The Ledger, every show

“There's an open source ecosystem in, in China that is near neck and neck. Let's say at least still maybe kind of, you know, one to three months behind, but not a year or two years behind.”

“So if you believe in job destruction, like in any kind of very large scale way, you basically don't believe that markets adapt and you basically don't believe that some other company will emerge and say, I'm gonna just do this way better. And the way I'm going…”

“As an asterisk, it's actually why the doomers are also wrong about jobs, because this is actually going to be a very real sustaining job. That is not like a one time you implement the agent and you upgrade the system and then it kind of works forever.”

“The funniest concept that the more code we write, the less we would need engineers would be the opposite because now your systems are even more complex than before, which means that you're going to be running into even more challenges of when you need to do a …”

“There are going to be more lawyers in the next five years than we have today.”

“You know, the idea that we're in some kind of, you know, kind of race, existential race where a month or two of advantage is gonna, you know, change the total outcome of AI progress and what everybody does between us and China. I just don't agree with, I think…”

“We will.”

“I always laugh when, you know, people say, you don't need to be an engineer. Don't do computer science. I actually think like that is like still one of the most protected job categories because things are only getting more technical. Things are only going to g…”

“I think that, that there's kind of, that seems to be totally reasonable based on the trajectory that we're on. And I would bet that, that Sam has an even a far higher bar for what his definition of, you know, intellectual or whatever the term was, then even I …”

“We've talked to customers where where they have had, had colleagues that, that can't actually they can't present the actual ROI savings to their board. The actual kind of expected ROI savings to the board because the board won't believe how, how they won't bel…”

“And I think what you're seeing with scaling is we will be able to certainly accomplish our collective definition of super intelligence. With the current, ah, the current path we're on with scaling laws.”

“It's going to change the nature of the incoming class of engineers that you hire. Like they will literally not be able to code without AI assistant, assisting them.”

“I'd get rid of Navarro immediately.”

“If as of, you know, Tuesday afternoon, you know, the tariffs that have been proposed, if those roll through you know, this is going to be a total disaster.”

“The thing that lost me was when everybody was arguing that, that what we should do is decentralize all of the infrastructure of the internet. That's just literally, it just costs more to then run every internet service. And it's actually not a very good databa…”

“Now it doesn't mean that it's all startups. It's going to be Salesforce and it's going to be service. Now it's going to be Oracle. And it's gonna be box.net which is not our official brand. We, you know, we will capture collectively all of that.”

“If I'm wrong and it taps out sooner, then I think you would just have exactly what AI is good at today, plus, you know, 20% or whatever, and then fully extrapolate it out. So, so that, that to me is, that, that pays all the, for all the VC funding.”

“I just don't agree with the TAM compression because I think there's another kind of counter event that's happening that, that AI is, is really going after like services. And so that then conversely expands the TAM software where IT budgets weren't usually appl…”

“If I'm wrong and it taps out sooner than I think you would just have exactly what AI is good at today, plus, you know, 20% or whatever, and then fully extrapolate it out. So, so that, that to me is, that, that pays all the, for all the VC funding.”

“That is as much going to be an incumbent's game as a startup's game this time around.”

“There's a lot of belief that like, oh, well, well, you might have these solo companies that, you know, become multi-billion dollar companies with just one person or, you know, three people and a bunch of AI. I think that will be done, you know, just by virtue …”

“I get very confused why we are so passionate about changing the government right now. Like they're like, they're nailing it. Like why, like, why, like why pull out a Jenga piece out of nowhere and then see what changes.”

“This is like, not like particularly like hard, you know, work of, you know, like, 90% of the jobs that I see.”

“Obviously you have companies going from zero to a hundred million or five hundred million in revenue in, you know, one to two years. Like this has never happened before in software. Or kind of technology broadly.”

“And the enterprise actually right now we're like nowhere near the level of intelligence needed for the vast majority of enterprise tasks.”

“And the only kind of caveat is, like, that's going to probably take, like, 10 to 20 years. Not just because of model progress, but because of the rollout of all this.”

“Diffusion actually is, like, your biggest rate limiter, and diffusion is, like, a human, Has to get the intelligence from the model plus probably their data, and then they have to go interact with the real world and do something in the real world, and then bri…”

“I think it's going to become the number one topic in the next presidential election.”

“And this is like classic Jevons paradox, which is we lowered the cost of engineering, which means that everybody wants to do more of it, and now finally people can. And so you're gonna see this huge surplus in, in demand For engineers across the economy in ind…”

“There's this layer that's sort of needed between the model's capabilities and the ultimate customer's workflow, and that's kind of this bridge layer. And that's where effectively, you know, probably trillions of dollars of market cap will eventually emerge.”

“This amazing progress that will totally add 10 or 15 or 20 years to people's lives over the next 50 years and absolutely kind of impact preventable, you know, diseases from people.”

“I think practically in the next three to five years, we probably have to end up in an environment where models do get evaluated by the government. There is a sort of collaborative approach between the government and research and the labs. You know, the governm…”

“I think the tone is actually remarkably optimistic and excited and positive as opposed to, you know, there's a sort of, You know, typical trough of disillusionment, you know, from Gartner and the hype cycle or whatnot.”

“One, you know, coding agent could be consuming, you know, a thousand dollars of compute on a single task. So clearly like you can't lump that all into a 20 dollar per user per month fee.”

“The data center providers, the labs, et cetera, have pricing power. They don't need to lower their prices on anything. So you're not seeing the typical things that drive down the cost of compute. I'm highly optimistic that that happens over the next five to 10…”

“You're going to need, you know, new, new pieces of software. Probably there's probably a, you know, a five billion dollar startup waiting to happen just in like ERP for your AI compute.”

“I think what's going to happen is you're going to have a mosaic of models in the enterprise. I think the average enterprise will certainly be using, you know, half a dozen models in their organization.”

“The technology is getting so advanced that it makes obsolete the prior thing that you implemented, which actually means that the rollout takes longer because we have no stable, there's no stable environment to roll things out in.”

“So I think it's just going to be this sort of dual, dual model with the one nuance being probably by like you know, database queries, headless will just be a hundred times larger than the interface driven, you know, way of doing work.”

“So I think any enterprise software company in three years from now, that sort of, that, that gets through this AI transformation period, It will have a seat business model, assuming it has an end user component, and it'll have a consumption business model.”

“You will actually see, interestingly, if you're like an executive and you start to do this, you'll see lots of areas actually where you should hire more people because you're like, oh my God, this thing is spitting out, you know, incredible goldmine of value, …”

“Unless the labs build out literally the equivalent of hundreds or thousands of people for every single vertical and every single line of business, that means that there's actually a lot of opportunity in that kind of bridge area of the work.”

“So, so that, and that's going to be, there's going to be businesses that are doing that for decades. Like it's going to be an incredible opportunity for this kind of next generation set of firms, as well as existing ones that, that lean into that.”

“Where again, you were normally constrained by the number of people on these platforms, but now the headless user can be, you know, a hundred or a thousand X the scale of those human users.”

“I don't think that it's a five to 10 X gain. I do think it's a two to three X gain, maybe across the board. You are still rate limited by how quickly can you review this stuff and check on the work.”

“Maybe if you're graduating, you know, name your computer science school today, you don't go immediately to Google. You go to literally John Deere or Caterpillar or Eli Lilly, but the skills that you have are going to be just as relevant in just a different dom…”

“I'm not a hundred percent clear on that, but there is a hundred percent a role right now that there's going to be 500,000, a million jobs created for, and it's basically some kind of agent operator.”

“There's a limit to, again, the number of software you need to build that looks like an app on your phone. There's an unlimited amount of software you need to build That looks like a background system process that's connecting different data sources, automating…”