The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 116 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Booth: Breaking Up US Big Tech Would Cede AI Superiority to China
“If Elizabeth Warren or anybody breaks up Amazon or Google or the giant AI companies, or Microsoft for that, that, that, that matter, effectively by doing that, you seed AI superiority to China.”
Jeff Booth Apr 30, 2020 ▶ 46:52 When Will Poor Revolt Against Rich? Is Unemployment Good? Currency Pegged To Bitcoin with Jeff Booth
Opinion
Lewis: Amazon copies and sells every profitable third-party vendor product
“There's basically no vendor who's worked with Amazon that hasn't been screwed over by them. If Amazon finds a product that is making good money, they copy it and they sell it themselves.”
Michael Lewis Sep 26, 2020 ▶ 22:13 MyCroft Raises $5m to Ship Home Speaker Echo Competitor That Doesnt' Suck In Data
Opinion
Latka: Consumers do not care about privacy if given enough value
“Like if you deliver enough value, people don't care about privacy in my opinion.”
Nathan Latka Sep 26, 2020 ▶ 20:20 MyCroft Raises $5m to Ship Home Speaker Echo Competitor That Doesnt' Suck In Data
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friend: Amazon is unlikely to drop S3 prices against Wasabi
“For Amazon to simply drop price, they could do it, but unlike diapers, you know, storage is a multi-billion dollar product for Amazon, and it just seems unlikely to me that they're going to do that.”
David Friend May 19, 2020 ▶ 5:55 1760 $20m To Build MVP: Does Carbonite Founder Have Another Billion Dollar Idea?
Insight
Yaman: Competing with Walmart and Amazon requires $2 billion and 10 years
“Don't try to compete with Walmart, Amazon, and Costco. That's, or if you're going to do that, you need to put Two billion dollars on the balance sheet and you need to make that like a 10 year journey.”
Jared Gaiman Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 5:16 From $187M Ecommerce to $5M ARR SaaS: Spresso's Post-Bankruptcy Pivot to Enterprise Software | Jared Yaman
Insight
Yampolskiy: SecurityScorecard's Worst Hires Were Polished Amazon and Google Execs
“My worst hires were polished executives with Amazon, Google. They would come in, I start micromanaging, they would tell me, I'm a terrible CEO. And then I leave them alone for three months, and they fuck everything up. And then I have to fire them, and I get m…”
Alex Yampolskiy Jan 7, 2025 ▶ 12:13 3 Strategies I Used To Scale SecurityScorecard to $70M ARR, 1,700 Customers, & $200M in Cash
Insight
Amit RG: Product automation should resolve 95% of enterprise support tickets
“They need to do what Uber has done. They need to do what Amazon has done. They need to get to a stage where the product handles. 95% of the issues and only five percent come to them. When the issue is only five percent, then these people will not be somewhere …”
Amit RG Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 14:22 How he hit $2m ARR in 24 months for Ecommerce Support SaaaS, Raised at $20m valuation
Insight
Medina: Public equity allows SaaS companies to cap base salaries
“I want to do what Amazon is doing, which is they pay their salaries fairly, they're fairly low, but the, each employee is capturing the entire upside of their execution because of the market reward. You see what I mean? Exactly. It's a beautiful position to be…”
Manny Medina Mar 21, 2022 ▶ 4:34 Look Back: Can Outreach beat Vista Backed Salesloft?
Insight
Lenski: Profitable e-commerce products must be discovered supplier-first
“If you want to find a good product to sell in e-commerce, you need to find it supplier first, right? One that's not yet being sold on Amazon, one that's yet not being dropshipped”
Jacob Lenski Aug 14, 2021 ▶ 11:36 20 Year Old Sells $15k Lanyards, Now Ecomm Research Tool
Assertion Supported
Amazon ruthlessly cloned Square's card reader and undercut its price
“Amazon came after us in a way that was terrifying. They copied our product, they undercut our price, and they added the Amazon brand name to that, along with some customer support that we at the time didn't have.”
Jim McKelvey Apr 5, 2021 ▶ 32:42 Billionaire Co-Founder of Square Joins Latka
Insight
Brands need their own media channels to survive Amazon competition
“Everyone needs to be a media company. Brands need to have their own, like, Media. They need to control it. They need brand safety. They need to be able to tell their story. Consumer product brands right now are like, they're having so many problems. They're ev…”
Donna Valario Feb 3, 2021 ▶ 11:28 MediaMash Raising $1.5m So You Can Own Your Audience
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Amazon will build the world's largest parcel carrier, preventing new entrants
“I don't personally think we're going to see another parcel carrier. Parcel would be like FedEx UPS start ground up like ever. I think what we'll see is, is Amazon come in and build the largest parcel carrier in the world, sort of from the side door or top down…”
Oren Zaslansky Jan 1, 2021 ▶ 18:10 FlockFreight Grows 400% YoY, 500k Pallets Shipped, Still Shy of $1b Valuation
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Greenberg: Algopix is the only provider of multi-marketplace transactional market share data
“We're actually the only ones who provide market share insights into sales that occur on amazon.com as well as Walmart, eBay, Google Shopping, etc. There are other players that do only one of these platforms, usually it's Amazon, and they're basing their data o…”
Ori Greenberg Dec 18, 2020 ▶ 2:08 AlgoPix Hits $2.4m Revenue Helping CPG Brands Monitor Competitors Pricing
Assertion Supported
Lewis: 30% of prospective smart speaker buyers abstain over privacy
“The 30% of the people who are interested in buying a smart speaker have not done so because of privacy concerns.”
Michael Lewis Sep 26, 2020 ▶ 17:06 MyCroft Raises $5m to Ship Home Speaker Echo Competitor That Doesnt' Suck In Data
Insight
Arnott: Amazon's A9 algorithm rewards keyword stuffing despite official best practices
“The Amazon A nine algorithm is similar to Google was like five years ago. So they're kind of behind the curb. So keyword stuffing is, you know, even though they tell you know, best practice not to do it we've seen over and over again that the companies that ar…”
Andy Arnott Jun 18, 2020 ▶ 4:24 SellerSEO Gets Booted From Stripe, Now Rebounding and Bootstrapped
Insight
Arnott: Amazon product sourcing tools rely on guesswork due to hidden data
“But we've seen a huge Problem with that, because the data skewed, it's all based on algorithm, and so it's guessing, because Amazon doesn't release that data, right?”
Andy Arnott Jun 18, 2020 ▶ 2:44 SellerSEO Gets Booted From Stripe, Now Rebounding and Bootstrapped
Opinion
The Amazon-to-eBay retail arbitrage market is heavily saturated and exhausted
“Amazon to eBay, it's definitely kind of exhausted. There's a lot of sellers doing it.”
Max Kolysh Feb 17, 2019 ▶ 18:15 1303 Ebay to Amazon Dropshipping Arbitrage CEO Makes $5.4M
Insight
Smith: Major tech incumbents are currently out-executing agile startups
“What's happening in tech is you're watching for the first time ever the biggest companies execute better than the smaller companies in a lot of different ways with Amazon and everything else where we haven't seen this kind of juice since probably the Microsoft…”
Ryan Smith Feb 10, 2018 ▶ 26:03 931 Qualtrics "Well Past" $250m in ARR, When Will The Go Public?
Opinion
Huynh questions why Google, Amazon, and Samsung invest in smart homes
“So we don't really see the value in the smart home space, and we still don't understand why Google and Amazon and Samsung are still working in the smart home space.”
Dewey Huynh Jun 25, 2017 ▶ 7:09 701: Smart Desk King Sells $10,000,000+
Opinion
Cameron: AWS customers are 'SOL' for direct technical support
“You know, if you're running on Amazon and you do need help, You're kind of SOL in a lot of ways. So, so that's a great benefit.”
Lily Cameron Aug 1, 2016 ▶ 12:48 EP 373: $1m+ On Green Contracting Company and Tech Executive
Insight
Moran: Amazon sales do not create real customers without direct capture
“And taking a sale on Amazon is neither of those. It's taking a sale. It's not taking a customer. When you buy from Amazon, you don't really know who you bought from. You just bought from Amazon, right? Who says, oh, I bought this thing from this company. No, y…”
Ryan Moran Jan 23, 2016 ▶ 3:04 How To Launch Your First Conference with Ryan Moran of Freedom Fast Lane: Financial Freedom, Personal Growth, and Extraordinary Living
Disclosure
Moran: Packaging inserts capture Amazon buyer data for external marketing funnels
“The most Simple way would you can put things in your packaging in order to draw attention to other, other websites or other squeeze pages. And that's one of the things we focus on.”
Ryan Moran Jan 23, 2016 ▶ 8:22 How To Launch Your First Conference with Ryan Moran of Freedom Fast Lane: Financial Freedom, Personal Growth, and Extraordinary Living
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yaman: A top-20 global retailer chose Spresso over Amazon and Rakuten
“We have a retailer, top-twenty retailer in the world. They looked at everything. They looked at using Amazon, Rakuten, local providers, in-house solution, and they chose the espresso solution because they did see that it's a superior software platform”
Jared Gaiman Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 15:23 From $187M Ecommerce to $5M ARR SaaS: Spresso's Post-Bankruptcy Pivot to Enterprise Software | Jared Yaman
What-if
Venture Funding Would Have Prevented Backblaze From Building Custom Hardware
“If we had raised a whole bunch of venture funding, we probably would have done it and said, we'll figure it out later. Somehow we'll figure out how to make the math work. But we didn't have any money. So we had to start from first principles and figure out how…”
Gleb Budman Oct 5, 2023 ▶ 5:24 How We Bootstrapped Backblaze from $0 to IPO and $87m in ARR
Disclosure
Timebolt pays $7 monthly for AWS because processing is handled client-side
“Because we're a downloadable software, it actually sits right there on your computer. So your pot, your computer is what's powering all the algorithms. So, you know, we pay maybe seven bucks a month to Amazon. You know, for the server, just for actually downlo…”
Doug Wolf Jan 16, 2023 ▶ 6:43 Bootstrapped team of 2 hits $15k in MRR for video editing tool
Disclosure
Campbell: ProfitWell used Amazon's backloaded 10/20/30/40 equity vesting for employees
“We actually have profitable. The one thing that we did is we did like backward bending vesting. So it was 10, 20, 3040. It's kind of like how Amazon used to do it. So like you only get a 10% of your shares allocated shares when you get over that one year cliff…”
Patrick Campbell Jun 27, 2022 ▶ 21:51 Details of $20m Revenue Profitwell and $55m Revenue Paddle Deal and what led to the $200m Acquisition
Insight
Hyman: Training hiring models on CVs and incumbents amplifies bias
“When you're hiring off your incumbents, you risk amplifying existing biases, and secondly, when you're using CV data, you're very likely to amplify existing biases.”
Barb Hyman May 28, 2022 ▶ 4:15 She Hit $6m Bootstrapped for HR Tool, Will Place 200,000 Candidates This Year
Assertion Supported
MedStack differentiates from hyperscalers with enforced, mandatory security defaults
“This is what really differentiates us from, like, an Amazon or an Azure is, you know, for MedStack, firewalls are on by default, and our customers can't turn them off. We encrypt all incoming communications. By default, you can't turn it off. We back up everyt…”
Simon Woodside Dec 21, 2021 ▶ 13:07 MedStack Grows 300% TTM, Raises $3.2m Seed at $15m Valuation
Assertion Supported
Amazon conceded to Square by mailing Square readers to Amazon customers
“What they did was they said, the best thing for our customers is to make them Square customers. So they mailed all their soon to be former customers, one of our Square readers, and said, look, if you like what Amazon is doing, you'll be happy with Square. So t…”
Jim McKelvey Apr 5, 2021 ▶ 34:49 Billionaire Co-Founder of Square Joins Latka
Disclosure
Spiffy employs service technicians directly, rejecting Uber's 1099 marketplace model
“Unlike Uber where it's a 10 99 marketplace our, we decided early on to take a page from Amazon's playbook. And these are our employees.”
Scott Wingo Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 4:17 GetSpiffy Hits $20m Run Rate Cleaning 30,000 Cars Per Month, Oil Changes and More Next!
Assertion Supported
Only 4% of Six Million Amazon Resellers Exceed $100k Annual Revenue
“And there are last count that I've heard six million odd Amazon resellers, but only four percent of those Amazon resellers, Nathan ever exceed a 100,000 dollars a year in revenue.”
Trent Dyrsmid Oct 29, 2020 ▶ 13:02 Flowster Hits $10k MRR After eCommerce Brand Hits $3.1m In Amazon Sales
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dyrsmid Predicts More Brands Will Directly Operate Amazon Seller Accounts
“There's a trend in the Amazon marketplace. And that trend is this, the manufacturers of these goods, brand owners, more of them are wanting more control over the Amazon channel. So that means. That they're going to start opening their own Amazon seller central…”
Trent Dyrsmid Oct 29, 2020 ▶ 15:06 Flowster Hits $10k MRR After eCommerce Brand Hits $3.1m In Amazon Sales
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Arnott: Amazon PPC costs surged as platform reduced organic traffic
“In the last couple of months, there's been a huge shift on Amazon. They're driving less organic, more paid, and so the cost per click on the Amazon PPC platform is astronomical.”
Andy Arnott Jun 18, 2020 ▶ 2:53 SellerSEO Gets Booted From Stripe, Now Rebounding and Bootstrapped
Insight
Dane Maxwell says beginner entrepreneurs obsess over mechanisms, not customer outcomes
“The fundamentals of a business, as you know, as many know, is a customer that uses a mechanism to get a result. That's really a business in a nutshell. A customer that uses a mechanism to get a result. New people that are looking to start a business obsess abo…”
Dane Maxwell Jun 3, 2020 ▶ 14:25 11 SaaS Companies, Dane Takes Paperless Pipeline to $2m Revenues, Launches Start From Zero Framework
Assertion Supported
Booth: Over 60% of AI Investment Comes from Tech Monopolies
“I think it's over 60% of the dollars invested in AI are coming from the monopoly companies.”
Jeff Booth Apr 30, 2020 ▶ 45:28 When Will Poor Revolt Against Rich? Is Unemployment Good? Currency Pegged To Bitcoin with Jeff Booth
Opinion
FarmRaiser founder claims platform can beat Amazon on marketplace flaws
“Of course I'm following Bezos cause he's going to be my new neighbor and much of what they did in their marketplace we like, and much of it that we don't like, we think we can beat them at.”
Mark Abbott Apr 2, 2020 ▶ 14:04 1713 Is this a better way for schools to fundraise?
Insight
Traditional Retail Merchandising Fails on Algorithmic Platforms Like Amazon
“The age old techniques that you as a consumer brand used to use to work with brick and mortar retailers like Target or Kroger just does not work. You need a machine to work with a machine called Amazon”
Guru Hariharan Oct 6, 2019 ▶ 2:44 1534 With $10m in ARR, He Left Amazon to Help F100 Brands Sell More on Amazon
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amazon employs hundreds of people globally just on one-click checkout
“Amazon's got hundreds of people that are focusing on one-click checkouts globally, and that's the checkout part.”
Ralph Dangelmaier Sep 22, 2019 ▶ 13:11 1520 BlueSnap Wants to Help Merchants Compete with Amazon
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kolysh believes Zinc is a top-two scraper of Amazon
“We are probably like the number one or number Two scraper of Amazon and all these other sites.”
Max Kolysh Feb 17, 2019 ▶ 16:26 1303 Ebay to Amazon Dropshipping Arbitrage CEO Makes $5.4M
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zinc holds under 15% of the Amazon-to-eBay arbitrage software market
“In terms of the market, we probably have less than 15% of it in terms of Amazon to eBay.”
Max Kolysh Feb 17, 2019 ▶ 18:22 1303 Ebay to Amazon Dropshipping Arbitrage CEO Makes $5.4M
Disclosure
Lee: ProsperWorks is not for sale to Amazon for a quick flip
“I, no. Not, I would not sell the Amazon. This is a massive market. I built this company to help bring prosperity to the world, to usher in the relationship era. And I've built and sold three companies in the past. To me, I'm not looking for another flip. I'm l…”
John Lee Nov 25, 2018 ▶ 19:06 1219 Will Prosperworks and it's 10,000 Paying Customers Win CRM Wars?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cloudability processes 11% of total AWS revenue
“We have 11% of Amazon's revenue going through our system, and a fairly large amount of the other two big clouds going through our system.”
Matt Ellis Nov 21, 2018 ▶ 6:07 1215 Cloudability CEO: We're Past $20m in ARR, 11% of Total AWS Spend
Assertion Supported
Budman: Backblaze Storage Costs One-Quarter of AWS and Google
“And so we actually introduced a, an offering where you can use storage for anything, similar to an Amazon or Google or a Microsoft offering, but one quarter of their price point.”
Gleb Budman Nov 10, 2018 ▶ 3:17 1204 $30m ARR Cloud Backup Company Almost Bankrupt from Thailand Floods
Insight
Kilkka: Power tools created the best arbitrage opportunity due to model consistency
“So with tower tools, you've got great model numbers. It's very consistent. You have like dozens of very high quality sellers on eBay. You have customers who typically are more like power buyers, you know, they, it's not their first power tool they've ever owne…”
Alex Kilkka Oct 13, 2018 ▶ 9:19 1176 How this Developer Made $250k+ Selling Powertools He Didn't Own Via Amazon Ebay Arbitrage
Disclosure
Montgomery: Mycroft Targets Any Business Competing with Apple, Amazon, or Google
“So we want our target is any business that views Apple, Amazon, and Google as a potential competitor. And given that Google's making self-driving cars and Amazon is launching spaceships, that's a really broad category of businesses.”
Josh Montgomery Oct 1, 2018 ▶ 12:53 1164 Want Your Own Alexa, Without Amazon Influence? Mycroft Raises $8m For Opensource Voice Stack
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amazon receives no data or operational learnings from Convoy
“Yeah, I can't comment on Amazon's plans, but it's certainly not the case where they're learning or getting data from Convoy. There's no relationship like that.”
Dan Lewis Sep 27, 2018 ▶ 15:21 1160 Convoy, The Uber for Trucking, Charges Avg $4/mile on 100 mile trip, Takes Less Than 20% Per Unit Shipped
Disclosure
Nick Weaver says Eero cannot subsidize hardware at cost like Amazon
“Yeah, I mean, we're ensuring that this is a very real business. And, you know, unlike an Amazon, we don't have a incredibly, you know cashflow positive retail business or even more positive cloud business.”
Nick Weaver Sep 12, 2018 ▶ 16:10 1145 How Eero is Locking Down Distribution Channel for "Home Automation Wars" With $100m
Disclosure
Outreach banned PowerPoint in favor of Amazon-style long-form written documents
“I took this habit from Amazon in which I only accept long form documents. I don't do PowerPoints.”
Manny Medina Sep 3, 2018 ▶ 25:57 1136 Outreach.io CEO: "We'll hit $10m/quarter in 2018" with focus on ARPU expansion
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