The Ledger, every show

“And I don't think it like, You know, 10 X's the size of IT spend or technology spend globally, but it certainly doubles it.”

“And then the only part why, why 18 months is like not even a relevant window to me is I think diffusion is going to take longer than Silicon Valley thinks.”

“That is like what I just described right now is 10 years of work for Accenture in every enterprise on the planet or the next gen Accenture that does this in particular industries or workflows.”

“I promise you, you're not going to be able to blame Anthropic when something goes wrong. And so if you can't blame Anthropic when something goes wrong, then at some point it doesn't really work to tell the company, like to tell your customer, well, That, that …”

“What they think is that, ah, that the outcomes that you're seeing in AI coding will quickly come for other areas of knowledge work, and that is a, ah, a slight misread on the other areas of knowledge work.”

“Editing a video is like, you know, going to be actually in many cases, a harder task than coding. Because the, because again, the code right now is like, it has this great property of in the eval process, in the training process rather, you can instantly evalu…”

“The labs are not going to, you know, take on the liability for every single use case that you do. They're gonna have very narrow liability that they have around copyright and IP protection and stuff like that, but they're not gonna, you know, they're not gonna…”

“The good news is there's going to be value in, in both sides, because even the vertical domain specific players will be riding on top of the intelligence from the horizontal labs. And so in both, in all the scenarios, the labs win, you know, a very big prize l…”

“I think there'll be hundreds of successful, thousands of successful products at that layer, simply because again, enterprises, they just want to, they want to wake up. They want to get their job done. They want to have some alpha relative to competitors. And t…”

“I think certainly probably the biggest takeaway is just like we are nowhere close to hitting a wall. I remember it was probably only about a year ago where there was a lot of talk on like, oh, have we hit a wall? And these things are only kind of eking out, yo…”

“Unless there's some so kind of closed proprietary research event and breakthrough that happens that just simply nobody else knows about, and we have no evidence that we've ever had one of those in AI, like, you know, these things just eventually sort of emerge…”

“The diffusion of AI capability is going to take longer than people in Silicon Valley realize.”

“So you can't fully treat them like humans because here's the thing. And with regular humans, you don't get to look at the Slack channel of the person that, that is working with you or working for you. You don't get to log in as them. You don't get to oversee t…”

“The risk is like a thousand times greater. Like these people, like they will just leak your information whenever they want. Like they will happily just go and send some email to somebody because they got prompt ejected.”

“And so then thus, if anything can ever enter that context window, because they have access to a resource, then in theory you should assume it can be, you know, prompt ejected out of the context window, and I don't know that we know of a way to solve that at th…”

“I do think that will be relatively disruptive You know, for some time until the bigger incumbents can kind of, you know, get out of the way on this. And that will at least create, you know, some precedent or case studies of what this new sort of corporation co…”

“Like, for me right now, I'm like, yeah, we should probably waste a lot of tokens, because that means that we're, like, trying new things.”

“What's happening is we are changing our work to make the agents effective in that model. The agent didn't really adapt to how we work. We basically adapted to how the agent works. All of the economy has to go through that exact same evolution. The rest of the …”

“If a really, really smart human could not do that task in five or 10 minutes for a search retrieval type task, you know, your agent's not gonna be able to do it any better.”

“You can just see how the AI tsunami could wipe you out. If you make just two, three, four or five wrong decisions in this space, like couple wrong architecture decisions, couple wrong AI feature decisions, couple wrong API platform decisions. And you might be …”

“The thing that's going to happen on the ledger of software is we're going to produce far more output of code and thus features per dollar. But on the other end of this, we're going to actually end up spending probably just as much on how do you get all of that…”

“But no matter what, there's going to be 10 to a hundred times more code. So I think you can be very long engineering right now as just a, you know, purely on the dimension of software is going to become increasingly more important. Once agents are, you know, t…”

“We're talking about a category where, you know, it'll be measured in the tens of trillions of dollars. The market caps that will be generated by AI. Some of that will go to the chip providers. Some of that will go to the supply chain of the chip providers. Som…”

“There's five or 10 or a hundred times more agents in the future than people, Which is, I think, a relatively safe assumption given the productivity increase that they're going to enable.”

“We have products that we build five, you know, these are the estimates from the actual engineer that we will build five times faster because of AI coding. And we will as a result of that, be able to ship significantly more capabilities to our customers.”

“I think that you'd have a situation where the Amazons and Googles would probably actually capture the vast portion of the talent in this situation. So it's not clear to me that, like, startups sort of are come out ahead or better off from this particular imple…”

“This is this really counterintuitive thing where, and you've talked about specialization on the last one is like it, the biggest gains of AI go to people who have some degree of expertise in an area to know what is actually true. What is not going to work? Wha…”

“And to your point, it's actually very rare whenever we say these companies disrupted themselves, it's almost never the case that they disrupted themselves. It's the case that they went after a market that they had no, No actual, you know, take the, you know, m…”

“If you wanted to be a new systems integrator, and your whole point is, is that we are a systems integrator, but we use cloud code, or we use cognition, or we use, you know, cursor to get the output, you will have such an advantage over any incumbent because th…”

“I think it's going to look like what we saw in something like SAS or cloud, which is the incumbents get bigger, but then there's all of these new categories that we would not have been able to predict. And then there's lots of 10 and 20 and fifty and one hundr…”

“Open source is insanely valuable, but not in the sense where a law firm should go off and build their own AI project using an open source model. Like, That, that is just a recipe for disaster if, you know, we think that, that every single company on the planet…”

“We will be the reviewers of the AI agents work. We will be the editors. We will be the managers. We'll be the orchestrators. And that's actually how you then get the productivity gains.”

“For the first time ever with AI, we can bring automation to effectively all of that work. And that automation can kind of be tuned based on just how much compute we throw at the problem.”

“And the losses are a choice, to be clear. Like, that's very obvious. Like, they're choosing to lose that money. They're doing it, ah, for a strategic reason. You know, that, that's at least their decision. The strategic reason is, is that this is such a valuab…”

“If we go 10 years into the future, The vast majority of work that gets done in 10 years from now will be work that today is in that category. It's the work that like right now we can't even attack because we're like, I'm not going to hire somebody, pay them a …”

“There will be 100 startups that get created between last year and in three years from now that all become five, 10, twenty billion dollar companies because they're able to find the next set of nouns and verbs”

“So eventually we're going to get to a point where customers are no longer going to just be paying for the intelligence tokens. They're going to be paying for the workflow software that goes on top of the tokens themselves.”

“It's like, it's 20 bucks a month, it's 50 bucks a month, but we know that in 10 years from now, they'll probably be able to drive down their raw materials lower, but we won't be able to command lower prices for those things, because it's just like within a rea…”

“Because I think incumbents are only going to be the agent providers for their existing install base, which means that there's going to be tons of opportunity for so many more agents that those incumbents aren't already selling into.”

“If you just said, here's my entire code base, you know, go run wild, you know, to one agent, it's, it will just, you know, produce worse and worse code over time because it's going to have context rot.”

“We're just in a five year period right now where you're gonna have to build agents for every vertical, every domain, and there's a playbook that's starting to emerge of what that needs to look like.”

“Like, I don't know how anybody would set up a company to be able to beat 50 startups across 50 different domains.”

“This is a company that has A great operator in Sundar, an incredible, you know, AI innovator in, in Demis Jeff Dean, you know, deep on research and science, and then now this kind of hardcore founder in Sergei, like this is not a company that is going to lose …”

“To be worth 10 trillion dollars, you probably want, you know, three hundred billion in profit, let's say. And so with their margins, that means that, you know, they're doing four hundred billion in revenue. Like, that's totally not crazy. 405 hundred billion i…”

“Within one year, every single breakthrough idea eventually gets discovered by everybody else. Like there's never, nobody has kept an advantage for more than a year on some secret idea that, that, that, that only they have.”

“Apple's ultimately advantage is, is they have a distribution model that nobody else has, and they have a form factor of where AI could show up that nobody has, so they don't need, they don't necessarily need to have the best model relative to, you know, one or…”

“AI is going to take over the enterprise. We know this is going to happen, and it needs to happen to us faster than it happens to our competitors, which is a totally different dynamic than we saw with cloud.”

“And that, that's something where I do think We have to be prepared for this as many years. It's about the speed at which humans can change their workflows as opposed to how kind of quickly the technology can just, you know, sort of evolve in advance.”