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ARPA tournament

1 statements across 1 episodes · 0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2015 by Philip Tetlock · across every show →

Everything said about ARPA tournament, oldest first

Dec 8, 2015
Assertion Supported
Tetlock: Geopolitical forecasting relies on 70% skill and 30% luck
“Well, what we find in the ARPA tournament is, is that there certainly is an element of chance in predicting geopolitical and geoeconomic outcomes but the skill luck ratio seems to be about 70 30.”
Philip Tetlock Dec 8, 2015 ▶ 6:04 #6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
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