The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,795 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jennings: Block's >40% RIF heavily targeted software developers over sales
“We did a reduction in force that was, you know, slightly greater than 40%. And that wasn't even you know, to the conversation we were just having, the tools were flowing through really meaningfully on the development side. And so the cuts were way larger on th…”
Labenz: Claude 4 system card documented AI blackmailing a human engineer
“In the cloud four system card, they reported blackmailing of the human. The setup was that the AI had access to the engineer's email and They told the AI that it was going to be like replaced with a, you know, a less ethical version or something like that. It …”
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
Bhattacharya: NIH funded the Wuhan lab without the capability to audit it
“The NIH had sent money to the Wuhan lab but we couldn't audit it.”
Dapper Dan: Gucci copied his 1980s Diane Dixon jacket design
“Gucci created this jacket that I created in the eighties for Diane Dixon.”
Rogers: State Department shifts digital freedom policy toward VPNs and Community Notes
“Like, that was the kind of thing that was countenanced before that's not countenanced now, and we're much friendlier to initiatives like censorship circumvention VPNs and to initiatives like X's Community Notes that put that power in the hands of the users or …”
Rogers: EU official Thierry Breton threatened Elon Musk over Trump interview
“I think, you know, one key moment in August, 20, 24 was when a now former EC European Commission official, Terry Breton, Sent a letter to Elon Musk threatening him with regulatory penalties if he aired an upcoming interview on X with then presidential candidat…”
George: OpenAI and Anthropic added half of public software's 2025 net revenue
“Public software companies added forty six billion dollars of revenue in 20, 25. If you just add up OpenAI and Anthropic on their, on a run rate basis, they added almost half of that.”
Horowitz: Memphis police lowered recruitment standards enough to hire criminals
“Because of the shortage many police departments have lowered their standards. So the kind of criticism of the police was, okay, you have, and it really, like, if you looked into it, There were some, like, psychos who joined the police force. They couldn't get …”
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Nejatian: Opendoor launches home return policy in Dallas, Texas
“Which, by the way, we launched this yesterday at Opendoor in Dallas, Texas. You buy a home from Opendoor, you don't like it, you can return it. Like, you can move it early, try it out, don't like it, return it.”
Kupor: OPM introduces forced distribution, capping top executive ratings at 30%
“So one of the things that we're doing, we just put out guidance on this, at least with respect to what are called the SES, which are the most senior level people in government, is we are effectively doing a modicum of a forced distribution. And so we put out g…”
Schimpf: China possesses 250 times the shipbuilding capacity of the US
“Where there's something like 250 times the shipbuilding capacity you know, massively, massively, probably thousands of times on the weapon side. You know, it is just on drones. It's massive. Like, you just, kind of look category by category, massively outpacin…”
Rampell: Coupon extensions like Honey steal affiliate attribution at checkout
“And then it's like, do you want a coupon code? Oh, why? Yes, I do. Why would I not want a coupon code? 10% off, click here. You go click here. What does it do? It redirects you to an affiliate page. It puts a cookie on your machine. It redirects you back to th…”
McCune: Current AI tech lobbying is dwarfed by decade of safety spending
“But I mean, when people are writing these articles about the fact that the AI industry is, you know, pumping all this money into the system, Certainly, like, I'm not suggesting that there's not money in the system. We're obviously active on the political and p…”
Smith: US factory construction boomed under Biden after decades of stagnation
“But when you look at factory construction, real, real factory construction, you saw this enormous, you saw it basically flat at a flat level for decades and decades at a fairly low level. Then you saw this enormous boom during the Biden years and all the facto…”
Srinivasan: Google paid over $100 million into Windsurf's account for dividends
“Google put a hundred million plus in the bank account of WindSurf where the intent was to dividend it out.”
Topol: Personalized vaccines are curing pancreatic and kidney cancers
“So vaccines now are capable Of cures of pancreatic cancer, kidney cancer, with these personalized vaccines using the proteins of the person's tumor.”
Vance: Migrant border crossings dropped 94 percent last month
“Last month, migrant crossings were down 94% to their lowest number all time, and that happened just in two months of serious Border enforcement.”
Schimpf: Wargames show key U.S. munition stockpiles run out in eight days
“You know, one of the areas where we see it is showing up with weapons, so when you look at these wargaming sort of scenarios, and you know, all these wargames are sort of questionable in their own ways but pretty consistently the stockpile of key U.S. Munition…”
Sheriff McMahill: Legalizing marijuana has failed to eradicate the black market
“The legalization of marijuana has done nothing to eradicate the black market of marijuana.”
Andreessen: AI doomer Eliezer Yudkowsky advocates bombing data centers
“The AI version of that is, you know, Eliezer Yadkowsky's version of that is we must bomb data centers. Like, if there's a data center that we think might take off, like, if the training run starts to go too well, like, we need to send in the Air Force and be b…”
Dolgov: Waymo will continue using LiDAR, radar, and cameras together
“So yeah, I think the trend, you know, for us that we'll, you know, using all three modalities just, you know, makes a lot of sense.”
Horowitz: Biden administration sued to block a16z portfolio's Sanofi drug deal
“We have a company with an incredible drug platform. They cured. A rare disease, like past phase one clinical trials, carried it, sell the drug to Sanofi because, you know, so they can get some of the money back to develop more things, and the Biden administrat…”
Casado: AI startups are the fastest-growing companies in internet history
“We're seeing the fastest growing companies we've seen in the history of the internet, including, by the way, the internet itself. And this is by measure for revenue or the number of users, et cetera, right?”
Cuban: PBMs exclude $700 biosimilar Usimri to protect drug margin revenues
“Humira is about 8000 dollars a month. Six to 8000 dollars a month. USIMRI is about 700 dollars a month. But they won't add USIMRI to their formularies because they don't want to use the revenue in the margin.”
Cuban: Big three PBMs pay independent pharmacies $0.50 for $12 scripts
“If you're dealing with one of those big three PBMs, it cost an independent pharmacy probably 12 dollars, give or take, on the location to fill a script. They're paying them 50 cents”
Horowitz: Biden administration uses extra-legal regulatory pressure to choke crypto companies
“We're seeing you know, this administration do the same thing. In something called choke .2, but this time with crypto companies and, you know, there's no law that they're following. There's no rule. There's no legislation. There's no vote. There's no nothing. …”
Horowitz: Higher Share of Women Enter STEM in Kazakhstan Than Sweden
“Way more women go into STEM in like Kazakhstan than in Sweden.”
Andreessen: American university faculty is radically politically polarized toward liberals
“It's an empirical observation that the faculty at American universities is now radically polarized on in, in one political direction. Radically, and we could also post a graph on this maybe, which is the numbers are like really radical. There's fields in which…”
Mensch: Mixtral matches Llama 2 70B performance at one-sixth the cost
“Mixtral is actually on par with Lama-to-seven TB while being approximately six times cheaper or six times faster for the same price.”
Levine: No Open-Source Company Has Been Fully Displaced by Cloud Providers
“Can you name a single example of a company that's been fully displaced by a cloud provider? And the answer is no. And so I think that our concerns around large cloud vendors coming in and just co-opting an open source project and putting you out of business, t…”
Dapper Dan: Sonia Sotomayor represented Fendi during a raid on his store
“Sotomayor. Anybody know who she is? Sotomayor. She's a Supreme Court Justice. At this time, she's working for Fendi, as one of the lawyers for Fendi's. She comes in the store with the team.”
Cal Turner Jr. fired his brother as COO to avoid bankruptcy
“The hardest and toughest decision I ever had to make was the decision to fire my brother. Who was the chief operating officer, and the company was really in trouble. We were on the verge of chapter 11, and when you're in that situation, and the CEO and the COO…”
Caplan: Standard credentials and seniority do not predict actual teacher effectiveness
“The main thing known is none of, like, the obvious social science measures of teacher quality predict teacher quality. So, having credentials from better schools, or having more credentials, or even more experience, none of the standard things that are in the …”
Sutton: Emotional intelligence is only 10% as important as IQ
“EQ is one of the most overrated concepts on the planet. It's there, it matters, but if you look at the evidence, it's about, a good guess, 10% as important as old-fashioned IQ.”
Osnos: Trump hired actors for his 2016 campaign announcement crowd
“He hired actors to flesh out the crowd at his announcement speech. He really did, meaning he didn't think that people were actually even going to come to his announcement”
Brett Hagler: Red Cross raised $500M for Haiti but built six homes
“The Red Cross, this is an article that came out a couple months ago. They raised what was called a half billion dollars for Haiti after the earthquake. And they made a lot of promises to build homes and things like that. And after five years, they've built six…”
De Grey: Amyloid clearance is solved but requires combination therapies for Alzheimer's
“Well, in one case, Alzheimer's disease, that's also, that's very much in clinical trials, and we basically solve the problem. That can now be eliminated. It doesn't have much effect on Alzheimer's disease on its own, but it's a fair bet that in combination wit…”
Hearn: Reaching Bitcoin capacity limits will kick users out of the system
“At worst, things break quite badly, but even at best, even if things don't break, some users won't be able to use Bitcoin, right? They will be kicked out of the system, effectively. There won't be enough capacity to handle them.”
Felten: Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap is changeable by community consensus
“Right now the monetary policy is grow asymptotically to twenty-one million Bitcoins, but that could change by consensus of the community. That twenty-one million limit is not inherent mathematically. It's just a number that is hardwired into the currently used…”
Li Jin: Mental health startup Basis uses unlicensed community coaches as therapists
“So one startup based in San Francisco is called Basis, and they're using unlicensed but trained people in the community to basically serve as therapists.”
Fu: Wireless signals could trigger fatal heart rhythms in cardiac defibrillators
“We discovered we could actually generate our own wireless signals that would trigger this, what is effectively a debugging command to wirelessly induce fatal heart rhythms.”
Chen: AI models predict suicide risk years ahead with over 80% accuracy
“Study one basically looks through electronic health records and based on the data in electronic health records is able to predict people who are likely to commit suicide. And these people might be two or three years away from that event, but they are able to p…”