superforecasters
1 statements across 1 episodes · 1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Feb 4, 2021 by Michael Mauboussin · across every show →
Everything said about superforecasters, oldest first
Feb 4, 2021 positive
Mauboussin: Good Judgment Project found base-rate training most improved forecasting accuracy
“What they found was the training did improve people's accuracy of their forecasts, and it turned out they found the thing that was most important in that training was basically this, is this idea of teaching them about base rates, and reference classes, and ju…”