The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,271 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 46 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bryan Johnson: Cardiovascular Capacity Ranks in Top 1.5% of 18-Year-Olds
“My cardiovascular capacity is in the top 1.5% of 18 year olds.”
Johnson: Eating dinner at 5 PM halves deep and REM sleep
“When I eat my last meal of the day, I have all my digestion finished. So when I go to bed, my resting heart rate is around 46 beats per minute. And if it's a 46, I'm going to have a perfect night's sleep. If I eat at five PM or six PM, then my resting heart ra…”
Mackey: Defeated four internal coup attempts across Whole Foods history
“I count four different coup attempts that occurred over the history of the company that I was able to beat back.”
Mackey: Clear grocery health ratings will drive away shoppers or get diluted
“What they would do is they'd dumb it down so that a lot of stuff that you think is red now would all of a sudden be green. And the, It's like, because most of the food that we're selling in supermarkets is not good for people. And if you start telling the trut…”
Halligan predicts inbound traffic will shift from Google to ChatGPT
“I think over the next five years, that's going to change a lot. I think Google's going to have to change a lot, and I think people are going to spend more and more of their time inside ChatGPT, and they're all ChatGPT's competitors.”
Halligan: AI means billion-dollar companies won't need 500-person marketing teams
“I think you're going to see a lot more small, big companies, and you're going to be able to get a lot more done with a lot less people. I don't think in a billion dollar company, you're going to need three, four, 500 person marketing organizations.”
Doucleff: SF parents give 120 verbal inputs hourly versus 2-3 traditionally
“In places where children have autonomy, parents give children, like, two to three verbal inputs in an hour. And I've done it on myself, I've done it with parents in San Francisco, and we are talking about, like, a 120 verbal inputs per hour.”
Exercise and Dancing Outperform Psychotherapy for Treating Mild to Moderate Depression
“And the reason is, is they've measured things. You know what better for mood, for mild to moderate depression than psychotherapy or antidepressants? Dancing. Yeah. Exercise. Dancing.”
School Psychology Associations Stayed Silent on Foreseeable Lockdown Damage to Children
“The school counselors association, school psychologists association, none of these organizations had anything to say about the foreseeable damage that was going to happen to kids.”
Smokers With High Omega-3 Match Life Expectancy of Low Omega-3 Non-Smokers
“Smokers with a high omega-three index, they have the same life expectancy as non-smokers with a low omega-three index.”
Patrick: Pesticides like paraquat induce Parkinson's symptoms by disrupting mitochondria
“And those are chemicals that actually cause, we use them. Scientists use them. I've used it myself in the lab to induce Parkinson-like symptoms in animals because it disrupts your mitochondria, which are the, they're little organelles inside of almost all of y…”
Folate Deficiency Causes More DNA Damage Than Consuming Pesticides
“So folate, again, we have to get from our diet, and if we don't get enough folate, it actually causes damage to our DNA much more than eating a pesticide would, because folate is required to make new DNA.”
Dr. Rhonda Patrick: Minimum protein needed to prevent muscle catabolism is 1.2g/kg
“It turns out using new techniques that are more sensitive that in order to just prevent your body from like pulling from, you know, your skeletal muscle to get amino acids, the minimum amount of protein needed to take in is actually 1.2”
Using a Sauna Four to Seven Times Weekly Cuts Mortality by 40%
“People that use the sauna, for example, two to three times a week have a 24% lower all cause mortality compared to people that only use it one time a week. But people that use it four to seven times a week have a 40% lower all cause mortality compared to peopl…”
Patrick: Running Matches Antidepressant Efficacy of SSRIs
“It's undeniable that doing aerobic exercise, like they've compared running to classical antidepressants like SSRI, so serotonin reuptake inhibitors, right? The, in terms of the antidepressant effects, it's like the same only the running has all the other benef…”
Three Minutes of Vigorous Exercise Thrice Weekly Cuts Mortality by 50%
“I mean, there's studies showing that people just doing one to three minutes of like getting their heart rate up to 80% max heart rate for like one to one to three minutes, you know, three times a week. Is associated with, like, a 50% reduction in all-cause mor…”
Johnson: Five core health habits yield an average life expectancy of 92
“By doing these five things, you could achieve a life expectancy of 92. So one don't smoke. Two is exercise six hours a week. And that's a combination of strength and flexibility and cardiovascular. Three is eat a blueprint like diet or like Mediterranean diet.…”
Gaynor: Zero percent interest rates will not return for a long time
“But I think that the environment we've just lived through of essentially zero percent rates, that's just weird. There's no fundamental justification for that. And I think we'll look back on it as a, as just a very unusual episode, but we'll be looking back on …”
Valiante: Tiger Woods is the only golfer in history who played better with a lead
“One of the things about Tiger Woods that's so remarkable is, is, He's the only golfer, and I mean this, in the history of the game, who's ever played better with a lead.”
Kobe Bryant created 'Black Mamba' alter ego during 2003 Colorado legal crisis
“We came together during the time of him going through the allegations of sexual assault in in Colorado. That's why, that's where we built the Black Mamba from was in that moment. Cause he felt like he was losing his edge.”
Valiante: Tiger Woods is the only golfer in history who played better with a lead
“He's the only golfer, and I mean this, in the history of the game who's ever played better with a lead.”
Rey Flemings: NY State wired firm $45.9M for ventilators, prompting FBI call
“We got a wire from the state of New York for 45.9 million dollars and a phone call from the FBI.”
Balcetis: Higher BMI individuals visually perceive distances as farther
“And we found that people who have a higher waist to hip ratio or a higher BMI see distances as farther than people who have a lower waist to hip ratio or lower BMI. Those distances literally look farther to people that for whom it might be harder to make it to…”
Stalk: Family companies underperform in upturns but outperform public peers in downturns
“The family companies were not as high performing on profitability in the up turns of the market, but nor were they as poor performing as public companies in the downturns.”
1980s Japanese Factory Edge Derived From Low Overhead, Not Culture
“And what was really interesting that this isn't in the early 19 eighties, people attributed the Japanese productivity advantage to their culture and to the worker management relations. And if I look what we did, I looked into the numbers, all the productivity …”
A Two-Week Supply Chain Has One-Eighth the Variability of Eight Weeks
“If you take two supply chains One that has an eight week time and one that has a Two-week time. The variability of the output at the one that's two weeks will be about one-eighth variability of the other.”
Karp: Over 90% of non-organic US wheat contains traces of glyphosate
“I don't remember the exact number, but it's in the high nineties percent. Might be 99%, might be 97%. Of the US wheat crop that's not organic has traces of glyphosate, which is Monsanto's herbicide also called Roundup.”
Karp: European wheat has lower gluten and is less inflammatory than US wheat
“So in Europe, the glyphosate's banned, and the gluten levels are much lower, and the strains of wheat that they typically use
Are typically a lot less inflammatory than the ones that they use over here.”
Karp: Daily Harvest's foodborne illness outbreak caused organ removals in consumers
“Daily Harvest had a foodborne illness issue where a bunch of people had to have their organs removed.”
Air Force bias favors human pilots over superior combat drones
“It's been true for a long time that humans are the weakest part of a fighter jet. You should use drones. You should totally use drones. But the Air Force, which is composed entirely of pilots or former pilots, hated that idea. Yeah. But drones are here to stay…”
The world will inevitably experience a major bioterrorism event
“So I think we'll see a bioterrorism event someday.”
Global temperatures will rise for a century even if emissions stop
“It turns out if you stopped all emissions on day one, the climate will continue to drift, drift upwards for about a hundred years. I have written a bunch of papers on global warming. I've done this calculation. Other people have done this calculation. You know…”
Dr. Lembke: Ambien Adds Only 15 Minutes of Sleep by Inducing Amnesia
“The truth is that Ambien only gives you about 15 more minutes of sleep, which is surprising, right? Because people feel like I slept so much more deeply. What it really does is it makes you amnestic for the periods of awakening. So it doesn't actually have you…”
Sinclair: Sirtuin Gene Therapy Extends Mouse Lifespan in Lab Studies
“And there are seven of these epigenetic regulators, the things that prevent the scratches, and we can turn them on
With gene therapy.
In mice, we do this, and if you do it in the brain of a mouse, they'll live longer.
Do it in the body, they can live longer.”
Sinclair: Time-Restricted Feeding Extended Mouse Lifespan by 30% Regardless of Diet
“And there's a very famous study that was done by a colleague of mine, Rafael de Cabo at the NIH in Bethesda, and he made three different types of diets for mice.
One that had a lot of protein, the other had carbs, the other had fat, and he thought he would fin…”
Lütke: Global polling shows people are personally thriving while assuming society suffers
“What you get back everywhere in the world is, like, I'm doing great. Everyone's anxiety is based on their understanding of everyone else. Which everyone else literally disagrees with. Like, so, we all think everyone else is doing bad, and everything else is ge…”
Lütke: Charging for Shopify's best features would diminish the company over 10 years
“I think Shopify All In, like, over the next 10 years, we would be a very diminished company for not giving our best feature, like, to everyone to make it, like, a fundamental, like You know, like, flag in the ground about, hey, you come to Shopify because we w…”
Hoffman: LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner initially found co-founder Alan Blue disruptive
“One of the things that Jeff came to me and said, hey, I'm finding your co-founder, Alan Blue, to be disruptive. He's not fitting in the scheme in which I'm setting up. And, you know, it's up to me to scale.”
Klein: Research shows group brainstorming fails to yield more innovative ideas
“The research on like brainstorming, we're all brainstorming together. The research shows that brainstorming does not produce more ideas and more innovative ideas.”
Shah: 80% to 85% of Indian retail investors come from merchant communities
“I would go to the extent of saying that 80, 85% of people who are having more than 200 dollars of investment in any of these assets are people from this community.”
Shah: Future SaaS companies will offer free software and monetize via fintech
“I believe the future of SaaS companies is going to be that where the next SaaS company will just say, oh, just use our tool for free. But by the way, we'll charge you and cross sell you some lending, some loans, some technology, some value added services which…”
Shah: Less than 6% of urban Indian women have independent income
“Less than six percent of urban Indian women have financial income of their own.”
Shah: No SaaS company makes over $10M ARR from Indian businesses
“I wouldn't be able to find one company that makes more than 10 dollars, ten million dollars annual revenue by selling software to Indian businesses.”
Shah is the only Indian unicorn founder with a humanities background
“India has hundred unicorns. I would go on to say that I'm the only founder in the hundred unicorns, which has a humanities background. Everybody else is STEM.”
Shah: Amazon's India GMV matches a small European nation
“The total GMV that Amazon would make in India would easily be done by a small European nation after being here for like maybe seven, eight years that they have spent over here because the people who can spend just do not exist.”
Shah: Several Indian wedding photographers generate over $10M in revenue
“There are enough wedding photographers, I know, who make more than ten million dollars of revenue.”