tea party.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 1:00:13 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 neutral
What-if
Calacanis: Trump would have won if Pfizer news broke before election
“I believe if the Pfizer news comes out last week, Trump wins”
Jason Calacanis Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 5:15 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks: Trump will concede the 2020 election by Thanksgiving
“I predict by Thanksgiving but it may have to go up to the Supreme Court, but he's gonna dot the, dot every I and cross every T that he's got legally.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 57:52 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Supreme Court would rule against Trump at least 7-2
“I believe if it gets to the Supreme Court, it will be at least seven to two, if not eight one or nine zero.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 1:06:03 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: There is a zero percent chance Donald Trump runs in 2024
“Zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 59:34 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 positive
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump probably wins the 2024 Republican nomination if he runs
“He's going to have enough arguments where if he wants to run four years from now I think he probably gets the Republican nomination again.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 59:21 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: 2020 electorate rejected extreme ideology, signaled desire for bipartisan cooperation
“They sort of surgically removed Donald Trump while Thwarting the radical left's dream of total control in Washington. And what the electorate seems to be saying is they want the parties now to work together instead of voting for extreme ideology.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 2:02 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Trump's media network will fail and shut down within 24 months
“Not only is he not going to be A kingmaker. He will not be able to get the backing for this network. It'll be Breitbart light, and it'll be shut down within 24 months.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 1:00:58 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump's legal path requires overturning three or four states simultaneously
“Gore only had to overturn one state, which was Florida, whereas Trump has to now contest and overturn three or four states simultaneously.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 2:51 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 11, 2020 positive
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump's post-election legal challenges will fail and Biden will win
“I think that they're unlikely to prevail. Very, very unlikely. I think Joe Biden will be the next president.”
David Sacks Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 2:28 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 25, 2020 positive
Opinion
Chamath: SEC Chairman Jay Clayton was one of Trump's best appointees
“I actually think one of the best Trump appointees has been Jay Clayton. And I actually think Jay Clayton has done an incredibly good job.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 25, 2020 ▶ 40:39 E13: SPACsgiving Special! Vaccine news, innovation vs regulation, fixing higher ed, challenge trials
Dec 4, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump faces no federal legal risk, only New York trouble
“And so I don't think Trump has anything to worry about federally. I think the problem is is New York.”
David Sacks Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 54:33 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Joe Biden will leave Donald Trump alone post-presidency
“And I don't think it'll matter, because I think Biden will leave him alone, and it will not help his biggest risk.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 1:01:02 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 4, 2020 negative
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump's election challenges will cost Republicans the Georgia Senate runoffs
“Well, it's not working, and it looks like it's gonna cost Republicans to the Senate, which is something that I think he won't come back from.”
David Sacks Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 49:37 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Dec 18, 2020 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Biden's smartest 2020 move was staying quiet and letting Trump self-destruct
“Smartest political move of 20 20 was Joe Biden staying quiet, hanging out in his bunker, and letting Trump do his own damage.”
David Friedberg Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 57:16 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Dec 18, 2020 negative
What-if
Sacks: Trump might still be president if he endorsed masks earlier
“If he had just gotten on board with mass, it would have been a very easy thing to do. Politically, personally that could have made the margin of difference. He might still be president if he had gotten on board with mass about three months earlier.”
David Sacks Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 1:01:38 E15: “The Besties” All-In’s inaugural award show covering the best, worst & most memorable of 2020
Jan 8, 2021 bearish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: SDNY, state, and federal prosecutors will aggressively pursue Trump
“Even if we don't find a way to basically put Trump in jail for this, I can 100% guarantee you, I will bet a million bucks That now the Southern District of New York gloves off. Every single state that can go after this guy, gloves off. And to the extent that J…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 27:15 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks says the Republican Party is ready to be done with Trump
“Look, I think after Georgia, The Republican Party was, already blamed Trump for that, and now after the storming of the Capitol, they're ready to be done with him.”
David Sacks Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 36:58 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks says Trump is entirely responsible for the Capitol attack
“Yes. I mean, clearly. 100%. Yes, because he is the one who put forth this theory that the election was stolen and was constantly repeating it for the last two months”
David Sacks Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 20:38 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts prosecuting Trump to sever Republican ties will backfire
“This idea that you need to prosecute Trump to end his, somehow end his relation with the Republican Party, I think it will just backfire.”
David Sacks Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 37:08 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Donald Trump's actions reduced his earnings by $2 billion
“He impacted his earnings by negative two billion dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 1:20:04 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Donald Trump did not come close to succeeding in a coup
“If Trump's goal was a coup, you know, I think it's a strong word, but if it, like it totally failed, I mean, he didn't come close to succeeding in a coup.”
David Sacks Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 1:19:43 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Mueller investigation found no proof of Russian collusion
“No, there was no proof of collusion. There was no proof of collusion. That's what Mueller. No, that's what Mueller, he spent two years investigating it and found no collusion.”
David Sacks Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 33:40 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Core Trump supporters live in 10 economically irrelevant states
“And those twenty million people are You know, sad to say concentrated in about 10 states that don't functionally matter economically or otherwise.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 28:50 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath says Trump, Hawley, and Cruz are culpable for Capitol riot
“I feel like the culpability has to go all the way back to Trump, to Hawley, to Cruz. These guys are the, those are the real scumbags in all of this.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 15:29 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 8, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Donald Trump cost Republicans the Georgia Senate runoff elections
“The reason why the Republicans lost Georgia is, frankly, Trump, I mean, Trump cost them Georgia.”
David Sacks Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 50:06 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump and key allies are solely responsible for Jan 6
“And at the end of the day, there was, in my opinion, one singular person to blame, Donald Trump, and then a handful of people who were his accomplices. Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Rudy Giuliani.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:14:37 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Banning Trump is just the beginning of expanding Big Tech censorship
“But we have now handed this enormous power to this big tech cartel, and it's not gonna end here. This is not the end, it's the beginning.”
David Sacks Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 59:11 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Arbitrary tech platform bans are as dangerous as the Capitol attack
“I know that you may think banning him from Twitter is so much lower than this attack on the capital, and I'm telling you it's not, because the slippery slope of event, event number one is so obvious. The prosecution of that is so obvious. The law is so complet…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:15:22 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Trump acts like a mob boss inciting followers without culpability
“Is like Tony Soprano or any other mob boss who knows how to incite people to do dangerous things without having the culpability himself.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 13:19 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath calls Donald Trump 'categorically a piece of shit'
“After storming the capital, It is very clear, 100% categorically, this guy is just a complete piece of shit, and so now the people that stand with him are extremely isolated,”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 11:51 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 negative
What-if
Chamath: Social platforms should have temporarily paused Trump's account instead of banning
“This is exactly why the best solution would have been a temporary pause on these accounts to let the dust settle.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:04:24 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021
Opinion
Sacks: Trump could legally issue a blanket pardon to Capitol protesters
“I do think that Trump probably, I mean, this would be a very interesting court case, but I do think he could issue a blanket pardon to everyone on the mall that day.”
David Sacks Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:32:31 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Trump's businesses will be devastated by bans and cancelled partnerships
“This is close to a hundred million followers. It's a billion dollars in value. He just had the PGA say, they'll never you do a Trump golf course again. So the realm of the real world ramifications for Trump are he's, his businesses are going to be devastated. …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 28:21 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 negative
What-if
Chamath: Trump would have been jailed if Big Tech hadn't banned him
“The odds that Donald Trump would have gone to jail and been prosecuted, was basically, in my opinion, a fucking stone cold lock. And then now after this happened, There's a bunch of those people who are going to basically like him and ha, and now they're not g…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 51:48 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Donald Trump will go to jail
“Yes.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 13:47 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Capitol riots marked an ignominious end to Trump's political career
“What Trump did was absolutely outrageous, and I think it brought him To an ignominious end in American politics, he will pay for it in the history books, if not in a court of law.”
David Sacks Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 27:03 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Big Tech deplatforming Trump is history's biggest power grab
“We've had this sweeping appropriation of power by, you know, half a dozen oligarchs who now have the right. To determine what we see and read and people are cheering because they hate Trump so much. They can't see that the biggest power grab in history has hap…”
David Sacks Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 33:00 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis: Trump, Giuliani, and Trump Jr. will face civil and criminal charges
“They're gonna face some amount of civil and criminal charges, I believe.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 42:20 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 23, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump share an intellectual inability to adapt
“And like, look, we saw the intellectual incapability of Trump. Because we all said this guy could not adapt. Okay. And so we are now seeing the intellectual incapability of Gavin Newsom. And I just think they're part of the same lot. They're just kind of, you …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:17:02 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Real chance Senate convicts Donald Trump in impeachment trial
“And I think there's a real chance now that that this impeachment goes through and he gets convicted.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 15:08 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Unlikely enough Republicans vote to convict Trump and fracture party
“I'm surprised, I, I'd be surprised at the end of the day if enough Republicans went along with this to fracture the party.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 17:27 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: A Trump third party causes Republicans to lose every election
“Yeah, I mean, the Republicans would basically lose every election from now until Trump is no longer, you know, a force in American politics.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 17:03 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump created a bipartisan consensus realigning US views on China
“He created a total realignment on our views around China. I think it's now a bipartisan consensus that, you know, we should not keep feeding China and making, you know, keep feeding that the Chinese tiger and turning into a dragon.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 22:26 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Trump forming third party will push Democrats further left
“If Trump does actually, if they do actually kick Trump out of the party, and he does set up a fringe party, you will likely see the Democrats move further left, creating a much more kind of conflicting story for some of the centrists than what they're telling …”
David Friedberg Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 16:12 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Feb 3, 2021 positive
What-if
Friedberg: Career public servants heroically preserved democracy during Trump's presidency
“But if not for that deep state, we may have found ourselves in a lot of very ugly situations over the last four years that there really were layers and layers of career public servants that did incredible and incredibly heroic things to preserve democracy, to …”
David Friedberg Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 29:50 E20: Robinhood wrap up, Insiders vs. Outsiders, California's failing report card & how to fix it
Feb 6, 2021
Insight
Sacks: Opposition to Donald Trump is the main unifying force for Democrats
“You could argue that, that Biden or that Trump is the one unifying, the opposition to Trump is the one unifying force in the Democratic coalition. So the more Trump is out there, the more it bonds the Democratic coalition together.”
David Sacks Feb 6, 2021 ▶ 6:57 E21: Media misalignment, subjects controlling narratives & more with bestie guestie Draymond Green
May 31, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Media suppressed lab leak theory to avoid helping Trump politically
“They're not supposed to distort the truth or push forward a false narrative because of the political consequences, and they didn't want to be seen as helping Trump in any way, and that's really what their motivation was.”
David Sacks May 31, 2021 ▶ 10:34 E34: Wuhan lab leak theory, India's traceability law, Coinbase fact check, Big Tech takes Hollywood
May 31, 2021 negative
What-if
Chamath: Without Trump, US could have investigated COVID-19 origins effectively
“And if anybody but Donald Trump was the president of the United States in that moment, we probably could have had a chance of getting to the bottom of it when it counted.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2021 ▶ 18:09 E34: Wuhan lab leak theory, India's traceability law, Coinbase fact check, Big Tech takes Hollywood
Jul 3, 2021 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Democratic prosecution will make Trump look like a victim and backfire
“These democratic pit bull prosecutors, they are going to make Trump look like the victim here. This will rebound, I think, in a negative way.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:02:16 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jul 3, 2021
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: Donald Trump and Joe Biden will both be one-term presidents
“Both of these two guys are one term presidents. I think that is abundantly clear.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:05:41 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jul 3, 2021 neutral
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg will not flip on Donald Trump
“It does look like persecution rather than prosecution, and what they're trying to do is they're going after this guy, Wesselheim, to squeeze him to try and roll over on Trump. Well, good luck with that. That's about as likely To happen as Putin releasing the p…”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 59:00 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Sep 14, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: News media abandoned objectivity to oppose Donald Trump
“It's been a thing for a long time, and now it came to a head, I would say, during the Trump administration, because the press, I think, in going after Trump gave up something important, which is they gave up their objectivity. I mean, they flatly would, I mean…”
David Sacks Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 50:50 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Oct 23, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Biden may accomplish less in two years than Trump did
“We may be facing a situation and I'd love to get your guys' reaction where Donald Trump in his first two years of his presidency may actually have gotten more done than Biden will get done in his first two years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 23, 2021 ▶ 58:59 E52: Trump's SPAC, peak venture liquidity, tech as an economic ladder, Dems overplaying their hand
Oct 23, 2021 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts neither Biden nor Trump will run for president in 2024
“Zero and zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 23, 2021 ▶ 32:48 E52: Trump's SPAC, peak venture liquidity, tech as an economic ladder, Dems overplaying their hand
Oct 23, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: 50% chance either Biden or Trump is on 2024 ballot
“Do I think Biden or Trump could be on the ballot? I think it's 50 50 for both of them.”
David Sacks Oct 23, 2021 ▶ 33:23 E52: Trump's SPAC, peak venture liquidity, tech as an economic ladder, Dems overplaying their hand
Dec 4, 2021 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Neither Trump nor Biden wants high-skilled immigrant talent in the US
“That was one of the huge failings of the Trump presidency and now going into Biden, who doesn't seem to care about immigration either. Both of these people is huge fails. Both parties do not want to bring intelligent people here.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 4, 2021 ▶ 1:01:57 E57: Understanding Omicron, tech stocks plummet, VC's great resignation, Jack Dorsey's departure
Dec 17, 2021
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Donald Trump's equity stake in his media SPAC is worth nearly $20B
“Trump's SPAC, his shares that he's gonna be receiving are worth close to twenty billion.”
David Friedberg Dec 17, 2021 ▶ 1:03:43 E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move
Dec 29, 2021 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Jason Calacanis predicts Joe Biden loses midterms and Donald Trump bows out
“I think Biden is going to lose the midterms. And I think Trump is going to get destroyed with this January six thing and bow out and not run again.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 29, 2021 ▶ 12:10 E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Dec 29, 2021
Assertion Supported
Sacks asserts more U.S. COVID deaths occurred under Biden than Trump
“More Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden than Donald Trump.”
David Sacks Dec 29, 2021 ▶ 43:50 E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Jan 15, 2022 negative
Opinion
Calacanis asserts President Joe Biden is cognitively declining quickly
“It feels like he's in cognitive. The cognitive decline is, you know, I voted for the guy. Anything to get Trump out of office. I thought that was an existential risk, but man, he is cognitively declining quickly.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 11:12 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
Feb 5, 2022 positive
Opinion
Flexport CEO: Biden is better equipped than Trump for port deals
“And as far as union negotiations, Biden's probably pretty as equipped as any president's ever been to negotiate with a union and get them to play nice and not screw up his reelection with a strike. He's known as a union friendly president and go sit down and d…”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 21:14 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Apr 1, 2022 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Shutting borders was Trump's worst policy approach
“This was Trump's worst. Yeah, worst approach. He was best approach, clearly not starting wars, worst approach, shutting the borders down for some populous reason when we actually need people in the country.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 27:36 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 9, 2022 positive
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: Trump will likely be allowed back on Twitter after three years
“I think all roads will probably lead to a conclusion that after three years, it's probably okay to let this guy back and be able to tweet.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 58:51 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
May 7, 2022
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2062
Goldstein: Trump's Supreme Court appointments will span four decades
“The lead time effect of one presidency, of the Trump presidency, for example, now will span, you know, four decades.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 54:09 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
May 26, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tim Urban: Republican concern over national debt vanished under Donald Trump's tax package
“The classic example, the debt was the worst thing in the world during Obama's presidency, and then Trump comes in office, starts doing up these tax packages that are adding to it, and suddenly it's no problem.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 11:51 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
May 28, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Greenwald: Donald Trump saved MSNBC and The New York Times from bankruptcy
“Back in 2015, most of these news organizations were on the brink of collapse. Every MSNBC host was on the verge of being fired, you know, a couple of months away from being fired because nobody was watching. The New York Times had severe financial difficulty. …”
Glenn Greenwald May 28, 2022 ▶ 13:59 #AIS: Glenn Greenwald & Matt Taibbi discuss the new political divide, moderated by David Sacks
May 28, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Greenwald: Over 10 million Americans voted for Obama twice, then Trump
“There are literally millions of voters in excess of ten million, depending on how you count, but definitely in excess of ten million. Voters who twice voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 12, and then in 2016 voted for Donald Trump.”
Glenn Greenwald May 28, 2022 ▶ 22:42 #AIS: Glenn Greenwald & Matt Taibbi discuss the new political divide, moderated by David Sacks
Jul 22, 2022 negative
Disclosure
Chamath: Political donations were focused on defeating Donald Trump
“My capital was focused on one thing, which is I thought that President Trump was not the right person to lead this country. And I thought very clearly that the right Democrat could do a much, much better job.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 28:27 E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
Jul 29, 2022 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Donald Trump will lock up the 2024 GOP nomination if he runs
“If Trump wins the nomination, which I think he will, how are you going to be able to, when we're on the show a year from now and Trump has the nomination, Or, you know, 18 months from now, whenever it is, that he locks it up, and he will lock it up if he runs.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 29, 2022 ▶ 1:23:29 E89: GDP growth negative in Q2, $SHOP layoffs, Alzheimer's fraud, Ginkgo acquires Zymergen & more
Jul 29, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Americans do not want a Biden vs. Trump 2024 election
“Listen, the election that America does not want in 24 is Biden versus Trump.”
David Sacks Jul 29, 2022 ▶ 1:24:18 E89: GDP growth negative in Q2, $SHOP layoffs, Alzheimer's fraud, Ginkgo acquires Zymergen & more
Aug 13, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump will be very hard to beat as 2024 Republican nominee
“I think he's gonna be very, very hard to beat as the nominee in twenty-twenty-four, unless the FBI comes up with ironclad evidence To show that he did something significantly wrong.”
David Sacks Aug 13, 2022 ▶ 1:00:20 E91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
Aug 20, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: FBI unit raiding Mar-a-Lago is same unit that investigated Trump in 2016
“The group, the unit within the FBI that conducted the raid on Mar-a-Lago is the same group that conducted The investigation into Trump back in 2016 that lied to the FISA court that had its members, its leaders, Peter Strzok, were fired for basically wrongdoing…”
David Sacks Aug 20, 2022 ▶ 1:32:33 E92: Adam Neumann's second act, a16z's $350M bet, housing policy, Inflation Reduction Act & more
Sep 10, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Donald Trump was right about German reliance on Russian gas
“And in hindsight, and I'm saying this as a Democrat, he was right about the German reliance on Russian gas and the European reliance on gas.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 23:19 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Oct 1, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Yellen rejected Trump's proposal for 100-year US Treasury bonds
“When rates were like near zero, and we had the opportunity to refinance the U.S. Government debt using long-term rates, basically long-term bonds, and actually it was Trump who, you know, crazy Trump who suggested let's basically shift the debt to a hundred ye…”
David Sacks Oct 1, 2022 ▶ 33:22 E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more
Oct 29, 2022 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Donald Trump should be reinstated on Twitter
“Do I think that Trump should be allowed back? Yeah, I do.”
David Sacks Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 22:13 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Nov 12, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Republicans will lose 2022 Georgia runoff if Trump antics continue
“I think we're going to lose the Georgia runoff again if Trump continues with these antics.”
David Sacks Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 16:48 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Nov 19, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: Any Democratic nominee will crush Trump in 2024 election
“Because if it is Trump, whoever the Democratic candidate is, I don't think it really matters, will crush Trump.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 16:25 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Association with Donald Trump was political poison in 2022
“If you were anywhere near this guy, you were gonna lose.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 18:08 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump might not run in 2024 if DeSantis stays dominant
“I think that if he continues to pull this well within the Republican Party, I think Trump might not run again, because Trump definitely does not want to risk being a loser in the Republican primary.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 7:48 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Jan 6, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump's influence in the GOP will continue to wane in 2023
“The trend that I am going to suggest will be to your great disappointment, J Cal, which is Trump's influence in the GOP continues to wane.”
David Sacks Jan 6, 2023 ▶ 1:16:26 E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
Jan 13, 2023 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts Garland will drop Trump document prosecution
“I think Merrick Garland now is going to have to drop the prosecution against Trump for the stolen documents, or at least that part of what they're investigating him for.”
David Sacks Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 1:17:55 E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
Jan 20, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks ranks Glenn Youngkin as third most prominent Republican presidential contender
“The main alternative to Trump in the Republican Party is DeSantis, and then I'd say the number three in the Republican Party after Trump and DeSantis is Glenn Youngkin right now.”
David Sacks Jan 20, 2023 ▶ 10:57 E112: Is Davos a grift? Plus: globalist mishaps, debt ceilings, TikTok's endgame & more
Jan 20, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump and DeSantis will attack Youngkin over lack of experience
“I think that you'll see Trump and DeSantis attack Yunkin more viciously in a presidential primary than they attack Haley on that dimension of you have no experience and it'll be hard for him to back it up.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 20, 2023 ▶ 11:50 E112: Is Davos a grift? Plus: globalist mishaps, debt ceilings, TikTok's endgame & more
Feb 24, 2023 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Trump was the only modern U.S. president avoiding new wars
“He was really the only president, I think, in modern history, right? Saxy Pooh, that hasn't gotten us embroiled in a new war?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:12:01 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: A war-induced recession could be Trump's silver bullet to win
“If this war spirals out of control, either, you know, it turns into a even bigger conflict that draws us in, or it turns into a big recession, because I don't think we've seen the last of the supply shocks from this war. If we get a recession that Trump can, I…”
David Sacks Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:13:48 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023 neutral
What-if
Chamath: Trump would have blocked NATO expansion, preventing Putin's invasion
“So I think he would have shut the door so ferociously on Ukraine and NATO, and anybody that crossed that line, he would have tarred and feathered publicly. And I think the end result would have been that Putin could have found an off ramp well before he invade…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:12:29 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Apr 7, 2023 negative
Disclosure
Sacks opposes Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination
“I don't want Trump to be the nominee. I support a different candidate”
David Sacks Apr 7, 2023 ▶ 15:22 E123: Trump indictment, de-dollarization, should VCs back Chinese AI? RIP Bob Lee
May 5, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: RFK Jr. might be a stronger anti-Biden candidate than Trump
“And that's partially why I think maybe he has a shot at being the anti-Biden Alternative, more so perhaps in this go around than Trump is.”
David Friedberg May 5, 2023 ▶ 1:50:42 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 12, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Sacks argues Biden and Trump can only beat each other
“Look, I, like I said, I think the only candidate that Biden could beat is Trump and Biden's probably the only sitting president that Trump can beat.”
David Sacks May 12, 2023 ▶ 1:06:25 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 12, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks argues US elite policies directly caused the rise of Donald Trump
“Our elites don't see any causation between the way they ran the country and the election of Donald Trump. The fact that we hauled out our manufacturing in the Rust Belt by throwing open our markets to China, exporting our jobs to China, the way that we squande…”
David Sacks May 12, 2023 ▶ 47:26 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Ramaswamy: Trump documents indictment never mentions Presidential Records Act
“A 49 page indictment, read it twice, that does not once mention the Presidential Records Act, the most relevant statute that talks about what the basis is for a president to keep documents or not”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:03:53 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Ramaswamy: Trump did reprehensible things Ramaswamy would not have done
“Did he do things that I think are. Reprehensible that I wouldn't have done? Yeah, I think so. I mean, as they exist. Absolutely.”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:01:01 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ramaswamy: Trump's speech does not meet Supreme Court incitement test
“When he tells people to peacefully make their way to the Capitol, that does not meet any Supreme Court test for what constitutes inciting violence in this country.”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:02:05 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Trump's lasting impact is shifting the GOP away from neoconservatism
“Trump's lasting impact, I think is going to be on the Republican party. I mean, he moved the Republican party from an open borders, completely free trade. Sort of party. War mongering. War mongering, knee jerk militarism, neocon to being anti-war wanting to ha…”
David Sacks Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:43:00 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Ramaswamy pledges to pardon Trump for current and future J6 indictments
“That's why I've come out and been very vocal about the fact that I would pardon Trump of each of the two indictments that have already been brought. And if the J six indictment is brought against him, I would do the same thing.”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 43:59 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Chamath: Trump triggered a right-wing wave across Western nations
“And I think that what Trump also did, which is really interesting, is that it cascaded a wave of self-reflection in a lot of other Western countries. So Italy's more right as a result. The UK went right. Spain looks like it's about to tip right.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:43:43 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Ramaswamy: Criminalizing bad judgments during elections sets an awful precedent
“I would have made very different judgments than he did, but I think criminalizing bad judgments, especially when done so against political opponents in the midst of a presidential election, is an awful judgment. For a US president and the Department of Justice…”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:00:34 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Ramaswamy: Trump prosecutions are an establishment immune response
“I think it's a collective anaphylactic immune response. To an antigen that challenged the system. I think that's really what it is.”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:00:11 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Ramaswamy: 30% of Americans lose ability to think independently over Trump
“Well, I think that, I think it's just the reality is people lose their ability to process information. People lose the ability to think independently. It's like a demonic possession that happens in this country of about, as best I can tell, about 30% of the co…”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 55:55 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 21, 2023 positive
What-if
Ramaswamy: Trump would have won in 2020 without laptop story suppression
“The sense in which the election was stolen was the Hunter Biden laptop story and the systematic suppression of information. I think that there is no doubt. That is no doubt. I think that the evidence strongly suggests that Trump would have been elected and not…”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 58:57 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Courts will prove Trump broke law and attempted cover-up in documents case
“No, I think Trump broke the law. I think it'll be proven that he broke the law. I think it'll be proven in the documents case that he also tried to cover it up, but that's just my opinion.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:21:13 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: DOJ looks to have Trump 'dead to rights' in classified documents case
“In addition to that, the DOJ prosecutors also accused Trump of ordering employees to delete security videos and the classified documents case, the coverup, of course, being worse than the crime. Looks like they got him dead to rights on that one as well.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:10:01 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Sacks: Prosecutors cannot prove Trump knowingly lied about 2020 election
“The one thing I believe about Trump is that he really does believe the election was stolen. And I think you will never be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he is knowingly lying about that. And as a result of this, you can never prove this case.”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:15:57 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Trump's 2020 election indictment feels like prosecutors have him 'dead to rights'
“The indictment feels like it's got him dead to rights.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:09:50 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 positive
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:25:17 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Trump will attempt to overturn the government again if given the chance
“Guy has no morality, and he would have overturned the government if he had the chance. And he will do it again.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:18:57 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Trump classified documents case has sounder legal footing than Jan 6
“I do think the document's case Is on a sounder legal footing than the January six case. It doesn't involve as many novel legal theories.”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:11:29 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump likely to win GOP nomination due to prosecution backlash
“And part of the reason why I think Trump likely will be the nominee is because they are creating a backlash in the GOP where people basically think that he's being unfairly prosecuted and persecuted.”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:19:31 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Indicting Trump will make the U.S. more polarized and hyper-partisan
“It's going to make this country more polarized and hyper-partisan, and it's not going to help us move past this era of our politics”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:27:17 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Trump's actions following the 2020 presidential election were 'indefensible'
“Let me state right away that I think that what Trump did in the wake of the 2020 election was indefensible.”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:12:39 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 18, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Trump's actions were wrong but not organized crime
“I said what he did was wrong. I just don't think it was organized crime. It wasn't a RICO indictment.”
David Sacks Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 1:23:17 E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO
Aug 18, 2023 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Donald Trump will drop out within 6 to 12 months
“I believe that you're going to see Chris Christie and Vivek surge. It's going to be a three horse race with DeSantis. And I think Trump's going to be out of the race in the next six to 12 months.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 1:14:43 E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO
Aug 18, 2023
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Prosecutions will send Donald Trump to prison or the White House
“They're either gonna send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House.”
David Sacks Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 1:19:42 E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO
Aug 26, 2023
Prediction Held up
Friedberg predicts Trump might skip all primary debates and win
“I don't know if he's going to show up. I don't know why he would, if he's up. I mean, it would be, it would just be such a Trump move to just not show up to any of these debates and just like get elected.”
David Friedberg Aug 26, 2023 ▶ 1:34:01 E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more
Aug 26, 2023 positive
Opinion
Sacks: DeSantis handled the pandemic better than Trump and all governors
“He did the best job of all the governors during COVID. I think he did a better job than Trump did during COVID.”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2023 ▶ 1:20:47 E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more
Aug 26, 2023 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Donald Trump won the GOP debate by skipping it
“I do think Trump effectively won the debate night because you had all these guys going at each other and then you had Trump playing The Trump card. I'm not even gonna show up because I don't have to.”
David Friedberg Aug 26, 2023 ▶ 1:06:33 E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more
Aug 26, 2023
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts DeSantis, Vivek, and Scott or Haley as final primary contenders
“I think it'll be DeSantis, Vivek, and it'll be either Tim Scott or Nikki Haley.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 26, 2023 ▶ 1:33:46 E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more
Aug 26, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Mike Pence made no important decisions as Vice President
“The only reason why Pence got to warm his ass on a chair in the situation room is because Donald Trump picked him to be his VP, but he wasn't responsible for making any important decisions. He was basically clock in time as vice president.”
David Sacks Aug 26, 2023 ▶ 1:17:21 E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more
Sep 1, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Top three GOP candidates all oppose Biden's Ukraine policy
“The top three candidates all have expressed significant either misgivings or opposition to our involvement in Ukraine. Trump, Vivek, and DeSantis, with varying degrees of strength, have basically all opposed Biden's policy, and they are the leading candidates …”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 20:15 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 8, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Sacks: Would certainly support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over Donald Trump
“I would certainly take Kennedy over Trump.”
David Sacks Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 2:03:20 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: DOJ cannot prove beyond reasonable doubt Trump knew claims were false
“And Jack Smith's case depends on knowing the inner workings of Trump's mind. This like fraud on the American people idea that he not only made up this stolen election narrative, but he knew it was false, which I don't see how they're ever going to prove beyond…”
David Sacks Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:28:49 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Opinion
Christie: Trump retained classified documents to show off, not sell them
“He didn't do it to sell the documents. He didn't do them to give them to some foreign power. He did them to show off.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:41:57 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Opinion
Christie: Donald Trump does not actually believe the 2020 election was stolen
“I believe, given what I know, that Donald Trump does not believe that the election was stolen. That's what I believe from knowing him for 22 years and from being with him in much of the pre-election period and him expressing his very genuine concerns about the…”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:31:17 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
What-if
Christie: Trump would have willingly accepted overturning the 2020 election
“I don't think he would have any, he would have had any problem with the election being overturned. And I think if it was, he would have been more than happy to have his rear end sleeping in the white house tonight.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:34:42 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Neither Biden nor Trump will be on the 2024 ballot
“I don't know that Biden makes it to the starting line, nor do I think Trump makes it to the starting line.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 2:04:30 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
What-if
Christie: Trump wouldn't face prosecution if he returned documents when requested
“If he had turned over the documents he illegally had at any point when he was being requested to from February of 20, 21 through to when the search occurred, there would be no prosecution.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:38:52 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Opinion
Christie: Trump is running for president to get retribution against enemies
“No, I think he wants retribution from the seat of power for everybody who thinks did him wrong.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:34:10 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Opinion
Christie: Trump is the only president since Bush 41 not humbled by office
“Every president going back to Bush, 41, every one of them, regardless of my disagreements with them on policy were matured and humbled by the office, except for him. Well, so the office made him worse. It made him a worse person.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:35:07 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 positive
Opinion
Christie: Donald Trump was a better 2016 choice than Hillary Clinton
“So I defaulted into Trump because I thought he was a better choice than Hillary Clinton. And by the way, still do think he was a better choice than Hillary Clinton.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 16:44 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Christie: Trump reserved a dedicated plane seat for document boxes in 2016
“He, I used to campaign with him. He would have a box of documents. Now back then it was 2016. It was a box of documents from Trump Tower. No one could touch them. No one could look at them. He'd go through them a little bit, but they, he literally had a seat f…”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:39:32 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Christie: Endorsed Trump in 2016 to stop Hillary Clinton
“I endorsed him because I was convinced he was going to be the Republican nominee for president. And I didn't want Hillary Clinton to be the president.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 15:55 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 neutral
What-if
Christie: I would not have brought the NY or Georgia Trump indictments
“I would have indicted both federal cases. I would not have indicted the New York case or the Atlanta case as to Donald Trump.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:17:56 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Opinion
Christie: Sending Donald Trump to prison would not make sense
“I don't think that it makes any sense for Donald Trump to go to jail, and it's not just because he's Donald Trump. It has more to do, quite frankly, with the fact that he'd probably be 79 years old Before he'd be ready to go to jail.”
Chris Christie Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:20:05 In conversation with Chris Christie
Sep 29, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: TED hosted zero talks explaining why people voted for Trump post-2016
“And what disturbed me the most was that in the three years after he was elected, every TED conference had plenty of subjects, plenty of talks, and plenty of conversations about why society is falling apart, why Donald Trump is a key root cause of that, why so …”
David Friedberg Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 10:49 E147: TED goes woke, Canada's Nazi blunder, AI adds vision, plus: who owns OpenAI?
Oct 7, 2023 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Mayorkas border wall construction vindicates Donald Trump's approach
“Look, regardless of what you think about Trump, this Mayorkas revelation completely and utterly vindicates his approach to wanting to build a wall.”
David Sacks Oct 7, 2023 ▶ 35:30 E148: McCarthy ousted, border chaos, Cruise's robotaxi "accident" & more
Oct 27, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Georgia prosecutors are flipping lower-level figures to target Rudy Giuliani
“I think what's likely happening is that they're flipping these lower level figures in order to flip the next higher level, which would be Giuliani and John Eastman. Because I don't think these people have anything on Trump. So they're gonna try and You know, u…”
David Sacks Oct 27, 2023 ▶ 1:40:19 E151: WW3 risk, War with Iran?, 4.9% GDP, startup failures growing, new Speaker & more
Nov 11, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Kushner: Iranian oil exports fell from 2.6M to 100k daily barrels under Trump
“Under Obama, when he left, they were selling about 2.6 million barrels of oil a day. Under Trump, when he left office, they were selling a 100,000 barrels of oil a day.”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 57:51 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Nov 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kushner: Did not accept salary for Trump administration roles
“Again, I wasn't accepting money for any of these jobs, so it wasn't doing it for financial gain.”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 11:00 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Nov 11, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Kushner: Illegal immigration wasn't a top-five issue when Trump launched
“At that point in time, I remember seeing polls that, Illegal immigration was not like a top five issue when he started the campaign by, you know, the middle to end of the campaign, people were really seeing the craziness that was happening at the southern bord…”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 9:35 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Nov 11, 2023 positive
Insight
Kushner: Trump shifted polling to his views rather than moderating
“What I saw with politicians is a lot of politicians We'll take polls and then moderate their perspectives. This is somebody who without pollsters and without any political experience really put forward a lot of points of view and keep in mind in a Republican p…”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 9:08 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Nov 17, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Phillips predicts Biden is the only Democrat who will lose to Trump
“And I have to say, I think it's fair to say too he's probably the only Democrat who could and will lose to Donald Trump in 2024.”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 17:25 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Nov 17, 2023 positive
What-if
Phillips: Biden was the only Democrat who could beat Trump in 2020
“I think he was the only man that could have defeated Donald Trump in 2020.”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 17:20 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Nov 17, 2023 negative
Prediction Partly held up
Phillips: Biden will likely match Trump's $7 trillion deficit addition
“That's why Trump added seven trillion dollars to the deficit. And that's why Biden will probably end, you know, add about that much as well.”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 58:07 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Dec 1, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Sacks: Trump is the indispensable figure preventing GOP from reverting to Bush Republicanism
“I think that Trump is still the indispensable figure in the Republican party, because if you take him away, they're going to revert right back to where they were. They're going to go right back to the factory settings on Republicans, which is Bush Republicanis…”
David Sacks Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:02:22 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 1, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Tucker Carlson: 2022 FBI raid was key to Donald Trump's primary surge
“And so I think that's the key to his surge. I really do think that.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:05:21 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Opinion
Tucker Carlson: Donald Trump's prosecution is a political prosecution
“That's a political prosecution.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:05:12 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump threatened political retribution but never actually carried it out
“Trump was all talk in this respect. He didn't actually do it.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 41:24 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Dec 23, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump winning GOP nomination and presidency is now a foregone conclusion
“I think that they've basically made his winning the Republican nomination a foregone conclusion, and he is the overwhelming favorite to win the presidency after this.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 1:32:51 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Dec 29, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: RFK Jr.'s candidacy hurts Joe Biden more than Donald Trump
“It hurts Biden the most.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 19:00 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Dec 29, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Trump will easily win the 2024 Republican nomination
“I think he is going to run away with the Republican nomination, and barring some catastrophic meltdown, has a better chance to get into the White House than before this Colorado case.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 5:00 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Dec 29, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Trump and Biden doubled US annual deficit spending over Obama
“In eight years, Obama added eight Trillion. So it was one trillion a year. These new guys getting close to two trillion per year. So they doubled the velocity of spending.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 1:03:54 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Jan 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jason Calacanis predicts a dark horse candidate could beat Trump and Biden
“I think we're going to actually see some dark horse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody Wanted.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 9:26 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 13, 2024
Assertion Supported
Chamath: US energy independence stems from policies under Obama and Trump
“And a lot of that developed under two presidents, Obama and Trump, and both of them deserve a lot of credit because we have a capability now. To be self-sufficient and we are a net exporter because of the work that happened during that time.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 29:30 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Feb 23, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Gemini refused simple queries about political legal cases
“I just asked it a couple of times to just to list the legal cases against Trump, the legal cases against Hunter Biden, the legal cases against president Biden, and it will not just list them. It just punts on that. It's really fascinating. Then chat GPT is lik…”
Jason Calacanis Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 1:15:49 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Apr 5, 2024 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: US Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel will probably be stopped
“So, for example, like the big US steel merger with Nippon steel that was announced. Biden has one set of issues, but I suspect, you know, if Donald Trump were to get elected, his issues will be more about further hollowing out middle America. And so that deal …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 45:34 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
May 31, 2024 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Democrats will not replace Joe Biden following Trump's conviction
“If you want to make a switcheroo and get a different candidate than Joe Biden, that's not going to happen now because Democrats in the media think that this is their salvation.”
David Sacks May 31, 2024 ▶ 1:36:33 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
May 31, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Undecided voters will more likely sympathize with Trump after conviction
“Anyone who's sitting in the middle as an independent or an undecided, I think it is much more likely that they are going to have sympathy for Donald Trump coming out of this, not admonishment.”
David Friedberg May 31, 2024 ▶ 1:24:31 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
May 31, 2024 negative
Opinion
Classified documents and election interference cases are legitimate threats to Trump
“I do think the documents cases, that one is a pretty legitimate one. With obstruction. And I do think the election interference, those are the two he should be really worried about, because if he is found guilty on those are legit.”
Jason Calacanis May 31, 2024 ▶ 1:31:22 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
May 31, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath has donated to RFK Jr., Democrats, and will fund Trump
“I've donated to Bobby Kennedy, I've donated to the Democrats massively, and I'll donate to Donald Trump. And if there's an opportunity to talk to President Biden and really understand where he's at, I donate to him as well.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2024 ▶ 8:55 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
May 31, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
DOJ under Garland and Cyrus Vance passed on prosecuting Trump
“Both Merrick Garland's DOJ and former Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance, they looked at this case, they looked at these charges, and they passed on bringing this case.”
David Sacks May 31, 2024 ▶ 1:21:24 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
May 31, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Sacks and Chamath are hosting a fundraising event for Donald Trump
“We're hosting an event for president Trump... Yeah, we're hosting an event for the once, once and future president.”
David Sacks May 31, 2024 ▶ 3:06 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
May 31, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Trump's Manhattan conviction will probably be overturned after the election
“So my guess is that at the end of the day, this case is going to get tossed on appeal, but that's probably going to happen after the election, after November fifth”
David Sacks May 31, 2024 ▶ 1:22:55 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
May 31, 2024 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Trump's conviction won't be reversed, but penalty will be minor
“I think he's going to get a speeding ticket. I don't think the case is going to reverse. I think there's going to be some sort of a pardon now that this is a state kind of situation. So it wouldn't be Biden who would pardon it. It would be the governor.”
Jason Calacanis May 31, 2024 ▶ 1:30:58 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Jun 7, 2024
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Democrats will replace Joe Biden with Gavin Newsom after first debate
“This is why I think Biden's getting hot swapped this month. You heard it here first. He's got, no, Gavin is going to be running for president. It's going to be Trump and Gavin. They are hot-swapping Biden after this first debate. Biden is going to get demolish…”
Jason Calacanis Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 28:25 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Jun 7, 2024 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Donald Trump will publicly support electric vehicles within 30 days
“I bet you next week or maybe in 30 days, I'm making a prediction here. You bank the prediction. In 30 days, Trump comes out magically in support of EVs.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 31:16 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Jun 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Ten extremely high-profile people will endorse Donald Trump within 60 days
“And by the way, I'd say in the next 30 to 60 days, you're gonna see 10 incredibly high-profile people come out in support of Trump if Biden isn't swapped out. And when I say high-profile, I have the inside line on this. Extremely high-profile people, not just …”
Jason Calacanis Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 32:10 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Jun 20, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Trump expects Joe Biden to be a worthy debater in upcoming debate
“I assume he's going to be somebody that will be a worthy debater. Yeah, I would say, I think, I don't want to underestimate him.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 49:21 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: Trump's willingness to directly engage foreign leaders is a superpower
“I've always felt you should talk to everybody all the time. You know, that, that's not my issue with Trump. You know, it's never been my issue with him. I think that's a superpower.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 1:07:52 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024
What-if
Trump: Putin would never have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president
“This would have never happened if I were president. It would have never, Putin would have never done it.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 21:37 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024
What-if
Trump claims October 7 attack on Israel would never have happened under him
“That attack would have never happened in a million years.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 26:11 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Donald Trump predicts war with China is unlikely and not inevitable
“I think it's not inevitable. I think it's unlikely.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 31:29 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Trump promises automatic green cards for graduates of US colleges
“What I want to do and what I will do is you graduate from a college. I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma, a green card. To be able to stay in this country, and that includes junior colleges too.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 44:42 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Trump guarantees he will not deploy American troops to Ukraine
“I would guarantee it.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 20:58 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Opinion
Trump believes CIA was likely behind requests to withhold JFK files
“Well, this wasn't CIA that asked me, but I think CIA was probably behind it. But they didn't, they would have preferred that I not release the rest of it.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 47:14 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Trump states he would not support a national abortion ban
“No, I wouldn't support a national ban. No, I would not.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 31:07 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Opinion
Trump: Losing US dollar reserve status is equivalent to losing a war
“If we ever lose that, that's the equivalent of losing a war. That would be an unbelievable. That would really make us third world.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 10:00 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Winklevoss twins donating $1M each in Bitcoin to Trump
“I heard the Winklevoss brothers are actually announcing That they're donating a million dollars each in Bitcoin to you tomorrow.”
David Sacks Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 1:09 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 positive
Prediction Held up
Trump promises to immediately release remaining JFK assassination files
“People, more than anything else, they want the JFK files. We're gonna release that immediately.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 48:00 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 25, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump called him in November 2023 to pitch interview
“In fact, I think of all of us, he was, he called me last November. That's how this whole thing started, if you remember.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 25, 2024 ▶ 6:17 500K Subscriber Livestream! | All-In Podcast
Jun 25, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump called to thank hosts for All-In Podcast interview
“The president called to say that he enjoyed the experience and to thank us.”
David Sacks Jun 25, 2024 ▶ 5:34 500K Subscriber Livestream! | All-In Podcast
Jul 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Special Counsel Jack Smith should resign following Supreme Court rulings
“When you combine that judgment with this judgment, I think Jack Smith should just resign. It's pretty clear that Supreme Court has kicked the legs out from under his case.”
David Sacks Jul 4, 2024 ▶ 1:17:48 Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Jul 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: The New Republic ran a cover mashing up Trump and Hitler
“Look at the cover of the New Republic. They literally turned Donald Trump's face Into the face of mashup of him and Adolf Hitler.”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 20:18 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Trump administration cabinet would feature mainly 30- and 40-somethings
“If Donald Trump were to win, what you're going to see is a very youthful cabinet Of a lot of thirty-somethings and forty-somethings,”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 48:53 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 negative
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Lina Khan will not lead the FTC in a second Trump administration
“I don't think that Lena Khan is going to be running that agency in a second Trump administration”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 1:11:13 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024
Disclosure
Sacks says he was one of hundreds giving Trump VP feedback
“I was probably one of a thousand people, or at least hundreds of people who offer my opinion.”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 1:08 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Biden said days before shooting to put Trump in bullseye
“However, Biden himself, days before the shooting, said that it was time to put Trump in the bullseye.”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 17:38 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 positive
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Donald Trump is likely to become 47th US President
“It is five days after an assassination attempt on the former president of the United States and the likely 47th president of the United States, obviously President Trump.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 1:43 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Secret Service had snipers on a roof more sloped than the shooter's
“They did have snipers on another roof that was more sloped.”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 24:36 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Vance selection guarantees MAGA platform continues for years
“It was a legacy pick because it means that this America first MAGA message Is gonna continue into the future, many years into the future.”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 50:56 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Trump effectively secured the 2024 election after the assassination attempt
“I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was that's it. It's over. Trump's won.”
David Friedberg Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 6:37 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts a second Trump term will boost mid-market tech M&A
“I think we'll see under Trump a lot more mid-market M&A.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 1:12:19 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Reid Hoffman told Peter Thiel he wished Trump was a martyr
“Just days before the shooting, Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman had an exchange at Allen and company that was publicly reported. In which Peter said that Reed had turned Trump into a martyr by funding lawfare, and Reed responded, I wish I had turned him into an ac…”
David Sacks Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 16:49 Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
Jul 26, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Neoconservatism is losing out to populism in the Republican Party
“I would already say that Fox News has a market position problem, which is that Ruber is very much a neocon and neoconservatism is on the way out in the Republican party in favor of a more populist conservatism that you see with Trump or now his running mate JD…”
David Sacks Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 44:56 Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Jul 26, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Kamala Harris has more political upside than Joe Biden
“The polling shows that Trump is still ahead in most of the swing states, but look, Harris has more upside than Biden does because she can actually campaign.”
David Sacks Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 55:35 Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Aug 2, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Nate Silver's model gives Trump 56.9% Electoral College chance
“Harris currently has a 42.5% probability of winning the Electoral College. Trump 56.9%. Kennedy coming in at zero percent. On the popular vote, Harris has a 57.1% probability of winning the popular vote. 42.9% probability for Trump.”
David Friedberg Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 1:36 Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Aug 30, 2024 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: DOJ memo concluded Trump did not meet legal bar for January 6 incitement
“In the wake of January six, Merrick Garland's Justice Department did an analysis of whether Trump could be prosecuted for incitement, whether he incited that mob, and the legal memo came back, and they said, no, we don't have a case here. It does not meet the …”
David Sacks Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:15:11 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Trump's tariffs and Harris' price caps are both bad policy
“Trump's tariff policy, which is also inflationary, almost equivalent to the price gouging you know, food price caps. I think that they're both inflationary and they're both bad policy.”
David Friedberg Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:07:18 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 negative
Assertion Contradicted
RFK Jr.: EU Commissioner Thierry Breton ordered Elon Musk not to interview Trump
“Two weeks before that, you had this crazy European commissioner, Thierry Breton, saying that he ordering, ordering Elon Musk to not interview Donald Trump, a former president of the United States, the nominee of a, of one of the two major political parties”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:36:48 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump campaign contacted RFK Jr. regarding VP shortly after shooting
“President Trump, you know, reached out to me through this guy, Kelly Maynes, who's a food advocate, say food advocate, about three hours after the shoot, after the shooting in Butler, I got a call from him And he asked me if I was still interested in the, spec…”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:22:46 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 positive
Disclosure
RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard are co-chairing Trump's transition team
“There is no, I, you know, there is no deal in terms of me getting a particular post. Oh, there's just an understanding that there would be some kind of co-governance, and the Trump people have already demonstrated their good faith I inviting me to be on the tr…”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:38:17 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
RFK Jr. is removing his name from 11 battleground state ballots
“I haven't actually terminated my campaign. I suspended it. We've taken ourselves or we're trying to Take ourselves off the ballot in the, in about 11 states, so we'll remain on the ballot in 39 states”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:19:40 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sachs: Donald Trump is on policy the moderate candidate in the Republican Party
“Counterintuitive, but I think he is the moderate within the Republican Party. He's a moderate on abortion. I know, Jake, how you're still bitter about that extreme court case. However, he's been very, very clear that he will not support national abortion ban. …”
David Sacks Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:05:43 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Aug 30, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Reid Hoffman funded E. Jean Carroll's civil lawsuit against Donald Trump
“What I funded was an ability to have, you know, kind of a woman who doesn't have power, who's being threatened by a rich man with a lot of money and power to try to silence her, to have her day in court where 12 everyday Americans, right, can come to a judgmen…”
Reid Hoffman Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 1:10:34 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sep 10, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Vance: Media fabricated claim that Trump called white supremacists fine people
“Donald Trump never called white supremacists very fine people after Charlottesville, a total fabrication of the American media”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 6:11 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Vance: Joint Chiefs disobeyed Trump on Syria troop redeployments
“The Joint Chiefs of Staff Didn't obey the president of the United States on troop redeployments in Syria, which actually happened during Trump's administration.”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 16:45 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Vance: Worker wage growth outpaced corporate profits and government under Trump
“For pretty much my entire life, the wages of workers were stagnant, corporate profits were going up, and the size of government was going up. And there was a four-year period where the wages of workers outpaced the size of government and corporate profits. It'…”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 6:45 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Vance: Wall Street shifted from 3-to-1 Republican to 9-to-1 Democrat
“I believe that in 2012, Wall Street, which I think Wall Street fundamentally has been the main beneficiary of globalization, of a lot of the policies that I pushed back against and criticized over the last 30 years, Wall Street went three to one for Romney ove…”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 22:01 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Vance: GOP establishment opposes Trump over foreign policy, not January 6
“Fundamentally the reason the old guard of the Republican Party hates Donald Trump, it's not because of January the sixth, twenty-twenty-one, whatever your views on it, it's because Donald Trump doesn't think that we should start stupid wars in foreign countrie…”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 10:43 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 12, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Megyn Kelly predicts Donald Trump will never serve a day in jail
“It would be immediately appealed, and I think Trump on appeal will win. There are so many holes in that case, so I don't think Trump will ever do one single day in jail.”
Megyn Kelly Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 26:46 Megyn Kelly | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 13, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Thiel confirms he will not donate money in the 2024 election
“I am still Very strongly pro-Trump, pro pro-JD. I've decided not to donate any money politically, but I'm supporting them in every other way every other way possible.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 1:35 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
Sep 17, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Dave Portnoy says he will vote for Donald Trump in the presidential election
“I'll vote for Trump in the presidency because I want the country to get along.”
Dave Portnoy Sep 17, 2024 ▶ 26:38 Dave Portnoy: How He Bought Back Barstool for $1 | The All-In Interview
Sep 20, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Teamsters rank-and-file polling shifted 34 points toward Trump over Harris
“Biden, when he was still in the race, was plus eight among the Teamsters rank and file, and now that Harris is the candidate, Trump has upped something like plus 26 with the Teamsters.”
David Sacks Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 1:13:48 Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Sep 20, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: ABC News coverage was 100% positive for Harris, 93% negative for Trump
“And if you look at like, for example, ABC news, 100% of the coverage by ABC news is positive. Whereas something like 93% of their coverage on Trump is negative.”
David Sacks Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 1:16:15 Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Oct 3, 2024 positive
Opinion
Cuban calls Donald Trump one of the greatest salespeople and motivators ever
“He's one of the greatest salespeople ever. He's one of the greatest, you know motivators in terms of crowd motivation ever.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 28:44 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 positive
What-if
Cuban: I would vote Republican against Biden if the candidate were non-MAGA
“If it wasn't Donald Trump running, it was a non-MAGA candidate, particularly if it was Joe Biden still, I'd vote Republican.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 1:36 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cuban: Trump refuses to email directly to avoid leaving paper trails
“He refuses to send an email because he doesn't want any proof of anything he's done, right?”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 13:40 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Cuban ties 2022 inflation peak directly to Trump's 2020 oil deal
“And you know what matches up perfectly? What matches up perfectly is that 9.1% in 2022 and the day that that agreement ended. Where MBS and Russia limited production, that agreement ended it like this.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 27:40 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024
Assertion Supported
Trump sent Cuban a 'you suck' letter after TV show canceled
“And then when I got canceled, he sent me that letter basically saying, you suck.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 9:54 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Trump makes no effort to learn policy details or give nuanced responses
“He doesn't make any effort to learn anything, and I think that carries on to this day, because you can't look at things he says and say, that's really an in-depth response, or that's a nuanced response”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 16:42 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump was first US president in 20 years without new wars
“He was like the first president in 20 years not to start a new war.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 22:21 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Donald Trump's speech and actions reflect cognitive decline
“I'd be willing to bet that he's also had cognitive decline. Everything he says and does is reflective of that.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 43:59 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cuban: Every inch of Donald Trump's office was covered with pictures of himself
“Every inch of his office is covered with pictures of him. Every single inch of the office.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 8:42 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Cuban: Trump chose weapon sales to Saudi Arabia over ending Yemen war
“And we had the opportunity to stop selling weapons, but He looked, the best I could tell, he looked at it as a sales opportunity to sell to MBS all these weapons, and he thought that was a positive. So, a lot of people died, and we're still in there today, so …”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 23:06 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Cuban: More people died during riots under Trump than under Biden
“We had more people die during riots during his term than Biden by a long shot”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 19:58 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 positive
Opinion
Cuban: Donald Trump has charisma and is one of the world's best schmoozers
“He's a blast. He's fun to talk to, you know, he's got charisma, he's got personality. He's easy to like. I mean, you know, he's used to schmoozing. He's a, he's one of the world's best schmoozers.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 6:02 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 positive
Opinion
Cuban: Removing daily business uncertainty was Biden-Harris's top achievement
“There just wasn't this uncertainty like every single day that every business woke up with Trump. Just removing that. Was the biggest positive of all.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 55:37 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Cuban: Once Trump was nominated, I just wanted whoever could beat him
“Once Donald Trump was the candidate, I wanted the best person to beat Donald Trump. That's what I cared about.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 48:51 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Tim Walz rejected Donald Trump's offer to deploy National Guard
“He wanted to send in the National Guard to Minnesota. It was actually Waltz who rejected the National Guard.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 21:29 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Donald Trump is not a Republican, the GOP is his family business
“Donald Trump is not a Republican. Republicans are Donald Trump. You know, the Republican Party is now the family business for, Donald Trump”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 1:53 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Donald Trump follows Roy Cohn's playbook exactly
“If you read books about Roy Cohn, everything Roy Cohn says to do, tracing back to the McCarthy hearings in 54, everything Roy Cohn says to do, that is exactly what Donald Trump does.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 28:57 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 11, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Pollsters show Trump winning Electoral College and leading swing states
“If you look at pretty much now all the main pollsters, you look at Tony Fabrizio, you look at RealClearPolitics, they're now showing that Trump is winning the Electoral College right now. He is up in almost every swing state, including, I think, Michigan, whic…”
David Sacks Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 1:16:38 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oct 18, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump is the only candidate who could win in a landslide
“Right now, the only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump. Otherwise it's gonna be very close.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 1:16:50 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oct 25, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Friedberg predicts US deficit will increase under both Trump and Harris
“Regardless of who gets elected here, they've both kind of shown that the deficit will increase, not decrease under their presidency.”
David Friedberg Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 49:07 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Oct 25, 2024 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump did not incite much on January 6th
“In that moment, I thought what happened was really terrible. And then since then, I've got to know the person and I don't think that he actually incited much of anything. That's my belief.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 1:05:56 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Oct 25, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: French trader bet $45M on Donald Trump on Polymarket
“It was reported this morning that a French trader has bet forty-five million dollars on Trump on Polymarket, that he is the whale.”
David Friedberg Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 57:03 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Nov 6, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Trump Jr.: Donald Trump saved $1B on the Air Force One contract
“It's two seven 47, and it was like a six billion dollar contract. I understand it's fitted a little bit more, but he's like, it's gotta have a four in front of it. And they're like, okay. I mean, he saved a billion dollars like that.”
Donald Trump Jr. Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 22:07 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Nov 6, 2024 bullish
What-if
Gingrich: Resources in CA, IL, NY would guarantee Trump popular vote
“If we were to actually put real resources into those three states, Trump would be virtually guaranteed to win the popular vote.”
Newt Gingrich Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 1:27:31 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Nov 6, 2024 negative
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bannon predicts Judge Merchan will sentence Donald Trump to prison
“Mershon is no doubt to me Mershon is going to give him a prison sentence.”
Steve Bannon Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 1:36:39 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Nov 6, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Koon: Sharp bettor placed low eight-figure wager on Trump before election
“One guy who just never seems to be wrong who's been in my circle for a long time, made an enormous wager on Trump three or four days ago. I think low eight, maybe.”
Jason Koon Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 1:07:31 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Nov 6, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Bannon rules out joining Trump's second administration, staying at War Room
“I have no interest in going to the White House, and quite frankly, I'm much, better for President Trump to support him and his policies being on the outside and continue to do war room.”
Steve Bannon Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 1:43:49 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Chamath would serve the Trump administration in a part-time advisory capacity
“If asked to serve, Especially in a part-time capacity where you don't have to divest everything you own, and you can actually just go and call bull and actually just make sure good decisions get made. It would be an honor to serve in that capacity.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:01:53 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Sacks: Cannot take full-time government role due to Craft key-person status
“No, I mean, I've already said before, I'm the key man at craft. I can't do that. But, you know, look, I would do something part time, meaning if it wasn't a full time job, if I didn't have to leave my current job, if it was just serving on some Advisory commit…”
David Sacks Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:01:17 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Donald Trump is the transformational political figure, not Obama
“If you look back now over the last 10 years, it's clear that he's the transformational figure In American politics. It's not Barack Obama with all due respect. It's Trump.”
David Sacks Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 38:54 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Abortion will cease to be a salient federal issue in US politics
“I think we're at the tail end of this being a salient issue in American politics. I think Trump has ended it as a federal issue, and it's now going state by state, and in most of those states, the pro-choice forces are winning. I think this issue is over, and …”
David Sacks Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:39:07 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024
What-if
Calacanis: A Dean Phillips and Josh Shapiro ticket would have easily beaten Trump
“If you had picked Dean Phillips and Shapiro, I think they would have beat Trump very easily or because remember Trump was phenomenally unpopular.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 39:38 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump is a good human being
“He, he's a good human being.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:41:30 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Palihapitiya: US was closest to Middle East peace during Trump administration
“We have never been closer to substantial and sustained peace in the Middle East in any era of government under any president than we were when Jared Kushner on behalf of Donald Trump negotiated those agreements.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 46:58 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Legacy media will claim Trump lied if deportations fall short of 15 million
“And you know what's going to happen? The legacy media is going to say, well, he lied because he didn't deport the other 14.2 million.”
David Sacks Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:10:24 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Sacks and Chamath played an influential role in Trump's win
“I think you guys had a very influential role in moving people for the effort you made and the outcome.”
David Friedberg Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:41:22 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Trump pledged on All-In to staple green cards to college diplomas
“Remember he said on the show, he's going to staple the green card to it.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 49:24 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Media colluded with Democrats to lie about Trump on Charlottesville
“There are so many very powerful examples of how the media colluded with the Democratic Party to fundamentally lie about things that actually happened when it relates to Donald Trump. One of the most simple and powerful was the lie about Charlottesville.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 43:38 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Border wall and deporting 500k to one million criminals equals success
“If he closes the border, builds the wall, seals it so it's no longer a problem, and deports 500,000 to a million hardcore criminals out of this country, I'm going to say that was a massive success.”
David Sacks Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:10:08 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Mainstream media colluded with Democrats to vilify Donald Trump
“I think that the mainstream media has been working hand in hand with the Democratic Party to propagate and move forward an agenda that tried to vilify Donald Trump.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 18:07 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts RFK Jr. will be confirmed for a cabinet post
“I think it might be harder to get Bobby Kennedy confirmed for a major cabinet post with 51, with 53, 54. I think we get there.”
David Sacks Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 52:15 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Chamath: Trump is the only politician who called without asking for money
“The Democrats only come to me to ask me for money. The only politician that has ever called me just to have a conversation, just to say thank you and be kind, the only one has been Donald Trump.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 19:20 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
Dec 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts JD Vance will lead the post-Trump Republican Party
“My political surprise is J.D. Vance. I don't think if this works out properly there will be a Republican party the way that you normally knew it. I think it is a MAGA party. And I think that JD Vance has the potential to become the standard bearer past Trump, …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 31:22 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Dec 25, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Sacks and Chamath raised $13 million for Trump at San Francisco fundraiser
“13, and then 13, well, we got another million on top of it, so we ended up raising thirteen million that night”
David Sacks Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 28:03 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Dec 25, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Friedberg says the Trump assassination attempt immediately sealed the 2024 election
“When it happened, I was sitting outside having beer with a bunch of people. I remember there was, like, 12 of us, and we looked around the table and everyone was like, he just won the election. That was it. It was so, like, in that moment, I knew. It felt like…”
David Friedberg Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 1:09:38 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Dec 25, 2024 positive
Opinion
Calacanis names Trump's post-assassination attempt fist pump the moment of 2024
“I thought the moment of the year for me was not the assassination attempt at Trump, obviously, but his reaction to it. When he got up and he pumped his fist and he said, fight, fight, fight, I think you got an idea of his character and that he wasn't going to …”
Jason Calacanis Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 1:08:04 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts Trump will negotiate a deal detrimental to Russia and Ukraine
“I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's going to get a very, very a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 10:26 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts Trump and Xi will reach a trade deal isolating Putin
“I think Trump and Xi both want a deal. I think there's a deal to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold, as I referenced.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:21:04 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Zuckerberg's free speech pivot is strictly to appease Donald Trump
“I think he is terrified of Trump and having his company broken up, and he's doing this strictly to appease Trump.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:18:43 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Calacanis: I flipped to supporting Trump because of his executive appointments
“This is why I've changed my position on rooting for Trump now. I was a never Trumper. Everybody knows that. But he put executives around him this time around, and I am rooting for those executives to do what's right for the American people and solve big proble…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 50:04 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
David Friedberg: Trump's statements matter for vector and magnitude, not literal meaning
“It's not the literal statement that matters as much as kind of the vector and the magnitude of the vector. He's clearly trying to Begin negotiating for some change.”
David Friedberg Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:39:32 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 18, 2025 positive
Prediction Held up
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts TikTok will be acquired extremely cheaply under Donald Trump
“And I think that we'll probably find one. And I think that it probably happens under the Trump presidency and whoever gets their hands on it, gets their hands on an incredible asset. That they will be able to buy extremely cheaply, because there is no way that…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 1:12:08 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 18, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mark Pincus: Gavin Newsom's anti-Trump posture will fail if Trump proves popular
“The more that FDR style Trump and people get popular support, it's going to become a more and more isolating, lonely place in two years to still be Like, you know, California, Gavin, everyone's saying, don't worry, we're gonna protect you against these people.…”
Mark Pincus Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 22:27 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 18, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Mark Pincus publicly endorsed Donald Trump two days before the 2024 election
“Eventually I came out two days before the election publicly for Trump.”
Mark Pincus Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 9:58 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 18, 2025 positive
Prediction Partly held up
David Friedberg predicts a US-China grand deal within Trump's first six months
“This kind of also leads to what I think will be The grand deal with China, which I think will happen in the first six months of the Trump administration.”
David Friedberg Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 1:17:28 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 18, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Mark Pincus publicly endorsed Donald Trump two days before the 2024 election
“Eventually I came out two days before the election Publicly for Trump.”
Mark Pincus Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 3:05 From Skeptic to Supporter: How This Billionaire Got ‘Red-Pilled’ by Trump
Jan 19, 2025 positive
Prediction Held up
Cruz predicts the Senate will confirm every single Trump cabinet nominee
“I think right now every Trump cabinet nominee gets confirmed.”
Senator Ted Cruz Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 43:34 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 19, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump successfully executed a hostile takeover of the Republican Party
“And I think what the great thing that Donald Trump did was he basically conducted a hostile takeover of the Republican Party.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 34:59 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 20, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Emmer: Trump won 77 million votes vs. 75 million for House Republicans
“Donald Trump has a mandate. He got seventy-seven million votes. We got a little less than seventy-five million.”
Tom Emmer Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 6:34 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Opinion
Emmer: Donald Trump is a once in 150-year leader
“I think he's a one in 150 year leader.”
Tom Emmer Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 9:48 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Khanna plans to work with Trump and Waltz to keep TikTok operational
“I will work with him and Mike Waltz, I know very well. We were co-chairs of the India caucus together in Congress. I will work with him in a bipartisan way to figure out how do we have this app operational.”
Ro Khanna Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:26:15 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Khanna: Democrats must spend equal time understanding Trump voters as criticizing Trump
“The Democrats need to spend as much time understanding why many Americans voted for Donald Trump as we do criticizing Donald Trump”
Ro Khanna Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:10:01 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump is a generational retail politician
“I mean, I think he is a generational retail politician.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 9:44 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025
Opinion
Emmer: Democratic nomination process is top-down while Republican process is bottom-up
“Watching from the outside, that's a top-down process. On the Republican side, that's a bottom-up process, and, ah, Donald Trump is the best example of it.”
Tom Emmer Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 6:11 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Prediction Held up
Swalwell: Trump will allow TikTok to operate in US
“I mean, I think Donald Trump is going to allow TikTok.”
Eric Swalwell Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 49:47 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emmer: Trump was elected on fixing the economy, sealing borders, and global peace
“Donald Trump was elected for three reasons. One to fix our economic woes. The inflation that's killed people. Get energy moving again. Seal the southern border and create peace and stability around the globe.”
Tom Emmer Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 14:36 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Emmer: Trump administration promised not to touch Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid
“We've said we're not going to touch Social Security. Medicare and Medicaid. That was the president who said that.”
Tom Emmer Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 15:18 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Tulsi Gabbard canceled All-In Summit appearance to prep Trump for debate
“So, Tulsi, we didn't talk about this, but she was supposed to be at the All In Summit, and very last minute canceled because she was, she had to actually, I guess we can talk about this now, she had to leave town to go work on prep with the president for the d…”
David Friedberg Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:43:26 All-In Inauguration Day Livestream with the Besties from Washington, DC!
Jan 20, 2025 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Calacanis: Trump will spend as much as Biden did
“I guarantee you Trump's gonna spend a similar amount.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 2:32:17 All-In Inauguration Day Livestream with the Besties from Washington, DC!
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Opinion
Akash Singh: Donald Trump is socially perhaps the smartest person he's met
“He's socially maybe the smartest human being I've ever been around.”
Akash Singh Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 29:21 All-In Inauguration Day Livestream with the Besties from Washington, DC!
Jan 25, 2025
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: 22 state attorneys general sued over birthright citizenship order
“22 state attorney generals have already sued over this executive order, so it might be a performative one.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 33:05 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Jan 25, 2025
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Trump set record with 26 day-one executive orders
“President Trump smashed the record for day one executive orders, 26 in all, beating the prior record of nine by Uncle Joe Biden.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 31:37 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Feb 7, 2025
Assertion Supported
Chamath details Trump tax framework including eliminating carried interest tax break
“President Trump just unveiled his framework for his tax plan. No tax on tips. No tax on senior social security. No tax on overtime pay. Renew the middle class tax cuts. Adjust the SALT cap. So again, very pro, as I said, pro-labor, pro-populist. Eliminate all …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 1:04:29 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Feb 7, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Federal spending on Politico surged to $8M under Biden
“During Trump one spend on political was averaging around a 1.3 million a year, but it suddenly ballooned up to eight million a year under Biden.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 15:25 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Mar 8, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lonsdale: Trump's crypto promotions are silly schemes that damage moral authority
“I was very frustrated With posts of Trump mentioning specific coins. I don't know who was trading them before. It just looks bad. Like we're fighting all this grift, reading all these things where we have the moral high ground. I agree. I don't want to give up…”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 43:30 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 8, 2025
What-if
Lonsdale: Putin would not have invaded Ukraine with Trump in office
“I don't think he would have invaded with Trump as president.”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:15:41 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
Lonsdale: Trump is using tariffs as a negotiation tactic over fentanyl
“He's using this to negotiate. So I talked to the senators and I asked him what's going on. Cause obviously I import things all over the place. I'd like to know what the hell the rules are. But he wants people to actually crack down on this stuff and save Ameri…”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 9:42 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 8, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: 60% chance Trump 2.0 is less influenced by market drops
“I'd say 60%, he's probably different than Trump one point oh, and he's probably less Influenced by the short-term rumblings about the market. And he's probably listening to Besant on this one”
David Friedberg Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:13:21 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 8, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Chamath: Trump and Elon's political honeymoon period ended this week
“I think that Trump and Elon were very much in a honeymoon period until this week. And I think there was the benefit of the doubt.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 10:28 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 15, 2025 positive
Opinion
Schulz: Donald Trump's greatest skill is listening to people
“I would say that his greatest skill is listening to what people say.”
Andrew Schulz Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 16:59 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya: Donald Trump will take wealth away from asset holders
“And I think the great thing about Trump is he is going to reset that. He is going to take a lot of wealth away from asset holders.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 33:05 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025 negative
Opinion
Andrew Schulz: The 2024 election was a rejectionist vote against Democrats
“So I think people rejected the democratic proposal. And they went with what the other alternative was, which was Trump.”
Andrew Schulz Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 16:38 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025 positive
Opinion
Schulz: JD Vance has high emotional intelligence and political ambition
“If you want to talk about like power plays, you got to watch out for JD. That guy's a, that guy's high emotional intelligence.”
Andrew Schulz Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 1:32:05 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schulz: Elon Musk will behave well in Trump's administration
“So I think he's going to behave really well because now he's in the most powerful position he will ever be in.”
Andrew Schulz Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 1:31:58 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025
Insight
Schulz: Domestic criticism undermines a leader's leverage in tariff negotiations
“It's impossible to do these negotiations with any leverage if you have the people within your own country questioning your ability to negotiate in real time.”
Andrew Schulz Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 21:01 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: Trump represents the traditional working-class Democratic Party
“Trump is the Democratic Party that we grew up with.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 34:56 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025 negative
Insight
Friedberg: Using tariff threats as a negotiating bluff becomes easily exploitable
“Once everyone knows that there's this kind of action, it's exploitable. And so this is now kind of an exploitable mode of negotiation where everyone now assumes he's just trying to negotiate, so no one actually takes him seriously.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 21:25 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 20, 2025 positive
Opinion
Lutnick: Public attacks charge Donald Trump's battery and make him stronger
“Those other people who attack him, they think they're attacking him. They're charging his battery. They're literally charging his battery. So he comes back bigger, stronger, bigger, stronger.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 3:52 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Superstitious Trump avoided transition planning with him before winning election
“The president is superstitious. He's never had one conversation with me about transition. He totally trusts me.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 30:33 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick donated $10M and raised $15M for Trump's 2020 re-election
“Now, I gave him money in 2020 re-election. Probably gave him ten million bucks. I raised him fifteen million bucks.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 14:58 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick claims Trump never speaks without staff research backing his statements
“He's never just talking. Yeah. He has people behind him who bring him his foundational, structural outcome.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 5:57 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 positive
Opinion
Lutnick: Susie Wiles is perfect because she lets Donald Trump be himself
“Susie Wiles is perfect for Donald Trump. You know why? She lets him be him. John Kelly took away his phone. So he couldn't communicate with anybody. Whereas Susie embraces who he is, helped him get elected, ran a great campaign. She's perfect for him in this r…”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 18:43 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Tariffs drove $2 trillion of committed domestic production to US
“Two trillion dollars of committed domestic production coming back because of his tariffs.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:05:32 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Trump selected cabinet members primarily for public presentation skills
“Because he picked them knowing I need you to be able to talk, to be able to present our ideas and our concepts out there.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 33:18 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Lutnick: Constitution Pipeline will cut East Coast gas prices in half
“So he's going to force the Constitution pipeline, which by the way will drop gas on the east coast of the United States of America in half.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:43:46 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Trump makes decisions by 'orchestra,' not the last person speaking
“The way President Trump works, he makes decisions by orchestra. He likes lots of views and opinions. He likes them. And anybody who says, oh, the last person who sees him gets him, that's because they don't know him at all.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 31:23 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Lutnick claims he coined 'External Revenue Service' and pitched Donald Trump
“I came up with the name. I wrote a truth. Right. And I sent it to DJT and I wrote, this is my huge idea.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:09:20 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Lutnick donated to both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016
“So I gave him money and I gave Hillary money.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 11:21 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lutnick: Linda McMahon drafted executive orders while Lutnick managed personnel
“Lyndon McMahon was my co-chair. Right? But she wrote all those EOs that he did. That was, she was responsible for, and I was responsible for personnel, but she was with me for personnel.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 32:07 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 29, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Calacanis: The Trump administration is actually a moderate Democratic administration
“I don't even consider this like a Trump administration now. I consider this a Democratic moderate administration. Everybody around Trump now is a Democrat.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 29, 2025 ▶ 52:04 The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Apr 4, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shapiro: An economic downturn will make both parties favor Lina Khan
“And that's how you get a populist uprising on the right. And what you end up with is a horseshoe theory politics where both parties are in favor of Lena Kahn. Right. Both parties are in favor of Lena Kahn.”
Ben Shapiro Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:33:41 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Shapiro: Trump does not realistically expect to deport 20 million people
“I don't think President Trump actually thinks the number is, is twenty million. I don't think anybody realistically thinks the number is twenty million.”
Ben Shapiro Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 24:30 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shapiro: Trump will carve out tariff negotiation off-ramps within weeks
“I think the most likely result of these tariffs is that within the next few weeks, the headlines are not good. President Trump starts driving trucks through the center of the tariffs. And then he starts getting wins from various parties outside that allow him …”
Ben Shapiro Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 45:19 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 11, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Summers: Markets estimate Trump's tariff policies represent a $30 trillion loss
“And what you get is a loss in the 30 trillion dollar range as the present value as estimated by markets of what's being done.”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 7:04 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025
Disclosure
Chamath: Has given significantly more money to Democrats than Donald Trump
“Just to be very clear, I give, I have given way more to the Democrats than I've given to Donald Trump.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:17:32 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Summers: Trump's populist project is a Juan Perón approach destined to fail
“I do believe that it is fundamentally not new under the sun, just new in America. That it is the Juan Perón approach, which is very familiar to students of Latin American history in particular, and that the general experience of that approach is that its leade…”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:26:40 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Sacks: Donald Trump was right in the 1980s and 1990s on trade policy
“He was not wrong. He was one of the few people and the few public figures in America who was right about this. I think most people today would say he was right about this, that throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the cons…”
David Sacks Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 55:58 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Abundance agenda will fail without disrupters like Musk or Trump
“You'll never get the abundance agenda that you want. Because it's people like Elon or Trump who get things done.”
David Sacks Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:40:21 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Pillars of globalism failed and catalyzed Trump's nationalist agenda
“I think all three pillars have been refuted, and the person who has represented the shift in this consensus to, I'd say, a new agenda of economic nationalism and geopolitical nationalism is Donald Trump, okay?”
David Sacks Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:24:11 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 negative
What-if
Summers: Targeted tariffs would not have caused a $5 trillion stock drop
“If President Trump had announced a big broadening of anti-dumping law to confront a variety of instances of what he, what the administration, after careful economic analysis, saw as inappropriate subsidy, I might or might not have thought that they were doing …”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 49:56 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Calacanis: Two-thirds of people around Trump are Clinton Democrats
“These are, I would say two out of three people around Trump, whether it's Chamath, Joe Rogan, Besant, Howard, even Trump himself are Clinton Democrats.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:31:35 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Disclosure
David Friedberg says he was previously essentially a Never-Trumper
“We were sort of like almost basically never Trumpers.”
David Friedberg Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 0:25 Inside the All-In Summit: Behind the Scenes of the World's Greatest Conference 🚀
May 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Trump reduced illegal US border crossings to zero
“I'm just saying getting the illegal crossings to zero and he's done that.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 3, 2025 ▶ 13:47 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump ended use of disparate impact for affirmative action
“He also signed an executive order ending the use of disparate impact for affirmative action.”
David Sacks May 3, 2025 ▶ 18:01 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Foreign direct investment into the US under Trump exceeds $1T
“I think it's approaching, if not, it has already exceeded a trillion dollars from corporations and organizations and individuals from around the world who have committed to bringing money into the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 3, 2025 ▶ 13:14 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 4, 2025
Disclosure
AFPI grew to $90M and prepared 300 executive orders for Trump's second term
“AFPI and then our sister C-Four, we launched America First Works, it was a ninety million dollar operation in just a couple of years, and I think, fundamentally transform the landscape. Part of it, not all, part of it was getting ready for a second America fir…”
Brooke Rollins May 4, 2025 ▶ 16:02 Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture | All-In DC
May 17, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ben Shapiro: Medicaid price controls will drive up private insurance drug costs
“And so if you do that with Medicaid, what you'll probably get is number one, a lot of these pharmaceuticals just won't be used by Medicaid. Pharma won't sell it to them. Instead, you'll have to go into the private sector, which means it's going to be more expe…”
Ben Shapiro May 17, 2025 ▶ 1:31:24 Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
May 25, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sen. Johnson: Donald Trump is not focused on reducing federal spending
“I don't think President Trump, he's doing all kinds of great things, he's not focused on reducing spending.”
Senator Ron Johnson May 25, 2025 ▶ 31:28 Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
May 25, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sen. Johnson: The MAGA movement's greatest danger is being tied to Trump
“The greatest danger of MAGA is it's really tied toward one individual.”
Senator Ron Johnson May 25, 2025 ▶ 40:43 Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
Jun 4, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Isaacman: I am right-leaning and donated to Trump to support his agenda
“In, in, in terms of donations, I, I've always been, you know, somewhat of a moderate. I actually like, I am like a right leaning. I do support, you know, the president's agenda. That's why I made as big of a donation as I did to his cause.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 52:51 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
Jun 4, 2025
Disclosure
Isaacman learned of Trump withdrawing his NASA nomination via a phone call
“I got a call Friday of last week that you know, the president has decided to go into a go in a different direction.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 49:04 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
Jun 4, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Isaacman: My largest political donation ever supported Trump's inauguration
“My single largest political donation ever was to president Trump in this you know for, to support his inauguration.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 28:32 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
Jun 13, 2025 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Trump is making a mistake on federal spending bill
“I think Trump is making a mistake with BBB. I think he should push back on it harder.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 1:27:04 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 13, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson: Engagement with Iran over two days would derail Trump presidency
“I think a protracted, meaning anything over a day or two engagement with Iran would derail the Trump agenda and the presidency. And I think it could really sink this administration.”
Tucker Carlson Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 1:31:38 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 28, 2025 bullish
Insight
Sacks: Buying market dips during media panic is effective under Trump
“Whenever the media puts these experts on to tell you that there is chaos and doom, that has proven to be an excellent time to buy the dip. So I think this is a very easy way to trade the Trump presidency.”
David Sacks Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 1:26:11 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 28, 2025 positive
Opinion
Friedberg credits Trump for using unpredictable strategy like optimal poker play
“And I will say, if I'm thinking about like, you know, game theory, optimal poker play, I gotta give credit to this president because it was completely unpredictable what was coming next.”
David Friedberg Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 20:33 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 28, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump almost single-handedly restored US status as global superpower
“So from my perspective, I think what president Trump has done is almost single-handedly bring back the United States as the Global superpower.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 14:26 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jul 4, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Trump and Musk will recognize mutual dependency and cool tensions
“And I do think that both sides have heads that are going to be cooler that will prevail here. And I do think that these two are going to recognize the importance of being codependent, if you will, in being able to progress their respective agendas.”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 31:43 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 7, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: The Trump-Musk alliance will hold and find common ground
“I think the reality is that when push comes to shove, I think that they agree on more things than they probably disagree. And I think when everybody realizes that the alternative is essentially some insane form of socialism and redistribution, I think the Alli…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 7, 2025 ▶ 5:55 "What The F Are We Doing?" David Friedberg On BBB’s Deficit Increase & Trump vs. Elon
Jul 19, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Trump's market sensitivity will dampen tariff volatility
“He clearly cares and is clearly very sensitive to market feedback. So I think that that will be a dampening mechanism on tariff volatility.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 3:49 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Stock market would drop significantly if Trump fires Fed Chair Powell
“I do think the market would go down quite a bit more if Trump did fire Powell.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 7:48 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 24, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Trump bans federal government from procuring politically biased AI technology
“And in just a moment, I will be signing an order banning the federal government from procuring AI technology that has been infused with partisan bias or ideological agendas, such as critical race theory, which is ridiculous.”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 46:52 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Jul 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Trump confirms he terminated Biden's AI executive order on day one
“That's why on day one, I very proudly terminated Joe Biden's order on woke AI effective immediately.”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 46:40 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Aug 1, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: A 100 bps rate cut would send the US economy gangbusters
“If you inject a hundred basis point cut into the economy, this thing is going to go gangbusters, and Trump is going to look like an economic genius going into twenty-twenty-six.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:06:11 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 1, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Trump term will focus on AI, crypto, immigration, tariffs
“This presidency, this term is going to be earmarked, I think, by four key initiatives, AI, crypto, immigration, and tariffs. I think that feels like what they're locking into as what's important for the next three and a half years.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 12:15 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 1, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump signed three executive orders at the All-In Summit
“The president of the United States signed three executive orders at the All In Summit that we just hosted.”
David Sacks Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 16:40 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 1, 2025 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: Vance's youth and debate willingness make him the ideal politician
“I'm in like with Trump. I'm in love with JD because he's young, he's opinionated, and he likes to mix it up.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 24:54 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 15, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Democrats opposing D.C. police takeover are falling into Trump's trap
“And I think that just politically speaking, that if Democrats keep opposing this, I think they're falling into a trap that Trump has laid for them.”
David Sacks Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 1:03:33 AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?
Aug 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Federal police takeover will reduce D.C. crime quickly
“If you want to reverse this law system, DC, and I think it's going to have an impact very, very quickly. I think it's going to work very quickly.”
David Sacks Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 54:43 AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?
Aug 21, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Schmitt: Released DNI documents show Clinton was Russia's preferred candidate
“Actually in the documents that were released by Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, was that Hillary Clinton was the preferred candidate. They had the goods on her. They had her medical records, all this stuff. So Trump was not like this pref…”
Senator Eric Schmitt Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 34:03 Senator Eric Schmitt: Exposing the Biggest Censorship Scandal in US History
Aug 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Russiagate was effectively a coup against Donald Trump
“It was effectively a coup against the president of the United States, because these were executive branch officials who owe a duty of loyalty to the elected president. Instead, they were working to subvert and undermine him based on Essentially lies and hoaxes…”
David Sacks Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 44:54 Senator Eric Schmitt: Exposing the Biggest Censorship Scandal in US History
Aug 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Trump has 50% chance of achieving Russia-Ukraine peace deal
“I think he's got a fifty-fifty chance of getting this done, and I think other people didn't even try.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 1:08:22 AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame
Aug 28, 2025 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Trump cares most about peace among major parties in Ukraine war
“And I think that of the major parties, I think president Trump cares the most about peace. I mean, I think he is pushing the hardest for there to be a peace deal.”
David Sacks Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 13:05 The Brutal Truth About Ending The Ukraine War - David Sacks
Aug 29, 2025 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Trump's pressure on the Fed is not lawfare
“Well, this isn't lawfare. This is the president pushing back on, I think, a Fed that's been overly political.”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 22:26 Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
Aug 29, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Jerome Powell will cut rates for Democrats but not for Trump
“He'll cut for Biden. He'll cut for Yellen. He'll cut for Kamala. He will not cut for Trump.”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 1:27:08 Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
Sep 5, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paul: Trump-style protectionism will make America poorer and risks economic calamity
“I think there will be many heirs and many people competing to be heirs of Donald Trump in the protectionist front. I don't think it's good for our country, and I think it will make us less wealthy, and ultimately could really lead to a calamity.”
Rand Paul Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 1:06:07 Senator Rand Paul: Tariffs, Debt, China, and a Warning for America
Sep 7, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Republicans likely won't limit executive emergency powers under Trump
“Depending on what the Supreme Court does or doesn't do, I think it is going to catalyze a legislative push, and the Republicans are likely not going to embrace it, this presidency or this term, because President Trump is in office.”
David Friedberg Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 39:28 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump reached a record 55% approval rating due to reduced crime
“He got the highest approval rating he's ever had just in the last week, and a big part of it is because of the reduction in crime in D.C. I think he got to a 55% approval on poll rating.”
David Sacks Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 44:52 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 7, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Executive emergency power debate will shape future presidencies
“I do think that the great debate that's going to happen from this presidency and will likely shape the next set of presidencies will be the right for presidents to declare emergencies to move forward their legislative agenda.”
David Friedberg Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 37:44 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 7, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: 19 of 29 White House tech dinner attendees are lifelong Democrats
“I think about 19 of them are lifelong Democrats who have switched to this party”
Jason Calacanis Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 23:20 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 9, 2025 negative
Opinion
Cuban: GOP is the Trump family business and Democrats lack leadership
“The Republican Party isn't the Republican Party anymore, it's the Trump family business, and the Democratic Party doesn't even exist anymore because, you know, they don't even know what they're doing, and there's nobody in charge, right?”
Mark Cuban Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 16:34 Tucker Carlson and Mark Cuban Debate How to Save America 🔥 | All-In Summit 2025
Sep 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carlson: Trump told him 50 million uncounted people live in US
“Trump told me directly he thought it was fifty million.”
Tucker Carlson Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 27:41 Tucker Carlson and Mark Cuban Debate How to Save America 🔥 | All-In Summit 2025
Sep 9, 2025 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Zohran Mamdani is a progressive version of Donald Trump
“Mondami is just Trump progressive, progressive version, right? You just say what people want to hear.”
Mark Cuban Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 18:55 Tucker Carlson and Mark Cuban Debate How to Save America 🔥 | All-In Summit 2025
Sep 17, 2025
Disclosure
Trump says he personally selected all Oval Office paintings from White House vaults
“I picked them all, yeah, I picked them all.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 2:20 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Trump says he added 24-karat gold to the Oval Office
“And we added a lot of 24 karat gold, and it's very expensive, and I think very beautiful.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 4:53 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Trump: White House replaced Rose Garden grass with white stone patio
“We, as you know, had grass, and you couldn't have anything, you couldn't do anything, you couldn't do press conferences, all of the things that you'd like to do, you couldn't do it, and we put beautiful stone, white stone down, and now we can have all sorts of…”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 7:31 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: Tech industry was first group brought for a Rose Garden dinner
“We're very honored for the tech industry to be the first one that you've brought to do a Rose Garden dinner.”
David Sacks Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 7:11 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump claims Joe Biden ignored White House marble maintenance
“You think it got it with Biden? I don't think so. You think he does this? Do you think he says, that marble's not looking good. We have to replace that marble. Nah, he doesn't do that.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 11:19 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump: Curators blocked two former presidents from displaying star White House painting
“I can tell you two of the presidents I know wanted it up and it never got up, but I think they liked me better.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 3:31 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Trump claims tariffs generated hundreds of billions without causing inflation
“No inflation. They said, oh, tariffs will cause inflation. They were, they've been wrong about everything, and these guys, and for the most part, they've admitted, they've said, you know, Trump was right, because we've taken in hundreds of billions of dollars …”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 17:05 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Trump allows AI datacenter builders to construct dedicated power plants
“I'm allowing the people that are building to build their own electric plants, which nobody thought would happen.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 11:48 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Trump: White House is building a new ballroom near East Room
“And as you know, ah, we're gonna be building a ballroom. For a 150 years, they wanted a ballroom at the White House. When a dignitary, a big dignitary, the head of China, the head of any country your name would come over, they would, ah, build a tent in the la…”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 6:21 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Trump predicts interest rates will come down regardless of Fed
“Rates are coming down anyway.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 16:11 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Chamath claims Trump called exact stock market bottom on Truth Social
“You called the absolute bottom. You posted on Truth Social. This is a great day. It was literally the bottom. And it's kind of straight, it's like 35%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 17:39 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Trump: Ulysses S. Grant was a great general but okay president
“That's Ulysses S. Grant, his favorite general, and I would say a great general and a okay president. He gets higher marks as a general.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 1:57 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025
What-if
Trump claims threatening 200% tariffs would have stopped semiconductor offshoring
“They would have said, no, you want to build in Taiwan, you're going to have to pay a 200% tariff. And nobody would have left.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 15:28 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 19, 2025
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Rutgers poll shows 50% of left-of-center respondents justify Trump or Musk murder
“50% of left of center said yes. 14% of right of center said yes. Even that number is shocking to me.”
David Sacks Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 18:48 Charlie Kirk Murder, Assassination Culture in America, Jimmy Kimmel Suspended, Ellison Media Empire
Sep 27, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg accuses CNN of double standard in reporting on acetaminophen risks
“When it was announced at the Trump conference yesterday, they said Trump links autism to acetaminophen used during pregnancy despite decades of evidence it's safe. And then if you read back, so this is 2017, 20 16, Acetaminophen during pregnancy may increase r…”
David Friedberg Sep 27, 2025 ▶ 38:17 H-1B Shakeup, Kimmel Apology, Autism Causes, California Hate Speech Law
Oct 2, 2025 negative
Opinion
Ro Khanna says being anti-Trump is not enough for Democrats
“I don't think just being anti-Trump is the way back for the Democratic Party.”
Ro Khanna Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 11:38 Ro Khanna Calls Out Both Parties: Immigration, Tech & Free Speech
Oct 2, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Trump pressured European regulators on Google's behalf after tech dinner
“One of the things that was mentioned was just the overwhelming pressure that the Europeans were putting on Google. I don't know if you remember this. And the day after, beyond making some calls, what he did was he put a pretty meaningful pressure campaign That…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 18:40 Ro Khanna Calls Out Both Parties: Immigration, Tech & Free Speech
Oct 2, 2025 negative
Insight
Khanna: Politicians mimicking Donald Trump are unlikely to succeed in US politics
“American politics disdains a copycat. You're probably not going to be successful just mimicking him.”
Ro Khanna Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 36:14 Ro Khanna Calls Out Both Parties: Immigration, Tech & Free Speech
Oct 10, 2025 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Crime data in 3-4 months will validate state troop deployments
“I think what will be interesting is in three or four months from now, when we see the incremental crime stats data and whether we see Wes wrap that up in a big bow and say, look what I did. And I think if you do see that, then I think what you will have seen i…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 43:16 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: D.C. residents welcomed Trump's National Guard deployment as crime dropped
“We saw this with DC, that the locals, the residents, including among the Black population, were very happy with the fact that Trump sent in the National Guard and crime has been massively reduced.”
David Sacks Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 20:22 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Trump administration insiders credit All-In Podcast for victory
“I've heard from people in and around the administration. They believe that that was a key part in their success this time.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 41:30 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: TIPP Insights poll shows Trump with net positive approval in cities
“These Tip Insights showed that Trump had a net positive rating among voters in cities, 47 to 44, and that his numbers have improved recently.”
David Sacks Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 20:07 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 18, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: A leader-level Trump-Xi deal is required to stabilize US-China relations
“I think what's most needed right now is to have a grand bargain between President Trump and President Xi, and that will then calm down the relationship. And obviously this is going to be a very competitive relationship for as far as the eye can see, because th…”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 38:18 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
Oct 23, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Manchin says Trump visited West Virginia six times and spent $25 million
“He ended up coming six times to my state and they spent an extra twenty five million trying to beat me.”
Joe Manchin Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 59:20 Joe Manchin Exposes The Chaos Inside Biden’s White House
Oct 23, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Manchin: Trump's strongman style works in the Middle East, not Western diplomacy
“He is the perfect president for the Middle East. Strong man, strong arm. He, I say what I mean what I say, and boom, boom, boom, using my military mic. That doesn't work in the western part of the world where we have diplomacy.”
Joe Manchin Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 1:01:45 Joe Manchin Exposes The Chaos Inside Biden’s White House
Oct 23, 2025 positive
Opinion
Joe Manchin: Bill Clinton and Donald Trump were the most engaging presidents
“If you tell me people that are engaging with you and talk, Bill and President Trump.”
Joe Manchin Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 24:03 Joe Manchin Exposes The Chaos Inside Biden’s White House
Oct 30, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Chamath: Feels safer under Trump presidency than under Biden presidency
“As the only immigrant right now on this podcast who immigrated here legally, I feel much safer and better under a Donald Trump presidency than I ever did under a Biden presidency.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 44:30 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
Oct 30, 2025 negative
Opinion
Pete Buttigieg: Donald Trump practices white identity politics
“Now, I would argue that Trump practices a kind of identity politics too, a sort of a white identity politics that makes people feel like they're encircled by the other, that immigrants are sort of an invasion.”
Pete Buttigieg Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 34:40 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
Oct 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Buttigieg: Republican coalition cannot coexist long-term without Donald Trump
“And I don't know that they can coexist for long if they're not held together by the awe of or fear of, you know, the personality of Donald Trump.”
Pete Buttigieg Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 39:33 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
Nov 22, 2025 neutral
What-if
Chamath: Biden administration would have leaked Epstein files if Trump was implicated
“If you had something that was incredibly salacious and accusatory of, Trump, it would have been released during the Biden administration because it would have made a lot of sense politically to try to damage his candidacy. So the fact that we haven't seen much…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 2:49 Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
Dec 13, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tucker Carlson says he gets along with Donald Trump better than ever
“So no, I get along with him literally in 25 years better than I ever have.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 2:55 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 negative
Opinion
Calacanis says Trump should avoid antitrust intervention involving the Ellison family
“If we start thinking about the influence that Ellison, the Ellison family is having on the Trump administration, whether it's quid pro quo or it's the appearance of quid pro quo, it's best for Trump to stay out of it because already we have the TikTok deal. No…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 19:31 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: President Trump will soon issue an executive order on AI
“In China, they're proposing, and Saxon President Trump, the amazing President Trump, will be doing an AI national edict soon, I believe, or an executive order.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 54:30 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sachs: Real wages fell $3,000 under Biden and rose $1,000 under Trump
“Under the Biden years, we had a 3000 dollar reduction in In real wages by American workers. That's already gone up by a thousand dollars under president Trump in the first year.”
David Sacks Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 51:08 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 22, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Bessent aims to reduce U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% by 2028
“And I've said that I would, by the time President Trump leaves office, that we would like to have something with a three in front of it, which will stabilize the deficit to GDP, which is an important number, and enable us to start paying down debt.”
Scott Bessent Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 2:45 Scott Bessent: Fixing the Fed, Tariffs for National Security, Solving Affordability in 2026
Dec 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Tony Hinchcliffe: Trump saw 20% Puerto Rican support bump in Pennsylvania
“20% Puerto Rican increase in the state of Pennsylvania.”
Tony Hinchcliffe Dec 24, 2025 ▶ 19:09 All-In x Kill Tony: A Hilarious Holiday Special
Jan 10, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: US-China standoff and Taiwan issues will be largely resolved under Trump
“I think the standoff with China is going to be largely resolved. And I think president Trump's, when he makes his visit there, I don't know if you're going to go on that one. Sax, but I think it should be included in it, obviously because of the AI race. I do …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 1:02:35 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carolla predicts Trump economic gains will deliver a conservative 2028 victory
“I think Trump's fiscal stuff is going to kick in in the new year, and I think people are going to start reaping the benefits of that, and I think if that happens, and gas is cheap, and interest rates are down, and home ownership is up, and employment is up, th…”
Adam Carolla Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 1:04:44 Adam Carolla on California’s Collapse: Fires, Failed Leadership, and Gyno-Fascism
Jan 17, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Odds of Trump acquiring Greenland are higher than 17%
“And I think the odds of him pulling this off are much greater than 17%.”
David Sacks Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 58:29 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Rogers: US sanctioned former EU official over Elon Musk enforcement threat
“We recently issued some sanctions, which we'll get into, and one of the individuals we sanctioned, ah, was a former EU official who threatened Elon Musk with enforcement action because X within the United States had said that it was going to host on a live, ah…”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 7:18 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Jan 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump banned government procurement of politically biased AI via executive order
“President Trump signed an executive order saying that the federal government would not procure politically biased AI.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 45:09 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 24, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Donald Trump attempts to resolve meeting problems immediately via phone
“You'll be in a meeting with the president in the Oval Office, and you'll tell him about a problem. His first instinct is to pick up the phone and call and fix it right then and there.”
David Sacks Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 2:42 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 31, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Trump filed 50 to 60 post-election lawsuits and lost all of them
“I think Trump filed about 50 or 60 lawsuits and lost all 50 of them.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 22:45 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Jan 31, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Calacanis: ICE enforcement tactics will cost Republicans the midterms
“And in fact, it's gonna cause him to lose the second to lose the midterms.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 35:07 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Feb 20, 2026 negative
Opinion
Tracey: Epstein narrative is Democrats' main opposition strategy against Trump
“This is like the number one oppositional Trump narrative of the second term. It's almost Russiagate redux in the outsized prominence that, that Democrats are giving it in terms of what they bring up day after day in hopes of it undercutting Trump or bedeviling…”
Michael Tracey Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 1:37:03 Epstein Deep Dive: Prince Andrew Arrested, Global Network, Mythology, Reid Hoffman Files
Feb 28, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Calacanis predicts Donald Trump will lose the midterms
“I think Trump's gonna lose the midterms, and we're gonna get to more chaos again, and it, we might as well start this reconciliation process of these two sides stopping their law for against each other and working together for the American people on the import…”
Jason Calacanis Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 1:17:19 Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
Mar 6, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: Trump did not instruct Pentagon to drop Anthropic over donations
“It's a criticism on me because it's not like Trump, President Trump dipped in and he's like, hey, Emil, by the way, those guys didn't get me any money. You can't use them anymore.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:08:16 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 6, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Emil Michael: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called Donald Trump a 'wannabe dictator'
“You called president Trump and your 5000 word essay on Friday, a wannabe dictator. You're gonna have to apologize to more people than just me.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:10:52 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 9, 2026
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Graham Allison: Trump will declare Iran conflict over before China trip
“So my Inclination, again, if we were just doing prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then, because he needs a little time to get his mind set on that.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 11:12 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026 positive
Opinion
Graham Allison: Netanyahu is a magician with impressive political agility
“And I think it's, I mean, I think Bibi is a magician. I think his single-mindedness, ah, is impressive. I think his agility in making arguments and developing arguments is impressive.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 7:30 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 18, 2026
Assertion Supported
Fetterman notes Pennsylvania identified only six 2020 voter fraud cases, all Republicans
“There was no fraud. And they, we identified, I think, believe it was six, six or seven. In fact, and now, coincidentally, they all happened to be Republicans that were voting for President Trump, and mostly they used a dead relative to try to devote that, and …”
John Fetterman Mar 18, 2026 ▶ 22:42 John Fetterman: 'I'm the Only Democrat in Congress Saying This'
Mar 23, 2026 negative
What-if
Mahan: Targeted China tariffs would have made more sense than broad inflation
“Tariffs, yes, I do believe China, this is something I think he's gotten right, has been competing unfairly with the US. I think a targeted approach to tariffs, focusing on that issue, would have made a lot more sense than the general inflation we've seen.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 1:03:42 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Apr 3, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Calacanis: Trump will fire Stephen Miller and Kash Patel
“Trump's gonna need to clear house. He's cleared out two of four. I predict he'll clear out the other two and get great leadership in there”
Jason Calacanis Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 53:27 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Shapiro: Trump tariffs raised PA coffee prices 30% and fertilizer 36%
“And as a result, here in Pennsylvania, what we're seeing is coffee prices are up 30%. Beef is up 19%. OJ orange juice is up nine percent. The fertilizers my farmers rely on here in Pennsylvania, up 36%.”
Josh Shapiro Apr 8, 2026 ▶ 29:05 Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race
Apr 8, 2026 negative
Opinion
Shapiro: House Speaker Mike Johnson acts as a rubber stamp for Trump
“You put what's his name? Johnson in is a speaker, and he's effectively a rubber stamp for anything Donald Trump wants.”
Josh Shapiro Apr 8, 2026 ▶ 39:20 Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race
Apr 8, 2026 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Shapiro predicts Trump policies will cost 500,000 Pennsylvanians their healthcare
“I've got 500,000 Pennsylvanians who are going to lose their health care. I've got a 120,000 who have already lost their health care. About another 320,000 or so were likely to lose Medicaid next year. I've got 26 rural hospitals that are likely to shutter”
Josh Shapiro Apr 8, 2026 ▶ 19:04 Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race
Apr 17, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Kalanick argues Donald Trump uses the stock market as policy weather vane
“I think this maybe is just the more simple view of things, which is Trump's weather vane is a stock market. Like we see vol is up. We see the VIX is really high, but you know what? The S and P is trading in this band. That's actually fairly tight, given the cr…”
Travis Kalanick Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 1:14:21 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
Apr 24, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump proposed behind-the-meter power generation for AI companies over a year ago
“Where he said over a year ago, before data centers even became a hot political topic, that we should let our AI companies Stand up their own power generation behind the meter.”
David Sacks Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 3:20 SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike
May 15, 2026 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: China trade deals boosting US jobs would be major Trump victory
“From an administration political perspective, it just seems like this is going to be a major coup for the president if he can walk away with a series of trade deals with China that increase job security, increase prosperity, increase income levels, increase in…”
David Friedberg May 15, 2026 ▶ 5:13 Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
Jun 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Loeb: DOJ threatened to investigate Trump if he commuted Ross Ulbricht
“On the last day of Trump's 45th term, We were certain that he was going to get out, and the Justice Department, for whatever reason, said, if you commute his sentence, we're going to go after you, to the President. So he, as I understand he withdrew the commut…”
Dan Loeb Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 29:14 Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back
Jun 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI's Greg Brockman and wife donated $25M to Trump
“If you look at OpenAI and Grok, those are the people who are largely pro-Trump including Greg Brockman and his wife, who gave twenty-five million to Trump.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 19, 2026 ▶ 56:44 World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
Jun 29, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 38%
“Donald Trump in our approval ratings now is down to. 38%.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 31:04 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
Aug 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Emanuel: Putin and Xi view Trump as a joke, not an equal
“This president punches down and kisses up. He has this fixation about Putin and Xi admiring him as an equal, and they think he's a joke. They think he is not their equal.”
Rahm Emanuel Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 36:56 Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats
Aug 24, 2026
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Nature poll found 86% of scientists backed Harris vs 6% Trump
“They polled 2000 of their readers, which are all scientists. 86% supported Kamala Harris in the election, according to the poll, and Donald Trump polled at six percent.”
David Friedberg Aug 24, 2026 ▶ 2:39 Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsios
Aug 27, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Weinstein: I sought White House science role but refused Trump loyalty pledge
“I just met with Michael Kratzios. Great. I wanted that role. I put my hat into the ring for that for that role. I didn't think I would get it because I wasn't willing to pledge sufficient loyalty to Donald Trump.”
Eric Weinstein Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 28:39 Eric Weinstein: The State of American Science, Breakthrough Coverups, and the Danger of Physics
Aug 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Nature survey found 6% of scientist readers backed Trump
“Six percent of the readers polled voted for president Trump. 85% or something, Kamala Harris.”
David Friedberg Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 28:10 Eric Weinstein: The State of American Science, Breakthrough Coverups, and the Danger of Physics
Sep 4, 2026 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Backing Machado in Venezuela would risk deploying US troops
“I'm glad that President Trump didn't put Machado in charge, because how's she going to stay in power? Like, what Guns are gonna basically protect her. You know, it takes men with guns to basically stay in power in these countries. I'm not saying that it can't …”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 1:29:07 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
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