United States

also referred to as: the us · u s · us

110 statements across 48 episodes · 39 bullish · 50 bearish · 43 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2024 by Delian Asparouhov · said 1,439 times in 166 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Molly O'Shea (480), David Friedberg (60), Keller Rinaudo Cliffton (39), Scott Nolan (27), Chris Power (26), Brian Schimpf (25), Brian Armstrong (25), David Ulevitch (23)

tap a year for its mentions
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04080202420252026episodes it came up in
005401080202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 584 mentions in 77 episodes 8 per episode
2025 688 mentions in 69 episodes 10 per episode
2024 167 mentions in 20 episodes 8 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about United States, oldest first

Mar 15, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Asparouhov: Varda landed the first commercial reentry capsule on US soil
“I, I'm proud to say that, you know, we started the company that basically landed the first ever commercial reentry capsule, you know, on a U S soil. With also a new regulatory regime used at part four 50 with the FAA.”
Delian Asparouhov Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 8:34 Varda's Landing, Peter Thiel, & the Future of El Segundo, Delian Asparouhov, Founders Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Mar 29, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2054
Power: Global reserve currency status will flip in 20-30 years
“We are 20 or 30 years away from the reserve currency flipping, which happens roughly every a 120 years.”
Chris Power Mar 29, 2024 ▶ 27:08 Get Tesla Big | Chris Power, Hadrian · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 19, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Sundblad: Oden relocated to US in 2015 due to European cloud resistance
“And then we went to a trade show in Germany and I'm probably going to make a lot of Germans angry now, but that's fine. But this was in like, 2014, 15. And we told them, you know, them what we're going to do. And they just shook their head and said, like, you'…”
Willem Sundblad Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 35:56 Embracing American Dynamism to Upgrade Manufacturing Production With Oden CEO Willem Sundblad · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
May 3, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim: U.S. may lose default destination status for global tech talent
“Like, it is not necessarily going to be the case that the US continues to be the default destination when every other country is now catching up.”
Minn Kim May 3, 2024 ▶ 11:30 Silicon Valley's Best Kept Secret for Skilled Immigration | Minn Kim, Founder of Lighthouse · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
May 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Kim: US Bureaucracy Blocks Global Tech Talent From Entering or Staying
“And we have this singularly bureaucratic process that keeps them from being able to either come or stay.”
Minn Kim May 3, 2024 ▶ 6:39 Silicon Valley's Best Kept Secret for Skilled Immigration | Minn Kim, Founder of Lighthouse · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
May 3, 2024
Assertion Supported
The U.S. hit its 65,000 H-1B visa annual cap by 1997
“In 1990, we said, okay, we will allow 65,000 of them a year. And the trouble is that there are many, many more people. There's like over demand than there is supply. And so the cap, which is 65,000 H one B's every year in. 1997, if I remember correctly, basica…”
Minn Kim May 3, 2024 ▶ 8:29 Silicon Valley's Best Kept Secret for Skilled Immigration | Minn Kim, Founder of Lighthouse · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
May 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Kim: US Will Lose Long-Term by Restricting High-Skilled Immigration
“If we rest on our laurels, I am a strong believer and advocate that you lose in the long run because you just have atrophied in the culture and in what we stand for.”
Minn Kim May 3, 2024 ▶ 7:07 Silicon Valley's Best Kept Secret for Skilled Immigration | Minn Kim, Founder of Lighthouse · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
May 3, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Over 780,000 applicants registered for just 65,000 U.S. H-1B visas last year
“And so you think about last year, same 65,000 spots, 780,000 people registered.”
Minn Kim May 3, 2024 ▶ 9:07 Silicon Valley's Best Kept Secret for Skilled Immigration | Minn Kim, Founder of Lighthouse · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
May 31, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
US gigawatt-scale nuclear reactors are derived from a 1950s design
“And that's why today we have, I think the number is about 93 operating gigawatt scale light water reactors. They're all based on that one design from that moment in time, way back when.”
Doug Bernauer May 31, 2024 ▶ 17:12 Radiant CEO Doug Bernauer on Portable Nuclear Microreactors & the Future of Clean Energy · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
May 31, 2024 negative
Assertion Contradicted
No new nuclear reactor design has been fueled in 50 years
“There's no new nuclear design that has been fueled in the U S in the last 50 years.”
Doug Bernauer May 31, 2024 ▶ 20:49 Radiant CEO Doug Bernauer on Portable Nuclear Microreactors & the Future of Clean Energy · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Sep 20, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Northzone splits capital evenly between US and Europe with slight Europe tilt
“We're pretty evenly split between U S and Europe with maybe a slight a slight emphasis on Europe from a percentage dollars standpoint.”
Molly Alter Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 26:38 Molly Alter, Partner (Northzone), $4B AUM | Software for Hardware, EU vs USA, Vertical AI, VC Biases · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Sep 20, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Northzone led Spring Health Series A based on Scandinavian mental health trends
“In Scandinavia, mental health was actually a thing long before it was in the U S they're so progressive over there. And so people were taking care of their mental health and it was destigmatized. Whereas in the United States, it was still kind of, this is, you…”
Molly Alter Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 26:53 Molly Alter, Partner (Northzone), $4B AUM | Software for Hardware, EU vs USA, Vertical AI, VC Biases · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 4, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sam D'Amico: Induction stoves and EV chargers each draw 40-60 amps
“A typical home in the United States has about 200 amps of like circuit capacity available and a induction stove and a EV charger use about the same amount, like about 60 or 40 to 60, depending on model and configuration”
Sam D'Amico Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 13:16 Impulse Labs, Trojan Horse for Battery-Powered Homes | Backed by Lux Capital · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Mar 21, 2025 positive
Insight
Garrett: European breakout startups face fewer venture-backed clones than US winners
“When you build a winner, you don't have what you have in the U S which is like, once there's a large, massive winner and outcome in the U S there's like 20 startups that get funded to go compete. Right. And Europe, it's not like that. The capital market is not…”
Christian Garrett Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 59:49 SpaceX, Stripe, Ramp, Anduril: Navigating Liquidity in Private Markets · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Base claims it will be America's fastest battery developer by summer 2025
“By the summer we'll be deploying at twice the rate. So we'll be the fastest battery developer in the country in, in, in the next, you know, three months.”
Zach Schendel Apr 9, 2025 ▶ 45:13 Base Power's $200M Series B | Co-Led by Lee Fixel, A16Z, Lightspeed, & Valor Equity Partners · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 22, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Jacob Peters: 8,000 chemicals in US food supply do not exist in Europe
“8000 chemicals exist in the U.S. Food supply. Jacob Peters: That don't exist in Europe.”
Jacob Peters Apr 22, 2025 ▶ 31:02 Superpower Raises $30M Series A Led by Forerunner · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 22, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Peters: Nearly 85% of US health system revenue comes from drugs and surgery
“In America, close to 85% of health system revenue comes from two sources. Do you know what those are? Tell us. Pharmaceuticals and surgery.”
Jacob Peters Apr 22, 2025 ▶ 22:06 Superpower Raises $30M Series A Led by Forerunner · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jun 20, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
The US unemployment rate will remain around 4% in 2030
“Probably like, fucking four percent. Like, things will revert back to the mean all. Like, humans will always find new jobs except for the four percent of people that just don't want to work.”
Roy Lee Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 52:29 Cluely Raises $15 Million From a16z | Roy Lee, Founder & CEO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 18, 2025 positive
Insight
Power: Rebuilding U.S. manufacturing requires a decade of sustained policy
“I also think it's going to take a decade of sustained policy to go do it properly. So it has to survive multiple terms of the sustained tariff or subsidy policy to really reinvigorate it.”
Chris Power Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 26:43 Inside Hadrian's $260M Series C to Advance Manufacturing in America · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 18, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Power: The US lacks the capability to produce munitions rapidly
“As well as in the munitions categories where there's not much innovation to be done, but you just need to be able to produce a lot very fast, and we just don't have that capability in the U.S. Anymore.”
Chris Power Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 7:51 Inside Hadrian's $260M Series C to Advance Manufacturing in America · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 18, 2025 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Power: China built 1,700 vessels last year versus five by the US
“I mean, we're talking about like a quantum shipbuilding of like, I think it's 1700 last year of commercial and military vessels versus five.”
Chris Power Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 19:35 Inside Hadrian's $260M Series C to Advance Manufacturing in America · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 18, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Power: Hadrian is the only US company generating advanced manufacturing training data
“So we're the only company that's actually generating labeled data that you can then train models around for advanced manufacturing in the US.”
Chris Power Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 24:03 Inside Hadrian's $260M Series C to Advance Manufacturing in America · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 18, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Power: The US no longer manufactures antibiotics domestically
“We don't really make antibiotics onshore in the US anymore.”
Chris Power Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 10:16 Inside Hadrian's $260M Series C to Advance Manufacturing in America · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 18, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Power: US has 30,000 small manufacturers unsupported by tech for decades
“There are 30,000 small manufacturing businesses in the US that are super important, even in things like making steel that have been completely unsupported by technology, including AI for decades.”
Chris Power Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 21:03 Inside Hadrian's $260M Series C to Advance Manufacturing in America · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2042
Power: Demographic decline will pressure Xi Jinping to act before 2037-2042
“We just have to last till about 2037, 20 42, and then kind of overnight China's working population will cut in half, and then they can try again in another thousand years. So that will put a lot of pressure in our opinion on Xi to actually do something, becaus…”
Chris Power Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 17:23 Inside Hadrian's $260M Series C to Advance Manufacturing in America · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 22, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Little: China Outproduces US Warships by 20-30 to 6-8 Annually
“We're getting destroyed by China in shipbuilding. They can outproduce us 200 to one. They have about 370, ah, warships. We have about 290. They can produce almost 20 to 30 a year. We produce six to eight.”
Greg Little Jul 22, 2025 ▶ 5:19 How Palantir Is Modernizing the Military With AI · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 23, 2025 bearish
Opinion
The United States' lead in artificial intelligence is actively shrinking
“Well I think America is winning on AI as it stands, but the lead is really shrinking, and when it comes to standards, for better or for worse, the debate that's happening right now between companies is like, what do we think about the EU AI Act? And the U.S. D…”
Rune Kvist Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 41:17 Nat Friedman Leads $15M in Superintelligence Insurance Company | AIUC · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 27, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garrett: US, Canada, and Australia possess every needed critical mineral element
“Just in the US and Canada and Australia, you have everything we need. We have every element that we need. So that is not the issue. We have the technology to go do these things.”
Christian Garrett Jul 27, 2025 ▶ 13:04 Winning the AI Race & Reindustrialization | Christian Garrett, 137 Ventures · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 30, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Nolan: China doubled its grid since 2010 while US stayed flat
“And you look at China's grid in 2010, U S and China were neck and neck. Just that's where the two lines cross on the chart, 2010. And since then China's doubled its grid while we stayed flat. So now they have two X the energy production that we have, and it's …”
Scott Nolan Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 18:45 Peter Thiel’s $50M Bet on U.S. Uranium Enrichment, General Matter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 30, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Nolan: US produces under 0.1% of global enriched uranium today
“And so we're here now today with the U S doing less than .1% of global enrichment, effectively R and D capacity, not much commercial capacity, and just completely relying on foreign state backed entities. About 25% of enrichment in the U S comes from Russia an…”
Scott Nolan Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 6:45 Peter Thiel’s $50M Bet on U.S. Uranium Enrichment, General Matter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 30, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Nolan: US supplied roughly 65% of global enriched uranium mid-century
“If you rewind to the fifties, sixties, seventies, US was most of the world's enrichment. We were 65% roughly, and we did that through a first generation technology called gaseous diffusion.”
Scott Nolan Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 5:37 Peter Thiel’s $50M Bet on U.S. Uranium Enrichment, General Matter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 8, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Valar Atomics aims to build thousands of domestic modular reactors
“So that's really what we focus on is building a modular reactor that can be manufactured here and that we build thousands of throughout the United States.”
Isaiah Taylor Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 3:27 Nuclear Race to Power Superintelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
Taylor: US excels at modular manufacturing over large-scale construction
“We don't do as well at like very large scale manufacturing or very large scale construction. We're much better at modular manufacturing.”
Isaiah Taylor Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 3:19 Nuclear Race to Power Superintelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 8, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Taylor: China is commercializing US nuclear reactor designs from the 1970s and 1980s
“They're also turning on innovative types of reactors that were invented in the United States in the seventies and eighties. And they sort of sat on the shelf and we never really tackled them. We ran into a bunch of regulatory roadblocks and then we never turne…”
Isaiah Taylor Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 7:49 Nuclear Race to Power Superintelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 11, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Maslin: China Produces Up to 94% of Rare Earth Magnets, US Under 1%
“China was producing over 90, up to 94% of the global supply and the US was producing less than one percent.”
John Maslin Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 4:53 How The Rarest Company On Earth Raised $75M from Altimeter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 11, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Vulcan co-developed the first 21st-century US magnet-making equipment
“So what we had to do is we had to actually co-develop some of the first pieces of magnet making equipment in the United States in the 21st century.”
John Maslin Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 10:13 How The Rarest Company On Earth Raised $75M from Altimeter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 11, 2025 positive
Opinion
Maslin: The US has sophisticated multi-generational manufacturing talent across key states
“When you look at the SMBs, those mom and pop shops that have been doing CNC machining or welding or any other type of metal work for the last 25 years, we have incredibly sophisticated technicians in this country. We have second, third, fourth generation welde…”
John Maslin Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 12:49 How The Rarest Company On Earth Raised $75M from Altimeter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 11, 2025 negative
Insight
Maslin: Copy-pasting Chinese manufacturing methods to the US will fail
“If you're just copying and pasting China into the United States and trying to build a manufacturing business around that, you are doomed. You will absolutely fail because when you think about the unit economics, labor costs, Environmental regulations. Permits.…”
John Maslin Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 32:16 How The Rarest Company On Earth Raised $75M from Altimeter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
Maslin: U.S. rare earth industry needs multiple 10,000-ton facilities
“That said, we need several 10,000 ton facilities. We need several companies going and creating competition and innovating and doing this better and faster and cheaper.”
John Maslin Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 23:31 How The Rarest Company On Earth Raised $75M from Altimeter · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 15, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Doricko: China leads the US in cloud seeding engineered nanoparticles
“The Chinese Meteorological Administration, also through these sort of proxies that exist in the Middle East have developed much, much more sophisticated engineered nanoparticles than any United States operation has.”
Augustus Doricko Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 12:52 Rainmaker’s Secret AI Plan for Superintelligent Weather | Cloud Seeding · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 22, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Oetting: 8VC companies Resilience and Saronic will manufacture exclusively in US
“We're not going to build our, you know, our fill finish facility in any other country at Resilience. We are 100%, we're more than 100% all in, in that facility, right? Cerronek's not going to go build ports in, you know, some random tax haven place just becaus…”
Drew Oetting Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 38:54 How 8VC Builds Billion-Dollar Companies | Palantir, Addepar, Saronic · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Aug 22, 2025 negative
Opinion
Oetting: The US has fallen behind most in shipbuilding capacity
“Figuring out how to build ships in the United States again, which is an area that we probably have, you know, the fallen behind the most. In terms of our capacity. And that's on the defense side, but also on the commercial side as well.”
Drew Oetting Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 21:27 How 8VC Builds Billion-Dollar Companies | Palantir, Addepar, Saronic · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Sep 1, 2025 bearish
Opinion
McGee: Apple Cannot Move Manufacturing to India or the US
“I don't think they can move to India. They certainly can't move to the US. Their production plants are basically encircled by Chinese competitors that they themselves created, and they're in a position where they can't make any good moves.”
Patrick McGee Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 19:09 Apple in China: Tim Cook’s $275B Pledge | Patrick McGee · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Sep 10, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Shadbolt: 80% of PsiQuantum's Supply Chain Is Based in the US
“Like 80% of our supply chain is in the United States. We have hundreds of companies in that supply chain here in the US.”
Pete Shadbolt Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 1:18:18 Raising $2 Billion to Become the SpaceX of Quantum | PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Sep 10, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Shadbolt: GlobalFoundries is the last remaining US tier-one pure-play foundry
“GF is really the last remaining pure play semiconductor, like tier one semiconductor foundry in the United States. So we offshored huge fractions of our semiconductor industry, as far as like a high volume, 300 millimeter foundry that is making chips for indus…”
Pete Shadbolt Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 1:11:05 Raising $2 Billion to Become the SpaceX of Quantum | PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 5, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Lowery: US produces 50,000 drones annually compared to China's 60 million
“China's building, I've heard, sixty million drones per year is not outside of the question of China being able to do, but, ah, and US maybe 50,000 drones in a year. So there's a huge disparity there.”
Andy Lowery Oct 5, 2025 ▶ 5:58 CEOs of Epirus & Galvanick on the Future of Defense & Cybersecurity · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Lowery: US high-volume amplifier manufacturing died after the early 2000s telecom boom
“We haven't built that kind of volume of amplifiers in the United States anyways since the early 2000 when we were doing the base stations and all of the towers were going up for our cell phones everywhere and you had Nortel networks and all of that. That was r…”
Andy Lowery Oct 5, 2025 ▶ 17:44 CEOs of Epirus & Galvanick on the Future of Defense & Cybersecurity · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 8, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Dell: Base Power will soon have the largest shared battery aggregation in the US
“And, you know, very soon here we'll have the largest aggregation by a wide margin. and you know, we'll, we'll continue to grow quickly and we'll be the largest aggregation of shared batteries in the country.”
Zach Dell Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 28:05 Base Power Raises $1B led by Addition, with Trust Ventures, Lightspeed, a16z, Altimeter, Elad Gil · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 8, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Dell: US electricity costs increased 2.5x over the past 20 years
“The cost of electricity in, in, in the country has gone up roughly two and a half X for the last 20 years.”
Zach Dell Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 24:05 Base Power Raises $1B led by Addition, with Trust Ventures, Lightspeed, a16z, Altimeter, Elad Gil · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 17, 2025
Disclosure
Gil: Developing public monument projects across 4-5 US cities
“We're working on doing monuments or public art across four or five key cities in the U S and we've been talking with different, both artists and artisans around different materials. So we've experimented with different bronze works. We've experimented with mar…”
Elad Gil Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 4:16 Elad Gil of Gil Capital, Gil & Co. & Enigma Global · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 17, 2025 negative
Opinion
Gil: State-level regulations like California's could curtail US AI progress
“And the dangerous part in AI was there's state level initiatives that have been very negative or could have been very negative for AI. I think Scott Wiener proposed one in California. I think there's others that have been proposed in other states that you coul…”
Elad Gil Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 23:26 Elad Gil of Gil Capital, Gil & Co. & Enigma Global · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 17, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gil: AI training data centers will concentrate in US and Gulf
“So all the training will probably go to places that have the cheapest, densest energy, and then a proper fiber optic cable in for the data transfer. And so that's probably parts of the US. That's probably the Gulf, like the Gulf.”
Elad Gil Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 21:19 Elad Gil of Gil Capital, Gil & Co. & Enigma Global · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Oct 27, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Zipline used its Rwanda drone delivery safety records to win US approval
“The whole idea was we're going to go out to Rwanda. We're going to prove out that we can do this. And then we can bring back all of the safety records to the U S and eventually be allowed to fly in the U S which is what has happened now.”
Alfred Lin Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 16:29 Alfred Lin, Inside Sequoia: Launching $200M Seed Fund & $750M Venture Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Nov 18, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Ulevitch: U.S. defense manufacturing relies critically on Chinese raw materials
“China, their ability to build ships is much, much faster than ours. A lot of the raw materials we need for our own shipbuilding comes from China, the steel and many of the metals. A lot of the things we need for batteries, for motors, for a lot of the ingredie…”
David Ulevitch Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 20:30 How Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, & David Ulevitch Started a16z’s American Dynamism Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Nov 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Ulevitch predicts China will sever U.S. battery supply chain in conflict
“If they all come from China, and we ever get into a real conflict with China, whether it's an economic conflict or an actual kinetic conflict, like, They're going to cut us off.”
David Ulevitch Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 21:16 How Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, & David Ulevitch Started a16z’s American Dynamism Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Nov 21, 2025 positive
Insight
Ulevitch: US should build better anti-ship missiles rather than match China's shipbuilding volume
“I'm not sure that the right strategy for America is to say, oh, they can build a hundred ships a year, so we need to be able to build a hundred ships a year. Like, what I would say a better strategy is if China's able to build a hundred ships a year, what if w…”
David Ulevitch Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 1:56 $635M Exit → $600M Fund: David Ulevitch on Building a16z’s Hottest New Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Nov 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Ulevitch: The US will have lights-out factories like China
“I think we're gonna have lights out factories the way they do in China.”
David Ulevitch Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 3:57 $635M Exit → $600M Fund: David Ulevitch on Building a16z’s Hottest New Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Nov 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Ulevitch: China is far more advanced than US in defense shipbuilding and manufacturing
“If you've ever been to Shenzhen, which I went to even before I joined in recent Horowitz and saw the manufacturing capabilities of advanced, advanced manufacturing, robotics manufacturing you know, and then now we see the defense like shipbuilding manufacturin…”
David Ulevitch Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 1:36 $635M Exit → $600M Fund: David Ulevitch on Building a16z’s Hottest New Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Nov 21, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Ulevitch: The US has almost no steel smelters left
“We don't have very many steel smelters in this country anymore. We used to have a lot. We have almost none now.”
David Ulevitch Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 4:12 $635M Exit → $600M Fund: David Ulevitch on Building a16z’s Hottest New Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Nov 24, 2025
Assertion Supported
Clark: US semiconductor manufacturing dropped from about 40% to 10%
“Back in the 19 nineties, about 40% of semiconductor manufacturing happened in the US. Today it's something like 10%. So drastic decrease.”
Philip Clark Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 3:07 Inside Thrive Capital: Investing in OpenAI, Wiz, Cursor, Nudge, Physical Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 13, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: China is building hypersonic missiles at costs the US cannot match
“So they've developed certain capabilities in certain hypersonic missile categories, ah, at a price that, ah, that we haven't achieved yet, which is why one of my critical technology areas is high, scaled hypersonics at cost.”
Emil Michael Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 22:55 Inside the Myths: Emil Michael on Palantir, SpaceX, Anduril & the Modern DoW · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 13, 2025 negative
Opinion
Michael: The Iraq and Afghanistan wars were a net negative for US
“The second war in Iraq and the Afghanistan war, and there were long, expensive conflicts where the benefit to the United States, looking back on it, was negative. It wasn't even neutral, right? It cost a lot of people their lives, and Afghanistan is still, Afg…”
Emil Michael Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 15:36 Inside the Myths: Emil Michael on Palantir, SpaceX, Anduril & the Modern DoW · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 15, 2025 negative
Opinion
Stephens: US cannot easily reshore critical components even with labor cost parity
“Even if there was complete labor cost parity, we still don't have the ability To just magically reshore a lot of these critical components that are going to be important to the next 50 or a hundred years.”
Trae Stephens Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 13:49 Inside Anduril: Exclusive HQ Tour w/ Palmer Luckey, Brian Schimpf, Matt Grimm & Trae Stephens · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 16, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Schimpf: Europe will spend 4x US defense procurement over next five years
“Europe is going to spend something like Four times the amount of procurement that the U S is over the next five years.”
Brian Schimpf Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 22:01 Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf on $1B+ Revenue & Still Doubling · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 16, 2025 positive
Insight
Schimpf: Critical defense supply chains require commercially viable factories
“You have to solve this at a commercially viable level, not at a defense specific level. It will always then be too expensive and unproducible. If you just have a defense exquisite magnet factory, like that doesn't work. You need a commercially viable magnet fa…”
Brian Schimpf Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 24:31 Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf on $1B+ Revenue & Still Doubling · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 16, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: US has sufficient PCB, composites, and CNC capacity for defense
“Is there enough composites capacity or printed circuit board capacity in the U S or CNC shops? The answer is absolutely yes. There is definitely enough capacity”
Brian Schimpf Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 24:08 Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf on $1B+ Revenue & Still Doubling · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 18, 2025 negative
Opinion
Stephens: US cannot easily reshore critical components despite labor parity
“Even if there was complete labor cost parity, we still don't have the ability To just magically reshore a lot of these critical components that are going to be important to the next 50 or a hundred years.”
Trae Stephens Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 9:41 Trae Stephens on Anduril’s Origin, Peter Thiel, & Palantir DNA · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 18, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Stephens: Belt and Road has put the US in a weakened position
“China is playing a subsidized subsidization game with all of their kind of domestic national champions and they're also running a very effective 40 chess strategy with the Belt and Road Initiative, which has put the United States and our allies and partners in…”
Trae Stephens Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 7:11 Trae Stephens on Anduril’s Origin, Peter Thiel, & Palantir DNA · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 22, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Luckey: China has hundreds of times more shipbuilding capacity than US
“China's hundreds of times ahead of it. Hundreds of times more capacity than us.”
Palmer Luckey Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 24:53 Palmer Luckey on UFOs, Anduril, Invisibility Tech, & Moon Wars · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luckey predicts mass-producing weapons in existing auto factories will become a major model
“I think that that is a model that is going to be a big deal here in the United States, and I think it's also going to be a big deal in allied nations that similarly have a lot of their own existing industrial capacity. You know, you don't necessarily have to b…”
Palmer Luckey Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 34:21 Palmer Luckey on UFOs, Anduril, Invisibility Tech, & Moon Wars · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luckey: Anduril made Fury landing gear heavier so any US machine shop can make it
“Fury's landing gear is a few percent heavier than it could have been, because we could have either made it manufacturable by only two places in the entire United States, or any machine shop in the entire country.”
Palmer Luckey Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 33:28 Palmer Luckey on UFOs, Anduril, Invisibility Tech, & Moon Wars · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Dec 22, 2025 negative
Insight
Luckey: Optical camouflage is not useful in modern defense
“The biggest problem with optical camouflage, and the main reason you don't see a lot of money being put towards it in the modern defense base is it's not actually that useful. It's useful against human adversaries who do not have any other technology to aid th…”
Palmer Luckey Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 17:01 Palmer Luckey on UFOs, Anduril, Invisibility Tech, & Moon Wars · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jan 17, 2026 positive
Opinion
Goldstein: Archer could not have been built outside the US
“I don't think there's another country that you could do something like this in.”
Adam Goldstein Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 26:36 I Tried Flying an Air Taxi With Archer’s CEO (Midnight Simulator) · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jan 21, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cliffton: Zipline's Dallas ordering rates imply 50B US deliveries annually
“The crazy thing is that the data that Zipline is currently seeing in Dallas, that the frequency of customer ordering, if you were to apply that just to the rest of the US, there would be fifty billion instant deliveries happening in the US every year.”
Keller Rinaudo Cliffton Jan 21, 2026 ▶ 43:12 Zipline: The Largest Autonomous Delivery System on Earth (and You’ve Barely Heard of It) · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jan 21, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cliffton: Over half of US Zipline deliveries occurred in past 30 days
“Of all of the deliveries that we've done in the United States, more than half of them were done in the last 30 days.”
Keller Rinaudo Cliffton Jan 21, 2026 ▶ 7:51 Zipline: The Largest Autonomous Delivery System on Earth (and You’ve Barely Heard of It) · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jan 21, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Zipline closes over $625M in new funding to accelerate expansion
“Yeah, I mean, you know, we, Zipline just closed over six hundred twenty-five million dollars which is going to accelerate our expansion both in the United States and outside the US.”
Keller Rinaudo Cliffton Jan 21, 2026 ▶ 3:09 Zipline: The Largest Autonomous Delivery System on Earth (and You’ve Barely Heard of It) · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Mar 13, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Ride hailing represents under 1% of US vehicle miles
“Ride hailing in that aggregate large number I just shared, is less than one percent of vehicle miles in the US.”
Alex Immerman Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 8:45 Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Productivity Gains Will Amplify the US Competitive Advantage
“I tend to believe in the former just because I'm being an American by choice. You sort of better be a patriot. Otherwise, what exactly were you thinking? And I am. So I tend to think that we will probably end up with just a Amplification of our advantage.”
Max Levchin Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 1:15:37 Max Levchin: “The Net IQ of the World Is About to Go Up 50 Points” · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 17, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Abraham: AI disparity will force NYC luxury apartments to hire armed guards
“The wealth disparity that's already extreme in the US is going to become even more extreme, and one of the first effects of that is just going to be that we're going to live in a less safe society, where in your New York Fancy apartment where you have your doo…”
Leif Abraham Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 1:04:54 The AI Brokerage Quietly Taking on Schwab, Fidelity & Vanguard · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Bry: Skydio operates the largest US drone factory at scale production
“So we're in what I believe is the biggest drone factory in the US that's actually at scale production right now.”
Adam Bry Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 1:06 Skydio Raises $110M Series F at $4.4B Valuation | CEO Adam Bry · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bry: Within five years, drones will respond to 911 calls nationwide
“I think a default expectation in five years is if there's an emergency, you call nine one, a drone shows up in a few seconds, and that's going to be everywhere in the US, hopefully everywhere in the world.”
Adam Bry Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 9:37 Skydio Raises $110M Series F at $4.4B Valuation | CEO Adam Bry · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Insight
Harrison: Military superiority is always front-run by industrial superiority
“Every single time military superiority is front run by industrial superiority. We did that in World War II. The problem is now that China is doing that today.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 1:09:33 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026 positive
Insight
Harrison: U.S. defense innovation requires pairing technical builders with military mavericks
“This sort of like one-to-one pairing of people who are doing hard things and military mavericks who are protecting and enabling their ability to execute that has been a very important capability throughout the history of sort of military innovation in the U.S.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 59:16 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
US would run out of munitions in 11 days in China conflict
“If we were to engage in a large scale conflict, I think it's something like 11 days. Like, we would run out of munitions in 11 days.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 49:10 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Harrison: U.S. Has Consistently Lost Wargames Against China Since 2015
“We have been effectively losing war games when they model the scenario of US versus China since, I think like, 2015. We have been, the US loses those war games.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 49:25 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Harrison: Conflict with China would invalidate a huge swath of US naval assets
“The problem with that is that if we get into any conflict with China, there's suddenly a huge swath of our naval assets that we don't want to put anywhere near China, Because they could just demolish it. And so it invalidate even a lot of the exquisite assets …”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 16:59 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026
Insight
Harrison: America's main existential threat is self-inflicted capability failure
“None of them could have an impact on the U.S. Because the U.S. Has such a unique in history and in geography and nation states, such a unique capability. That it is very diff, the US is a, has a lot of unfair advantages, and so what Lincoln says is, if we are …”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 1:03:27 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Harrison: Ukraine is live testing and fielding military tech faster than the US or China
“Ukraine was like the military industrial complex in production where it's like they're live testing stuff. Way more rapidly, even than, like, even the US at its best, even China or wherever. In Ukraine, it's just, we try something and we immediately field it, …”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 17:39 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Apr 29, 2026
Assertion Supported
Harrison: Post-WWII US Accounted for Over 40% of Global Manufacturing
“The U.S. Was like, 40 plus percent of manufacturing capacity globally.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 10:43 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jun 2, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Romo: Space Force budget request has grown to $71 billion
“And this is part of why you see Space Force's budget going from seventeen billion dollars a few years ago to now the request is for seventy one billion dollars.”
Eric Romo Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 33:13 Why Impulse Raised $500M to Move Things in Space | President & COO Eric Romo · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jun 11, 2026 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Singerman predicts proposed wealth taxes will go national across the US
“Oh, that's definitely going national.”
Brian Singerman Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 16:04 Brian Singerman: "If SpaceX Didn't Work, Founders Fund Wouldn't Exist" · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jun 26, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Armstrong: Coinbase Was First in the US Approved for Crypto Perp Futures
“Getting these approvals in the US we were the first for These perpetual style futures and things like that for crypto and options trading. We're the first company to do that. I don't think any other company in the U S has gotten that yet.”
Brian Armstrong Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 29:04 Brian Armstrong: Rebuilding Coinbase Around Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jun 26, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: 80% of Crypto Trading Volume Moved Offshore
“Like most people don't know that 80% of the trading volume went offshore for crypto because of the lack of clarity in the US.”
Brian Armstrong Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 1:32 Brian Armstrong: Rebuilding Coinbase Around Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jun 26, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Armstrong: Coinbase Wins Approvals to Unify US and International Order Books
“And we've just finally gotten some approvals where we can now Get our international customers and our US customers on the same order book and liquidity is a network effect.”
Brian Armstrong Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 1:39 Brian Armstrong: Rebuilding Coinbase Around Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jun 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Armstrong: The US Ranks 11th or 12th Globally in Economic Freedom
“And I think that America is one of the more free market capitalist countries in the world. It's not the most. It's, I think it's in the top 11 or 12. You can actually go look at the rankings, right? There's various organizations that publish rankings of the ec…”
Brian Armstrong Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 10:44 Brian Armstrong: Rebuilding Coinbase Around Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 22, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts the US faces tyranny or anarchy within two years
“Because otherwise you are going to have tyranny slash anarchy, which are both basically the same happening over the next couple of years in the United States.”
David Friedberg Jul 22, 2026 ▶ 15:35 David Friedberg Explains America's Economic Crisis in 60 Minutes · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 22, 2026 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Tax unrealized gains, raise capital gains to 40%, cut income taxes
“When billionaires borrow against their unrealized capital gains, they should pay capital gains tax. Capital gains tax should be 40%, not 15% or 18% or 20%. They should pay the same as labor. In fact, labor should pay less. Income tax should be much lower. Capi…”
David Friedberg Jul 22, 2026 ▶ 24:05 David Friedberg Explains America's Economic Crisis in 60 Minutes · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 22, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Wealth taxes will trigger capital flight and unrest without solving problems
“It'll cause people to flee and run around and get away and it'll cause more discontent, but it doesn't solve the policy problems.”
David Friedberg Jul 22, 2026 ▶ 16:51 David Friedberg Explains America's Economic Crisis in 60 Minutes · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Jul 22, 2026 positive
Insight
Friedberg: US Should Target Converting 2% of Workers to Capitalists Annually
“And I think the key metric for America should be to convert two percent of Americans from labor to capital each year. If that would be the KPI from America for the next 250 years, we would fucking crush it. Because what that means is that in 50 years, every Am…”
David Friedberg Jul 22, 2026 ▶ 28:20 David Friedberg Explains America's Economic Crisis in 60 Minutes · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Sep 7, 2026
Assertion Supported
Mavrookas: US shipbuilding capacity currently sits at 100,000 gross tons
“That's our initial build out that 1.5 X's the United States shipbuilding capacity right now, which sits at a 100,000 gross tons.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 2:48 Inside Saronic’s $9.25B Autonomous Boat Factory | CEO Dino Mavrookas
Sep 7, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mavrookas: China outbuilds the US 230-to-1 in shipbuilding
“China outbuilds us 230 to one. Our naval fleet is actually shrinking and we have 0.1% of global shipbuilding capacity as a non-existent industry.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 26:42 Inside Saronic’s $9.25B Autonomous Boat Factory | CEO Dino Mavrookas
Sep 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2031
Mavrookas: Port Alpha's 800-acre footprint makes it largest US shipyard
“Just that footprint alone will make it the largest shipyard in the country.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 2:33 Inside Saronic’s $9.25B Autonomous Boat Factory | CEO Dino Mavrookas
Sep 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2024
Mavrookas: China built 1,000+ commercial ships in 2024 versus five US ships
“They built over a thousand commercial ships last year, and the United States built five. I think this was 20, 24. Five. Like one, two, three, four, Five large ocean going commercial vessels.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 8, 2026 ▶ 17:21 Dino Mavrookas: America Needs to Build Ships Again
Sep 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Mavrookas: China launches ~30 warships annually versus 5 to 10 US ships
“We being the U.S. Launch about five to 10 military, meaning destroyer, cruiser, aircraft carrier, like straight naval vessel warship. China's probably doing about 30, so six to one, seven to one, somewhere in there.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 8, 2026 ▶ 17:03 Dino Mavrookas: America Needs to Build Ships Again
Sep 8, 2026
Assertion Supported
Mavrookas: China outbuilds the US in shipbuilding 230 to 1
“China outbuilds the US 230 to one.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 8, 2026 ▶ 2:26 Dino Mavrookas: America Needs to Build Ships Again
Sep 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mavrookas: The US Navy fleet is shrinking and has around 290 ships
“The naval fleet that we have today is actually shrinking. So there's right around 290 ships in, in our naval fleet.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 8, 2026 ▶ 2:29 Dino Mavrookas: America Needs to Build Ships Again
Sep 8, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mavrookas: Industrial scale will return to US shipbuilding via autonomy
“So what you're going to see in shipbuilding is real industrial scale come back to this country. And what you'll see in terms of defense in the commercial market is more and more things shift. Towards autonomy.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 8, 2026 ▶ 27:19 Dino Mavrookas: America Needs to Build Ships Again
Sep 10, 2026 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Mavrookas: China built over 1,000 commercial ships in 2024 versus five in the US
“They built over a thousand commercial ships last year, and the United States built five. I think this was 20, 24. Five. Like one, two, three, four, Five. Large, ocean-going commercial vessels.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 7:11 Saronic's 4 Co-Founders on Building a $9.25B Shipbuilder | Part III
Sep 10, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Mavrookas: China outbuilds the United States in shipbuilding 230 to one
“China outbuilds the US 230 to one.”
Dino Mavrookas Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 1:36 Saronic's 4 Co-Founders on Building a $9.25B Shipbuilder | Part III
Sep 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Busch predicts US casting and forging will be challenging for 3-5 years
“Casting and forging is a big one. You know, I see that being a challenge here in the next three to five years.”
Doug Busch Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 16:53 Saronic's 4 Co-Founders on Building a $9.25B Shipbuilder | Part III
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