Premortem

topic on 5 shows · 21 statements across 14 episodes

the Knowledge Project BigDeal Lenny's Podcast Capital Allocators 20VC

21 statements about Premortem, every show

BIGDEAL Insight
Sanchez: Pre-Mortems Surface Hidden Project Risks by Prompting Failure Analysis First
“There's also this psychologist by the name of Gary Klein, and he realized that finding out like this Pre-mortem and exercise elite teams now run before, you know, big launches. So why, if the project was to fail, what would have happened? If this was to not wo…”
Codie Sanchez Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 9:48 How to ACTUALLY Achieve Your Goals (Backed by Science)
Kahneman: Premortems legitimize and reward dissent in group decision-making
“It's beautiful because when people are coming close to a decision, it becomes Difficult to raise doubts or to raise questions. People who are slowing the group down when the group is nearing a decision are procedures really, you know, it's annoying, you know, …”
Daniel Kahneman Jul 22, 2025 ▶ 54:57 Daniel Kahneman: Algorithms Make Better Decisions Than You
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
Duke: Premortems alone generally fail to change people's plans or behavior
“What you find with pre-mortems, this is actually work. I actually did this work with Marie Schweitzer and Linnea Gombe, who are both at Penn. Then when you have people do pre-mortems it generally doesn't actually change their plan very much, or it changed thei…”
Annie Duke May 2, 2024 ▶ 1:05:35 This will make you a better decision maker | Annie Duke (Thinking In Bets, former pro poker player)
20VC Insight
Batchu: Reserve pre-mortems for major strategy departures and high-risk investments
“So I typically think of like pre-mortems as something that feels like a big departure from current strategy or something that's a lot of investment or that you believe has a lot of high potential in terms of visibility or risk or pipeline generation. For thing…”
Sri Batchu Jul 26, 2023 ▶ 17:21 Sri Batchu: Biggest Growth Lesson from Instacart & Opendoor; 70% of Experiments Should Fail | E1040 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Mauboussin: Premortems surface downside risks by forcing independent, forward-looking critique
“And the other one, I mean, the other technique is known as a premortem, which you're probably familiar with, which is we pretend we made the investment. It's now a year from now, or two years from now, and this investment's turned very sour. It's very bad. We'…”
Michael Mauboussin Nov 4, 2022 ▶ 18:15 Michael Mauboussin: The Single Biggest Mistake Investors Make In Decision-Making | 20VC #945 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Doshi: Running a proper premortem prevents ugly postmortems
“If you do a premortem right, you will not have to do an ugly postmortem. You might still do a postmortem to learn, but odds are very high that it is not going to be a bad postmortem.”
Shreyas Doshi Aug 25, 2022 ▶ 28:59 The art of product management | Shreyas Doshi (Stripe, Twitter, Google, Yahoo)
Klein: Premortems work by rewarding people for surfacing failure modes
“The way the premortem works is it reverses the usual dynamic of these meetings. Often at the end of a meeting, somebody will say, all right, we're done. We're just about done with the meeting. Does anybody see any problems? Nobody wants to identify a problem. …”
Gary Klein Aug 9, 2022 ▶ 51:54 Gary Klein: Insights For Making Better Decisions
Klein: Premortems fail when framed as 'what can go wrong'
“One of the mistakes is that they just frame it wrong from the beginning. They'll say, okay, we should do a pre-mortem. So what can go wrong? It's not an issue of what can go wrong. We're dealing with a crystal ball that has showed that the plan has failed. We …”
Gary Klein Aug 9, 2022 ▶ 54:11 Gary Klein: Insights For Making Better Decisions
20VC Insight
Elena Verna: Premortems are far more effective than postmortems for growth teams
“I learned from Fareed, who was director of growth at Slack, that premortems are far more effective than postmortems.”
Elena Verna Oct 28, 2021 ▶ 29:04 20 Growth: The 3 Levers to Successful Growth Models, The 3 Types of Growth Hires Startups Need To Know, The 3 Stages All Successful Growth Teams Need To Go Through with Elena Verna, Advisor @ MongoDB and HP
20VC Insight
Duke: Perform a pre-mortem immediately after making an investment
“As soon as you make an investment, you need to do premortem, and you need to say, what are the ways that this investment can go wrong?”
Annie Duke Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 24:24 20VC: Annie Duke on Reversible vs Irreversible Decisions, How To Evaluate Risk, The Theory of Sunk Cost in Venture & How to Optimise Both the Discussion and Quality of Investment Decisions
Kahneman: Premortems legitimize team dissent and reveal critical decision loopholes
“And the premortem legitimizes that sort of dissent and that sort of doubt. Not only legitimizes it, you know, it rewards it. And so that's a very good idea. I don't, you know, I don't think that it's going to prevent people from making mistakes, big mistakes, …”
Daniel Kahneman Oct 15, 2019 ▶ 48:47 #68 Daniel Kahneman: Putting Your Intuition on Ice
Klein: Cap pre-mortem risk writing at exactly two minutes
“When we did this for a number of projects in my company, one minute was leaving people frustrated, because people were still writing when they said time is up. When we tried three minutes, a lot of people would be finished, and they'd be twiddling their thumbs…”
Gary Klein Sep 23, 2019 ▶ 24:04 Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
Klein: Pre-mortem leaders must share a serious risk first to set candor
“And the reason for that is people don't know how candid to be, and the leader is going to set an example. And if the leader picks something that's frivolous or trivial, that tells people not to take it seriously. So it's really important for the leader to come…”
Gary Klein Sep 23, 2019 ▶ 24:31 Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
Klein: Pre-mortems fail unless facilitators assert the plan has definitively failed
“We see premortems fail when the person who's facilitating will say something like, okay, we've seen the plan, let's do a premortem, what could go wrong with the plan? That's the wrong approach. What can go wrong with the plan? That's a typical critiquing appro…”
Gary Klein Sep 23, 2019 ▶ 25:35 Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
Klein: Pre-mortems succeed by turning risk identification into a competition
“On the other hand, with a pre-mortem, The contest is to see who can come up with the most clever and worrisome issues that haven't been discussed at the time, so the whole incentive system changes, and now people, people are competing with each other to come u…”
Gary Klein Sep 23, 2019 ▶ 31:15 Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Johnson: A 27-person pre-mortem uncovered four path-critical risks I missed
“I ran a pre-mortem a year ago on a project we were going to launch. 27 people in the room. Wrote 27 things down on the first pass. Five of them were path critical. Of those five, I'd only thought of one.”
Paul Johnson Sep 23, 2019 ▶ 38:11 Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
Klein: Pre-mortems must be capped at 20 to 30 minutes
“Premortem should take no more than a half hour, Maybe 20 minutes. If it goes for an hour, that's too long. So there's a virtue of keeping it really brief, because that compresses the energy rather than dissipates it.”
Gary Klein Sep 23, 2019 ▶ 44:43 Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Klein: Pre-mortems reduce overconfidence significantly more than listing pros and cons
“Listing pros and cons are just cons. Reduced confidence, but the premortem reduced confidence more than any of the other techniques we measured.”
Gary Klein Sep 23, 2019 ▶ 46:28 Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
Duke: Premortems redefine teamwork to include exploring failure modes
“So I think this idea of doing these premortems are really important because it shifts what it means to be a team player into something where you're willing to explore the way that things can go wrong.”
Annie Duke Nov 19, 2018 ▶ 31:59 Annie Duke – Thinking More in Bets (Capital Allocators, EP.76)
Duke: Premortems fix corporate agreeableness by rewarding failure identification
“When you do a premortem, now you've changed what it means to be a team player, right? Like the people who are going to get pats on the back are the ones who come up with the most creative reasons for failure.”
Annie Duke Jul 25, 2018 ▶ 1:13:08 #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong
Klein: Post-commitment premortems uncover overlooked risks and create monitoring checklists
“What we have found is that creative thinking, once you're fully committed, It lets you take a step back and identify things that, from a different perspective, maybe you didn't do, identify earlier on, and what it also does is it gives you a sort of checklist …”
Jason Klein Oct 9, 2017 ▶ 37:08 Jason Klein – Investing to Cure Cancer (Capital Allocators, EP.28)

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