Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 85% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Baker: Sovereign AI Outside the US Will Rely on Fine-Tuned Open Source

Gavin Baker · Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time · Jun 15, 2026 · at 22:39

Atreides Management founder Gavin Baker discusses national sovereign AI initiatives and frontier model capabilities with host Jordi Hays.

0:00 / 1:03exact quote · 63.9s
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“Yeah, so I think what sovereign AI will look like for essentially all countries really other than the United States and China, although I think China is going to fall further and further behind, is just some sort of, you do, you use you know, you use one of these providers to do some reinforcement learning on your language, your culture, your values you have system prompt you do some supervised fine tuning, And you run that on whatever the best open source model is. I think that's where sovereign AI ends up. And then you run it in your own data centers. So you feel like, you know, it's safe and whatever defense questions you're asking it or whatever, forget questions, whatever defense and intelligence and maybe You know, policing activities your sovereign AI agents are doing, you know, 24 hours a day, you feel like they're safe. So I think that's where sovereign AI ends up, and I think, you know, there'll still be a big build out for that, but man, sovereign AI at the frontier, I don't see it.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

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