The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,713 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
McCord: Government AI predictive maintenance claims are largely 'false goods'
“On the government side specifically, I think there's been a lot of like false goods that have been sold, predictive maintenance, prognostic, you know, type things that when you actually get down to it, like the data, the telemetry and the sensor data and the l…”
Nucleus software analyzes embryo DNA to predict IQ, cancer risk, and traits
“So usually parents have a couple viable embryos, and now they can actually take the raw DNA files of them, upload to Nucleus, and we'll give you analysis on everything from cancers, to IQ, to eye color, to hair color, to schizophrenia risk.”
Sadeghi: Falling IVF and sequencing costs will create genetically optimized children
“And so you're going to see the rapid decrease in cost of IVF combined with the rapid decrease in cost of sequencing A genome. These things are going to converge together to enable this just, this massive, massive new generation of parents having genetically op…”
Sadeghi: Future reproductive genomics platforms will both sequence and edit DNA
“Because eventually, you're not just going to be sequencing and analyzing DNA, You'll also probably be editing it as well.”
Sadeghi: The medical distinction between genetic diseases and traits is arbitrary
“From our perspective as a company, there's really no difference between diseases and traits. It's a false line in the sand that was drawn.”
Sharky predicts AI tooling will eliminate junior engineer roles in big tech
“I don't think there's a world really for junior engineers at big organizations.”
Whop intentionally built no rollback plan for its zero-downtime database migration
“I had so many people ask me, like, what the rollback plan was, and I'm like, there is no rollback plan. Like, you know, we're not gonna spend an extra eight weeks building a rollback plan. We're just gonna do it well. And nail it the first time.”
Whop CTO kicked engineers out of standup for lacking personal Whop projects
“So first off, that is a true story. I got a lot of hate in the comments, people thinking that was rage bait. You had 300 comments. That is a true story. And I will show you the message. I actually told people that”
Peters: Consumers will disintermediate traditional healthcare using AI pocket doctors
“In the limit, we think every person in America, and frankly the world, will have an AI doctor in their pocket, and consumers will fully disintermediate the existing healthcare system as it stands.”
Forty-seven of the top fifty defense startups will fail within fifteen years
“A significant number of the logos that are talked about today and the, you know, sort of top 50 in this field. You know, 47 of those are going to be companies that are completely irrelevant. Yeah. 15 years from today.”
Only Anduril, Palantir, and SpaceX have delivered defense tech at scale
“Other than those three, there isn't really, like, a, like, unicorn VC-backed company that, like, has actually delivered things at scale for the Warfighter that doesn't really exist.”
Garrett: Defense tech is currently overrated in venture capital
“What's, what's overrated? And I would say it was overrated actually is defense tech.”
Mansoor: Prediction markets could become bigger than the stock market
“I think it could just look like the stock market, maybe even bigger.”
McCormick: Most fast-growing AI software startups will flatten and fail to IPO
“By choosing to, like, not play in this space, I'm definitely missing a trillion dollar company or two, but I think for the most part, like, I think there's gonna be, like, a lot of these types of things happening, or even, like, these types of curves, where th…”
McCormick: AI will become 'super SaaS' rather than godlike AGI
“I called it super sass in, in that like 20, 25 prediction. And I think it is like, I think it's really amazing and like in no way godlike. And it's just like, I feel like I'm being psyopped whenever people are like, oh my God, this is like, this is, this chang…”
El-Baba: AI-era startups will not need billions before going public
“No long gone are the days where you're going to have to raise Billions of dollars before you go public. 15 years down the road, you actually can follow the Viva capital efficiency story and build a really great company that can drive a really strong venture ou…”
Ritter: Almost no dollar price is too high to beat China
“The national security part, we should put in I, it's one person's opinion, but we need to make sure we win this race against against China in particular. And I, there almost no dollar price is wrong in that using that lens”
Lucy Guo: Passes Creators Conceal Earnings From Managers to Dodge 20% Cut
“We definitely have had an issue where creators didn't want to tell their managers or their agents how much they're earning on passes because they would have to pay 20% to them even though they weren't even involved in passes. Yeah, like, we have had creators t…”
Socher: AI search competitors fake citations and prioritize marketing over accuracy
“And when we do a lot of comparisons to the competition, usually the competition spends much more money on marketing and design and less on accuracy of the technology and accuracy of the answers and even the citations. A lot of folks just Fake their citations a…”
Socher: You.com invented RAG at web scale before the term existed
“We realized just like with rag where we had invented rag already, we're doing it at a web scale, but it wasn't yet a term.”
Genuine AGI safety concerns are 10 to 20 years away
“I think this is likely what we're doing with AI and AI safety and stuff like that, that we could foresee in 1020 years AGI, where there's actual safety issues, but we are so far from that today. That's, I think, actually getting close to the peak of inflated e…”
Sadeghi: Scientific research already links genetics directly to intelligence
“At the frontier of science, we do already have associations with genetics and intelligence, and we really believe in giving these insights to customers.”
Mark Suster argues Series A is VC's most overvalued funding round
“And so I think that a round is the single most overvalued round in venture capital.”
Asparouhov is skeptical of non-pharma microgravity manufacturing startups
“There have been a couple of companies come up, starting to try to tackle non-pharmaceutical product areas in, you know, microgravity manufacturing. And to me, I just find it quite confusing because they always phrase it as like, well, Varda is going to go to t…”
'Gundo bro' culture is off-putting to women and limits talent pools
“I find some of the, like, you know, sort of you know, gundo bros or gundo boys, you know, culture you know, a bit off-putting to, you know, people that are not of the male gender, and it's something that I've, you know, heard validated, you know, sort of acros…”
Asparouhov: Western Europe will resemble a second-world region in ten years
“Still you continue to extrapolate that trend for another 10 years. And like Western Europe is going to look like a second world country while Eastern Europe actually just sort of rises to the top.”
Weisburd: Money managers sell diversification to increase fees and importance
“Essentially, money managers sell diversification as a way to increase their own importance and also to increase fees, some would argue.”
Weisburd sells his positions when SoftBank invests in his portfolio companies
“As a general rule, when SoftBank would invest in one of my companies, I would sell my position or a lot of the position.”
Kolicich: Expect an AI crash and market retrenchment within two years
“I believe in two years where everyone's gonna say, oh, you know, we thought it would solve everything and it's all a very limited number of use cases. It's complete hype. And, you know, we'll probably see a bit of a crash and we'll see a retrenchment in AI.”
Kolicich: Open-source AI iteration speed will surpass closed source
“Cause you'll see the case of iteration at open source is going to eclipse close source.”
Mavrookas: China outbuilds the United States in shipbuilding 230 to one
“China outbuilds the US 230 to one.”
Mavrookas: Saronic will save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars
“What we're building at Cerronek will not only provide more capabilities faster, but it'll save the taxpayer hundreds of billions of dollars by driving down costs as well.”
Mavrookas: Naval power is determined by vessel quantity, not exquisite design
“And if you go back in history and you look at even just back to World War II, what has typically just determined naval power is who can build the most ships. It's not who can build the most exquisite, the most expensive, whose ships have the most on them in te…”
Mavrookas: China built over 1,000 commercial ships in 2024 versus five in the US
“They built over a thousand commercial ships last year, and the United States built five. I think this was 20, 24. Five. Like one, two, three, four, Five. Large, ocean-going commercial vessels.”
Mavrookas: South Korean and Japanese shipbuilders source modules and labor from China
“Our allies, South Korea and Japan, the next two largest shipbuilders in the world, they're actually, on the commercial side, they're actually getting a lot of their modules from China. They're getting a lot of their labor from China.”
Busch: Workers who can't change tires should be able to build ships
“There's no reason somebody who can't change a tire shouldn't be able to go and build a Corsair, or work on a Marauder, or work on a larger ship.”
Busch: Hard tech manufacturing is the future moat as AI commoditizes software
“Yeah, Molly, my hottest take is I really do think that we're re-entering kind of the world of the here and the now, and what I mean by that is I think being successful in real space, doing hard tech, building real things, and manufacturing with real tangible i…”
Mavrookas: Five to ten new defense primes will scale within a decade
“I think over the next five to 10 years, I'll answer, I won't dodge the question completely. I think there will be somewhere, but around five to 10. I think you'll see five to 10 really, like, big impactful companies scale over the next five to 10 years, and ho…”
Mavrookas: Industrial volume, not exquisite design, determines naval power
“What has typically just determined naval power is who can build the
The most ships. It's not who can build the most exquisite, the most expensive, whose ships have the most on them in terms of payloads and weapons and all the other things. It's like, who can j…”
Mavrookas: China launches ~30 warships annually versus 5 to 10 US ships
“We being the U.S. Launch about five to 10 military, meaning destroyer, cruiser, aircraft carrier, like straight naval vessel warship. China's probably doing about 30, so six to one, seven to one, somewhere in there.”
Mavrookas: Port Alpha will create 10,000 jobs and $160B economic impact
“So what we're going to do at Port Alpha, you mentioned 10 years, over the next 10 years, we're going to create 10,000 jobs. We're going to invest billions of dollars. I mean, we're going to have a hundred and sixty billion dollar economic impact in Brownsville…”
Mavrookas: US shipbuilding capacity currently sits at 100,000 gross tons
“That's our initial build out that 1.5 X's the United States shipbuilding capacity right now, which sits at a 100,000 gross tons.”
Mavrookas: Saronic achieved first ever autonomous combat search and rescue
“Take the Apache pilot rescue, for example, that was the first ever combat search and rescue done with an autonomous system.”
Mavrookas: All-electric vessels cannot meet military range or payload needs
“What we learned from all-electric is you just don't get the range and the payload capacity. That the military is looking for.”
Mendler: Comms customers need more reliability than a SpaceX architecture offers
“They are, they're monetizing bits and the customers that are buying their bits are the ones that need more reliability and flexibility than maybe like SpaceX driven architecture.”
Mendler: Northwood achieves space-grade performance using standard cellular components
“We've been able to like actually make space grade performance out of Standard high volume cellular components.”
Beck: Future space giants will integrate rockets, satellites, and downstream apps
“Like, the big space companies of the future are gonna all look a little bit the same. They're gonna have their own rocket, because access to space is key. They're gonna have their own ability to build as many satellites as they need, and they're all gonna have…”