Superforecasters
topic on 4 shows · 9 statements across 5 episodes
the Knowledge Project 
Capital Allocators 
the a16z Podcast 
20VC
9 statements about Superforecasters, every show
Tversky: Superforecasters succeed through fine calibration and perspective changing
“They are numerate, so they can distinguish between 10% probability and 15% probability, and they can change their predictions by a percentage point or two percentage points, so they're well calibrated in their use of probabilities. But most of all, they seem t…”
Mauboussin: Good Judgment Project found base-rate training most improved forecasting accuracy
“What they found was the training did improve people's accuracy of their forecasts, and it turned out they found the thing that was most important in that training was basically this, is this idea of teaching them about base rates, and reference classes, and ju…”
Maples: Tetlock's Superforecasters is essential reading for startup founders
“My favorite book of recent times is Super Forecasters by Tetlock. So the reason I like it is it provides a lot of frameworks for how to deal with uncertainty. And I think that that's what founders need right now.”
Steven Johnson: Tetlock's superforecasters possess high openness to experience
“Tetlock's predictors the super forecasters that we talked about, they were, they had that personality trait in, in spades in general.”
Tetlock: Geopolitical forecasting relies on 70% skill and 30% luck
“Well, what we find in the ARPA tournament is, is that there certainly is an element of chance in predicting geopolitical and geoeconomic outcomes but the skill luck ratio seems to be about 70 30.”
Tetlock: Superforecasters uniquely believe probability estimation is a cultivatable skill
“They tend to score higher on measures of fluid intelligence. They tend to score higher on measures of active open-mindedness. But if I had to identify one factor that I think best distinguishes super forecasters from other forecasters who are equally intellige…”
Tetlock: Superforecasters break intractable problems into exposed subcomponent estimates
“And that's what super forecasters are pretty good at doing. Breaking down seemingly attractable problems into semi-attractable components and then just pushing. They're not afraid of looking stupid and making estimates that observers can see and look at and sa…”
Tetlock: Modeling randomness is a good way to fail as a forecaster
“If you want to be a good forecaster, you don't spend very much time working on roulette wheel type problems. I mean, if, I mean, if you go to, if you visit casinos, you'll find lots of people who think they can detect patterns in roulette wheel spins. And they…”
Tetlock: Superforecasters actively second-guess their successes rather than just taking credit
“And supers do that too. But they also second guess their successes. They say, well, were we lucky just where we really nailed this question, but were we lucky? Could it have gone otherwise? Were we almost wrong? That's an unusual question for people to ask the…”