Mauboussin: Premortems surface downside risks by forcing independent, forward-looking critique
Michael Mauboussin · Michael Mauboussin: The Single Biggest Mistake Investors Make In Decision-Making | 20VC #945 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Nov 4, 2022 · at 18:15
Michael Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. He is discussing decision-making techniques that improve risk assessment in investment teams.
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“And the other one, I mean, the other technique is known as a premortem, which you're probably familiar with, which is we pretend we made the investment. It's now a year from now, or two years from now, and this investment's turned very sour. It's very bad. We're on, on, on displeased with it. And then each of us writes down today why basically the story from the financial times and wall street journal that's published two years from now, why this didn't turn out well. Right. So again, it's the same mechanism that you just described, which is you're encouraging people to think on their own. Why this, you know, sort of what the downside is in these types of scenarios. And that again, surfaces potential problems.”
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