Gavin Baker
Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management. On 6 shows, 19 appearances, plus 1 compilation re-air not counted. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
investorfounderexecutive@GavinSBaker ↗LinkedIn ↗gavinbaker.net ↗
Gavin Baker is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Atreides Management, a crossover fund he founded in 2019. He previously spent 18 years at Fidelity Investments, where he managed the Fidelity OTC Fund.
6shows
19appearances
422statements
82resolved
40supported
17contradicted
49%fully supported
85said about them ↓ Everything Gavin Baker said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Baker: Debate between humanoid and non-humanoid robots is over
“Is it going to be humanoids or not humanoids? I think that debate is over because humanoids can kind of learn, you know, from watching YouTube videos, and then it's easier for a human being you know, to put on a suit and show the robot how to do it.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Baker predicts Trump will negotiate a deal detrimental to Russia and Ukraine
“I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's going to get a very, very a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine.”
Baker predicts major tech companies will acquire all sports broadcasting rights
“Just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them all.”
Baker predicts the US will hit 5% real GDP growth soon
“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
Baker: China will fail to keep pace with U.S. AI post-Blackwell
“But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're gonna have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.”
Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
Tech Founders Reported No Deteriorating Business Metrics in July and August
“My standard question is, can you tell me one quantitative data point in your business that's getting worse? Just one. That's my standard question, and it's at least in July and August, I haven't been able to find a single person.”
AI Adoption Accelerated Across OpenAI, Open Source, and Grok in Summer
“Now, if we're being honest, you know, Anthropic is you know, in a quiet period, so maybe they've slowed down a little bit, but I do think the rest of the world has accelerated, you know, OpenAI is clearly accelerated. Open source, I think, has accelerated more…”
Anthropic Cleaned Up Accounting to Make Revenue Comparable to OpenAI
“If you're anthropic, one, I think they probably trued up and cleaned up some accounting. You would, you'd rather do that. So you rebased and now you're comparable to open AI.”
Anthropic Asks Candidates If They Are Fine With Equity Going to Zero
“Anthropic is now in their culture interviews saying, how would you feel if the equity went to zero? Because we're looking for people who are mission aligned.”
Frontier AI Labs Will Not Generate Free Cash Flow Anytime Soon
“They, I, for sure, I don't think they will generate free cash flow anytime soon. I think they're gonna generate a lot of operating cash flow, and then they'll use that to buy a lot of, you know, GPUs XPUs, whatever, whatever I'm gonna call them.”
Nebius and CoreWeave Compute Payback Periods Are Nine to Ten Months
“We calculate, you know, Nebius and Corweave both gave some interesting disclosures. But you can kind of get to a nine to 10 month payback for Nebius”
SpaceX Achieves Sub-10-Month Compute Payback on Large Rapidly Built Clusters
“And then SpaceX, because they build these really big clusters, and I think a really important point is they bring them on fast. They have an even faster payback, and they can monetize it, you know, higher”
American Open-Source AI Led by NVIDIA Will Reach Near-Frontier Capabilities
“I do think you're going to see American open source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier.”
Enterprise AI Providers Must Vertically Integrate Compute to Be Low-Cost
“You're just simply not going to be the low cost provider. If you're not vertically integrated, if you don't own your own compute over the very long. Long-term.”
Baker: Anthropic is losing marginal market share to OpenAI and Grok
“And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”
Baker: Software coder job openings are higher today than a year ago
“There are, you know, there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders, and that is the kind of in the epicenter of the blast zone.”
Baker: Frontier models will capture 65 to 85 percent of value
“I think a very plausible outcome is one in which frontier tokens Or 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume, and that's good for everyone, and everyone wins.”
Baker: Anthropic reaching $400B to $500B revenue by 2027 is realistic
“I think four to five, I think four to five hundred billion is within the zone of like realistic and achievable.”
Baker: CoreWeave is profitably renting 2020 Nvidia Ampere GPUs through 2029
“Corweave said that they are renting Amperes at economically profitable rates today for 2029. So an Ampere that came out in 2020 is going to have a nine-year life, and I think that's what Nvidia sees”
Baker: Nvidia is functioning as the central bank of AI
“In some ways, NVIDIA is kind of becoming the central bank of AI. The Federal Reserve of AI. That is like a way to kind of conceptualize what they are doing. And in the same way, the federal reserve, like a lot of monetary policy, it works through private banks…”
Baker: Expiring GPU Contracts Will Reprice Higher and Settle AI ROI Doubts
“Essentially, you have the contracted base of installed compute trading at a massive discount to the current spot market. And as those contracts roll off, and Compute gets repriced higher, and Spock can decline, and Compute will still get repriced higher. You k…”
Baker: Open Source AI Shifts Margins From Frontier Models to Infrastructure
“All open source taking share does is kind of take margin dollars Out of the, ah, frontier model layer, and effectively by, thereby, you know, there is elasticity, thereby driving token demand, you need more demand for compute, and the margins, you know, anthro…”
The other half of the tape: Gavin Baker's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 80 times in 46 episodes across the shows. 5 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Jason Calacanis 20John Coogan 8Ted Seides 7Jordi Hays 7Brad Gerstner 6Dan Loeb 4Chamath Palihapitiya 4Thomas Laffont 2
Statements about Gavin Baker, by other people (5)
Jason Calacanis predicts all large language models will become open-source commodities
“Gavin Baker came on this podcast and said it's the fastest deprecating asset in the world was a large language model. He's been proven right. They're not worth anything. They're all going to be open source. They're all going to be commoditized, and that's for …”
Baker: Larry Page willing to risk Google bankruptcy to win AI race
“He said, Larry Page has said internally at Google many times, I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. Everybody is focused on ROI, but the people making the decisions are not basically saying that scale, it's all about scale.”
Laffont: More tech companies are valued over $1B privately than publicly
“There's more private companies in tech That are worth more than a billion than public ones.”
Loeb: Great Analysts Today Must Master Industry Nuances and Technology
“I think now it's somebody who's like a Gavin Baker type, a junior Gavin Baker, somebody who understands a company or understands an industry and understands the nuances of a technology.”
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
All-In 29
TBPN 25
BG2 Pod 9
Capital Allocators 8
Invest Like the Best 6
the a16z Podcast 3
2026 39 mentions in 18 episodes 2 per episode
- Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
- Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy · Invest Like The Best
- Nvidia Earnings, Paramount Emerges Victorious, Block Layoffs | Diet TBPN
- Nvidia CRUSHES Earnings. So Why Did the Stock Crash?
- OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
- All-In's 2026 Predictions
- U.S. Bans New Chinese Humanoids, Zuck’s Op-Ed, eBay's $56M Lawsuit | Diet TBPN
- Blue Origin Raises Capital, Getty-Shutterstock Deal Dies, GPT-5.6 Launches Tomorrow | Diet TBPN
- 10 more episodes that year, every mention in 2026 →
2025 24 mentions in 14 episodes 2 per episode
- Ted on Alt Goes Mainstream (EP.458)
- Project Stargate, The T Word, Ramp Treasury, Audience Ad Reads, See You at Davos
- Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
- NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
- Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal
- The World’s Fastest Growing Defense Company, OpenAI’s Code Red, Google Strikes Back | Diet TBPN
- Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz on the State of AI
- 6 more episodes that year, every mention in 2025 →
2024 11 mentions in 9 episodes 1 per episode
- AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Year in Review 2024 (EP.424)
- Kristof Gleich – Boutique Managers and Active ETFs at Harbor Capital (EP.411)
- Stephen Nesbitt – Innovation in Private Markets for RIAs (EP.410)
- Thomas Laffont | All-In Summit 2024
- In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
- 1 more episode that year, every mention in 2024 →
2022 5 mentions in 4 episodes 1 per episode
- E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
- E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
- E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
- E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
- every mention in 2022, scene by scene →
2021 1 mention in 1 episode
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Gavin's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVEST LIKE THE BESTLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 3 | 153 | 56% 15/27 | full record on Invest Like the Best → |
| ALL-INLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 11 | 146 | 46% 18/39 | full record on All-In → |
| a16zLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 2 | 44 | 60% 3/5 | full record on the a16z Podcast → |
| CAPITAL ALLOCATORSLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 1 | 40 | 0% 0/2 | full record on Capital Allocators → |
| TBPNLEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 1 +1 | 22 | 75% 3/4 | full record on TBPN → |
| BG2LEDGER | Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 1 | 17 | 20% 1/5 | full record on BG2 Pod → |