AI

“What I'm actually seeing with this current flavor of AI is almost identical to what happened almost 10 years ago now, a little more than 10 years ago with predictive analytics.”

“I don't think it's gonna, you know, the space is gonna crash or everybody leave overnight, but I think just slowly over the next five years, unless AI really takes off, you'll see a general shrinking of venture capital, I think”

“I believe in two years where everyone's gonna say, oh, you know, we thought it would solve everything and it's all a very limited number of use cases. It's complete hype. And, you know, we'll probably see a bit of a crash and we'll see a retrenchment in AI.”

“There may be a future where AI is the same thing, where you, nobody in five years will say I invest in AI, just like somebody won't say I invest in tech, just seen as the entire industry.”

“The map of how this evolved, particularly in AI today, is moving so quickly that what was a very great place to maybe be investing in twenty-twenty-one, 22, is really not the place where there's a ton of opportunity today.”

“I would view AI as an enterprise search problem. So where do you have huge repositories of data? Like what are you putting that in your data warehouse if you have one? Or where do you have the most data in your system? Or if you could search that data really q…”

“Simulation tools are going to have a moment and AI Is and will continue to come for them.”

“It's not SAS only SAS. It's not only AI. It's never going to be only FinTech, but the combination of these things together makes for a truly defensible, resilient business that, that I think is going to be really large.”

“I think workflow SaaS is the delivery mechanism that will allow AI to actually, you know, keep its promise.”

“Defense primes are good at aeronautics. They're good at explosives. You know, I tend to, I always say, like, they're good at boom. Don't compete on boom. What they're bad at generally is software, is AI, is autonomy.”

“I think there's a lot of ways that technology can improve the operating margin of these home services businesses by five, 10, 15%, maybe not 15. And there's just a hugely long tail of fragmented service providers in, in all of these industries that can get rol…”

“Every software company, every product that will be built for a user that's That on a computer will have data as its fundamental building blocks, and so we invest in data systems, databases, visualization. We invest in AI, both at the infrastructure and the app…”

“I think, like, AI will make us see, like, answers are, like, really not important, but you want to read Robert Caro, because, like, you want to read Thousands and thousands of pages that, like, really make you feel and understand what it was like to be in the …”

“When something becomes commoditized, we're like, it could be answers or intelligence or whatever, like there will be value at the next layer of the stack. And like, that's just how the world works.”

“I think as everything becomes like easier to make from AI to SMRs, like brand ends up playing a big role.”

“I called it super sass in, in that like 20, 25 prediction. And I think it is like, I think it's really amazing and like in no way godlike. And it's just like, I feel like I'm being psyopped whenever people are like, oh my God, this is like, this is, this chang…”

“AI is the reason that a company that might not have been winner-take-all before would be winner-take-all now. Like, I think RAMP is a really interesting example of, like, There might be a winner take all dynamic in corporate cards at some point. If like that s…”

“I think that with the calendar, they don't know they want a calendar. They use notes. They use reminders. Their time in their head is unstructured. Yet you can now structure it with AI.”

“The onboarding flow they used to be eight minutes. We cut that in half and then cut that in half again with AI. Just like take a picture of your schedule, upload it much faster than typing things in.”

“I think what we could be getting wrong is like, maybe you kind of have to rethink the entire tool from the ground up to be AI native and maybe that matters versus like layering it into your existing product.”

“Though I do think, you know, maybe my hot take is like, if you're an enterprise business, you there, we have not automated sales yet. We've not automated enterprise sales yet. And so I do still think if you're working with enterprises where there's just like s…”

“Vibe coding has become kind of this meme, but it is like so power powerful today, not just for developers, but like for everybody else too. And so I think that's been, what's, what's been most shocking to me in the last year of just AI in general is just like …”

“I think what I mean to say by making the bold statement that ASI appears to be here in some sense is that I think if progress were to grind to a screeching halt, we still have what I believe to be like the most incredible economic opportunity of our lifetime i…”

“But I see a path to what I would define as full deflection Meaning, like, 95% of these tasks being done by AI probably in the next, like, 12 to 18 months.”

“I think genetic testing technology and analysis technology, genome technology, if you will, It's going to be as powerful as artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is ultimately a tool, and it's a tool that's going to, I think, be most consequential i…”

“And I think that there's so much of this existing internet, there's so much of this existing infrastructure that people have to depend on and use every single day that we're probably not gonna rewrite all of it. We're not going to rebuild a new internet. We're…”

“Yeah, I think 15% of our signups came from, well, AI told me about BrowserBase.”

“And if we want AI to do the same work that we're doing, we need AI to use a web browser to work the same way we do.”

“I think the most important thing with a video going viral is like, do people think that it's real? And if there's even like a slight hesitation, like, oh, this might not be real, this feels AI, then There's formats that that kills.”

“I think AI will be doing tens of millions of jobs in the US by then that are currently being done by a person.”

“I think a lot of what's happening right now is people are buying AI and then just hiring less.”

“My guess is that there's a strong belief that AI for general population, the seven billion devices out there will become very popular and will become democratized. I can't wait for that to happen. And I think we're probably just one or two steps away from that…”

“What is different now is because of AI, because you can introduce different tiers, you can introduce credit for overage usages or what have you actually see revenue retention being higher than unique user retention.”

“Think about the number of people who actually fluently use AI today. I would say that's less than one percent today.”

“I think that in a world of AI and as AI starts to mature, I think a lot of the benefits actually go to what I would call not the incumbents, but like the fast moving larger companies. Like, of course there will be a few companies that start from zero and explo…”

“The question is, is this time different? I think there's really good reasons to think that this time is really different. And in particular, because when you look at the marketing claims of all the aging companies, The value proposition is we're going to do th…”

“It's now when everyone thinks about the future in AI, they're also thinking about manufacturing and energy, right? They're actually also thinking about mining and refining. That is going to be very powerful, and it's a key part of the re-industrialization tren…”

“I think the biggest feature of AI is not that it's smart it's that it's debuggable.”

“Nuclear is sort of like the derivative to AI. If you believe that AI is going to go vertical, you should probably invest in nuclear, you know, because A, you're going to power it. B, you're going to be very insulated from, you know, the deflationary effects of…”

“I think there's going to be almost as much of a change in, like, the way that our economy and our lives work from genomic medicines as from AI.”

“I think it's gonna be a massive productivity gain, at least for the next 20 years. If you're like, you run a construction company, or you have an HVAC business. Because right now you're paying some person 50 grand to make your website. Like that's done.”

“I believe over the next 20 or 30 years it will make a huge difference. Yes. I just think in the short run, there's investments that need to be made to realize that. And I think that, you know, the way that our system deals with that is by adding to the debt.”

“Things are moving so fast that if you have a beautiful product roadmap, something's not right. You're probably not moving fast enough.”

“It was really the convergence of two things to my mind the availability of hardware that was built for another purpose in this case, gaming GPUs, and then also progress on the architecture where I see very strong parallels between what we've done and what has …”

“We basically don't use AI at all inside the company to design chips. And I think if you go and look at people who are building millions of chips in industry, there's a very small amount of AI, if any, that's being involved in the actual design of those chips t…”

“So no, I don't think the AI is going to dramatically reduce our timelines. Currently our timelines are mostly determined as far as I can tell by infrastructure, right? We're breaking ground on these sites in Australia and Chicago. These are roughly a hundred m…”

“And in the AI era, overall, it's a hundred X opportunity. I've been lucky to be involved in the web era, the mobile, the cloud, the social, the not so good eras. And then the AI, I think those eras were a 10 X opportunity. This is a hundred X opportunity. So t…”

“When new waves come, expectations are ahead of reality. But if I go out four, five, 10 years out, it'll be a reality.”

“Using AI, I think everybody, eight billion people in the world will be programmers because they'll vibe code. That's why this is a hundred X opportunity. It's really a hundred X because hundred X times thirty million is three billion. So there will be three bi…”

“In order to actually use AI in an effective way in manufacturing, you have to lay down the structure first. You have to collect that tribal knowledge.”

“So what it really means is one, the discovery of vulnerabilities in systems is very likely Going to experience this like Cambrian explosion, as people say, right? What took a single person or a group of people, you know, a lot of time, a lot of energy to try a…”

“Early in technology waves, that's when you have all the low hanging fruit. And so one of my pieces of advice to founders is often who are doing really hard things right now in AI. I'm like, why are you doing the really hard thing? Just go do the dumb, easy thi…”

“And the dangerous part in AI was there's state level initiatives that have been very negative or could have been very negative for AI. I think Scott Wiener proposed one in California. I think there's others that have been proposed in other states that you coul…”

“I think that today, 85% of what I do, Like basically can be done by AI. And it's not a question of, is the tech ready? It's how do we implement the tech?”

“People aren't, there are some example, some extreme examples, but it's not that people are getting fired today or their jobs are being automated today. It's that the hiring's slowing.”

“Because AI is going to benefit all these companies and the stock market's going to go up. And we might be at the front of a multi-year amazing run in the stock market because these companies revenues are going to grow faster. Their costs are not going to be as…”

“There's 20 trillion dollars in labor spend. Software, I think it's like a one trillion dollar, so one trillion of the 20 is software. Like, that 20 trillion's up for grabs.”

“What AI has the potential of doing is looking, is it's looking at the services market, which is measures in tens of trillions of dollars. And that's why the premiums that we're offering seems very high and seems at times ridiculous.”

“You can't hire a new person unless you prove to us that this thing cannot be done with AI.”

“Carta has some, like, incredible data on this that 41% of companies seen in Serie A, Series A are all AI, quote, unquote, AI companies.”

“In a 25 year span, we'll be able to look and say, oh, AI unlocked all these new industries that we can't conceive of today, and all of these jobs, just like the internet did, just like the automobile did, just like the steam engine did, and everything else. Bu…”

“The unlocked AI is UBI, Universal Basic Income. It's like Andrew Yang, I think, was absolutely right about this.”

“It's going to be easier and easier to execute on business, but I think the thing that will remain rare and special is creativity in business, right? Who is the person or company or set of people that is coming up with something really, really new and novel in …”

“It's still gonna take a decade, I think, from here to fully iron out all the kinks of how companies work, how people collaborate.”

“AI is like one of the fastest adopted products, but also one of the least popular. People are afraid that it's going to take my job, that it's going to, you know, affect my life negatively. I think a big part of that is there's no retail investment in AI.”

“I think they have absolutely a lot of value, but there is also going to be a lot of disruption for many applications as we know it. What happened in the first decade of the cloud computing revolution Is that things like enterprise SaaS software had a Cambrian …”

“Asset managers are less heavily regulated compared to banks, and so they tend to be leading when it comes to adopting new tools because it can make a real difference. They are always trying to create that little bit of alpha, because they manage assets on beha…”

“And if I don't pay attention for three months, I'm really behind when it comes to what is possible with AI. It's honestly, I think it's a little bit of a terrifying moment for every technologist that there is, because there is a lot of Alice in Wonderland here…”

“I think AI represents the beginnings of us being able To run truly thinking algorithms, to industrialize thought in a very, very big way, and I think it's very much the beginning.”

“Today they cover about 30% of the world. That means 70% of the world does not have access to AI.”

“The gap between like what the Valley thinks about tech and AI and focuses on and what the world cares about, it's pretty vast. And I think that cap is like not even close to being filled. So when it comes to things like insurance, we talk about what the profes…”

“Transformers are not the end state of AI, right? AI is Embarrassingly stupid compared to many of the examples we are carrying around in our heads, both in terms of what it can achieve, but also how much power it uses to do it.”

“I know we talk about it looks bad or whatever, but the bet is that the demand will come, and I think that's actually a good bet. So I see it as like, all right, fine, it looks, it doesn't look great in the short term, and I can see why people are irked by it b…”

“Because I think like, 99.9% or something of all internet traffic will be AI driven.”

“So between the time, like you put your address in and you Got an offer. There'd be 11 human beings who touched that. That's insane. That's just an insane outcome. Like, today, zero human beings are in that loop in many of our flows. Like, AI does all of that.”

“Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI.”

“The threat of AI for these companies isn't actually related to their current valuation or frankly, even their current business. It's more related to the terminal value of, okay, maybe some of these companies are not benefiting from AI today. They haven't re-ac…”

“And the simple narrative, as we just talked about, is AI's gonna kill SAS. And I just don't think that that's the case. And the reason why I know that that's not gonna be the case is because I lived it.”

“Clearly we have AI tailwinds in terms of what we can offer our customers, right? And if you combine this with the regulatory work that we've done, which is really hard to reciprocate, like, you can see that it's the foundations of the business are really hard …”

“And now even more so with AI, where the whole internet becomes sanitized and summarized by AI, which actually has a lot of value But it causes people to appreciate the humanness of Reddit.”

“And that, right now, there's no indication of a slowdown in the economy, really. There's a few, you know, there was a bit of a surprise on the employment report, but by and large, the economy's growing, you know, the long-term trend for growth is not even two …”

“I think democratic ownership is the solution to how we deal with AI. The idea that everyone wants to get, like, universal basic income, I think that's a horrible idea, but universal basic ownership, I feel like that is magic.”

“I think more than 20%, but less than 50. So like let's say 20 to 35 years, 20 to 30% of jobs are Not to, not, not just displaced, but also suppressed. So you don't make that marginal higher and that adds up to tens of millions of jobs.”

“Really an AI is just as good for monitoring protection, safety, and civility as it is for making robots. I think we're going to be in Pretty good shape there.”

“My, I guess my belief is that for many, many people, accomplishing something is really a big, important part in their life, and so it may be very dangerous if, Everyone can just go do their hobbies.”

“And with AI, it's different where you're literally reading a paper, like, yeah, somebody's gonna implement it tomorrow and it's gonna be available. And then everyone's gonna take advantage of it.”

“I tend to believe in the former just because I'm being an American by choice. You sort of better be a patriot. Otherwise, what exactly were you thinking? And I am. So I tend to think that we will probably end up with just a Amplification of our advantage.”

“In general, I think the net IQ of the world is about to go up like 50 points. Like we're surrounded by people, not in Silicon Valley, of course, To quote the Big Lebowski, not a nom, of course. Right. The average IQ is still a hundred. I think the average IQ w…”

“I think companies that have built software orally and just sell that software are very vulnerable. Like the bar for quality of software is going up rapidly... If you really hate some piece of software that you're using, And it's just software doesn't have some…”

“The willingness to put up with random obnoxious things like low quality or crappy terms or products that pretend to be something they're not, like all of that is just gonna get flushed out very quickly. And companies that have business models that are buried i…”

“Social is dead because it was basically cannibalized from AI.”

“And AI, if you look at like agents what we've launched, that does number one now. And so two and three is going to be replaced as well. It's just a matter of time”

“We've sort of led the wave around these AI rollups where the thesis was everywhere we offshored for labor productivity, we're now onshoring back with AI.”

“I do think AI brings a lot of advantages and positivity. And, but if it concentrates opportunity in the hands of very few, then it also brings instability in the end, because that's not what society is going to reject that.”

“The natural gravitational pull is that a lot of that scale is going to get concentrated in a handful of companies.”

“If you look at, you know, a lot of what Mark and Madhu and our team is doing in creation, we're buying some of these things from PE firms. We're buying them for not a lot, and we'll arb them into AI transformation, and maybe there's a way to create outfalls.”

“One prediction that I think that I'll see with, that you'll see with AI is, You're seeing a lot of spend happening, and it needs to, you know, both with the model development and also just with customers adoption, they're spending and they're using a lot of to…”

“Ultimately what we've concluded at the moment is that the fundamentals are really strong, the market is really resilient, and AI is accelerating its pace. Even though it's hard for me to say that, and maybe someone says you're crazy, like, AI is all everyone's…”

“Private companies that are breaking into pretty much the top 25 in the world before they even go public. It's an unprecedented time, but I think that's what makes AI so exciting, is that you have these private companies that are capturing so much value and so …”

“If let's say that the deep seek moment that happened you know, last year, another moment like that happens where someone figures out a model that can do all the calculations with less power, less Semiconductors, less memory, all of that. If that happens, it is…”

“There's a lot of companies that we look at that are massive shortages the amount of labor that they have, and it's not one type of labor, it's a lot of different types of skilled labor, but which usually means that the salaries for those jobs are gonna go up t…”

“And really the gigawatt is almost the atomic unit of where the growth in AI is coming from. And it's one of the biggest shortages as well that's out there.”

“And so the token economy, when people talk about it is really the proliferation of agents and decisions made by artificial intelligence. And those decisions can actually be quantified in a number of tokens. And so it's like very different than human intelligen…”

“I actually think that the regulatory environment is going to do what it takes to allow for as cooperative of an AI environment as possible going forward”

“Our team uses AI in every team in our company. And it doesn't matter whether you're in the ops team, you're in the local lending team, you're on the HR team, and obviously our technical teams deploy almost all of their code with AI.”

“If we are the leaders of this company, we have to know everything there is to know about how AI works, how you build with AI so that one, we are more effective and two, we're building for where the puck is going.”

“Like, I think the true human, like, iconic things are just going to be more and more valuable from, not just from a monetary perspective, but from a, Mindshare perspective, from like a you know, from an emotional perspective, right?”

“When I talk about AI or when I conceive information about AI on tech Twitter, it's obviously very techno-optimist. We're excited about it. With anything being blasted to mainstream, there's Always a lot of skepticism around big tech, a lot of skepticism around…”

“AI itself isn't a new platform. So when you think about new platforms like that used to be new mobile game councils, but you know, the web and the web in a browser was a new platform and mobile was a new platform. We all move into a place of discovery where we…”

“I think the best companies are just going to get even more efficient like Coinbase is doing. And if there's companies that fail to Integrate AI, then they could be, they could get left behind, but the best companies in every industry are just going to be even …”

“I'm in the camp of people who don't think AI is going to actually cause high unemployment. I think that employment will be about the same.”

“One of the next big things we're reaching for to get in place is, is recursive self-improvement, right? So we're actually using our apps to collect feedback from customers. Whether that's bugs, bugs they're encountering or even new feature requests. And we're …”

“Now gross margins, if your gross margins are high, that's actually a bad thing, because, you know, AI inference costs a lot of money, and if you have an AI product with high gross margins, that means that no one's using your AI features”

“The thing that's changed massively in the new AI paradigm is that you can have businesses that are well over a billion dollars in revenue that haven't proven out their unit economics. They haven't proven out, you know, durable product differentiation. In many …”

“It would kind of suck to be like the SAS fund right now, you know? And I know a lot of people that are, you know, that have kind of been the SAS fund have like reinvented themselves and been like, oh, we're now like the SAS AI fund. But that's just a much toug…”

“And I think that we're in a temporary phase of people really, you know, getting excited about what they can do with AI. But not yet realizing all the limitations that they have”

“People that are just like, yeah, design me the thing, you know, you're going to get the average and it's not going to stand out. And in a world where there's just more than average in terms of software and media and advertising and content, I mean, You know th…”

“Right now the narrative seems to be like software is, you know, kaput... But I think that a lot of software will do just fine, or actually even amazing.”

“All my experience with AI so far have shown that on formal domains, things that are verifiable you can get to amazing outcomes with enough IQ points, and yet judgment is like somehow not purely correlated with just adding IQ points to the model.”

“I think we're going to see a lot of, maybe not venture scalable businesses, but a lot of newly minted millionaires that are going to figure out how this all works. And they're going to set up a completely agenticized business where there's no, no real employee…”

“And I think one of them is going to end up being a Tamagotchi or a Lububu, but it's going to be actually useful. Rather than just a little thing that you have to feed or it dies, you know, it's actually going to help you in life, right?”

“I've got a team of six here. I don't really think it's going to scale much more than maybe one or two more people. And I think I'll be able to do exactly what I did at SpaceX with only six because AI drives most of what we're doing and AI is now starting to en…”

“I don't really think it's going to scale much more than maybe one or two more people, and I think I'll be able to do exactly what I did at SpaceX with only six, because AI, It drives most of what we're doing, and AI is now starting to enable things we weren't …”

“It's kind of like early days of internet. If we say, what is it, what is the ROI for email? Well, show me, you know, I mean, there are companies that say, prove me ROI before you use it. You know, am I typing an email? Should I try to figure out what the ROI o…”

“Most of AI is just glorified data science.”

“So this is the irony of it all, that we're, the trillion dollars of CapEx this year, and the 10 trillion over the next five years that are coming, Is to move data centimeters and millimeters. That's AI.”

“In this kind of three year window, That is probably where 90 plus percent of my investment, well, ninety-ish percent, something like that, you know, the majority is going in.”

“I think the real unlock is not in efficiency, but in capacity, right? It's like, what can we do if we can build so much more?”

“I really don't think that there are, like, intelligence problems that AI will not solve in the long term. I just don't think of that as, like, it's gonna be all over in six months.”

“I've always felt that there's, in terms of just pure knowledge work, there's, there is nothing that humans do that AIs can't do, you know, partly because Humans are, humans, you know, our brains are just computers, you know, like the AIs are too, right?”

“I think a big, big mistake that people are making is that because of the AI, building things become easier. People are making a lot of bad decisions, bad tastes, wasteful ideas that actually offset the empowerment of AI.”

“Until people start understanding what the average person can have as positive use cases that are incremental to search, they're not going to be proponents of AI, and there's no reason to expect them to be.”

“You can use AI however you want. But in the end of the day, you as a human is held accountable for every decision that your AI made for you. So it is absolutely not acceptable when I come to an engineer and say, hey, why you did, why you implemented this syste…”

“Like if the AI starts writing all the ad creative, then all of it's going to eventually look the same and the user won't respond to the ad. So how do you create alpha? Well, you have to have really smart people that understand systems, understand what they're …”

“AI can be great at 80% use cases. We live in the .1% use case. We're looking for the needle in the haystack. AI is not good at looking at the, for every needle in the haystack.”

“We're gonna need more AI-ready people, so I don't buy the jobs argument. We have so many things to do, there's not enough people to do it.”

“My hottest take right now is that I think AI is gonna converge, and, ah, we are going to build a digital twin of nature, and just like we have prediction models for, like, everything from, like, missile defense to, ah, tsunamis and earthquakes, we're gonna hav…”

“Yeah, Molly, my hottest take is I really do think that we're re-entering kind of the world of the here and the now, and what I mean by that is I think being successful in real space, doing hard tech, building real things, and manufacturing with real tangible i…”