The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 249 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Acharya: A single individual will eventually build a $100 billion revenue company
“I think that there are businesses that will be built by, you know, a hundred billion revenue, one person.”
Horowitz: Big Tech's startup cloud deals involve illegal roundtripping accounting
“The big tech companies have done this thing which we thought was illegal because we observed it occur at AOL and people went to jail, but what they've done is they invest in startups, you know, huge amounts of money. Microsoft and Amazon and Google are all doi…”
Isaacman: NASA astronauts will build President Trump's moon base
“When we return to the moon, America will not look down on the prime lunar real estate while our rivals occupy it. NASA astronauts will be on the surface, building President Trump's moon base, and we will realize the scientific, economic, and national security …”
Acharya: Single-person $100M run-rate companies are coming or already exist
“The like single person, a hundred million run rate company is coming, or maybe it's already here.”
Patel: Intel faces bankruptcy without massive cash infusion or 50% layoffs
“Intel is literally gonna go bankrupt if they don't have a big cash infusion, or they lay off, like, half the company, right?”
Sivulka: AI agents will contribute over 50% of global GDP within a decade
“One of my big predictions is that over 50% of the global GDP will be contributed by AI agents sometime in the next decade.”
Musk and Huang Co-Designed an Orbital NVIDIA Rubin Rack for 2027
“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”
Gaybrick: Global Software Engineers Will Increase Despite AI Efficiencies
“And so I think there will be more software engineers in the world.
we will need few of that, fewer of them to do the things we're already doing.”
Horowitz predicts AI will cure cancer, end traffic deaths, and eliminate poverty
“Not just we can, we're gonna end traffic deaths. We're gonna cure cancer. We'll, we're gonna end poverty, as we know it.”
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before end of Trump's term
“NASA has stated we will achieve the national imperative to return, ah, to the moon and establish an enduring presence before the end of President Trump's term.”
Fraden: Fortune 500 will employ more people in 30 years than today
“At a very high level, I just don't believe the Fortune 500 will employ fewer people in 30 years than they do today, because the ones that try and cut all the people will no longer be in the Fortune 500.”
Keith Rabois predicts 4% US GDP growth will render national debt irrelevant
“We're gonna have four percent or more growth all of next year. That will make the debt irrelevant. You can grow your way out of deficits.”
Bhattacharya: FDA will issue updated pregnancy guidelines for acetaminophen use
“There will be, yeah. So that's something that Dr. McCary, the FDA commissioner is working on. And there'll be also you know, changes in, in like how Medicare pays, Medicare, CMS, Medicare, and Medicaid pay for Leucovorin. So it's a cross-agency collaboration f…”
Cass: Trump's tariffs will boost US manufacturing output within years
“I think if the long run is you know, anywhere upwards of a few years, I think it will. I think the question is how long does it take to actually change investment decisions? And then how long does it take investments to come online? But I would expect to see t…”
Dwarkesh Patel: Post-AGI annual economic growth will exceed 20%
“And so you're gonna have this explosive dynamic. And once we get like that loop closed, I think it would just be like, 20% growth plus.”
Long: AI cyberattacks will disable critical infrastructure within two years
“I think what I'm really worried about is that when you're going to see this actually transition to people being actively hurt you know, hospitals being taken down, energy systems taken offline, other things like that. Obviously we've had cases of that already …”
Andreessen: AI will expand entertainment and tech industry jobs and output
“On the other side of this kind of change, typically what happens is a much larger industry with like way more employment, way more output. And I, I'm a hundred percent convinced that's what's going to happen for sure in the tech industry and for sure in, in, i…”
Ismail: Generative AI will replace most lawyers
“The best benefit is we'll replace most of the lawyers. Because you could just say, generate me a contract that has these characteristics and it'll throw in the clauses and et cetera.”
Disk drives, tape drives, and SSDs will all go away
“We will have much more in-memory data, systems that literally live in real memory, and the notion of disk drives and tape drives and even SSDs will all go away.”
Hastings: Linear TV will disappear completely in 10 to 20 years
“Linear TV, 1020 years from now, will disappear. It will be, once in a while, you'll see it in a hotel, like where you see a fixed-line phone, but other than that, you know, you're not gonna see it, and everyone around the world will be doing internet video as …”
Verdian predicts Anthropic is about to go public five years after funding
“Anthropic was really first funded in twenty-twenty-one. It's about to go public five years later.”
George predicts robotics will surpass language AI categories within ten years
“We are nowhere on robotics, but I think robotics is going to be bigger than the language stuff. And I think it's going to happen in the next 10 years.”
Johnson: No base model has used new view prediction before Atlas
“And this is a really fundamental primitive that we think is super exciting, a super new primitive For base models that no one's ever done before, right?”
Kha: Anthropic Is Going Public Later This Year
“But obviously, anthropics go in public later this year.”
Kalanick: Automated food delivery will eventually undercut grocery store costs
“Is production of food going to get automated? And is the delivery of food going to get automated? I think we'd all say yes. And if that's the case, then there will be a service that, that prepares and delivers that food at cheaper than going to the grocery sto…”
Younis: Self-driving features will become cheap or default by early 2030s
“If you had to ask me for what that number is, 28 SOP, 29, start of production, 29, 30, and then by the early thirties, it'll start becoming very cheap to free.”
Younis: Robotaxis will be routine in 200 major US cities by 2030
“It's 26 now. I mean, certainly by 30.”
Jake Paul predicts he will enter politics within 10 to 15 years
“I would probably say, yeah, the most like obvious one that I'm like super passionate about is, is definitely politics. And that seems to, you know, grow as I get older as well because of what Jeff was saying is like, how do I, okay, we have the money, we have …”
Jake Paul plans to play college football at Stanford and join NFL
“I do have NFL aspirations after boxing. I want to play slot receiver, and so I think to, you know, get that experience in college first would be good, so I could walk onto the Stanford team. It, yeah, it, I'm being serious though, yeah.”
Evans: Tech industry cannot spend $10 trillion annually on AI infrastructure
“We can't spend 10 trillion dollars a year on our AI infrastructure, because there isn't 10 trillion dollars a year there to spend on it.”
Evans: Tech industry will spend $1T to $2T on AI CapEx
“Over the next couple of years, we've got like a trillion or two trillion dollars of capex coming down the pipe, and the models get a hundred x, 200 x, if it's more efficient every year.”
Rowan: Apollo will expand daily valuations across entire credit business by September
“This is about creating an ecosystem, and by the end of September, this will be across the entirety of our credit business.”
Marc Rowan predicts credit spreads will widen from AI concentration
“I think spreads are gonna widen.”
Arizona DPS seeks international presence with foreign intelligence officers
“One of the things in Arizona that I'm doing is I'm leaning heavily into making sure that we're having sort of an international presence as well. So we have a lot of partnerships with different groups, especially, you know, of course we are a border state, so w…”
Isaacman: NASA will launch moon rockets every few months, not years
“We are gonna get back into the habit of launching moon rockets in months, not years.”
Isaacman: NASA to embed engineers at contractors and demand monthly CEO briefings
“We are going to embed responsible engineers in every one of the prime contractors, every one of the subcontractors that has components on the critical path. CEOs of these companies are going to brief me every 30 days on how they're going to meet our timelines”
Isaacman: NASA will maintain SLS rocket through at least Artemis V or VI
“We've got Artemis through at least, or SLS through at least Artemis five or six. We're gonna make the most of it, and then we will continue to evolve our, ah, our architecture until we are watching, ah, NASA astronauts going to and from the moon measured in mo…”
Isaacman: US Will Deploy Nuclear Power in Space Before Term Ends
“I promised him America will get underway in space on nuclear power before the end of his term.”
An LLM trained on pre-1916 physics will never derive general relativity
“Take an LLM and train it on pre-nineteen-sixteen or nineteen-eleven physics and see if it can come up with the theory of relativity. If it does, then we have AGI. I mean, it's a high bar, but, you know, we should have high bars. It won't.”
Huberman: Over 50% of Americans will take GLP-1s within five years
“I'm guessing that more than half, especially people who come from families or communities where there's a lot of obesity are gonna be taking them.”
Cannon-Brookes: Consumption Pricing Won't Dominate Enterprise SaaS
“I definitely do not believe that it will be the majority pricing manner for all software or all SaaS based software, because when you talk to customers, they hate it.”
Chris Lyons: A single-person startup will build a billion-dollar business using AI
“One of our theses is that at 1.1 person will be able to build a billion dollar business with the tools that are available right now, you know.”
George: Oracle will be cash flow negative for years due to CapEx
“They're going to go cashflow negative for many years to come.”
David George: AI model companies will add 75-80% of public software's net revenue in 2026
“And I think if you were to do that same comparison for 2026, all of the entire public software industry, I mean, SAP, this is not just SaaS, like including SAP and older software companies. I think the AI companies, the model companies will be something like 7…”
Solomon: Federal Reserve will likely execute only a couple more rate cuts
“That doesn't mean I think we're going to see many more rate cuts, but we're probably going to see a couple more.”
Rampell: An AI-native startup will build a better CRM and displace Salesforce
“Somebody is going to out Salesforce, Salesforce, not for the hostages that they have, but is going to build the greenfield version of Salesforce because how is that possible? Everybody hates using Salesforce. There's a new company that's going to do this bette…”
Horowitz: AI cycle will yield more $1B+ companies than internet era
“I think in AI the products are having even bigger economic impact. And so I think there are going to be more things certainly more companies that are worth You know, over a billion dollars and over ten billion dollars, and then the last era, I mean, from what …”