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Xander Oltmann

Founder and General Partner, Commodity Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounder@XanderOltmann ↗commoditycapital.xyz ↗

Xander Oltmann founded Commodity Capital in 2020, an early-stage venture firm investing in vertically integrated monopolies and hard-tech businesses. Prior to venture investing, he was a software entrepreneur who founded companies including Scope Enterprises and HighQ Labs.

9statements → 7claims → 3claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.56/5average certainty → 2.78/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

2 supported 1 partly supported 0 contradicted 4 not checkable as stated how the 7 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

4 predictions · 3 assertions · 2 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 7 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 3 are resolved, and 4 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Xander argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Oltmann: OpenAI is attempting to build its own chip factories
“OpenAI is currently out in the market now trying to actually build their own chip factories and develop their own chips internally, which is a total shift away from historically what software companies have done.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 4:40 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
50% certainty 3
100% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Xander Oltmann on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Xander Oltmann said on Sourcery that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Supported
Oltmann: OpenAI is attempting to build its own chip factories
“OpenAI is currently out in the market now trying to actually build their own chip factories and develop their own chips internally, which is a total shift away from historically what software companies have done.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 4:40 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: Margin compression will hit public SaaS companies within three years
“In the span of two to three years, I think what we're really going to start to see is this narrative really catch up with publicly traded companies that already have these like massive user bases. so I think it'll be interesting to see what happens over the …”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 8:56 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: Hadrian boasts 70% gross margins and top 3% SaaS growth
“Hadrian's got like 70% gross margins and they're growing in the top three percent of all SaaS companies”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 16:13 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Insight
Oltmann: Cheaper software is shifting tech from SaaS to vertical integration
“My thesis around the dropping cost of software and how that's leading towards a shift away from pure play SaaS and leading more towards vertically integrated companies.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 1:40 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: The spike in GPU prices and demand is temporary
“We might see GPU spike in demand, you know, Cause that to increase in price for the time being, but I think that's just a moment in time for right now.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 6:00 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Insight
Oltmann: AI wave mirrors the predictive analytics boom from a decade ago
“What I'm actually seeing with this current flavor of AI is almost identical to what happened almost 10 years ago now, a little more than 10 years ago with predictive analytics.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 10:05 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: Startups relying on AI as their moat will struggle to IPO
“I doubt that most of these companies will go public. You could see that for any, you know, early stage startup, but I think the AI as the moat businesses are gonna have a really hard time.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 11:18 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Partly held up
Oltmann: VC deployment, late-stage check sizes, and deal volume will surge in H2 2024
“And then the second half of this year I think we're going to see a significant increase in just dollars deployed from venture funds. That's also going to be on, you know, individual check sizes, I think are going to go up again in the later stages. And then al…”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 22:37 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Oltmann: Snowflake Spends More on Sales and Marketing Than on R&D
“Snowflake, where they're spending More in sales and marketing than actually spending in research and development.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 7:52 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Mo Feb 1, 2024 17m
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