why aren't all 39 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Wong: Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft will clone OpenClaw in ten months
“My prediction is this within n number of months, less than 10 Entropic, now, now Open Claw become part of OpenAI, so that becomes the OpenAI part of this game. Entropic, Google, Microsoft, Everybody will have their equivalent of open, open call framework.”
Assertion Supported
Freckling: Google shared ad data with sanctioned Russian entity RuTarget
“Google was found to be sharing data with root target, which is actually a sanctioned Russian company, a unit of spare bank that was subject to sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weisbrot predicts individuals must own AI by 2040 to avoid economic subordination.
“You know, there's a good chance that by 2040, if you don't own your own AI, you will be owned by an AI that Google, Facebook, Apple, or Facebook, you know, one of these companies own. Like you basically have 20 years to make your money or you're going to becom…”
Opinion
Weisbrot: Google was built by Asian immigrants, not white men
“Google wasn't built by white men. It was built by Indians and Chinese, wherever people come from. But a lot of them are from Asia, really.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
McGregor: 6G architecture will instantly identify all callers, ending network anonymity
“So the six G architecture, we working with NVIDIA and a lot of these Ericsson, Google show that all calling is known at the instance of calling.”
Assertion Partly supported
Turney: Site With 100% AI Content Drew Millions of Monthly Clicks
“There was a website, AI invest. If you've ever heard of it, they are a hundred percent
AI content. They don't hide it. They have off AI authors on their pages and they skyrocketed. I mean, they were getting millions and millions of clicks per month. And then G…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Narkar: Venture-Backed SaaS Companies Waste Capital on Blind Search Ads
“Many SaaS companies raised money and they just, you know, blindly put it on Google and LinkedIn ads and nothing really worked out for them.”
Opinion
Bilkowski: Google can lose money on AI indefinitely to pressure rivals
“They could lose money on their AI, like basically indefinitely. They could run the clock out on everyone else if they really wanted to, you know, keep pricing pressure on the market and run those other companies out of business because they can fund that type …”
Insight
Jamison: Creators can train LLM recommendations via self-published third-party content
“Cause you know, the LLMs are looking at Google results. We know that you can slowly but surely like train it on what is best and you have control that entire process. It doesn't have to be reliant on actual third party people. It can just be you on third party…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jamison: AI foundation models will be commoditized without monopoly profits
“All of the big tech companies right now that are investing very, very heavily into building their own models. It's just going to be commoditized at the end. And no one really gets that monopoly profits where it's like, you know, a search, like Google got monop…”
What-if
Todd: Promoting Tech Founders to CEO Overnight at Google Would Have Failed
“You know, you didn't take the techies and turn them into the CEO overnight. That was not, that would have been a mistake. Let the techies do their thing.”
Insight
Merola: Startup blog content serves Google SEO over client personal preferences
“A blog has an SEO piece to it, and a lot of times that's the main primary goal of a blog is just to make sure that we're serving Google, as it relates to SEO, organic SEO rankings. That's real. It's not, we're not writing blog articles for you and making sure …”
Insight
Tulla: Startups Rarely Achieve True Large-Scale Impact Compared to Big Tech
“It's very difficult to use the vehicle of entrepreneurship and building a company and really have a true impact in the world around you in a big scale, because the big scale impact is done by the big companies. And for you to found a big company like Google or…”
Opinion
Weisbrot: Google Has Too Many Employees But Excels At Killing Failed Projects
“Google definitely has way too many people, but what they're really good at doing is trying something out and really fast going, you know, this sucks. Let's get rid of it.”
Opinion
Nathan: ChatGPT outperforms Google for nuanced product and service discovery
“I've found myself interestingly using it in place of Google for search on things that Google doesn't do a great job with. So, hey, what are, you know, what are other services that are similar to XYZ, for example, and You know, Google gives you websites that sh…”
Opinion
Bimani: Formal education is not important compared to self-taught knowledge
“Formal education is not important. Knowledge is right. You can go to a four year degree and still come out dumb as a rocks, or you can learn on Google or in YouTube. Like I have reading books and know everything you need to know to get ahead.”
Opinion
Geary: Google Has No Interest in Ranking Five-Page Websites
“Google has no interest in ranking a one page website or a five page website because there's not enough there for Google to chew on to understand that you're the best in the game.”
Insight
Sadan: Humans Are Still Needed to Create Unique, Trustworthy Content Over AI
“So it's not about just adding more content to your website or having AI just spit out more content than adding those. It's really thinking about You know, how do you, how is your content relevant coming from a trust? How is that content trustworthy? Is it uniq…”
Assertion Supported
Sadan: Website Traffic Is Shifting From Google Search to AI Chat Platforms
“Historically, when we talked about SEO of website, of how websites are being found, SEO was kind of equal to Google, but that world is shifting and we're seeing The increase of traffic from some of these chat platforms, because people are now not just going to…”
Opinion
Weisbrot: Google does not know how to do UI/UX management
“And none of it is organized correctly because Google doesn't know how to do UI UX management for shit.”
Insight
Shepherd: Automation killed manual Google ad bidding as a competitive advantage
“It used to be that if you were a more sophisticated bidding person, if you knew how to game the algorithms in Google better than the next person, you could be successful. That's not the case anymore.”
Insight
Adilbaev: Big tech credentials are the best ticket to intro calls
“I think everybody looks at, everybody likes like big names, like I don't know, Google or Meta or
Like some software engineers that like top AI startups or I don't know, some big schools or whatever.
Yeah.
Everybody likes this.
So this is, yeah, I would say the…”
Insight
Sherman: Broad targeting now outperforms granular audience targeting on Meta and Google
“Facebook posts iOS, 14.5 and for privacy concerns, kind of for broad is better in a simple, simple way. You set up campaigns where you're targeting the entire country and optimizing towards conversions. Similar with Google where you used to have pinpoint keywo…”
Opinion
Weisbrot: Big Tech employees are inhumanely stressed or paid to do nothing
“And when you look at the stories that have come out of Google and Facebook and Apple and Amazon, These employees are getting paid incredible packages, but they're either stressed beyond, you know, whatever's fair and humane, or they're doing absolutely nothing…”
Opinion
Vysotsky: ElevenLabs' text-to-speech sounds significantly more realistic than Google or Amazon
“There are some basic services like Google, Amazon, and everything. They all have this text to speech things, but 11 Labs creates a really very, very real sound. It sounds like a human being.”
Insight
Winter: Track page 4-6 search impressions to spot early SEO traction
“If you can see that you have more and more visibility in Google, no clicks. I mean, visibility, so fourth, fifth, sixth page of Google, that means you're getting some traction. And this is something that you can see really quickly in just a week or two because…”
Insight
Bramlett: Email Marketers Must Target 30% Open Rates Post-Apple Changes
“We're shooting for 30% because since the apple thing happened, you gotta be high because if you're at like 20%, that probably means in reality, you had like 10% of people opening, which means your emails are tanking and no one wants to inbox your emails like Y…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Geary: Google Tests Sites by Temporarily Promoting Them to Page One
“If you start to get towards page one, maybe you're on page two, position like 1314, 15, somewhere in there, Google will periodically take your site and just pop it onto page one, like into position five or two or three or whatever. And they'll just watch how p…”
Insight
Geary: Search traffic is the second-highest quality lead source after referrals
“There is no better prospect, except there's only one category of prospect that's better, and that's a referral prospect. So if somebody has used you and somebody's like, dude, do you know anybody that can repair my roof? It's all messed up. I need somebody I c…”
Insight
Geary: Google Ranks Brands Higher If They Have High Branded Search Volume
“It's called brand query searches. So if I have Joe Schmo's roofing company and people are going to Google because maybe I have a billboard, maybe a lot of people are talking about me in the area. They don't know what my website is, but they know my name. And s…”
Opinion
Weisbrot: Google Builds Useless Products Only to Abruptly Cut Them
“Google does a great job of building useless crap and then throws it out there and then suddenly cuts it after they've got, you know, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people using it.”
Disclosure
McGregor: Building safe calling prototype in GSMA Foundry with Google and Ericsson
“We're gonna build a prototype for the world to look at, to test, and the rest of it is live. And I've invited Google And Ericsson, so California, Sweden, to join me in, in the foundry. And the first endeavor is to create, and I'll call it into six G, but now f…”
Insight
Agobin: Google Beat Yahoo by Maintaining Webpage Simplicity
“Google could have done anything once they got the traffic, they could have turned into Yahoo with the crazy webpage and all this stuff, but they stuck with the simplicity. Drove traffic and then found ways to make money from the traffic coming in.”
Assertion Supported
Rizzoli: Frontier AI Labs Spend Heavily on Expert Training Data
“And this is an ongoing effort where OpenAI, Anthropic, Google's teams are paying a lot of money for experts to give the AI their own personal knowledge.”
Assertion Supported
Weisbrot: TikTok ad costs are very low compared to Google
“And the cost of promoting on TikTok is very low compared to Google.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google penalty wiped out 76% of traffic for Company Folders
“We received a manual penalty warning from Google for They called it unnatural links. And we lost a lot of rankings. To give you an idea of what we lost was we ranked number one, number two, and sometimes number three at the top of Google for most of our keywor…”
Insight
Van Eyprin: Successful Entrepreneurs Must Solve Exactly One Core Problem
“And the truth is to really be a successful entrepreneur, you need to find one problem or pain point that you solve for people and go after it. And all the rest of the stuff is just noise.”
Disclosure
Jordan: Narrative spends under $1,000 monthly on Google Ads
“My guess is our monthly spend is probably less than a thousand dollars on, on Google. So it's not nothing, but in the grand scheme of things, it's basically nothing.”
Assertion Supported
Geary: Domain authority is not an official Google metric
“So domain authority is a, it's a, first of all, it's a third party metric. So it's not, there is no official Google metric of domain authority.”