The Ledger, every show

“Is it going to be humanoids or not humanoids? I think that debate is over because humanoids can kind of learn, you know, from watching YouTube videos, and then it's easier for a human being you know, to put on a suit and show the robot how to do it.”

“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”

“I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's going to get a very, very a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine.”

“Just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them all.”

“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”

“But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're gonna have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.”

“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”

“My standard question is, can you tell me one quantitative data point in your business that's getting worse? Just one. That's my standard question, and it's at least in July and August, I haven't been able to find a single person.”

“Now, if we're being honest, you know, Anthropic is you know, in a quiet period, so maybe they've slowed down a little bit, but I do think the rest of the world has accelerated, you know, OpenAI is clearly accelerated. Open source, I think, has accelerated more…”

“If you're anthropic, one, I think they probably trued up and cleaned up some accounting. You would, you'd rather do that. So you rebased and now you're comparable to open AI.”

“Anthropic is now in their culture interviews saying, how would you feel if the equity went to zero? Because we're looking for people who are mission aligned.”

“They, I, for sure, I don't think they will generate free cash flow anytime soon. I think they're gonna generate a lot of operating cash flow, and then they'll use that to buy a lot of, you know, GPUs XPUs, whatever, whatever I'm gonna call them.”

“We calculate, you know, Nebius and Corweave both gave some interesting disclosures. But you can kind of get to a nine to 10 month payback for Nebius”

“And then SpaceX, because they build these really big clusters, and I think a really important point is they bring them on fast. They have an even faster payback, and they can monetize it, you know, higher”

“I do think you're going to see American open source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier.”

“You're just simply not going to be the low cost provider. If you're not vertically integrated, if you don't own your own compute over the very long. Long-term.”

“And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”

“There are, you know, there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders, and that is the kind of in the epicenter of the blast zone.”

“I think a very plausible outcome is one in which frontier tokens Or 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume, and that's good for everyone, and everyone wins.”

“I think four to five, I think four to five hundred billion is within the zone of like realistic and achievable.”

“Corweave said that they are renting Amperes at economically profitable rates today for 2029. So an Ampere that came out in 2020 is going to have a nine-year life, and I think that's what Nvidia sees”

“In some ways, NVIDIA is kind of becoming the central bank of AI. The Federal Reserve of AI. That is like a way to kind of conceptualize what they are doing. And in the same way, the federal reserve, like a lot of monetary policy, it works through private banks…”

“Essentially, you have the contracted base of installed compute trading at a massive discount to the current spot market. And as those contracts roll off, and Compute gets repriced higher, and Spock can decline, and Compute will still get repriced higher. You k…”

“All open source taking share does is kind of take margin dollars Out of the, ah, frontier model layer, and effectively by, thereby, you know, there is elasticity, thereby driving token demand, you need more demand for compute, and the margins, you know, anthro…”

“If you look at the amount of gigawatts that are supposed to come on, and consensus estimates for hyperscalers, they're effectively modeled, and these are gigawatts of Blackwell and Rubin. Rubin being NVIDIA's next chip, Blackwell being the current chip. They a…”

“Operating cash flows go up, and you could fund this out of, most of this out of operating cash flows, maybe all of it. Like if it reprices at current rates, you could probably fund all of it for the next several years.”

“You can, in a lot of cases, get slightly better outcomes at half the cost. But again, that half the cost, I think a lot of people hear that, they're like, that's bad for AI demand. It's actually not at all because the cost the user pays has, you know, is just …”

“In the bull case, and you know, you've seen church from Cognition, Ramp, and Stripe, that the companies that are spending the most on AI are growing, growing meaningfully faster.”

“If this ever hits ASML's orders, maybe it hits it in five years, and like, the market has forgotten about it, gotten worried about it, forgotten about it, gotten worried about it, forgotten about it, multiple times along the way. so I do think that was prob…”

“What's shocking about those business models is they're growing almost as fast as the frontier labs in the early days. But burning very little cash.”

“They may continue to capture the overwhelming majority of economic value, but kind of not all of it the way they have been. And open source tokens might be the majority of tokens, tokens processed.”

“And this is like, data centers are like, are in a lot of ways the best thing to happen for blue-collar wages in my lifetime.”

“But an author made a mistake in a book. It overestimated the amount of water usage in data centers by 10,000 x. Not a little bit.”

“They've shown over the last three years, they can bring on more compute faster than anyone at lower prices.”

“Grok, 4.5, and Cursor, the sum of that probably hits a ten billion dollar ARR pretty quickly.”

“AI is, I think, going to be the defining political issue of the midterms, and for sure the next presidential election.”

“I think the reason they're ascendant is Zoran Mamdani. I think he is one of the most talented politicians I've ever seen in my lifetime.”

“I profoundly believe the future is composable models, and you're going to every enterprise, You're going to have what Andre Karpathy called the Council of LLNs.”

“They're awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure.”

“Memory is DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year.”

“When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost five billion dollars to put a gigawatt of compute into space.”

“We're going to be using GPUs for Seven years, 10 years, 12 years, and that's great because it lowers the cost to finance them, which makes this AI revolution more financeable.”

“There are a lot of portfolio managers who, if a stock breaks deal price, they sell it no matter what. They consider it a promise that was broken.”

“My thought is that being a token factory is more than enough for the next five to 10 years.”

“I think that's why OpenAI is cutting codex pricing, simply because coding, you know, coding tokens are so valuable, and if you don't have enough of them, you may not be able to get into this RSI loop that, that everyone is, you know,”

“Yeah, so I think what sovereign AI will look like for essentially all countries really other than the United States and China, although I think China is going to fall further and further behind, is just some sort of, you do, you use you know, you use one of th…”

“They've gotten really, really good at that, but man, all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier, and I think mythos is a side of things to come there.”

“If SpaceX puts a city on, on the moon and then Mars, and enables, you know, becomes the British East City Company, the solar system, I think this will, those, there's a lot of hard engineering that needs to happen to go into all that. This will probably be the…”