Tetlock: Geopolitical forecasting relies on 70% skill and 30% luck
Philip Tetlock · #6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future · Dec 8, 2015 · at 6:04
Philip Tetlock, psychologist and author of Superforecasting, discusses empirical results from the IARPA geopolitical forecasting tournament.
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“Well, what we find in the ARPA tournament is, is that there certainly is an element of chance in predicting geopolitical and geoeconomic outcomes but the skill luck ratio seems to be about 70 30.”
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