Author Steven B. Johnson discusses Philip Tetlock's research on superforecasters and the psychological traits that predict strong decision-making.
Insight
Johnson: Diverse, lower-IQ groups outperform homogeneous, high-IQ groups in complex decisions
“You take groups of high IQ individuals who are all from the same, say academic background or economic background and have them make a complicated group decision. And then you take a group of actually lower IQ people, but who come from diverse fields, professio…”
Insight
Johnson: Diverse members make insider groups more creative without even speaking
“The presence of difference in a group makes the kind of initial kind of insiders more open to new ideas. If you have kind of an insider group, a homogeneous group, and you bring in folks who bring some kind of difference, even if they don't say anything, the i…”
Assertion Partly supported
Johnson: Famous political experts predict the future worse than random chance
“All the experts are like worse than a dart throwing chimp at predicting the future. And the more famous you got, the worse you were at”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Johnson: Sci-fi predicts the future more accurately than official forecasters
“I mean, I certainly think that you would find more things that ended up happening in fictional accounts than, you know, official people making predictions about the future outside of a fictional context.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steven Johnson: Extraterrestrial civilizations contacted by Earth will be more advanced
“By definition, they are going to be more advanced than we are, which is a whole complicated reason why that is, but they will be.”
Opinion
Johnson: Blockchain Models Are Needed for Sustainable Open Internet Protocols
“Some of the blockchain Models and some of the token economy stuff that, that you've written about as a way of creating sustainable business models for open protocols, basically, which is what we really kind of need.”