The Ledger, every show

“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”

“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”

“I think Anthropic is worth three trillion dollars today, and it's very important.”

“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”

“Open source frontier, which today consists of, you know, Chinese models with stolen American tokens.”

“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”

“Like there is an organized CCP funded campaign. I think against data centers here in America. Like I think a lot of it gets laundered through TikTok and it's just tragic because the other thing that's happening is this is re-industrializing America.”

“What you have to compare it to is the cost of launch, and with Starship reusability, that goes to under a billion, so the economics just instantly flip.”

“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”

“They clearly tried to make a frontier model. They failed. You know, Satya said, we're gonna have our own models that are very competitive. Like, I think he said that 18 months ago. They don't have their own models that are competitive.”

“If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that Simple.”

“The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone. And I think the Anthropic S-one is kind of going to make that clear.”

“And Anthropik continues to grow really strongly and is almost certainly pumping out significant amounts of free cash flow.”

“Anthropic, if they had been as aggressive on compute as OpenAI had been, they would have run away with it.”

“And the reality is, like, given the deals that are being cut now, when a data center goes in, electricity prices actually generally go down for everyone around there because of behind the meter deals.”

“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”

“America is awesome, and we're the only vaguely successful multicultural society on planet Earth.”

“I think Nvidia can join the frontier and become one of the world's largest cloud computing companies. Much faster than people think.”

“It is starting to feel or seem like there may be a CCP funded campaign against AI and data centers in America.”

“These other ASICs. . Are not being submitted for benchmarks. They're not in the CB analysis inference max. They're not in MLperf. I think the reason they're not being submitted is they will lose.”

“All GPUs use Grok or Cerebrus for decode, and then those older GPUs, they have a useful life for 10 or 15 years, and this means that you can finance GPUs.”

“I think selling in deprecated Nvidia GPUs to China. Lowers the odds of them developing their own alternative ecosystem, which would be a lot power hungrier because you use optical, you bring in optical a lot earlier for scale up fabrics.”

“And what I just mean by that is in Anthropik, they added eleven billion dollars of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that The SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between five and 10 trillion dollars of value. And I would say argua…”

“That the Strait of Hormuz being closed is actually relatively awesome for America.”

“If Taiwan Simi did what Jensen wanted, I think NVIDIA could sell two trillion dollars of GPUs. In 20, in 26 or 27. Maybe two and a half trillion. Maybe three trillion.”

“And the disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15 year lives.”

“AI has net destroyed. Even if you count cursor cognition, the most successful AI natives, value has been, trillions of dollars of value has been destroyed by AI at the application layer.”

“I do think this is why a lot of fundamentally based value strategies have struggled for a long time, because the alpha in those strategies Was being willing to own these stocks that other people were embarrassed to own because they were so out of favor. And yo…”

“The short answer is a lot of the operational value add from a lot of these firms is wildly overstated. The wise advice is super not appreciated.”

“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”

“In space, cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite, and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get. So all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.”

“And the ROI on AI has Empirically, factually, unambiguously been positive. Like, I just always find it strange that there's any debate about this, because the largest expenditures on GPUs are public companies. They report something called audited quarterly fin…”

“All these VCs are setting up these holding companies and, you know, we're going to use AI to make traditional businesses better. And, you know, they're really smart VCs and they're great track records, but that's what private equity has been doing for 50 years…”

“Because Meta threw a lot of money at it and they failed. Jan LeCun had to leave. They had to have the famous billion dollar for AI researchers. By the way, Microsoft also failed. They did not make such an unequivocal prediction, but they hire, but they bought …”

“And then geopolitically, China thought they had the leverage. They're gonna realize, oh, whoopsie daisy, we do need the Blackwells. And unfortunately, they'll probably, for them they'll probably realize that in late 26.”

“If Blackwell comes back to China, which it seems like it probably will happen, that will also be very good because then Chinese open source will be back.”

“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world, in this world, In the next three to four years is data centers in space.”

“Taiwan Semi is not expanding capacity as fast as their customers want. And I think this is actually a pretty big, this, they're in the process of making a mistake just because, you know, you do have Intel and with these fabs, they're not as good and it's reall…”

“Patrick Helsinger, I think was also a good executive, and he put Intel on the only strategy that could result in success, and I actually think it's shameful that the Intel board fired him when they did it.”

“If Taiwan Simi opens up at the same time when, you know, data centers in space relieve all power constraints, but that's like, I don't know, five, six years away that data centers in space are a majority of deployed megawatts.”

“This is a life or death decision, and essentially everyone except Microsoft Is failing it.”

“None of the public ways you can invest in this are really good expressions of this theme are likely to succeed or have any real fundamental support.”

“I do not believe we're in an AI bubble today.”

“At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid In America was dark. Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs.”

“Larry Page apparently internally said, I'm happy to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. And I think that is the mentality for sure at Google and perhaps Meta. It's just seen as existential and you have to win.”

“It is definitionally impossible, given what we just discussed, to succeed in AI without gross margin pressure, and I do not know why they have concerns, because we have an existence proof that a software company can deal well with declining margins in Microsof…”

“In a strange way, the Chinese open source model ecosystem is a godsend to any American company that's trying to catch those four leading labs.”

“GPT-V is a smaller model. It was not designed to be better. It was designed to be more economical for OpenAI and Microsoft to run. Any reference to GPT-V and scaling loss is crazy.”