why aren't all 36 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Lemkin: Implementing custom OAuth in vibe coding creates major security leaks
“All of these apps have their own OAuth built in. That is secure. That has been hardened. And everyone goes in and I know Replit the best because that's where I've spent time, but they all have the same ultimate. They're all more similar than they're different.…”
Disclosure
Halligan: HubSpot Avoids Hiring Executives From Google and Microsoft
“The other hack that helped us is we just don't hire anyone from Google or Microsoft or a giant company that it's like a different level of abstraction from where we're at. It was used to having, you know, a lot of staff and a lot of help around that maybe we'r…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Liu: Microsoft Lists is a direct attempt to replicate Airtable
“Microsoft has a product called list that is. In many ways, like a direct, you know, kind of attempt to replicate air table. We think we have a lot of product advantages over that product, but you know, it's a much more direct play against air table. Google has…”
Insight
Lemkin: ChatGPT Benefits High-Authority Sites That Rank Lower in Google
“Actually, ChatGPT and friends benefit you if you have high authority, but you're lower, lower in Google because they don't care. They're just looking for the best piece of content to answer a question.”
Opinion
Lemkin: Slack has become a tax on time and an unnecessary app
“I don't want to go to, honestly, I don't want to go to Slack. It's a tax on my time. It used to be wonderful and there's no knock on Slack. It's a great business, but it's become another browser or another app I have to do.”
Disclosure
Halligan: Salesforce Never Made a Serious Acquisition Offer for HubSpot
“Salesforce never made it serious. Acquisition offer. No. And there was all this rumors. Google was acquiring HubSpot.”
Insight
Early-stage startups over-invest in refactoring before securing market traction
“I think a lot of early companies do too much refactoring and too much perfecting of the architecture. Being successful in the marketplace and getting momentum with customers can make up for a lot of sense. And give you a lot of time and effort and flexibility …”
Disclosure
Bonzom: Repeat Singapore founders intentionally take smaller rounds at lower valuations
“I'm seeing now, like, people that are building their second or third company here, even if one of them got an exit with Google here in, in Singapore they're only raising one, 1.5 million at an eight to ten million valuation, where they can, even if today still…”
Insight
Snow: Standard SEM spend on Google or LinkedIn won't yield outsized leverage
“You just have to find those opportunities, though, because it doesn't exist in just plugging in money in Google or LinkedIn SEM. Like it doesn't work like that if you're trying to be, if you're trying to find outsized leverage.”
Opinion
Bansal: Only about ten companies globally excel at software delivery and CI/CD
“There are only, like, maybe 10 companies in the world who are very good in software delivery, where, like, you know, CI, CD, software delivery, their shipping code very fast, and these are, like, your Googles, and Facebooks, and Amazons, and Netflix, and they …”
Opinion
Beri: Big tech companies are bureaucratic and reorg every 6-9 months
“They're actually fairly bureaucratic and they reorg every six to nine months.”
Insight
Grace: Big-tech PMs often fail at early-stage startups
“I have seen just hard fails from people who kind of like have that Silicon Valley passport that you're looking for. Oh, three years at Google, and then four years at Facebook. Fantastic. Not for your 20% startup. That person, especially people from Facebook th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gunderson: Only three full global mapping datasets exist worldwide
“There are three full global data sets in the world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gross: Complex big data and ML stacks will deploy in 10 minutes
“By the end of the year, your developers are going to be able to stand up a stack that does this in 10 minutes. Because you're just going to consume all these things as a service. And we're going to see a rapid and dramatic commoditization in the data nature of…”
Insight
Traditional Search Remains Essential For Mainstream Software Products
“Well, yes, but still there is a world out there where people are still using search and Google, and you can't just forget that we're here a little bit more in the bubble compared to the rest of the world. So if you're building for that rest of the world, searc…”
Opinion
Gross: Heroku's 10-Person Team Built the Equivalent of Google's Infrastructure
“And they did some of the work that they did in the size of that team. They did the equivalent of Kubernetes and what Google was doing with buildings full of people with 10 people in a room. Still, I don't appreciate, I don't know that Technical brilliance of t…”
Insight
Zinman: GTM messaging must target specific search intent over abstract platforms
“Nobody went on Google and searched for a flexible software to manage my business, right? Like, nobody does that. People search for project management, they search for CRM, so we had to change from, like, there's the company vision on one hand, but there's the …”
Opinion
Zima: Looker product development slowed after Google acquisition
“As we got acquired by Google it sort of was evident that the product was not building in the same way and that the team was excited to go do a lot of the really ambitious things that you know, we didn't have the opportunity to do anymore.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bedecarre: Google and Meta expect most employees in office a few days weekly
“Even companies as big as, you know, Google and Meta are expecting the vast majority of their employees to come at least a few days a week.”
Assertion Supported
Reese: Google found top teams excel via trust, not individual talent
“They cross-referenced a bunch to come up with the teams that performed the highest were not the smartest people in the room. They were not the best Positional players in their particular spot on the field. They were a team that had engendered this sense of tru…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eventbrite achieved Google-level hiring advantages by empowering its regional hubs
“The reward for giving them that trust and autonomy has been, we are the place to work for engineers in both Mendoza and Nashville full stop. We are the best place to work and it's known by everybody that advantage that Google used to have over us. In San Franc…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senkut: Google and Facebook struggled with global payment complexity for a decade
“But then I found out that even companies like Google and Facebook were having challenges, 1015 years after their founding in certain countries in the world, dealing with complexity.”
Insight
Beri: Big data is often useless to enterprises lacking tech talent
“So having this amount of data while maybe useful for Facebook and Google and maybe not useful for us In that context is definitely not useful in many cases for an enterprise because they don't have, if you're an enterprise, and I'm talking about enterprise, wh…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tunguz: Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will dominate foundational AI APIs
“Google, Microsoft, Amazon, they will be releasing the APIs that lots of companies will be building on, competing with them. You may want to compete with them, but we will likely not invest in that because it's a very challenging go to market strategy.”
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Google released a zero-shot translation model for unseen languages
“And Google released a machine translation algorithm that will translate from English to any other language even if it's never seen that language before.”
Assertion Contradicted
Tunguz: Google's WaveNet generates speech indistinguishable from human voices
“Google has a product called WaveNet. It's a computer that speaks so well that no human can tell it's a computer.”
Assertion Supported
Kennedy: Google Cloud tripled its $12B revenue run rate in five years
“I'm actually, it's my fifth year at Google, and I think when we started, we were at a twelve billion run rate, and now she said it's more than tripled”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google's G Suite product team resisted adding page numbers for years
“I remember, I don't know if you remember this, it took like an act of Congress to get Product to build page numbers into the G Suite portfolio. For years, no, we don't need page numbers. And we just think people don't use those anymore.”
Disclosure
G2 Plans Shift Toward ChatGPT-Style Personalized Software Recommendations
“Ultimately for us, we want to make it a more Google-like experience, and shame on me saying what everyone's been talking about the last couple of months, chat GPT type experience, where you're really looking at
What is best for me?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Building 79 features for PayPal unlocked Google and Amazon sales
“Luckily, Alfonso decided to take the UX researcher persona, which was the PayPal option, and, you know, built, I believe, 79 of those features, and that enabled the team to go and sell the same proposition to people like Google, Facebook, Amazon, eBay.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Bedecarre: Big tech leased 18.4M square feet of office space during pandemic
“Our data shows 18.4 million square feet of leases by big tech, Amazon, you know Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Microsoft, et cetera. That's 312 football fields of offices in the US for office.”
Assertion Supported
Snowflake raised $1B+ to fight Amazon and Google on price
“There was a similar company called Snowflake Computing. So they took a route of two by raising one billion dollar plus.”
Disclosure
Big Tech cloud offerings wrecked Treasure Data's SaaS metrics
“We observed all of the important SAS KPIs were suddenly about to go wrong.”
Assertion Supported
Lawson: Domino's stock outperformed Google, Amazon, and Facebook over the past decade
“The Domino's stock since in the last decade has outperformed like Google and Amazon and like Facebook.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deeter: Voice accounts for 20% of Google and 25% of Bing searches
“20% of searches in the Google, ah, engine are through voice today. 25% for Microsoft Bing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Okta's first enterprise customer only integrated Salesforce and Google
“I remember the first customer we had was, there were two apps. There was Salesforce and Google.”